According to a report by Taiwan’s Economic Daily, Google has notified Chromebook manufacturers to start collecting licensing fees from July 1st, prompting laptop brands to accelerate shipments ahead of schedule. As a result of this “urgent order,” Taiwan’s contract manufacturers achieved better-than-expected results in Q2.

In a press release dated July 3rd, TrendForce noted that Google’s formal imposition of Chromebook licensing fees is bound to affect the competitiveness of Chromebooks in the entry-level market. However, laptop brands, in order to avoid incurring additional costs due to licensing fees, are actively advancing Chromebook shipments regardless of having a clear grasp of end-demand orders. This enthusiasm has driven overall Chromebook shipment performance in the second quarter.

TrendForce mentioned that after a seven-quarter adjustment period, education tender orders from North America, Indonesia, and India have begun to emerge for Chromebooks. Additionally, with assistance from the United Nations Children’s Fund, Ukraine’s educational reconstruction needs have also gradually emerged. Nevertheless, due to the off-peak season for Chromebooks in the latter half of the year and the impact of licensing fees, demand is expected to remain subdued compared to the first half.

Furthermore, according to TrendForce’s insights, following Google’s formal initiation of licensing fees, the ODM production costs for consumer-grade Chromebooks have risen by $6 to $8, while business-grade laptops have experienced an increase of $7 to $12. However, considering the stagnation in end-demand this year, brand manufacturers have yet to make any adjustments to end-user pricing.

(Photo credit: Google)

Intel Corporation today announced that it has mutually agreed with Tower Semiconductor to terminate its previously disclosed agreement  to acquire Tower due to the inability to obtain in a timely manner the regulatory approvals required under the merger agreement, dated Feb. 15, 2022. In accordance with the terms of the merger agreement and in connection with its termination, Intel will pay a termination fee of $353 million to Tower.

In response to this development, TrendForce provides the following analysis:

As previously mentioned by TrendForce, Intel’s active entry into the semiconductor foundry market has presented challenges. These include:

Diversification of Manufacturing Expertise: Intel, historically focused on manufacturing CPUs, GPUs, FPGAs, and peripheral I/O chips, lacks the specialized fabrication processes possessed by other foundries. The success of acquiring Tower to expand its product line and market presence remains crucial.

Operational Segmentation: Apart from financial divisions, the division of physical facilities and actual production capacity must be strategically managed. Successfully emulating models like AMD/GlobalFoundries or Samsung LSI/Samsung Foundry, where there is a clear distinction between foundry and client, is essential. Simultaneously, Intel faces challenges in preventing orders from its significant client, the Intel Design Department, from flowing outward.

The official termination of the Tower acquisition plan introduces greater uncertainties and challenges for Intel in the competitive foundry market. In an industry marked by heightened competition, having dominance in specialized process technologies and diversified production lines is pivotal for sustaining profitability amid industry downturns. Without the assistance of Tower’s established specialized processes, Intel’s strategic approach and technology development in the foundry business will be worth monitoring.

(Photo credit: Intel)

According to a report from Ijiwei, a China-based media, industry insiders have revealed that Taiwanese display driver IC (DDI) suppliers are considering shifting their chip manufacturing to China due to cost considerations, as the prices offered by chip foundries there are significantly lower than those in Taiwan.

Almost all DDI suppliers are feeling substantial pressure to reduce the prices of display driver chips in the latter half of 2023. Industry sources state that while the touch and display driver integration (TDDI) chips for smartphone screens have nearly reached cost parity, the prolonged slump in the smartphone market has led display panel customers to shift the pressure upstream along the supply chain.

The downward pricing pressure on display driver chips isn’t confined to the smartphone sector alone. Medium and large panel customers in segments like TVs and automotive displays are also requesting more substantial discounts from DDI manufacturers. However, the pressure from these sectors is somewhat less pronounced than that from the smartphone sector.

(Photo credit: Transsion)

DRAM Spot Market:

The spot market has shown no demand turnaround this week, so prices there are stagnant. Unlike the situation in the contract market, suppliers are not collectively attempting to moderate the price decline in the spot market due to the lack of a notable rebound in the sales of consumer electronics. Also, high inventories held by module houses are keeping spot prices on a downward trajectory. On the whole, spot prices of DDR4 and DDR5 products continue to show daily drops. The average spot price of the mainstream chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) fell by 0.07% from US$1.461 last week to US$1.460 this week.

NAND Flash Spot Market:

The spot market is seen with a recovery of purchase willingness this week due to the power outage at SK hynix, though TrendForce’s survey confirms that the particular incident has not yielded any impact towards market supply. Low-priced transactions no longer exist among spot prices of NAND Flash after suppliers’ significant drop of production in 2H23, and the declination that lasted for several consecutive weeks is now halted. 512Gb TLC wafer spots have risen by 0.28% this week, arriving at US$1.440.

According to a report by Taiwan’s Commercial Times, JPMorgan’s latest analysis reveals that AI demand will remain robust in the second half of the year. Encouragingly, TSMC’s CoWoS capacity expansion progress is set to exceed expectations, with production capacity projected to reach 28,000 to 30,000 wafers per month by the end of next year.

The trajectory of CoWoS capacity expansion is anticipated to accelerate notably in the latter half of 2024. This trend isn’t limited to TSMC alone; other players outside the TSMC are also actively expanding their CoWoS-like production capabilities to meet the soaring demands of AI applications.

Gokul Hariharan, Head of Research for JPMorgan Taiwan, highlighted that industry surveys indicate strong and unabated AI demand in the latter half of the year. Shortages amounting to 20% to 30% are observed with CoWoS capacity being a key bottleneck and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) also facing supply shortages.

JPMorgan’s estimates indicate that Nvidia will account for 60% of the overall CoWoS demand in 2023. TSMC is expected to produce around 1.8 to 1.9 million sets of H100 chips, followed by significant demand from Broadcom, AWS’ Inferentia chips, and Xilinx. Looking ahead to 2024, TSMC’s continuous capacity expansion is projected to supply Nvidia with approximately 4.1 to 4.2 million sets of H100 chips.

Apart from TSMC’s proactive expansion of CoWoS capacity, Hariharan predicts that other assembly and test facilities are also accelerating their expansion of CoWoS-like capacities.

For instance, UMC is preparing to have a monthly capacity of 5,000 to 6,000 wafers for the interposer layer by the latter half of 2024. Amkor is expected to provide a certain capacity for chip-on-wafer stacking technology, and ASE Group will offer chip-on-substrate bonding capacity. However, these additional capacities might face challenges in ramping up production for the latest products like H100, potentially focusing more on older-generation products like A100 and A800.

(Photo credit: TSMC)