Recently, a report by People’s Daily notes that according to data released by China’s customs authorities, in the first eight months of this year, China’s integrated circuit (IC) exports amounted to RMB 736.04 billion, an increase of 24.8%. IC exports have surpassed automotive exports (which totaled RMB 540.84 billion during the same period), making ICs a major category in China’s export products, according to the report.

The data suggests that China’s IC exports are gradually recovering from downward pressure and regaining momentum.

Looking at a longer time frame, the report suggests that China’s IC export value has grown more than 1.5 times over the past decade. In 2023, China’s IC export volume and value reached 2,678 billion units and RMB 956.77 billion, respectively, representing increases of 74.5% and 155.9% compared to 2014, when the figures were 1,535 billion units and RMB 956.77 billion.

From 2022 to 2023, the global chip industry experienced a downturn, with the market’s main focus shifting from “chip shortages” to “inventory reduction,” the report notes. According to a report by the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), global semiconductor sales in 2023 totaled USD 526.8 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 8.2%. Affected by this, China’s IC export growth rate dropped to 3.5% in 2022 and -5% in 2023, ending five consecutive years of double-digit growth.

However, since the beginning of 2024, the situation has started to improve, the report says. In August, China’s IC exports reached RMB 95.18 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.2%. The export value has seen year-on-year growth for 10 consecutive months.

ICs are considered a typical cyclical industry, with cycles averaging every four to five years. Analysts cited by the report believe that the industry is currently emerging from the shadow of recession. Innovations in AI applications, such as ChatGPT, along with the trends of automotive electrification and intelligence, will continue to drive the stabilization and upward trajectory of the IC industry.

According to a Money DJ report, Japan’s semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales continued to surge, with August sales jumping 20%, marking five consecutive months of double-digit growth and reaching the fifth-highest level on record. Sales for the January-August period hit an all-time high.

Citing data from the Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan (SEAJ) released on the 25th, Money DJ reported that Japan’s chip equipment sales in August 2024 (three-month moving average, including exports) reached ¥351.06 billion, a 22% year-on-year increase. This marks the eighth consecutive month of growth and the fifth straight month of double-digit gains. Monthly sales surpassed ¥300 billion for the tenth consecutive month, the fifth-highest since records began in 1986.

The top four figures were ¥400.9 billion in May 2024, ¥389.1 billion in April 2024, ¥380.9 billion in September 2022, and ¥365.6 billion in March 2024.

For the January-August 2024 period, Japan’s chip equipment sales totaled ¥2.831 trillion, up 17.3% year-on-year, surpassing the ¥2.482 trillion recorded in 2022 and setting a new historical high.

Japan’s global market share in semiconductor equipment sales stands at 30%, second only to the U.S.

(Photo credit: TEL)

Is the winter really coming for the memory sector? Despite an earlier report by Morgan Stanley warning of an AI bubble, U.S. memory giant Micron reveals a financial guidance that beats market expectations, projecting its fiscal first-quarter revenue to reach USD 8.7 billion, higher than an average analyst estimate of USD 8.32 billion, Bloomberg notes.

Meanwhile, Micron expects a significant increase in gross margin to around 39.5%, and an adjusted earnings of USD 1.74 per share, exceeding analysts’ estimates of USD 1.65, according to Reuters.

The growth momentum will mainly rely on the soaring demand for HBM, driven by AI. Earlier in June, Micron noted that its HBM chips have been fully booked for 2024 and 2025.

In terms of the outlook for the overall HBM market, Micron’s view evidently contradicts with that of Morgan Stanley, as it eyes the HBM total available market (TAM) to grow from approximately USD 4 billion in 2023 to over USD 25 billion in 2025.

And the company is making strides in its progress in HBM in the following year. According to its press release, Micron expects its HBM, high-capacity D5 and LP5 solutions, and data center SSD products to deliver multiple billions of dollars in revenue in fiscal 2025.

The U.S. memory giant also expects its HBM market share to commensurate with the company’s overall DRAM market share sometime in 2025.

According to TrendForce, Micron ranked third in DRAM revenue in Q2, 2024, with a market share of 19.6%, after Samsung’s 42.9% and SK hynix’s 34.5%, respectively.

Regarding the latest development on HBM, after its 8-hi HBM3E entered mass production in February, Micron confirms that it has started shipments of production-capable HBM3E 12-hi 36GB units to key industry partners to enable qualifications across the AI ecosystem, stating that its HBM3E 12-hi 36GB delivers 20% lower power consumption than its competitors’ HBM3E 8-hi 24GB solutions while providing 50% higher DRAM capacity.

The company expects to ramp its 12-hi HBM3E in early 2025 and increase the 12-hi mix in the overall shipments throughout the year.

According to a previous report by Tom’s Hardware, the new products are reportedly designed for cutting-edge processors used in AI and high-performance computing (HPC) workloads, including NVIDIA’s H200 and B100/B200 GPUs.

Micron delivered a strong finish to fiscal year 2024, with fiscal Q4 revenue at the high end of its guidance range and gross margins and earnings per share (EPS) above the high end of its guidance ranges.

In fiscal Q4, Micron’s revenue jumped 93% YoY to USD 7.75 billion. Its earnings per share (EPS) came in at USD 1.18, a notable turnaround from the loss of USD 1.07 per share in the same period of 2023. In addition, it achieved record-high revenues in NAND and in its storage business unit.

Micron’s fiscal 2024 revenue grew over 60%, with company gross margins expanding by over 30 percentage points and achieved revenue records in data center and in automotive, according to its press release.

Read more

• [News] Micron’s 12-Hi HBM3e Ready for Production, Targeting NVIDIA’s H200 and B100/ B200 GPUs
• [News] Morgan Stanley Predicts ‘DRAM Winter,’ But TrendForce Remains Less Pessimistic

(Photo credit: Micron)

The U.S. Consumer Confidence Index for September dropped sharply to 98.7 from 105.6 in the previous month, a decline of 6.5%, marking the largest decline since August 2021, according to data released by the U.S. Conference Board on September 24.

According to the report, the decline primarily reflects concerns among consumers regarding the outlook for the U.S. labor market. The percentage of consumers who believe jobs are currently hard to get increased to 18.3% (from 16.8%), while those expecting fewer job in the future rose to 18.3% (from 17%).

Despite the unemployment rate remaining at historic lows and layoffs being relatively limited, the proportion of consumers who think the economy has already entered a recession increased slightly compared to the previous month.

Inflation remains a critical factor influencing consumer confidence. Although inflation is steadily returning to the Federal Reserve’s target range, the report indicated that consumers’ inflation expectations for the next 12 months rose to 5.2% (from 5.0%). However, the percentage of consumers expecting inflation to decrease saw a slight increase.

Additionally, after the stock market’s volatility in August, the proportion of consumers expecting stock prices to fall over the next year declined to 25% (from 26.7%).

On the family’s financial situation, the survey revealed that consumer purchasing plans have shown a divided trend. There has been a slowdown in plans to purchase electronics, particularly smartphones and laptops/desktops. However, purchasing plans for homes and new vehicles have improved slightly, likely reflecting the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cuts.

Read more at Datatrack

Earlier this month, reports emerged that Samsung Electronics was cutting up to 30% of its overseas workforce, with Business Korea noting issues with its 2nm yield and the company’s decision to pull staff from its Taylor plant. Now, Digital Daily reports that Samsung has further delayed construction and orders for its Pyeongtaek Phase 4 (P4) facility and the second foundry plant in Taylor, Texas.

Citing semiconductor industry sources, Digital Daily revealed that Samsung recently notified key suppliers about the postponement of equipment and infrastructure orders for both facilities. While Samsung has not officially confirmed the construction timeline, insiders say both plants were originally slated to break ground in the second half of this year. The latest notifications, however, confirm delays.

Market speculation surrounding these projects has been rife. Digital Daily reported that some predict part of the P4 line, initially intended for foundry production, might be converted into memory production. Others suggest the expansion could be delayed altogether due to the downturn in memory semiconductor demand.

According to Digital Daily, the Pyeongtaek P4 line—designed as the world’s largest semiconductor production facility—was expected to handle both memory and foundry production. The facility is divided into four phases, with the first already operational. However, construction on phases 2-4, initially scheduled for this year, has been postponed, delaying related equipment and infrastructure orders as well.

Samsung’s foundry project in Taylor, Texas, is facing a similar situation. The company had planned to invest $44 billion to build two semiconductor plants and an advanced packaging R&D center. Under the CHIPS Act, Samsung was set to receive $6.4 billion in U.S. government subsidies.

Although construction on the first plant is underway after multiple delays, with completion targeted for 2026 and advanced sub-5nm processes in development, Digital Daily reported that the start of construction for the second plant, originally expected this year, has been postponed. As a result, related orders have also been delayed.

As reported by Digital Daily, a representative from Samsung Electronics stated that the company is unable to provide an official update on its production line operations, but it may adjust plant construction plans in response to fluctuations in demand.

(Photo credit: Samsung)