The U.S. has tightened restrictions on foundries supplying 7nm and below chips to Chinese clients. According to a report from Economic Daily News, following TSMC’s suspension of services to restricted Chinese clients, rumors suggest that South Korea’s Samsung is also affected by U.S. restrictions, preventing it from offering such foundry services to Chinese firms.

Samsung’s foundry division has reportedly notified Chinese clients about the restrictions, according to the report. However, Samsung has declined to comment on these rumors.

As for Intel, since it is closely aligned with the U.S., the company is also expected to comply with U.S. regulations, as the report mentioned. This would lead to a comprehensive blockade of China’s effort to develop advanced AI chips, signaling a new chapter in the U.S.-China semiconductor confrontation, potentially reshaping the global semiconductor landscape.

The report pointed out that currently, only three companies—TSMC, Samsung, and Intel—are capable of providing foundry services below the 7nm process. China’s leading foundry, SMIC, claims to have 7nm production capability, but it lacks the necessary economies of scale and efficiency.

Citing industry sources, the report suggests that Alibaba’s AI chip subsidiary, T-Head, could be the most heavily impacted by the restrictions, indicating that, following Huawei, Alibaba has now also come under scrutiny by the White House. Along with T-head, other Chinese AI chip companies, such as Bitmain and Cambricon, are also likely to be impacted.

Fully owned by Alibaba, T-Head has made rapid progress in next-generation chip development, with its “Yitian” series reaching sub-5nm technology, as the report mentioned. The company claims that its technology supports applications across diverse fields, including AI in automotive, gaming, and scientific research.

The report indicated that as China’s path to self-developed AI chips encounters setbacks, it may be forced to rely on downgraded versions of AI chips from U.S. companies like NVIDIA and AMD to comply with American restrictions. This development, as the report noted, could undermine Beijing’s hopes of using domestically developed AI chips to circumvent U.S. limitations.

(Photo credit: Samsung)

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• [News] Four Key Takeaways on TSMC’s Reported Halt of 7nm and Below Chip Supplies to China
• [News] TSMC Reportedly Halts Shipments to Chinese Firm Sophgo After Chip Found in Huawei Processor

Following previous controversies of supplying 7nm chips to Huawei through proxies, TSMC is rumored to be requested by the U.S. Department of Commerce to suspend shipments of all its 7nm or more advanced chips to the AI/GPU clients in China, starting from today (November 11), according to the reports by the Financial Times and Reuters.

Though the information has yet to be confirmed, neither does TSMC make a clear statement to its clients, market sources seems to increase the credibility of the matter. A report by TechNews, therefore, compiles the development and the possible impact of the incident, providing further insights into the current situation. Please read below for the report’s analysis on four key aspects:

Why Now?

According to Reuters, the Department of Commerce sent an “informed” letter to TSMC to make the request, enabling the U.S. to bypass lengthy rule-making procedures and swiftly impose new licensing requirements on specific companies. The action comes shortly after TSMC told the Department that one of its chips had been found in a Huawei AI processor.

The move, in some way, reportedly indicates growing concerns from both Republican and Democratic lawmakers about the effectiveness of export controls on China as well as the U.S. authority’s enforcement of these regulations.

Earlier in July, the Biden administration reportedly drafted new rules targeting chipmaking equipment exports and aimed to add around 120 Chinese companies to the restricted entity list. However, despite initial plans for an August release, the rules have not yet been issued, according to Reuters.

Current Scenario of TSMC and Its Clients in China

However, things aren’t as bad as they seem, as sources tend to indicate that TSMC is not truly halting supply of 7nm and below advanced processes to China, but is instead required to conduct individual project reviews for each customer wishing to place orders. Production will only proceed after obtaining the necessary permits, according to TechNews.

According to another report by TechNowvoice, the main focus of the current restrictions would be on AI chips, which means products such as GPUs will be closely monitored. On the other hand, mobile and automotive chips may be excluded from the restrictions.

The TechNowvoice report further suggests that within the AI chip category, those responsible for training will be the key target of the restrictions, while chips used for AI inference may have a chance of passing the review.

Criteria for Export Restrictions

According to TechNowvoice, market speculations indicate that there are four criteria for evaluation, including transistor count (exceeding 300 billion), chip size (exceeding 300mm²), HBM incorporation, and whether the chip leverages CoWoS packaging.

Given these standards, it will be increasingly difficult for AI chips based on current mainstream architectures to pass the review and obtain approval from the U.S. Department of Commerce, the report indicates.

The report further suggests that the move will likely impact the four major cloud computing companies in China, including Huawei, Baidu, Tencent, and Alibaba. While Huawei has already been included in the blacklist, the other three companies, which have been collaborating with TSMC on AI chip development, may also require further reviews in the future.

What Would the Impact Be?

TSMC’s decision would be a major blow to China’s AI ambition, as AI and GPU companies in China will no longer have access to TSMC’s advanced process, which could lead to higher costs and longer time-to-market, and significantly impact their product performance and market competitiveness.

A supply chain reshuffle is likely to follow, as Chinese chip design companies may need to seek alternative foundries, according to TechNews.

According to the latest research report by TrendForce, if the policy takes effect, it could impact TSMC’s revenue performance and utilization rates of its 7nm and below advanced process capacity, while also affecting the future development of China’s AI industry.

For the first three quarters of 2024, TSMC’s revenue distribution shows that advanced nodes accounted for 67% of its total revenue—a key revenue source. However, TrendForce highlights that the major clients for TSMC’s 7/6n, 5/4nm, and 3nm processes are primarily from the U.S., Europe, and Taiwan. Consequently, even if regulatory actions impact business some Chinese clients may be lost, TrendForce expects other customers to offset this loss, limiting the potential effect on advanced process utilization rates.

TSMC’s revenue from China has remained steady at 11% to 13% for the full year of 2023 and the first three quarters of 2024. If regulatory scrutiny of TSMC’s advanced processes intensifies, or if certain Chinese clients are added to the Entity List—particularly affecting Chinese AI-related IC design companies, IP providers, third-party design services, or other businesses that depend on TSMC’s advanced processes for project initiation, tape-outs, and mass production—TSMC could face a revenue impact of approximately 5% to 8%.

However, strong global demand for AI chips and TSMC’s planned price increases for advanced process clients are expected to help mitigate some of this impact, according to TrendForce.

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• [News] TSMC Reportedly to Halt 7nm and Below Chip Shipments to China’s AI Firms Next Week
• [News] TSMC Reportedly Halts Shipments to Chinese Firm Sophgo After Chip Found in Huawei Processor

(Photo credit: TSMC)

Following previous controversies of supplying 7nm chips to Huawei through proxies, TSMC has reportedly notified all its AI chip customers in China by formal emails that starting next week (November 11), it would halt shipments of all the 7nm and more advanced chips to its AI/GPU clients there, according to Chinese media outlet ijiwei.

While this decision may temporarily reduce TSMC’s business in China, in the long run, TSMC could gain more opportunities in the U.S. market by complying with American regulations, the report says.

According to ijiwei’s analysis, TSMC’s move, which highlights the foundry giant’s delicate position in the global semiconductor supply chain amid the heating chip war between the world’s two superpowers, could become a watershed moment in the future of technology development, with long-lasting impacts.

According to the ijiwei report, with the newly elected Trump claiming that TSMC should pay a “protection fee,” the company’s latest move seems to be an effort to align itself with the U.S. Department of Commerce. The two parties, together, have created a stringent review system to completely block advanced process from China’s reach, the report notes.

According to another media outlet SEMICONVoice, the U.S. Department of Commerce has reportedly instructed TSMC to make the move, as production could only proceed after being reviewed and approved by the U.S. Department of Commerce’s BIS (Bureau of Industry and Security) and receiving a license. This would effectively tighten the availability of advanced 7nm and below processes for all Chinese AI chips, GPUs, and autonomous driving ADAS systems, the report notes.

According to the latest report by Bloomberg and Reuters, TSMC has almost finalized binding agreements for multi-billion dollar grants and loans to back its U.S. factories, which may allow it to receive the funding from the Biden administration soon.

TSMC’s package, announced in April, includes USD 6.6 billion in grants and up to USD 5 billion in loans to aid the construction of three semiconductor factories in Arizona.

On the other hand, TSMC’s decision would be a major blow to China’s AI ambition, as AI and GPU companies in China will no longer have access to TSMC’s advanced process, which could lead to higher costs and longer time-to-market, and significantly impact their product performance and market competitiveness, the ijiwei report states.

A supply chain reshuffle is likely to follow, as Chinese chip design companies may need to seek alternative foundries, according to the report.

China’s SMIC, currently the world’s third largest foundry, is said to successfully produce 5nm chips using DUV lithography instead of EUV. However, as previously reported by the Financial Times, industry sources have indicated that SMIC’s prices for 5nm and 7nm processes are 40% to 50% higher than TSMC’s, while the yield less than one-third of TSMC’s.

According to TrendForce, as of the second quarter of 2024, SMIC maintains a solid 5.7% market share, securing its position in third place, after TSMC (62.3%) and Samsung (11.5%).

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• [News] TSMC Reportedly Halts Shipments to Chinese Firm Sophgo After Chip Found in Huawei Processor

(Photo credit: TSMC)

As the semiconductor industry continues to advance, it has sparked an arms race among Samsung, Intel, and TSMC in acquiring extreme ultraviolet (EUV) equipment. When asked about when TSMC would adopt the extremely expensive High Numerical Aperture EUV (High-NA EUV) lithography equipment, as per a report from Economic Daily News, TSMC’s Senior Vice President of Business Development and Global Sales at TSMC, Kevin Zhang, also revealed his insight regarding the matter in an interview.

Reportedly, High-NA EUV machines are priced as high as USD 380 million each, more than double the cost of regular EUV machines. Samsung and Intel have already invested heavily, purchasing several High-NA EUV machines ahead of TSMC, hoping to gain a competitive edge through more advanced equipment.

Industry sources cited by the report point out that Kevin Zhang did not reveal the exact timeline for TSMC’s purchase of High-NA EUV, indicating that TSMC is confident and will not blindly expand its procurement just because competitors have made early purchases. Instead, TSMC will continue to strategically plan its advanced manufacturing processes, steadily preparing to meet upcoming challenges.

Youtube channel TechTechPotato recently uploaded a 29-minute interview with Kevin Zhang. During the interview, Zhang emphasized that TSMC was the very first in terms of bringing EUV into high-volume manufacturing as early as the 7nm generation.

Zhang pointed out that TSMC currently leads in the usage, mass production, and production efficiency of EUV technology. Zhang also mentioned that scalability and manufacturing costs are significant factors to consider. He believes that TSMC’s R&D team will make the best decision regarding when and where to apply the next generation of EUV technology.

Notably, according to a report from The Chosun Daily, it pointed out that TSMC was expected to maximize the capabilities of its existing EUV equipment and utilize them through multi-patterning techniques. Simultaneously, the company was also evaluating the scale at which additional equipment may be introduced.

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• [News] Price for ASML’s Hyper-NA EUV Rumored to Double, Causing TSMC, Samsung and Intel to Hesitate
• [News] How Costly is the High-NA EUV? TSMC Reportedly Shocked, Considering Not Using the Equipment in its A16 Node

(Photo credit: ASML)

Chinese tech giant Huawei, which plans to launch its Mate 70 Series in the fourth quarter, is reportedly to feature the latest Kirin 9100 processor in these models. Though there were rumors indicating that the chip will be manufactured with SMIC’s 5nm node, according to a report by Wccftech, the next Kirin SoC for the Mate 70 Series will still be limited to SMIC’s 7nm process.

Kirin 9100’s predecessors, the Kirin 9000S and the Kirin 9010, have been mass-produced using SMIC’s 7nm (N+2) technology, the report notes. As market speculations previously indicated that Huawei might use 5nm in its next Kirin SoC, there seems to be a twist in Huawei’s plans.

According to Wccftech, the next Kirin SoC for the Mate 70 series will likely be mass-produced using SMIC’s N+3 process, which offers higher density compared to the N+2 variant. The move means that instead of transitioning to SMIC’s 5nm, Huawei’s latest Kirin SoC may choose to stay with 7nm.

It is worth noting that even under the U.S. export control, SMIC is said to successfully produce 5nm chips using DUV lithography instead of EUV, which is typically required for 5nm production. However, as the high cost and low yield of DUV make it a challenging feat for most manufacturers, Huawei’s decision may be practical.

As previously reported by the Financial Times, industry sources have indicated that SMIC’s prices for 5nm and 7nm processes are 40% to 50% higher than TSMC’s, while the yield less than one-third of TSMC’s. Later, it was estimated that SMIC’s 5nm chip prices would be up to 50 percent more expensive than TSMC’s on the same lithography, meaning that Huawei would face a tough time selling its Mate 70 series to consumers with a decent margin if it attempts to absorb a majority of those component costs.

Therefore, Wccftech now states that the Kirin 9100 might be fabricated using the 7nm process. By employing the N+3 node, it could achieve a higher density than the Kirin 9010 and the Kirin 9000S, which are manufactured by the N+2 node. This improvement means that the Kirin 9100 will have a higher transistor count, leading to better performance per watt and improved power efficiency.

Alongside the new chipset for the Mate 70 family, Huawei is rumored to be testing the same N+3 technology for its ARM-based hardware, the report notes.

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• [News] Huawei Reportedly to Launch Kirin 9100 with Superior Performance to Snapdragon 8 Gen 2
• [News] SMIC Reportedly to Manufacture 5nm Chips for Huawei Without EUV Machinery

(Photo credit: Hisilison)