Due to material shortages caused by insufficient semiconductor supply, to date, power management IC (PMIC) prices remain on an upward trend, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. Average selling price (ASP) for 1H22 is forecast to increase by nearly 10%, reaching a record six year high.

In terms of the global supply chain, in addition to the production capacity of major IDM manufacturers including TI, Infineon, ADI, STMicroelectronics, NXP, ON Semiconductor, Renesas, Microchip, ROHM (Maxim has been acquired by ADI and Dialog by Renesas), IC design houses such as Qualcomm and MediaTek (MTK) have obtained a certain level of production capacity from foundries. Of these, TI is in a leadership position and the aforementioned companies possess a combined market share of over 80%.

In terms of product structure, unrelenting demand from the consumer electronics, telecommunications, industrial control systems, and automotive end-user sectors and product innovation driven by industrial transformation will push a dramatic increase in global market demand for PMICs. The largest application for PMICs is consumer electronic products and there are near term rumblings in demand for notebooks, Chromebooks, smartphones, and televisions. In addition, restocking impetus for a small number of structurally simple items such as low drop-out regulators (LDO) has encountered a real slowdown. However, since the demand placed on PMICs by electronic products is a structural increase, certain models are still experiencing shortages. Qualcomm and MTK are limited by a shortage of mature production capacity on the foundry end, even resulting in a tightening of inventory for PMICs earmarked for self-use.

Furthermore, recovery in the automotive market and rapid growth in electric vehicles, automotive electronics, and advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) have increased demand in power source control and management and charging technology. In addition, automotive-use ICs are required to pass a number of inspections and must guarantee consistency and a zero failure rate. Currently, IDM companies’ automotive IC order backlog stretches until the end of 2022. Due to factors such as production running at full capacity and a shortage of raw materials, PMIC suppliers have currently announced longer lead times with consumer electronic IC lead times increasing to 12~26 weeks, automotive IC lead times reaching 40~52 weeks, and a cessation of orders for certain exclusive production models.

TrendForce expects 4Q21 demand for PMICs to remain strong with shortages in overall production capacity. Led by IDM companies, PMIC pricing will remain high. Despite variables related to the pandemic and the difficulties of greatly increasing 8 inch wafer production capacity, TI’s new fab RFAB2 will begin mass production in 2H22. In addition, due to the plans of foundries to carry forward a portion of 8 inch wafer PMIC manufacturing to 12 inch, there is a high likelihood of a moderation in PMIC shortages. However, close attention must still be paid to changes in future market supply.

For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms. Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforce.com

There are four major categories of automotive DRAM applications, including infotainment, ADAS, telematics, and D-clusters (digital instrument clusters), according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. Of the four categories, infotainment applications require the highest DRAM content, although DRAM consumption per vehicle across all four categories remains relatively low at the moment. In contrast to ADAS, infotainment applications present a lower barrier to entry for companies, since current legislations and automotive safety standards governing infotainment are not as stringent, making infotainment a highly attractive market for various semiconductor companies and memory suppliers. TrendForce expects infotainment to remain the primary driver of automotive DRAM consumption through 2024, while all four automotive DRAM applications will together likely comprise more than 3% of total DRAM consumption as autonomous driving technology progresses toward higher levels. As such, automotive DRAM applications represents an emerging sector whose potential for growth should not be underestimated.

TrendForce further indicates that the safety requirements of automotive parts are far higher than those of consumer electronics in terms of both quality and durability. As a result, the release of new vehicle models may take up to 3-5 years from development and verification to release. Vehicles still under development are therefore likely to greatly surpass existing models in terms of both memory content and specifications.

Infotainment will comprise the majority of automotive DRAM consumption, while total automotive DRAM consumption is still relatively low

Infotainment applications represent the highest bit consumption among the major automotive DRAM applications, due to the computing demand of basic media entertainment functionalities in vehicles now. However, most vehicles with these functionalities require only about 1-2GB (gigabytes) of DRAM, which is the current mainstream, since infotainment applications are still relatively basic. As infotainment systems evolve towards higher image qualities and higher video bitrates, solutions requiring 4GB in DRAM content are also under development, with high-end systems transitioning to 8GB in DRAM content. On the other hand, given the close viewing distance involved in automotive infotainment, video bitrates must be sufficiently high to minimize lag. DRAM specifications for infotainment applications are therefore gradually shifting from DDR3 2/4Gb (gigabits) to LPDDR4 8Gb in order to satisfy the high data transfer speed and bandwidth required to achieve a sufficiently high video bitrate and optimal viewing experience.

With regards to ADAS, development is currently divided into two architectures: centralized vs. decentralized (or distributed) systems. Decentralized systems include such devices as reverse parking sensors, which require about 2/4Gb of DRAM. Centralized systems, however, require 2/4GB of DRAM, since data collected from various sensors located throughout the vehicle are transferred to and computed in a central control unit in centralized ADAS. Most vehicles with autonomous driving capabilities currently available on the market are still equipped with ADAS levels 1-2 and therefore require relatively low DRAM content. Going forward, as the development of autonomous driving technologies moves to level 3 and beyond, along with the potential inclusion of AI functionalities, vehicles will need to be able to integrate and process enormous amounts of data collected from sensors in real-time, as well as perform immediate decision-making with the collected data. Given the high bandwidth required for such operations, there will be a corresponding increase in automotive demand for higher-spec DRAM as well, and automotive DRAM for ADAS applications is expected to transition from DDR3 to LPDDR4/4X and even LPDDR5 or GDDR5/HBM later on, though this transition will require more time before it can take place, due to existing regulations.

The mainstream memory products used for telematics, or automotive communication systems, are MCP (Multi Chip Package) solutions. Due to the frequency and compatibility requirements of baseband processors contained in these systems, all telematics applications require the use of LPDRAM. As V2V and V2X gradually become necessities in the auto industry, automakers will place a high importance on memory bandwidth, meaning automotive DRAM for telematics will gradually shift from mainstream LPDDR2 solutions to LPDDR4/LPDDR5. Even so, the growth of telematics will depend on the pace of global 5G infrastructure build-out, since telematics requires 5G networks for fast peer-to-peer connections. As for D-clusters, DRAM bit consumption per vehicle for this application category comes to either 2Gb or 4Gb, depending on the individual vehicle’s degree of digitization for its instrumental panel. However, DRAM consumption for D-clusters is not expected to undergo significant future growths, and D-clusters may potentially be merged with infotainment into a single centralized system going forward.

For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms. Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforce.com

The LiDAR market encompasses such applications as ADAS, autonomous vehicles, industries, deliveries, and smart cities; while these applications are estimated to have driven the LiDAR market to reach US$682 million in revenue in 2020, total LiDAR revenue is projected to further expand to $2.932 billion in 2025, a 34% CAGR, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations.

TrendForce indicates that, with regards to automotive LiDAR applications (ADAS and autonomous vehicles), automakers have continued to release NEVs in spite of the COVID-19 pandemic’s negative impact on the global automotive industry in 2020. Furthermore, these automakers are also equipping ADAS on high-end conventional gasoline vehicles and NEVs alike. As an essential component in SAE levels 4-5 autonomous vehicles, LiDAR systems are used by automakers to both build their databases and increase vehicle location accuracy. In addition to the aforementioned vehicles, automotive LiDARs are also featured in autonomous buses, robo-taxis, and self-driving trucks. Total automotive LiDAR revenue is expected to reach $2.434 billion in 2025. At the moment, major automotive LiDAR suppliers include Velodyne, Valeo, Quanergy Systems, Inc., ibeo, Continental, LeddarTech, INNOVIZ, HESAI, LeiShen, and Luminar, while major LiDAR laser suppliers include OSRAM, Laser Components, Excelitas, and Hamamatsu.

With regards to delivery and logistics, the rising popularity of e-commerce has prompted online vendors and delivery companies to lower their last-mile delivery costs by performing deliveries with autonomous delivery robots, bicycle couriers, and self-driving trucks, thereby leading to an increased demand for delivery robots with self-navigation and autonomous decision-making capabilities. Major e-commerce companies that have been promoting these delivery methods include Alibaba, Amazon, FedEx, and Jingdong (also known as JD.com).

Likewise, the growth of the industrial automation market has been lackluster due to the pandemic, with most companies having deferred their previous expansion plans in consideration of budgets, although certain companies wary of potential future shortages in human labor are investing additional capital into industrial automation development against the market downtrend. Having undergone various deferred developments throughout 2020, the European and North American markets are expected to see surging demand for industrial automation applications starting in 3Q21. On the whole, TrendForce forecasts a $469 million revenue for the industry and delivery LiDAR markets in 2025. Major LiDAR suppliers in these markets currently include SICK, Hokuyo, OMRON, and Velodyne. With increasing market demand on ADAS, autonomous vehicles and industrial automation, LiDAR market value will be encouraged by rising LiDAR usage volume.

For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Optoelectronics Research, please click here, or email Ms. Grace Li from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforce.com