AI applications is driving the memory market forward, with HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) undoubtedly being a sought-after product of the industry, attracting increased capital expenditure and production expansion from memory manufacturers. At the meantime, a new force in the memory market has quietly emerged: GDDR7 is expected to drive the memory market steadily forward as HBM amid the AI wave.

• The Differences between GDDR7 and HBM

GDDR7 and HBM both belong to the category of graphics DRAM with high bandwidth and high-speed data transmission capabilities, providing strong support for AI computing. However, GDDR7 and HBM differ slightly in terms of technology, application scenarios, and performance.

GDDR7 is the latest technology in the GDDR family primarily used to enhance the available bandwidth and memory capacity of GPU. In March 2024, JEDEC, the Solid State Technology Association, officially released the JESD239 GDDR7 standard, which significantly increases bandwidth, eventually reaching 192GB/s per equipment.

It can be calculated that the memory speed is 48Gbps, double that of GDDR6X, the number of independent channels double from 2 in GDDR6 to 4 in GDDR7, and it supports densities ranging from 16-32 Gbit, including support for 2-channel mode to double system capacity.

Additionally, JESD239 GDDR7 is the first JEDEC-standard DRAM to use a Pulse Amplitude Modulation (PAM) interface for high-frequency operation. Its PAM3 interface improves the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) in high-frequency operations while improving energy efficiency.

GDDR7 is mainly applied in graphics processing, gaming, computing, networking, and AI, particularly in gaming, where its high bandwidth and high-speed data transmission capabilities can significantly improve frame smoothness and loading speed, enabling a better experience for game players. In the field of AI, GDDR7 boasts great potential, capable of supporting rapid data processing and computation for large AI models, thus speeding up model training and inference.

Michael Litt, chairman of the JEDEC GDDR Task Group, has stated that GDDR7 is the first to focus not only on bandwidth but also on integrating the latest data integrity features to meet the market demands for RAS (Reliability, Availability, and Serviceability). These features allow GDDR devices to better serve existing markets like cloud gaming and computing, and expand its presence to AI sector.

Based on memory stacking technology, HBM connects layers through Through-Silicon Via (TSV), and features high capacity, high bandwidth, low latency, and low power consumption. Its strength lies in breaking the memory bandwidth and power consumption bottleneck. Currently, HBM is mainly used in AI server and supercomputer applications.

Since the introduction of the first generation in 2013, HBM has developed the second generation (HBM2), third generation (HBM2E), fourth generation (HBM3), and fifth generation (HBM3E).

This year, HBM3e will be the mainstream in the market, with concentrated shipments expected in 2H24. Besides, the sixth generation HBM4 is anticipated to make its debut as early as 2025. Reportedly, HBM4 will bring revolutionary changes, adopting a 2048-bit memory interface, which theoretically can double the transmission speed again.

• Three Memory Giants Scramble for the Initiative in GDDR7 Market

Due to high technical barriers, HBM market share is firmly at the helm of the three major memory players: SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron. With the ongoing influence of AI, their competition has been expanding from HBM to GDDR field.

Since the beginning of this year, the three manufacturers have successively announced the availability of GDDR7 memory samples. It’s expected that some of them will start mass production of GDDR7 between 4Q24 and 1Q25.

Photo credit: Samsung Electronics

In March, Samsung and SK Hynix announced their respective GDDR7 specifications. Samsung’s GDDR7 chip, using PAM3 signal for the first time, can achieve a speed of 32Gbps at a DRAM voltage of only 1.1V, exceeding the JEDEC GDDR7 specification of 1.2V.

SK Hynix’s latest GDDR7 product, compared to its predecessor GDDR6, offers a maximum bandwidth of 160GB/s, double that of the previous generation, with a 40% improvement in power efficiency and a 1.5 times increase in memory density.

In June, Micron announced it already begun sampling its new generation of GDDR7, achieving a speed of 32Gbps and a memory bandwidth of 1.5TB/sec, a 60% improvement over GDDR6, boasting the industry’s highest bit density. Micron’s GDDR7 utilizes 1β DRAM technology and an innovative architecture and has four independent channels to optimize workloads, offering faster response time, smoother gaming experience, and shorter processing time.

Additionally, Micron’s GDDR7 improves energy efficiency by 50% relative to GDDR6, which hence enhances thermal performance for portable devices (Like laptop) and extends battery lifespan. The new sleep mode can reduce standby power consumption by 70%. Micron claims its next-generation GDDR7 can deliver high performance, increasing throughput by 33% and reducing response time for generative AI workloads (Text and image creation included) by 20%.

Photo credit: Micron

Recently, rumor has it that NVIDIA RTX 50 series will fully adopt the latest GDDR7, with a maximum capacity of 16GB, including models GN22-X11 (16 GB GDDR7), GN22-X9 (16 GB GDDR7), GN22-X7 (12 GB GDDR7), GN22-X6 (8 GB GDDR7), GN22-X4 (8 GB GDDR7), and GN22-X2 (8 GB GDDR7). The industry believes that GDDR7 will become a new arena in the memory market following HBM, in which manufacturers will continue to battle for NVIDIA GPU orders.

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• [News] SK hynix to Kick off Mass Production for GDDR7 in Q4 2024
• [News] Micron Reportedly Targets 25% HBM Market Share by 2025

(Photo credit: Samsung Electronics)

According to reports from the Chosun Daily, starting from July, the South Korean government will begin offering incentives and subsidies to semiconductor companies, launching a 26 trillion won (USD 19 billion) funding program to support the industry.

While China and the United States are introducing government funds into strategic sectors, the South Korean government is also joining this effort amid geopolitical tensions that are fragmenting the global chip supply chain.

Initially, South Korea will start with an 18 trillion won (USD 12.94 billion) investment program, including preferential loans and investment funds. According to a statement from the Ministry of Economy and Finance, eligible companies will be able to borrow from a 17 trillion won low-interest loan program.

According to the Chosun Daily, the financial support program will commence next month, providing preferential interest rates of 0.8 to 1.0 percentage points for large companies and 1.2 to 1.5 percentage points for small and medium-sized enterprises, compared to standard industrial bank loans.

Additionally, the government aims to raise up to 800 billion won for a new semiconductor ecosystem fund by 2027. By 2025, the fund plans to gather 300 billion won and will begin making equity investments in materials, components, equipment, and fabless companies starting next month.

The government is also planning to extend the tax credit scheme for developing national strategic technologies by an additional three years, which was initially scheduled to expire at the end of this year.

Before the aforementioned “comprehensive support package” announced on 26th, the South Korean government is already investing USD 470 billion to establish a massive semiconductor cluster in the suburbs of Seoul, which covers areas from Pyeongtaek to Yongin, aiming to produce 7.7 million wafers monthly by 2030.

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• • [News] South Korea Reportedly Pushes for KRW 10 Trillion Investment Plan to Strengthen Semiconductor Industry Position

According to a report from Japanese news outlet Kyodo News, TSMC’s Fab in Kikuyo, Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan (Kumamoto Fab 1) is expected to start mass production in Q4 this year. The planned second Fab (Kumamoto Fab 2) will also be located in Kikuyo. Reportedly, TSMC’s Kumamoto Fab 2 has already begun land preparation, the construction of the fab is set to commence as scheduled in the second half of the year, with the goal of commencing operations by 2027.

The report indicates that Kumamoto Fab 2 is situated to the east of Kumamoto Fab 1, which held its opening ceremony in February. Per Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry, the land area for Kumamoto Fab 2 is approximately 321,000 square meters, about 1.5 times larger than Kumamoto Fab 1 (an increase of around 50%). The investment for this project is estimated at around JPY 2.2 trillion yen, with the Japanese government providing subsidies of up to JPY 732 billion.

Kumamoto Fab 1 is expected to begin mass production in Q4 of this year, utilizing 28/22nm and 16/12nm process technologies with a monthly capacity of 55,000 wafers.

On February 6th, TSMC announced the construction of Kumamoto Fab 2 in Kumamoto Prefecture. Combined, the total investment for both Fabs is expected to exceed USD 20 billion. Construction of Kumamoto Fab 2 is scheduled to start at the end of 2024, with the goal of beginning operations by the end of 2027, focusing on 6/7nm technology. The combined monthly capacity of Kumamoto Fab 1 and Fab 2 is estimated to exceed 100,000 wafers.

Kumamoto’s newly appointed governor, Takashi Kimura, who took office in April, stated in an report from Bloomberg on May 11th that he would spare no effort to persuade TSMC to establish a third fab in the region. Kimura believed that during the preparations for TSMC’s first fab in Kumamoto, the region already possesses better-quality road and water infrastructure and an education system that better supports international school students, which could be advantageous.

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• [News] A Subsidy Wave Sweeping in the US, Europe and Japan amid the Cut-Throat Chip Competition
• [News] Rumored to Build Third Plant in Kumamoto, TSMC: Currently Focusing on Assessing the Construction of a Second Plant

(Photo credit: TSMC)

According to TrendForce’s latest memory spot price trend report, the spot price of DRAM remains weak, as Samsung’s reallocation of its D1A process to the manufacturing of HBM products did little help. As for NAND flash, overall transactions are also sitting on the enervated end due to weakening market demand. Details are as follows:

DRAM Spot Price:

A fire-related incident occurred at Micron’s fab in Taichung on June 20th, but no actual losses (in bit terms) have been reported. In response to this event, module houses did temporarily suspend quoting, but they soon resumed trading activities. Overall, the event has had no positive effect on the spot price trend, which remains relatively weak. Similar to last week, spot trading has been fairly tepid, and prices of DDR4 products have fallen more significantly compared to DDR5 products. With Samsung reallocating its D1A process to the manufacturing of HBM products, spot prices of DDR5 products have actually experienced sporadic hikes for a while. Mainstream die DDR4 1Gx8 2666 MT/s saw a price increase of 1.36% this week (US$1.835 to US$1.860).

NAND Flash Spot Price:

Module houses have started adopting even more aggressive pricing strategies to effectively control their inventory, though overall transactions are sitting on the enervated end due to weakening market demand. TrendForce believes that inventory pressure would continue to bring down spot prices, which dropped to US$3.302 for 512Gb TLC wafers this week at a 0.21% reduction.

According to a report from the Economic Daily News, amid the escalating US-China tech war, Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasized the need to enhance the sense of urgency and intensify efforts in technological innovation. Particularly in six key areas, including semiconductors, industrial machinery, and advanced materials, China aims to ensure the independence, security, and control of crucial industrial and supply chains, striving to become a technological powerhouse by 2035.

During the speech Xi delivered while presenting China’s top sci-tech award on June 24th, he stated that building China into a technological powerhouse has been a persistent goal of the Chinese nation since modern times. As per the same report, by 2035, China aims to possess world-leading technological strength and innovation capability, which will support a significant leap in economic strength, national defense strength, and comprehensive national power.

Xi also called for China to focus on six key areas, including addressing bottlenecks in integrated circuits (semiconductors), industrial machinery, basic software, advanced materials, and scientific research instruments by intensifying technological research and development efforts. The goal is to ensure that critical industrial and supply chains are self-sufficient, secure, and controllable, providing technological support for these areas.

Furthermore, he urged targeting the strategic high ground of future technological and industrial development, accelerating innovation in next-generation information technology, artificial intelligence (AI), quantum technology, biotechnology, new energy, and new materials. The aim is to foster the growth of emerging and future industries.

Regarding the current international situation, Xi mentioned that the technological revolution and major power rivalries are intertwined, making high-tech fields the forefront and main battleground of international competition. He also acknowledged that China’s capability for original innovation remains relatively weak, with some critical core technologies dependent on others and a shortage of top scientific talent.

Earlier this month, Huawei also reportedly acknowledged that China’s semiconductor development may have plateaued. Per a report from Business Korea, Zhang Ping’an, the Chief Executive Officer of Huawei Cloud Services, noted that manufacturing 3.5 nm semiconductors necessitates EUV lithography machines, which Huawei is reportedly working on independently. However, overcoming U.S. and Dutch patents to internalize this technology is considered highly challenging.

Read more

• [News] US to Lobby Netherlands and Japan to Contain China’s Chip Development, Focusing on HBM
• [News] Huawei Reportedly Acknowledges China’s Semiconductor Development May Have Plateaued, Facing Challenges Below 3.5nm

(Photo credit: iStock)