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TSMC has passed the test of the market with flying colors as it reported record high profit in the third quarter at the earnings call. By confirming that the AI demand is “real,” TSMC Chairman C.C. Wei stated that the foundry giant is expected to enjoy healthy growth over the next five years. But which node would be the one most clients show strong interest in?
According to the reports by the Economic Daily News and MoneyDJ, customer inquiries for 2nm are even higher than those for 3nm, while A16 is highly attractive for AI server applications.
TSMC’s 3nm has already shown robust momentum this year, as its shipments accounted for 20% of total wafer revenue in the third quarter, rising from 9% and 15% in the first and second quarter, respectively.
According to an industrial source cited by MoneyDJ, TSMC started the mass production of 3nm in 2022, while the 2nm is expected to enter volume production in 2025, indicating that the generation cycle for a node has been expanded to three years.
Thus, supported by TSMC’s major clients, the contribution from 3nm will continue to rise next year and remain a key revenue driver in 2026, while the 2nm process is expected to replicate or even surpass the success of 3nm, MoneyDJ notes. According to previous market speculations, tech giants such as Apple, NVIDIA and AMD are believed to be the first batch of TSMC’s 2nm customers.
Citing C.C.Wei, the Economic Daily News notes that the high-performance computing (HPC) applications demand more powerful processors, which accelerates the development of chiplet designs. However, the trend does not seem to impact the adoption of 2nm, and clients are showing even stronger interests for the node compared with 3nm.
And TSMC does plan to expand its 2nm capacity thanks to the strong demand, as the schedule of mass producing 2nm in 2025 remains on track.
According to a previous report from MoneyDJ, TSMC’s 2nm fabs in Hsinchu’s Baoshan and Kaohsiung will achieve a monthly capacity of approximately 30,000 to 35,000 wafers, respectively. By 2027, their combined capacity is set to exceed 100,000 wafers, marking the mainstream transition to the next generation of processes.
As for TSMC’s angstrom-level A16 process, it is creating a buzz even before mass production in 2026. Citing C.C.Wei’s remarks, the report by the Economic Daily News notes that the A16 is highly attractive for AI server applications, and TSMC is actively preparing the related production capacity to meet customer demand.
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After reporting disappointing third-quarter earnings forecast, Samsung’s next move has become the center of market attention. According to a report by Business Korea, to turn the situation around, Samsung may shift its strategy focus to early HBM4 mass production, as well as targeting advanced foundry solutions below 2nm.
A couple of days ago, Samsung warned its third-quarter profit would probably reach 9.1 trillion won, falling short of market expectations. Jeon Young-hyun, the head of Samsung’s Device Solutions (DS) division, issued an unusual public apology in the meantime.
Citing industry sources, Business Korea notes that Samsung’s DS division is expected to post an operating profit of around 5 trillion won (about USD 3.8 billion) for the third quarter, which is reportedly below the market expectation of 6 trillion won. The figure is significantly lower than SK hynix’s projected quarterly operating profit, which is expected to be in the high 6 trillion won range, according to the report.
Samsung May Accelerate HBM4 Progress to Turn the Tide
The series of setbacks have prompted the struggling giant to take action. As Samsung’s lackluster performance could be attributed to its delay in supplying NVIDIA with its 12-layer HBM3e product, industry insiders cited by Business Korea suggest that accelerating the mass production of HBM4, as well as introducing 2nm foundry solutions, could just be the remedies Samsung needs.
In terms of the HBM market, in which Samsung is lagging behind SK hynix on HBM3e verification, the report indicates that Samsung is expected to prioritize the early mass production of HBM4, which is projected to become mainstream in 2025.
A source familiar with the situation told Business Korea that HBM orders from companies other than NVIDIA would rise next year. Major tech firms, including AMD, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Qualcomm, are also working on AI semiconductors. Therefore, it does not necessarily mean that Samsung should concentrate solely on NVIDIA, and it could accelerate supply contracts with NVIDIA’s competitors, the report notes.
TrendForce’s latest findings indicate that Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron have all submitted their first HBM3e 12-Hi samples in the first half and third quarter of 2024, respectively, and are currently undergoing validation. SK hynix and Micron are making faster progress and are expected to complete validation by the end of this year.
2nm Advancements Would be Another Focus
On the other hand, in terms of the foundry sector, the report suggests that Samsung is expected to further enhance its ‘turnkey order’ strategy. This approach addresses concerns about technology leakage while providing HBM as part of a comprehensive package.
According to the report, Samsung is set to begin mass production of its GAA 2nm process in 2025. The company also aims to complete the development of the 2nm process with Backside Power Delivery Network (BSPDN) technology by 2027. Having secured 2nm orders from Japan’s AI unicorn Preferred Networks (PFN) and U.S. AI semiconductor company Ambarella, Samsung reportedly plans to seek collaboration with major tech firms.
To attract customers, Samsung will host the “Foundry Forum 2024” online on October 24. Previously scheduled to be held in Beijing, the event will now be conducted virtually, which aligns with the company’s efforts to reduce costs. Will it make further progress in advanced nodes? The whole world is watching.
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(Photo credit: Samsung)
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Though still be struggling with low yield rates in 3nm, Samsung is reportedly ramping up its efforts to prepare for the mass production of 2nm and 1.4nm to compete with its longtime rival, TSMC. Citing industrial sources on Oct. 3rd, Business Korea reveals that the South Korean foundry giant is introducing equipment at the Hwaseong plant to establish a 2nm production line, while it also plans to set up a 1.4nm line in its Pyeongtaek 2 plant next year.
According to the report, this initiative is in line with Samsung’s goal to mass produce 2nm in 2025 and 1.4nm by 2027.
In terms of the capacity expansion of 2nm, Samsung aims to install a capacity of 7,000 wafers per month by the first quarter of next year in its S3 foundry line at Hwaseong, Business Korea states. It is worth noting that the existing 3nm line at S3 is expected to be fully converted to a 2nm line by the end of next year.
Then, starting in the second quarter of next year, Samsung plans to set up a 1.4nm production line at the S5 facility in its Pyeongtaek 2 plant, with a capacity of approximately 2,000 to 3,000 wafers per month, according to the report.
Unlike the aggressive expansion for its advanced nodes in South Korea, Samsung’s foundry project in Taylor, Texas, seems to be in stagnant. The company had reportedly planned to begin mass production of below-4nm nodes there by the end of 2024, but this has somehow been pushed back to 2026, which reflects the possible yield issues regarding 3nm node with GAA architecture Samsung has been eager to solve, the report suggests.
Due to a decline in client orders, Samsung’s management has decided to convert the foundry line at its Pyeongtaek 4 plant into DRAM facilities, the report points out. Additionally, the Pyeongtaek 3 plant, which features a 4nm line, has decreased its scale of operation for the same reason.
Analysts cited by the report estimate that Samsung Foundry might incur a deficit of several hundred billion won in the third quarter of this year, underscoring the financial pressures the company is experiencing.
As the delay of the 3nm Exynos seems to be irreversible, securing the success of 2nm has become a top priority for Samsung. Business Korea indicates that the testing of Samsung’s 2nm will be conducted on the next-generation Exynos chip, codenamed “Tethys.” Evaluations may also be said to extend to chips from Qualcomm, Japan’s Preferred Networks (PFN), and Ambarella.
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(Photo credit: Samsung)
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As TSMC has reportedly begun trial production of 2nm chips in its Baoshan Plant in Hsinchu, northern Taiwan, the schedule of mass producing 2nm in 2025 remains on track. A report by Commercial Times reveals that the price of 2nm wafers is expected to double compared to 4/5nm, which may exceed USD 30,000 per wafer.
While the yield rates for advanced nodes of Intel and Samsung are rumored to be relatively low, the rising price of 2nm wafers reflects TSMC’s market monopoly as well as its strong pricing power, the report notes.
Citing comments by sources from semiconductor companies, the report states that fabs have invested heavily in advanced processes. For instance, the R&D investment of 3nm may exceed USD 4 billion, with key partners in TSMC’s supply chain, such as Taiwanese IP providers and material suppliers, playing a critical role.
On the other hand, executives from IC design houses cited by the report reveal that even from the perspective of IC design, the R&D cost for advanced nodes remains high. For instance, the development cost for 28nm is approximately USD 50 million, while 16nm may require an investment of USD 100 million. For 5nm, the R&D cost has soared to USD 550 million, if the expenditure on IP licensing, software verification, and design architecture are factored in.
According to the report, foundries have invested even more, with research institutions estimating that R&D expenses for 3nm may range from USD 4 billion to USD 5 billion. Additionally, constructing a 3nm fab is expected to cost at least USD 15 billion to USD 20 billion. All these factors may lead to the high pricing of wafers in the advanced nodes.
Therefore, for a foundry, the development of a new-generation of node involves massive efforts, and needed to be supported by partners in three key sectors: equipment, software (including IP and EDA tools), and materials, the report notes. Once their products have been validated by the foundry, suppliers can usually secure long-term partnership.
With 2nm set to debut in 2025, TSMC’s key suppliers are expected to see explosive profit growth, the report indicates. According to the report, Taiwanese IP firm M31, for example, has already developed IP that supports the 2nm platform for both smartphones and high-performance computing. Likewise, eMemory has disclosed that it is collaborating with leading foundries to develop 2nm.
On the other hand, as 2nm processes require thinner wafers, Taiwan-based materials companies, such as Kinik and Phoenix Silicon International Corp., have entered the markets of diamond discs and reclaimed wafers.
According to the report, in terms of reclaimed wafers, the market value for 2nm is approximately 4.6 times that of 28nm. In addition, the number of dummy wafers will also increase in advanced processes, which benefit suppliers with more volume and higher average prices.
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(Photo credit: TSMC)
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Japanese government-backed foundry Rapidus aims to begin mass production of 2nm chips by 2027. According to a MoneyDJ report, existing shareholders like Sony and NAND Flash giant Kioxia are reportedly considering additional investments to support the company’s funding needs.
The Japan Times cited sources confirming that Sony and other current investors will provide further financial backing for Rapidus, which is focused on domestic production of next-generation semiconductors. These investments will be coordinated with financial institutions and the central government to help the Tokyo-based firm secure the necessary capital to start production by 2027.
Rapidus is aiming to raise ¥100 billion from the private sector and asked shareholders to confirm additional contributions, with a response deadline set for Friday.
Investors in Rapidus include Sony Group, NEC, NTT, Kioxia, MUFG Bank, Toyota, SoftBank, and Denso, with combined investments totaling ¥7.3 billion. Sony, NEC, NTT, and MUFG Bank are expected to participate in the additional funding round.
In the financial sector, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking, Mizuho Bank, and the Development Bank of Japan are also considering becoming new shareholders, with combined investments from these three lenders and MUFG Bank expected to reach ¥25 billion. The additional funding from both financial and non-financial companies is likely to begin as early as 2025.