Huawei’s Mate XT, being the world’s first tri-fold smartphone, has created a buzz as it got over 4 million preorders even before the formal launch. However, the tech giant might not enjoy the monopoly for long. Citing a recent patent filing published by China’s State Intellectual Property Office, a report by Gizmochina notes that Xiaomi is also working on the technology.

Earlier In August, Weibo tipster “Smart Pikachu” also brought up Xiaomi’s progress on this new design, while rumors suggest that Xiaomi could release the tri-fold phone as early as 2025.

Gizmochina suggests that though the patent itself does not disclose the model name, it does reveal a design featuring a Z-shaped fold, which is similar to that of Huawei Mate XT.

To elaborate, the report notes that the model is equipped with a horizontally positioned rear camera island, which is narrower than that of the Xiaomi Mix Fold 4. The image shown in the patent application also suggests that the tri-fold phone will feature three rear cameras, compared to the four found on the Mix Fold 4 model.

According to Gizmochina, Xiaomi’s tri-fold device may be slightly thicker than the Huawei Mate XT, which has a 12.8mm thickness when folded. However, there’s still time for Xiaomi to refine the design, the report notes.

It is interesting to note that this isn’t the first time the market heard about Xiaomi’s ambition on a tri-fold phone, as related patents could be dated back to 2019, the report indicates. However, the latest patent features a completely new design with a dual inward folding mechanism, suggesting that Xiaomi has been exploring various possibilities and folding techniques for some time.

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• [News] Huawei’s Tri-Fold Phone Revealed Hours after Apple, with Pre-Orders Reportedly Exceeding 4 Million
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(Photo credit: Huawei)

On September 9, 2024, China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) released the “Guiding Catalog for the Promotion and Application of Major Technical Equipment (2024 Edition),” listing 286 domestically manufactured equipment items. Among these, the KrF and ArF lithography machine, categorized under electronic specialty equipment, have attracted significant market attention.

According to TrendForce’s analysis, the catalog aims to promote the adoption of domestic equipment in key manufacturing sectors. This is achieved through subsidies for domestic equipment to lower the threshold for companies adopting these tools. The catalog will be updated every 2-3 years to align with the latest policy and industry developments.

With the Netherlands expanding its restrictions on ASML’s exposure equipment exports, the disclosure of two domestic lithography machines by China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology carries symbolic significance. The KrF Lithography Machine (model 2.1.5) is designed for 12-inch wafers, with a working wavelength of 248nm, resolution ≤ 110nm, and overlay accuracy ≤ 25nm. The ArF Lithography Machine (model 2.1.6) is also for 12-inch wafers, with a working wavelength of 193nm, resolution ≤ 65nm, and overlay accuracy ≤ 8nm. Both machines fall under the category of deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography equipment.

Despite initial market speculation that the ArF lithography machine might be suitable for 8nm processes, TrendForce’s latest market analysis suggests otherwise. The machine’s overlay accuracy of ≤ 8nm is inadequate for advanced processes, which require ≤ 3nm for 10nm processes and ≤ 2nm for 7nm processes. Additionally, for advanced processes, the resolution must be ≤ 38nm, while this machine’s resolution is ≤ 65nm, making it challenging to handle even 40nm processes.

Although the ArF lithography machine could potentially be used for 55nm or more advanced processes with multiple exposures, its insufficient overlay accuracy would lead to unmanageable yield issues, significantly impacting production efficiency.

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• [News] Breakthrough in China’s Domestic DUV Equipment to 8nm? Experts Call It a Misunderstanding
• [News] China’s DUV Breakthrough: Capable of Producing 8-Nanometer Chips

(Photo credit: SMIC)

In early September, rumors have it that TSMC’s first US fab in Arizona began producing engineering wafers using the 4nm process in April, with yields reportedly comparable to those manufactured in its Southern Taiwan Science Park facility. Now here’s the latest update: the fab has started trial production for Apple’s A16 chip, according to a report by Tim Culpan at substack, a technology columnist.

Tim Culpan notes that the mobile processors are manufactured with TSMC’s 5nm, or the so-called N4P node, which is the same as the node used in Taiwan to manufacture A16. The N4P node is actually a member of the 5nm family, as it is regarded as an enhanced version of 5nm, the report explains.

It is worth noting that Apple’s A16 SoC, though launched two years ago with iPhone 14 Pro, is considered as one of the most advanced mobile chips for the company, as the chip is also be seen in iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Plus models. Culpan indicates that the move marks a milestone that instead of beginning with some less critical chips, Apple and TSMC intend to aim high from the start.

According to Culpan, Apple’s A16 is currently being trial-produced at TSMC Arizona’s “Fab 21” Phase 1 facility, with a small production volume. However, once the second stage of the Phase 1 fab is completed, the output will significantly increase.

TSMC plans to build three plants in Arizona, each with cleanroom spaces twice the size of typical logic fabs in the industry. The first fab is expected to begin mass production in the first half of 2025.

TSMC’s second fab in Arizona will use 2nm process technology to meet strong AI-related demand, with production expected to begin in 2028. The third fab will employ 2nm or even more advanced process.

However, the situation for Samsung’s investment in the U.S. would be a different story. A previous report from Korean media outlet Business Korea noted that persistent issues with its 2nm yield rate have led Samsung to decide to withdraw personnel from its Taylor, Texas plant, signaling another setback for its advanced wafer foundry business.

As for Intel, which proactively pursues the support of the U.S. government, it is holding steadfast on its investments in the country despite recent announcements to spin-off its foundry business and delaying the projects in Germany and Poland for two years.

Intel plans to invest USD 100 billion over the next five years in new fabs and expansions across Arizona, New Mexico, Ohio, and Oregon, creating 10,000 manufacturing jobs and 20,000 construction jobs.

Read more

• [News] Showing Positive Progress, TSMC’s Arizona Fab Reportedly Reaches Production Yields on Par with Taiwan
• [News] TSMC Receives USD 6.6 Billion for Chipmaking from the US Government, Commits to Constructing Third Fab

(Photo credit: Apple)

The Federal Reserve held its FOMC meeting on September 18, announcing a 50-basis point cut to the federal funds rate, lowering it to a range of 4.75% to 5%. In its post-meeting statement, the Fed noted that the labor market had shifted from moderate growth to a slowdown, and its confidence in inflation returning to the target range had strengthened. Given the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook and the balance of risks, the Fed decided to initiate a rate-cutting cycle, lowering rates by 50 basis points to support the U.S. job market.

In its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the Fed slightly revised down its 2024 economic growth forecast from 2.1% to 2.0%. It also raised the unemployment rate forecast from 4.0% to 4.4%, with unemployment expected to peak in 2025. Core inflation is projected to rise from 2.6% in June to 2.8%, with expectations for it to fall back to the target range by 2026.

The median of the Fed’s dot plot indicates that, assuming the economy develops as expected, interest rates will drop to 4.25% to 4.5% in 2024 (a total of 4 rate cuts) and to 3.25% to 3.5% in 2025 (another 4 rate cuts), with the long-term neutral rate projected to be between 2.75% and 3% (2 more cuts).

Overall, through this decision and economic forecast, the Fed aims to communicate to the market that while it acknowledges the weakening of the labor market, it remains committed to using appropriate rate cuts to support employment, while ensuring inflation stabilizes and economic growth continues.

Post-Meeting Press Conference Q&A Highlights

1. Labor Market

• Q: Historically, when the unemployment rate rises rapidly, it typically doesn’t stabilize quickly. However, the SEP data suggests that the unemployment rate will rise to 4.4% in 2024 and then stabilize. What is the mechanism behind this? What are the risks involved?
• A: Overall, the U.S. economy is growing steadily, inflation is gradually falling, and the labor market is returning to balance. The Fed’s goal is to maintain this status quo.
• Q: Over the past three months, the average monthly job gains were just over 100,000. Are you concerned about further deterioration in the labor market?
• A: This is mainly due to an increase in international migration, but the decline in job vacancies has also reduced overall job gains, which is the primary reason for the recent rise in the unemployment rate. Some FOMC members have considered the changes in the Beveridge Curve, noting that as job vacancies continue to fall, there may be a point where it directly converts to rising unemployment. We are likely approaching that point.

2. Inflation

• Q: With persistent housing inflation, is it still possible for overall inflation to return to 2%?
• A: Housing inflation has indeed been a drag on overall inflation. Although rental prices are falling slower than expected, as long as they remain low over the long term, it will eventually show in the overall inflation figures.

3. Interest Rate Adjustments

• Q: Recent labor market data has been significantly revised downward. Does this suggest that the Fed is behind in adjusting rates? Can we expect the Fed to maintain its current adjustment pace in the future?
• A: I do not believe the Fed is behind in adjusting rates. We have been taking timely, precautionary measures to respond to changes.
• Q: In the coming months, should we expect rate cuts of 25 bps or 50 bps?
• A: The SEP provides a reasonable reference, but the final rate adjustment will depend on economic performance. If the labor market weakens further, we may accelerate the rate cuts, and vice versa.

4. Balance Sheet Reduction

• Q: In 2019, the Fed halted its balance sheet reduction when it adjusted monetary policy. With this 50 bps rate cut, is there any indication that balance sheet reduction might stop as well?
• A: As of now, the Fed’s reserves remain sufficient. The balance sheet reduction has been primarily managed through the ON RRP (overnight reverse repurchase agreements). At this time, we are not considering halting the reduction. If rate cuts and balance sheet reduction are both seen as part of monetary policy normalization, then both can continue simultaneously for a period of time.

Comparison of the September and July FOMC Statements

ByteDance, the parent company of TikTok, is said to be collaborating with TSMC, eyeing for the mass production of two self-developed AI chips by 2026, according to reports by Economic Daily News and The Information.

ByteDance’s AI chips are expected to be made with TSMC’s 5nm node, which would be one generation behind the foundry giant’s most advanced process, the reports suggest, making the move comply with the U.S. export regulations to China. The chips are similar to NVIDIA’s next-generation flagship AI chip, Blackwell, which are manufactured with TSMC’s 4NP node.

Citing sources familiar with the matter, the reports note that the tech giant in China aims to reduce its reliance on NVIDIA for AI model development. Though the chips are still in the design phase and the plan is subject to change, ByteDance’s self-designed chips could save billions of dollars compared to purchasing NVIDIA’s products, according to the reports.

The Information estimates that ByteDance’s spending on developing generative AI models has been increasing, and it is rumored that the company has ordered over 200,000 NVIDIA H20 chips this year, costing it over USD 2 billion, with some orders still pending delivery.

In response to US export bans, NVIDIA launched AI chip H20, L20 and L2, specially designed for the Chinese market earlier this year. According to a previous report by Wccftech, H20 GPU has 41% fewer Cores and 28% lower performance versus H100. Still, the product is reportedly seeing strong demand for AI servers among Chinese Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) and enterprises, including Huawei and Tencent.

However, due to its lower computing power, Chinese companies need to purchase more H20 chips to build clusters with equivalent computing capacity, which raises costs, Economic Daily News notes.

According to TSMC’s financial report in the second quarter, North American clients contributed 65% of its total revenue. While China, the second-largest market, contributed 16% of its quarterly revenue, with a significant jump from 9% in the first quarter and 12% during the same period last year.

Read more

• [News] China Plans to Set at Least 50 AI Standards by 2026, from Language Models to Semiconductors
• [News] Broadcom Reportedly Developing 5nm AI Chip with ByteDance, Manufactured by TSMC

(Photo credit: ByteDance)