Amid the rising memory market prices and the continuously improving supply-demand balance, original manufacturers (OEMs) have seen their business performance steadily climb, generally achieving a turnaround from losses to profits.

Meanwhile, memory module manufacturers have also enjoyed rapid growth in their performance. With strong support from AI, memory manufacturers are optimistic about future market conditions, with some even stating that 2025 will be a significant upward cycle year for the memory industry.

• OEM and Module Manufacturers Recorded Strong Financial Results

Recently, two OEMs, Micron and Winbond, have disclosed their latest financial data.

Micron’s financial report for the period from March to May 2024 shows that the company’s revenue for the quarter was USD 6.811 billion, an 81.5% increase YoY. Non-GAAP operating income was USD 941 million, and net income was USD 702 million, a 47% increase QoQ. Specifically, Micron’s DRAM revenue was approximately USD 4.7 billion, a 13% increase QoQ, while its NAND business revenue was approximately USD 2.1 billion, a 32% increase QoQ.

The average selling prices (ASP) for both DRAM and NAND increased by more than 20% QoQ. Micron stated that its revenue, gross margin, and earnings per share for the quarter exceeded the upper limit of its guidance range. Looking ahead to next quarter, Micron expects its revenue to reach USD 7.4-7.8 billion.

Winbond’s self-clearing revenue report for June 2024 shows that consolidated revenue for June was TWD 7.378 billion, a 5.56% increase YoY; the cumulative consolidated revenue for January to June was TWD 41.605 billion, a 14.53% increase YoY.

In terms of memory module manufacturers, companies such as Adata, Phison, and Team Group all reported year-on-year revenue growth for June and the first half of the year. Adata’s revenue for June reached TWD 2.954 billion, a year-on-year increase of over 29.38%, with a cumulative consolidated revenue of TWD 20.91 billion for the first half of this year, up by 48.56% YoY. Team Group’s revenue for June was TWD 2.796 billion, a 44.93% increase YoY, while Phison’s revenue was TWD 5.361 billion, a 55.93% increase YoY, both setting new monthly revenue records.

BIWIN and TWSC recently disclosed announcements expecting substantial year-on-year growth in net profit for the first half of 2024. BIWIN expects net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses to be CNY 275-325 million, a year-on-year increase of 191.12-207.69%. TWSC expects operating revenue to be CNY 2-2.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 238.68-289.48%.

• Memory Companies Anticipate an Upward Trend in 2025

Both OEMs and module manufacturers hold positive attitudes towards the outlook for future memory market.

Micron, as one of the three major DRAM manufacturers, has seen its HBM business grow by leaps and bounds in recent years, greatly benefited from the AI wave. Therefore, Micron is steadfastly optimistic about the potentials of AI and HBM. Micron expects to generate several hundred million dollars in revenue from HBM in fiscal 2024, which is expected to reach several billion dollar in fiscal 2025. Additionally, Micron reiterated that HBM has been in tight supply, and its HBM memory chips have already sold out for 2024 to 2025.

Winbond Chairman Arthur Chiao noted that Winbond began to see a decline in memory sales since 2Q22 and signs of sales increase in 2Q24 after eight quarters. He expects sales volume to rise, followed by price increase. He positively predicts that the industry will enter an upward cycle over the next two years, and 2025 will experience remarkable growth. To sum up, he views the market outlook for next year as optimistic.

Adata Chairman Simon Chen emphasized that upstream manufacturers currently have a very positive and proactive attitude towards prices. The allocation of production capacity is prioritized for HBM with the highest gross margin, followed by general-purpose DDR5 and DDR4. Capital expenditures are also profit-oriented.

As a result, short-term spot price fluctuations do not affect the continuous and stable upward trend of DRAM and NAND Flash contract prices in the third quarter. Moreover, some DRAM spot prices have started to rebound recently. He is optimistic that after a short-term adjustment in the spot market, the company’s shipments will return to a growth trajectory as the coming of the traditional peak season in 2H24.

• NAND Flash Price Increase to Shrink in 3Q24

It’s worth noting that although memory manufacturers are generally optimistic about the future market, and the AI development has indeed boosted demand for products such as servers, HBM, and enterprise SSD, the downstream terminal application market has not yet fully recovered.

Meanwhile, the active moves in expanding production by original manufacturers may lead to changes in the future supply-demand balance. These factors suggest that the increase in some product contract prices in the future memory market may shrink.

TrendForce reports that a recovery in demand for general servers—coupled with an increased production share of HBM by DRAM suppliers—has led suppliers to maintain their stance on hiking prices. As a result, the ASP of DRAM in the third quarter is expected to continue rising, with an anticipated increase of 8–13%. The price of conventional DRAM is expected to rise by 5–10%, showing a slight contraction compared to the increase in the second quarter.

In terms of NAND Flash, TrendForce indicates that industry companies will continue to invest in server construction, and particularly, enterprise SSD will see order increase as a result of the expansion of AI adoption, while consumer electronics demand remains weak. In addition, original manufacturers tend to be active in expand production in 2H24. As a whole, the sufficiency ratio of NAND Flash supply will rise to 2.3% in the third quarter, and the blended NAND Flash price increase will converge to 5-10%.

Looking at the price trend of NAND Flash this year, the price of NAND Flash accelerated to rebound as original manufacturers remained conservative in production increases in 1H24, which enabled them to return to profitability.

However, as manufacturers significantly expand production in 2H24, and retail market demand has still not recovered yet, the decline in wafer spot prices has widened, with some wafer prices falling more than 20% below contract prices. This presents a challenge for the future increase in wafer contract prices.

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• [News] Memory Utilization Rate Near Full Capacity, Surpassing Mature Nodes Foundries
• [News] Memory Market Recovery is Near, as Winbond Expects a Good Year in 2025

(Photo credit: Micron)

While still working in the final stage of HBM3e qualification with NVIDIA, Samsung Electronics is also advancing in the AI memory market with custom high bandwidth memory (HBM) solutions. According to reports by PassionateGeekz and China Flash Market, the memory giant is collaborating with major clients, such as AMD and Apple, to develop tailored HBM products, which are expected to be commercially available in the era of HBM4.

Citing Choi Jang-seok, head of Samsung’s new business planning team at memory division, the reports note that many customers of Samsung are switching from traditional, general HBM to customized products, as the latter promises better performance, power and area (PPA), while offering greater value than current options.

PassionateGeekz notes that at the Samsung Foundry Forum 2024 earlier this week, Choi further highlighted two forms of customized HBM Samsung has been developing. It is worth noting that Samsung is developing a large-capacity HBM4 memory with a single stack capacity of 48GB, which is expected to enter production in 2025.

On the other hand, Samsung also illustrated the innovation of the 3D stacking of HBM DRAM and customer-specific logic chips. By bypassing the interposer and base die required in the existing 2.5D packaging solution, the HBM chip can be directly integrated into the computing SoC in 3D. Samsung’s custom HBM, therefore, by eliminating intermediaries and substrates, can significantly reduce power and area.

TrendForce also observed that for HBM4, standard processes and capacities have been settled. The three major suppliers are in the development stage, with each buyer initiating custom requests. For future generations of HBM, new directions have been proposed, as HBM may no longer be just arranged next to the SoC main chip but could also stack directly on top of it.

While all the options are still under feasibility discussion and not finalized, TrendForce believes the future HBM industry will shift towards more customized production. Compared to other DRAM products, this approach aims to break away from the framework of commodity DRAM in terms of pricing and design, offering more specialized solutions.

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• [News] Samsung Establishes New HBM Team to Advance HBM3, HBM3e and HBM4 Development
• [News] Overview of Expansion Plans by HBM Giants

(Photo credit: Samsung)

According to an official release of Japanese semiconductor supplier Resonac, the “US-JOINT” alliance, comprising major semiconductor manufacturing companies from Japan and the United States, has been established to focus on next-generation semiconductor packaging. From Japan, six companies are participating, led by Resonac, MEC, Urvac, Namix, TOK, and Towa. The US participants include Azimuth, KLA, Kulicke & Soffa, and Moses Lake Industries.

In this alliance, Japanese companies primarily represent the materials sector, while the US companies include not only a materials company (Moses Lake) but also a packaging equipment company (Kulicke & Soffa), a measurement and inspection company (KLA), and a packaging services company (Azimuth).

Reportedly, US-JOINT will jointly establish a research center in the United States and plans to set up a base in California in the second half of this year. The construction of cleanrooms and the installation of equipment will begin, with the goal of starting operations next year.

As per industry sources cited by the China Flash Market, it is believed that the formation of this alliance primarily targets the US semiconductor market. The US is home to many world-class technology companies, such as NVIDIA, Qualcomm, and AMD, which are key customers in the high-tech packaging market.

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• [News] TSMC Reportedly Secures Another AI Opportunity, Winning Order from SK Hynix
• [News] Booming Sales of Japanese Semiconductor Equipment Continue to Break Records, Reportedly Surpassing JPY 300 Billion

(Photo credit: Resonac)

According to a report from BusinessKorea, memory giant SK hynix is deepening its collaboration with TSMC and NVIDIA, and will announce a closer partnership at the Semicon Taiwan exhibition in September.

SK hynix has been collaborating with TSMC for many years. In 2022, TSMC announced the establishment of the OIP 3DFabric Alliance at its North America Technology Symposium, incorporating partners in memory and packaging.

At that time, Kangwook Lee, Senior Vice President and PKG Development Lead at SK hynix, revealed that the company has been closely working with TSMC on previous generations and current high-bandwidth memory (HBM) technologies, supporting compatibility with the CoWoS process and HBM interconnectivity.

After joining the 3DFabric Alliance, SK hynix reportedly plans to deepen its collaboration with TSMC to develop solutions for the next generation of HBM, looking to achieve innovations in system-level products.

SK hynix President, Justin Kim, is reportedly said to be delivering a keynote speech at the International Semiconductor Exhibition in Taipei in September, marking SK hynix’s first participation in such a keynote address. Following the speech, Kim will engage in discussions with senior executives from TSMC, possibly including NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang, to discuss collaborative plans for the next generation of HBM. This move is expected to further solidify the trilateral alliance between SK hynix, TSMC, and NVIDIA.

Notably, the collaboration among the three giants was hinted in the first half of this year. On April 25th, SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won traveled to Silicon Valley to meet with NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang, potentially related to these strategies.

Reportedly, SK hynix will adopt TSMC’s logic process to manufacture the base die for HBM (High Bandwidth Memory). Reports indicate that SK hynix and TSMC have agreed to collaborate on the development and production of HBM4, scheduled for mass production in 2026.

HBM stacks core chips vertically on the base die, which are interconnected. While SK hynix currently produces HBM3e using its own process for the base die, it will switch to TSMC’s advanced logic process for HBM4. The same report further suggested that SK hynix will highlight achievements at forums, including achieving more than a 20% reduction in power consumption compared to initial targets for HBM4.

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• [News] TSMC Reportedly Secures Another AI Opportunity, Winning Order from SK Hynix
• [News] Booming Sales of Japanese Semiconductor Equipment Continue to Break Records, Reportedly Surpassing JPY 300 Billion

(Photo credit: SK hynix)

This year, global semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales are expected to grow and set a new historical record. It is estimated that next year will see even more robust growth, with an anticipated increase of 17%.

According to the forecast report from the International Semiconductor Industry Association (SEMI) released on July 10th, it’s indicated that global chip equipment sales in 2024 are estimated to increase by 3.4% year-over-year to USD 109 billion, surpassing the USD 107.4 billion record set in 2022. Furthermore, 2025 is projected to show even stronger growth, with sales expected to surge to USD 128 billion, breaking the record set in 2024.

“The growth in total semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales already underway this year is forecast to be followed by a robust expansion of roughly 17% in 2025,” said Ajit Manocha, SEMI president and CEO. “The global semiconductor industry is demonstrating its strong fundamentals and growth potential supporting the diverse range of disruptive applications emerging from the Artificial Intelligence wave.”

SEMI noted that due to continued strong equipment investment in China and increased investment in DRAM and HBM driven by AI computing, global sales of wafer fab equipment (WFE) in 2024 are estimated to grow by 2.8% year-over-year to USD 98 billion.

This is a significant upward revision from the previous estimate of USD 93 billion made in December and surpasses the USD 96 billion recorded in 2023, setting a new historical high. With the increased demand for advanced logic and memory applications, global WFE sales in 2025 are projected to increase by 14.7% year-over-year to USD 113 billion.

SEMI further stated that until 2025, China, Taiwan, and South Korea are expected to remain the top three countries in chip equipment investment. Due to continued growth in China’s equipment procurement, China is expected to maintain its leading position throughout the forecast period (up to 2025). Equipment shipments to the Chinese market in 2024 are estimated to exceed USD 35 billion, setting a new historical high, solidifying China’s unshakable lead. However, due to large-scale investments in China over the three-year period ending in 2024, it is anticipated that investments will decrease in 2025.

Chip equipment giant Tokyo Electron (TEL) announced in a press release on May 10 that starting in the second half of this year, the demand for DDR5 and HBM will increase, driving a projected recovery in investments in the most advanced DRAM.

As a result, the global market size for front-end chip manufacturing equipment in 2024 is projected to grow by 5% year-on-year to approximately 100 billion USD, matching the current historical high recorded in 2022 (around USD 100 billion). Additionally, with continued growth in AI servers and a recovery in demand for PCs and smartphones, the WFE market is anticipated to see a double-digit increase (over 10%) in 2025 compared to 2024.

In a financial report press release on May 9, semiconductor equipment company Screen Holdings stated that due to investments in mature processes in China and investments in the most advanced processes in Taiwan, the WFE market is expected to grow in 2024, with an estimated annual increase of about 5%.

Per a report by Nikkei on July 5th, SEAJ’s forecast report indicates that for the 2024 fiscal year (April 2024 to March 2025), the sales of Japanese-made chip equipment (including sales by Japanese companies both domestically and overseas) have been increased to JPY 4.2522 trillion, marking a significant increase of 15.0% compared to the 2023 fiscal year.

This will be the first time annual sales break the 4 trillion yen mark, setting a new historical record. The main drivers are the widespread adoption of AI, leading to extremely strong demand for GPUs used in AI servers, and the continued surge in demand for HBM used in conjunction with these GPUs.