With the widespread adoption of AI, the demand for GPUs and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is soaring. The Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan (SEAJ) has revised its forecast for sales of Japanese-made semiconductor equipment, predicting that for the first time in history, sales will exceed JPY 4 trillion in the 2024 fiscal year. It is also estimated that sales will further exceed JPY 5 trillion in the 2026 fiscal year.

Per a report by Nikkei on July 5th, SEAJ’s forecast report indicates that for the 2024 fiscal year (April 2024 to March 2025), the sales of Japanese-made chip equipment (including sales by Japanese companies both domestically and overseas) have been revised from the previous estimate of JPY 4.0348 trillion (in January 2024) to JPY 4.2522 trillion, marking a significant increase of 15.0% compared to the 2023 fiscal year.

This will be the first time in history that annual sales exceed JPY 4 trillion, setting a new record. The main reason for this growth is the widespread adoption of AI, which has led to a strong demand for GPUs used in AI servers and a continuous surge in demand for HBM used in conjunction with them.

Reportedly, SEAJ stated that, due to anticipated steady investments in logic/foundry and memory, the sales forecast for Japanese chip equipment in the 2025 fiscal year (April 2025 to March 2026) has been revised upward from JPY 4.4383 trillion to JPY 4.6774 trillion, representing a 10.0% year-on-year increase.

Additionally, the demand for chip equipment is expected to be driven by AI-related semiconductors, resulting in a projected 10.0% year-on-year increase in sales for the 2026 fiscal year, reaching JPY 5.1452 trillion. This will mark the first time annual sales exceed JPY 5 trillion.

The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for Japanese chip equipment sales during the 2024-2026 period is estimated to be 11.6%. Japan’s global market share for chip equipment (in terms of sales) is approximately 30%, making it the second-largest in the world, following the United States.

SEAJ has indicated that in addition to servers, AI will be integrated into into PCs and smartphones at a faster pace in the near future. SEAJ President Toshiki Kawai mentioned that by 2027, 30-40% of PCs and smartphones are expected to incorporate AI, which is anticipated to have a more significant impact on increasing the demand for chip equipment compared to servers.

Toshiki Kawai further mentioned that as the self-sufficiency in manufacturing equipment remains insufficient in the Chinese market, the demand remains consistent and robust for Japanese-made equipment.

On June 25th, SEAJ released statistics indicating that in May 2024, Japan’s semiconductor equipment sales (3-month moving average, including exports) reached JPY 400.954 billion. This marked a significant increase of 27.0% compared to the same month last year, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth and the largest increase in 19 months (since October 2022, with a growth of 27.6%).

Monthly sales exceeded JPY 300 billion for the seventh consecutive month and surpassed JPY 400 billion for the first time in history, setting a new monthly sales record (previously, the highest record was JPY 389.106 billion in April 2024).

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(Photo credit: TEL)

According to a report from the Commercial Times, Tokyo Electron (TEL), a leading global semiconductor equipment manufacturer, is the only company in the world that possesses equipment for four consecutive processes: deposition, coating/developing, etching, and cleaning, which are crucial steps before wafers enter the process of EUV lithography. As the semiconductor nodes keep advancing, the Japanese semiconductor giant would significantly benefit from the trend by its extensive product line.

Hiromitsu Kambara, TEL’s President & Representative Director of TEL Miyagi Ltd., stated that as chip design evolves, etching technology is continuously advancing towards 3D development, with vertical stacking making more efficient use of space. However, the increase in the number of stacking layers leads to an increase in the number of deposition cycles and etching times, thereby necessitating the growth in the number of required machines.

While EUV bellwether companies enjoy nearly 100% market share in the sector, TEL, with its close collaboration with the industry leader in the coating/developing process, could also dominate in this field, the report noted. In other words, as EUV shipments increase, TEL will benefit concurrently. TEL also disclosed that it has already established a research and development center in Taiwan and will soon expand its cleanroom facilities to collaborate with the most advanced process manufacturers.

When paired with partner Litho (lithography) machines, TEL has nearly 100% market share in the coating/developing market. Currently, TEL operates in 19 countries with a total of 87 locations, according to Commercial Times.

As the semiconductor industry enters the angstrom era, fabs are increasingly relying on equipment precision, for which TEL has prepared accordingly. TEL’s latest product, Grinder, is designed not only to ensure wafer flatness but also to achieve partial etching flatness and surface cleaning. This allows the equipment to measure wafers’ flatness and cleanliness effectively.

Sales of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in Japan have been reportedly strong, with April 2024 witnessing the largest increase in sales in 17 months, continuing to surpass the JPY 300 billion mark and setting a new record for the highest monthly sales. The sales volume for the period from January to April also reached a historical high for the same period.

The Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan (SEAJ) announced on May 27th that the sales of Japanese-made semiconductor equipment in April 2024 (three-month moving average, including exports) reached JPY 389.106 billion, an increase of 15.7% compared to the same month last year. This marks the fourth consecutive month of growth, showing the largest increase in 17 months (since November 2022), with a remarkable growth rate of 19.1%.

Monthly sales have exceeded JPY 300 billion for the sixth consecutive month, surpassing the previous record of JPY 380.929 billion in September 2022, setting a new historical high for single-month sales.

Compared to the previous month (March 2024), sales grew by 6.4%, marking the sixth consecutive month of month-on-month growth.

The cumulative sales of Japanese semiconductor equipment from January to April 2024 reached JPY 1.387079 trillion, a 9.4% increase compared to the same period last year, setting a new historical high for this period.

Japan’s global market share of semiconductor equipment (calculated based on sales) stands at 30%, making it the second-largest in the world, following the United States.

In a financial report press release on May 10, Japanese chip equipment giant Tokyo Electron (TEL) indicated that the increased demand for DDR5 and HBM from the second half of this year is expected to drive a recovery in investment in the leading-edge DRAM.

As a result, the global market size for front-end chip manufacturing equipment (Wafer Fab Equipment; WFE) in 2024 is projected to grow by 5% year-on-year to approximately 100 billion USD, matching the current historical high recorded in 2022 (around USD 100 billion). Additionally, with continued growth in AI servers and a recovery in demand for PCs and smartphones, the WFE market is anticipated to see a double-digit increase (over 10%) in 2025 compared to 2024.

In a financial report press release on May 9, semiconductor equipment company Screen Holdings stated that due to investments in mature processes in China and investments in the most advanced processes in Taiwan, the WFE market is expected to grow in 2024, with an estimated annual increase of about 5%.

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(Photo credit: TEL)

On March 25, the Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan (SEAJ) disclosed its latest statistics.

The data revealed that in February 2024, the sales of Japanese semiconductor equipment (3-month moving average, including exports) reached JPY 317.418 billion, representing a growth of 7.8% compared to the same month last year. This also marked a second back-to-back month of growth, achieving the largest increase in 10 months (9.8% growth since April 2023).

Moreover, monthly sales crossed the 300 billion-yen threshold for the fourth consecutive month, hitting a new high over the 10 months (JPY 336.162 billion since April 2023).

Compared to the previous month, Japanese semiconductor equipment sales rose by 0.8%, marking the fourth consecutive month of monthly growth. In the cumulative period from January to February 2024, its sales stood at JPY 6,322.93 billion (+6.4% YoY), setting a new record high in the same period of previous years.

Semiconductor equipment manufacturers from Japan include Tokyo Electron (TEL), Advantest, Screen, Kokusai Electric, Hitachi High-Tech, Nikon, and Canon, etc.

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(Photo credit: SEAJ Official Website)

The world’s top five semiconductor equipment manufacturers have released their latest financial reports, signaling a surge in demand for advanced manufacturing equipment and positive signs of industry recovery.

The US has continuously thwarted efforts by equipment suppliers to export advanced machinery to China—citing national security concerns—mid its ongoing tech conflict. How have companies like Applied Materials, ASML, TEL, Lam Research, and KLA been impacted by the US’s stringent export controls on China?

Applied Materials

Applied Materials reported US$6.71B in 1Q24 earnings—marking a less than 1% decline in revenue. The Chinese market, doubling its revenue to $3B last quarter, emerged as a bright spot, jumping from a 17% share a year ago to 45%.

This surge is primarily due to China’s urgent push to build capacity for internet devices, telecommunications, automotive, power, and sensors. Despite not expecting to maintain the current growth rate, Applied Materials believes the continued demand for more chips will drive market development.

ASML

ASML, seen as a weathervane for the industry, reported 4Q23 net sales of €7.2B, up from €6.7B in Q3. With annual sales reaching €27.6B in 2023 and a 26.3% sales share in China, ASML has surpassed South Korea to become its second-largest market.

However, ASML warns that geopolitical tensions and potential US export control expansions to China remain operational risks. The company estimates that US and Dutch export controls could reduce its sales of mid-range DUV equipment to China by about 10–15% this year.

TEL

TEL posted 3Q24 revenues of ¥463.6B, with China accounting for 46.9% of its revenue, a 42.8% QoQ increase. TEL expects continued strong demand from China, noting that the country produces only a small portion of the chips it needs and will actively invest to reduce reliance on foreign technology. This momentum is expected to continue into 2025.

Lam Research

Lam Research saw a 7.9% QoQ increase in 2Q24 revenue to $3.76B, with the share of revenue from the Chinese market decreasing from 48% to 40%. With the semiconductor industry expected to grow robustly in the coming years, driven by innovations like AI, Lam Research is poised to benefit.

The company expects equipment expenditures by DRAM manufacturers to grow due to increased HBM production and process transitions, while NAND manufacturers’ expenditures will strengthen with technological upgrades.

KLA

KLA reported a 16.7% YoY decrease in 2Q24 revenue to $2.487B, with China remaining its largest revenue contributor, though its share dropped from 43% in Q1 to 41%. KLA estimates a mid-point revenue of $2.3B for this quarter.

The demand for wafer fabrication equipment is expected to reach the higher end of the $80B range in 2024, with the second half of the year anticipated to outperform the first.

(Photo credit: iStock)