According to a report by Taiwan’s Commercial Times, NVIDIA is facing repercussions from the US chip restriction, leading to controls on the export of high-end AI GPU chips to certain countries in the Middle East. Although NVIDIA claims that these controls won’t have an immediate impact on its performance, and industry insiders in the Taiwanese supply chain believe the initial effects are minimal. However, looking at the past practice of prohibiting exports to China, this could potentially trigger another wave of preemptive stockpiling.

Industry sources from the supply chain note that following the US restrictions on exporting chips to China last year, the purchasing power of Chinese clients increased rather than decreased, resulting in a surge in demand for secondary-level and below chip products, setting off a wave of stockpiling.

Take NVIDIA’s previous generation A100 chip for instance. After the US implemented export restrictions on China, NVIDIA replaced it with the lower-tier A800 chip, which quickly became a sought-after product in the Chinese market, driving prices to surge. It’s reported that the A800 has seen a cumulative price increase of 60% from the start of the year to late August, and it remains one of the primary products ordered by major Chinese CSPs.

Furthermore, the recently launched L40S GPU server by NVIDIA in August has become a market focal point. While it may not match the performance of systems like HGX H100/A100 in large-scale AI algorithm training, it outperforms the A100 in AI inference or small-scale AI algorithm training. As the L40S GPU is positioned in the mid-to-low range, it is currently not included in the list of chips subject to export controls to China.

Supply chain insiders suggest that even if the control measures on exporting AI chips to the Middle East are further enforced, local clients are likely to turn to alternatives like the A800 and  L40S. However, with uncertainty about whether the US will extend the scope of controlled chip categories, this could potentially trigger another wave of purchasing and stockpiling.

The primary direct beneficiaries in this scenario are still the chip manufacturers. Within the Taiwanese supply chain, Wistron, which supplies chip brands in the AI server front-end GPU board sector, stands to gain. Taiwanese supply chain companies producing A800 series AI servers and the upcoming L40S GPU servers, such as Quanta, Inventec, Gigabyte, and ASUS, have the opportunity to benefit as well.

(Photo credit: NVIDIA)