Recent comments from former U.S. President Donald Trump on protection fees have hit semiconductor stocks hard and brought TSMC back into the spotlight for investors.

As per a report from Barron’s, it’s suggested that America’s stance towards Taiwan is not the best diplomatic strategy. The following key figures highlight TSMC’s importance to both the U.S. and the global economy.

• 700 Billion

After Bloomberg published an exclusive interview with Trump, the Nasdaq Composite Index plummeted 2.8% on July 17th. Large semiconductor stocks, including TSMC and the seven major U.S. tech giants, collectively lost about USD 700 billion in market value overnight.

The report from Barron’s suggested that this phenomenon indicates that the market views TSMC not just as a foundry but also as a crucial supplier of key components for America’s largest and most important enterprises.

• 92%

According to the Semiconductor Industry Association, TSMC manufactures 92% of the world’s advanced semiconductors, while South Korea produces the remaining 8%.

Barron’s noted that though the U.S. aims to increase domestic production of advanced chips, targeting 20% of advanced chips to be produced locally by 2030,. However this will take some time to achieve.

• 33%

TSMC taks pride in itself that it is the world’s first dedicated semiconductor foundry. Namely, all chips produced by TSMC are supplied to semiconductor companies that do not manufacture their own chips. For companies like NVIDIA, AMD, Broadcom, Qualcomm, and others, TSMC is a major supplier.

Barron’s noted that approximately one-third of their chip manufacturing expenses go to TSMC. This has further underscored the significance of the company.

• 45%

NVIDIA and other companies purchase chips from TSMC and then resell them to other companies. According to Barron’s, Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, and Tesla contribute about 45% of NVIDIA’s sales. Although Apple currently doesn’t purchase many chips from NVIDIA, about 27% of Qualcomm’s sales and 17% of Broadcom’s sales come from Apple.

In theory, without TSMC, there would be no iPhone, AI servers, or other electronic products people rely on. For this reason, Tae Kim, a technology journalist at Barron’s, refers to the true risk of disruptions in TSMC’s operations as a “Global Depression.”

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(Photo credit: TSMC)

As TSMC and other major chip manufacturers compete for AI business opportunities, chip production capacity is unable to keep up with demand. Industry sources cited in a report from NIKKEI claimed that the slow expansion of high-end chip production capacity is due to different packaging and testing technologies used by various companies and calls for the industry to standardize as soon as possible.

Jim Hamajima, President of the Japan office of the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI), recently stated in an interview with NIKKEI that leading chip manufacturers like Intel and TSMC should adopt international standards for back-end processes to effectively and quickly increase production capacity.

Hamajima further noted that each company is trying to apply unique solutions in back-end processes, with TSMC and Intel using different technical standards, which leads to inefficiencies.

Semiconductor manufacturing is divided into two major parts: front-end and back-end processes. While the photolithography technology used in front-end processes widely adopts international standards set by SEMI, packaging and testing in back-end processes vary among manufacturers. For example, TSMC uses CoWoS technology for advanced packaging, while Samsung Electronics uses I-Cube technology.

In recent years, chip manufacturers have actively invested in the development of advanced packaging technologies, primarily because front-end processes face technical bottlenecks, making back-end processes the key to gaining a competitive edge.

Hamajima believes that the current state of back-end processes in the semiconductor industry is “Balkanized,” with each company adhering to its own technologies, leading to a fragmented industry. He warns that this issue will start to impact profit margins as more powerful chips are produced in the future.

Hamajima stated that if semiconductor manufacturers adopt standardized automated production technologies and material specifications, it will be easier to acquire manufacturing equipment and upstream material supplies when expanding production capacity.

Hamajima is a director of a recently launched consortium led by Intel and 14 Japanese companies to jointly develop automated systems for back-end processes. The collaborating companies include Japanese companies such as Omron, Yamaha Motor, Resonac, and Shin-Etsu Polymer, a subsidiary of Shin-Etsu Chemical Industry.

Hamajima noted that Japan, with its numerous automation equipment and semiconductor material suppliers, is an ideal location to test international standards for back-end processes.

He also acknowledged that currently, Intel is the only multinational chip manufacturer in the alliance, which might lead to the development of technical standards that favor Intel. However, he emphasized that the alliance welcomes other chip manufacturers to join, and the research outcomes will serve as a reference for future industry standard-setting.

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(Photo credit: TSMC)

Recently, after reporting a loss of USD 7 billion in its manufacturing business for 2023, Intel stated that its investment in France and Italy could not be realized for the time being, which is worth several billion euros and can potentially create thousands of jobs. Relevant investment plans for chip plants mentioned above may have been suspended.

Intel noted in a statement, “Investment in France has been paused,” citing “significant changes in economic and market conditions” since 2022.

The company had selected a location southwest of Paris as a new R&D center for artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing (HPC). The center is planned to open by the end of 2024 and will employ 450 people.

Intel added that the “scope” of the project is undergoing adjustment, and France remains a choice for Intel’s future R&D center.

Two years ago, Intel began negotiations with Italy on plans to invest up to EUR 4.5 billion to build a manufacturing plant in the country. This plant would create 1,500 jobs for Intel and 3,500 jobs for suppliers.

When it comes to the status of the Italian plant, Intel said it currently focused on its active manufacturing projects in Ireland, Germany, and Poland. However, Italy’s Minister of Business, Adolfo Urso, stated in March of this year that Intel had delayed its investment in Italy.

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(Photo credit: Intel)

According to sources cited in a report from Reuters, NVIDIA is said to be planning to design a new flagship AI chip tailored for the Chinese market, which will still comply with current U.S. export control regulations.

NVIDIA, the global AI chip giant, unveiled its Blackwell chip series in March this year, with mass production expected to start later this year. The B200 chip in this series boasts powerful performance, capable of completing chatbot response tasks at speeds up to 30 times faster than the previous generation.

The sources cited by Reuters further point out that NVIDIA will collaborate with China’s Inspur to launch and sell this chip, tentatively codenamed B20. Inspur is one of NVIDIA’s primary distribution partners in China.

Currently, NVIDIA’s spokesperson has declined to comment on this news, and Inspur has also not issued any statements.

The U.S. government, citing national security concerns, began strictly tightening controls on the export of advanced semiconductors to China in 2023. Since then, NVIDIA has released three chips specifically for the Chinese market.

Per a previous report from TechNews citing industry sources, it is also believed that the US will significantly escalate the trade war after the presidential election, intensifying export restrictions on China.

It is noteworthy that the US government previously announced the imposition or increase of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, semiconductors, lithium batteries, and other products, with the semiconductor tariff rate set to rise from 25% to 50% by 2025.  Meanwhile, for the future direction of the US, it can be inferred that chips manufactured in Taiwan and South Korea may also face tariffs.

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(Photo credit: NVIDIA)

According to a report from Tom’s Hardware, the U.S. is considering implementing new trade sanctions on China, looking to limit China’s access to advanced AI chip technology. This could result in a ban on NVIDIA’s HGX-H20 AI GPUs to China. If implemented, NVIDIA could potentially lose roughly USD 12 billion in revenue.

To comply with U.S. export regulations, NVIDIA introduced the HGX H20 GPU specifically for the Chinese market. Although it has reduced performance, it still offers powerful AI capabilities.

As per the report, the HGX H20 GPU features 296 INT8 TOPS/FP8 TFLOPS computational performance, 96 GB of HBM3 memory, and 4.0 TB/s memory bandwidth, making it competitive with the current entry-level AI chips on the market. Despite its downgraded performance, the HGX H20 outperforms Huawei’s self-developed Ascend 920 series AI chips in practical applications due to its better memory performance.

However, during the U.S. semiconductor export policy review in October, NVIDIA’s HGX H20 GPU might face a sales ban. The anticipated restrictions could take various forms, including product-specific bans, reduced computational power, or limited memory capacity.

Most Chinese AI companies have built their application ecosystems on NVIDIA’s CUDA computing platform, which makes switching to other platforms, like Huawei’s Ascend chips, both costly and time-consuming. Although the HGX H20 GPU’s computational performance is significantly lower than the H100, its full compatibility with NVIDIA’s CUDA computing platform makes it the preferred choice for many Chinese companies and applications, the report noted.

However, it is worth noting that despite the current export controls on China, Chinese companies still manage to acquire advanced NVIDIA GPU computing power for AI and high-performance computing through intermediaries and by renting cloud service servers from companies like Google and Microsoft. This is a primary reason which prompts the U.S. to tighten restrictions.

Additionally, the U.S. might extend export restrictions to other Asian countries, such as Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, and potentially overseas Chinese companies. However, due to the complexity of these measures, effective implementation poses significant challenges, according to the report.

TrendForce notes in April that the extension of export controls now includes not only the previously restricted AI chips from NVIDIA and AMD, such as the NVIDIA A100/H100, AMD MI250/300 series, NVIDIA A800, H800, L40, L40S, and RTX4090, but also their next-generation successors like NVIDIA’s H200, B100, B200, GB200, and AMD’s MI350 series.

In response, HPC manufacturers have quickly developed products that comply with the new TPP and PD standards, such as NVIDIA’s adjusted H20/L20/L2, which remain eligible for export.

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(Photo credit: NVIDIA)