With the end of the U.S. presidential election last week, diminishing uncertainty boosted equity markets, leading to a strong 4.66% rally in the S&P 500 Index, reaching 5,995.5 points.

In the bond market, the victory of Donald Trump and robust economic data drove the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to approximately 4.5%, before retreating to around 4.3% following a shift in the Federal Reserve’s stance. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index edged closer to the 105 threshold.

Key Economic Data Review for Last Week:

U.S. Presidential Election: Presidential candidate Donald Trump secured seven pivotal swing states, claiming victory with 312 electoral votes over Harris and becoming the 47th President of the United States. The Senate has been confirmed as controlled by the Republican Party, and the House currently shows a Republican lead of 213 seats versus the Democrats’ 203 seats. Should the Republicans maintain their lead, the U.S. will enter a period of unified Republican governance under Trump’s administration.

China’s National People’s Congress Standing Committee: The committee announced an increase in local government special bond issuance limits by RMB 6 trillion (approximately USD 837 billion) to restructure hidden local debts. Additionally, over the next five years, beginning in 2024, RMB 800 billion per year from new local special bond allocations will be earmarked for debt reduction, with an anticipated total restructuring of RMB 4 trillion in hidden debt.

U.S. Monetary Policy Decision: The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points at its November meeting, shifting its policy stance from the markedly dovish position of September to a more neutral outlook. This change reflects stronger-than-expected resilience in recent U.S. economic data. Following the meeting, market expectations for rate cuts next year were adjusted, with the Fed now anticipated to cut rates 25 basis points in December 2024, and 75 basis points in the first half of 2025, before pausing further reductions (previously expected to cut four times in 2025).

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Key Economic Data for This Week:

U.S. CPI (11/13): The impact of October’s hurricanes may have pushed many to seek temporary accommodation, driving up service prices. Additionally, hurricane damage to automobiles may lead to further increases in auto parts prices. According to forecasts from the Cleveland Fed, October’s CPI annual growth rate is expected to rise to 2.56% (from 2.41% in September), with core CPI projected to inch up to 3.34% (from 3.26%).

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U.S. Retail Sales (11/15): Entering the traditional holiday shopping season, the National Retail Federation anticipates that strong household financial health will continue to support consumer spending. Market expectations for retail sales growth remain robust, with a monthly increase projected at 0.3% (previously 0.4%) and an annual growth rate of 2.2% (previously 1.74%).

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China’s Monthly Economic Data (11/15): Against the backdrop of government initiatives such as old-for-new consumer goods campaigns and Singles’ Day promotions, the market anticipates that October’s retail sales growth will increase to 3.8% year-on-year (from 3.2%). With Trump’s election as President and the possibility of significant tariffs on Chinese imports, Chinese firms may accelerate production and exports, with industrial output growth expected to rise to 5.5% (from 5.4%). Meanwhile, fixed asset investment remains constrained by weaknesses in the real estate sector and local government finances, with projected cumulative annual growth holding steady at 3.5% (from 3.4%).

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According to MoneyDJ, citing Reuters, the U.S. government is actively working to curb the development of China’s semiconductor industry.

Republican Congressman John Moolenaar, chair of the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, along with senior Democratic Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi, jointly sent letters to five semiconductor equipment manufacturers: ASML, Applied Materials, KLA, Lam Research, and Tokyo Electron. The lawmakers requested information on sales to China, arguing that China is using advanced semiconductor equipment to strengthen its military and is supplying chips to the Russian military, thereby threatening international order and security, as the Reuters report noted.

The report from MoneyDJ indicated that the U.S. government intends to expand the scope of export controls, including tightening the Foreign Direct Product Rule (FDPR) to prevent China from obtaining advanced equipment for military purposes, which would prohibit the export of semiconductor equipment containing U.S. technology to China.

However, this legislation has been delayed due to strong opposition from Japan and the Netherlands, as it would significantly impact the operations of semiconductor equipment manufacturers, as the report from MoneyDJ indicated.

On the other hand, as reported by the Financial Times, TSMC has informed Chinese companies that it will cease production of the most advanced AI chips at 7nm or below for Chinese customers starting on November 11. This decision is seen as a direct response to concerns about China’s access to cutting-edge technology. The report suggests that TSMC’s tightening and cessation of advanced chip supplies to Chinese clients could set back the AI ambition of major Chinese tech companies such as Alibaba and Baidu.

Read more

• [News] TSMC Reportedly to Halt 7nm and Below Chip Shipments to China’s AI Firms Next Week
• [News] China’s Chipmaking Equipment Spending Likely to Drop below USD 40 Billion in 2025 amid U.S. Tensions

(Photo credit: istock photo )

In order to counter the competition from chip rivals such as AMD and NVIDIA, Intel reportedly plans to scale up its outsourcing efforts by handing over to TSMC more 3nm orders for its upcoming Lunar Lake and Arrow Lake chipsets in 2025, according to industrial sources cited by Commercial Times.

TSMC will continue to secure a large volume of outsourced business from IDMs, maintaining a strong cooperative relationship with Intel, acording to the Commercial Times report.

According to the report, Intel aims high for Arrow Lake as the chipset will feature two TPUs (Tensor Processing Units), allowing it to maintain high performance and high clock speeds while reducing power consumption by at least 100 watts. As the result, the product is regarded by Intel as a critical advantage for maintaining its lead in the AI PC market.

Intel’s Arrow Lake, its 15th generation CPU, features significant changes in both architecture and manufacturing process, along with a new name—Core Ultra 200S, according to its press release.

According to the Commercial Times, the processor is not only built using TSMC’s 3nm process, with a substantial reduction in computational core area and energy consumption, but also moving away from the traditional SoC design by adopting Intel’s exclusive 3D Foveros technology.

Foveros, Intel’s 3D advanced packaging technology, is a first-of-its-kind solution that enables the building of processors with compute tiles stacked vertically, rather than side-by-side, according to its press release. The focus of this new design is on energy efficiency, reducing packaging power consumption, and enhancing multi-core performance, the report notes.

According to the supply chain sources cited by the Commercial Times report, the Intel 7-Series chipsets in the 13th and 14th generations, in spite of adopting an 8P+16E (8 Performance-core and 16 Efficient-core) core configuration, the compute tile area still accounted for as much as 70% of the total chip area. However, by switching to TSMC’s 3nm process, the same core configuration now takes up only a third of the total area, while allowing the space for an additional NPU unit.

Though Intel has not given up its foundry unit, the struggling giant does seem to gradually loose competitiveness in advanced nodes, and it has outsourced several products to TSMC. The company’s latest flagship AI processor, Gaudi 3, is fabricated with TSMC’s 5nm.

Recently, in order to reduce costs and better prepare for its in-house 18A process, Intel has decided to abandon the introduction of the 20A node, and leverages TSMC’s process for the Arrow Lake chipset.

Read more

• [News] Intel Impresses the Market with Upbeat Q4 Guidance; 18A to Begin High-Volume Production in 2H25
• [News] Intel Shifts to TSMC for Chip Production: A Looming Threat for AMD?

(Photo credit: Intel)

In recent years, as the Chinese government strongly promotes domestic production, the localization rate of equipment in sectors such as semiconductors, precision electronic components, and new energy lithium batteries has steadily increased. Domestic equipment is gradually replacing imports, reducing dependency on external supply chains and safeguarding against potential critical equipment bottlenecks.

In the Micro LED field, Chinese equipment manufacturers are also actively advancing the research and production of key Micro LED equipment. This year, Chinese Micro LED equipment has achieved a series of breakthroughs, with multiple companies beginning to ship equipment to downstream clients.

Alphabetter Ships Micro LED Equipment to Taiwanese Client

On November 5, Alphabetter announced that its self-developed Micro LED wafer-level PL mass inspection device, the a-M1070, was officially shipped to Taiwan, marking the first equipment delivery for a Taiwanese client. Alphabetter stated that after the mass production of the a-M1070 product line, equipment shipments have largely covered major clients in the Micro LED industry within mainland China, fully realizing domestic substitution for this type of equipment.

The shipped a-M1070 mass inspection device uses photoluminescence testing technology, enabling non-contact, non-destructive, and ultra-fast luminescence performance testing. It can measure the brightness and spectral information of tens of millions of micro-LED chips on a COW (chip on wafer) or COC (chip on carrier) wafer within minutes, with a minimum validated chip size of 3μm x 3μm.

Continued Advancements in Micro LED Technology Provide Growth Opportunities for Chinese Equipment Manufacturers

It’s worth noting that Chinese equipment manufacturers have achieved several milestones in the Micro LED field this year. In addition to Alphabetter, companies such as Seichitech, JT Automation Equipment, Delphilaser, AMEC, SINEVA, and HSET have made notable progress in Micro LED testing, packaging, mass transfer, peeling, repair, and epitaxial growth equipment development.

Looking forward to the development of Micro LED technology, the LED industry continues to expand its Micro LED technology layout, with growth momentum largely unaffected by major tech companies such as Apple.

On the contrary, as downstream manufacturers accelerate Micro LED research and production, demand for related equipment continues to grow, representing a significant potential development opportunity for Chinese equipment suppliers.

Recently, the well-known MOCVD equipment manufacturer Aixtron indicated that it had received orders from clients establishing Micro LED research and pilot production lines, with several clients considering increasing Micro LED production by 2027 or 2028. Aixtron expects its Micro LED revenue to reach tens of millions of euros in its 2024 fiscal year, with a positive outlook for Micro LED business growth in the future.

Eric Chiou, Senior Research Vice President at TrendForce, also noted that while Apple has canceled its plans to mass-produce a Micro LED version of the Apple Watch by 2026, the industry continue to drive Micro LED technology development through acquisitions, joint ventures, and partnerships, with no apparent change in the commitment and trend toward developing Micro LED.

TrendForce projects that the global Micro LED chip market will reach approximately USD 62 million in 2024, with most demand stemming from large displays. As Micro LED technology advances into automotive display and near-eye display application markets, the global Micro LED chip market value is expected to reach nearly USD 600 million by 2028.

This estimate only reflects the chip segment of the Micro LED market. With the addition of the transfer, inspection equipment, and backplane segments in the Micro LED industry chain, the industry’s total market value will significantly exceed USD 600 million.

(Photo credit: Alphabetter)

According to a report from MoneyDJ, Japan’s major NAND Flash manufacturer Kioxia plans to go public on the Tokyo Stock Exchange by June 2025, leveraging Japan’s newly introduced IPO application process to shorten procedural timelines.

According to the report, Kioxia aims for an IPO within the period from December 2024 to June 2025, using the “S-1 Method” introduced in October 2023 to expedite the listing process. Depending on market conditions, the company is also exploring the possibility of listing as early as December 2024.

The report indicates that Kioxia plans to submit its securities registration statement to the Financial Services Agency on November 8th, targeting a market valuation exceeding JPY 1 trillion (USD 6.5 billion).

According to the report, Japan’s traditional IPO process requires companies to get Tokyo Stock Exchange approval, then file a securities registration statement with the Financial Services Agency before setting an offering price with investors. The new “S-1 Method” allows filing and investor discussions to start before approval, cutting the time to public offering from about a month to 10 days.

According to a report in the Reuters, Kioxia is the first company to use the new rules permitting firms to gauge investor interest prior to seeking listing approval from the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Reuters report indicates that Kioxia anticipates receiving approval from the bourse in late November, with an indicative share price to be revealed around that time.

The report in MoneyDJ mentioned that previously, Kioxia had filed for listing with the Tokyo Stock Exchange in August, with plans to go public in October. However, due to a downturn in the semiconductor market and inability to secure favorable valuations, the IPO was postponed.

According to MoneyDJ, referencing another report from Reuters, the slow recovery in the memory chip market has led investors to urge Kioxia’s major shareholder, U.S. investment firm Bain Capital, to cut the company’s IPO valuation target from JPY 1.5 trillion to nearly half that amount. This investor pressure caused Bain to drop plans for an October IPO.

Read more

• [News] Kioxia Projects NAND Demand to Triple by 2028 as It Gears up for Expansion amid AI Boom
• [News] Why Is Kioxia Delaying Its IPO? Market Valuation Reportedly Half of Target

(Photo credit: Kioxia)