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Taiwan’s semiconductor giant, TSMC, faces overwhelming demand for its 3nm technology, with major clients like Apple and NVIDIA fully allocate its production capacity.
According to a report from Commercial Times, orders are expected to be filled through 2026. Reportedly, TSMC is planning to raise its 3nm prices by over 5%, and advanced packaging prices are anticipated to increase by approximately 10% to 20% next year.
The members of TSMC’s 3nm family include N3, N3E, N3P, as well as N3X and N3A. As the existing N3 technology continues to be upgraded, N3E, which began mass production in the fourth quarter of last year, targets applications such as AI accelerators, high-end smartphones, and data centers.
N3P is scheduled for mass production in the second half of this year and is expected to become mainstream for applications in mobile devices, consumer products, base stations, and networking through 2026. N3X and N3A are customized for high-performance computing and automotive clients.
Per the industry sources cited by the same report, TSMC’s Zhunan advanced packaging plant (AP6), operational for a year now, has become Taiwan’s largest CoWoS base with the equipment moved into its AP6C plant. In the third quarter, CoWoS monthly production capacity is expected to double from 17,000 to 33,000 wafers.
Industry sources cited by the report further suggests that while AI accelerators do not use the most cutting-edge manufacturing processes, they rely heavily on advanced packaging technology. The ability of global semiconductor companies to secure more advanced packaging capacity from TSMC will determine their market penetration and control.
TSMC’s advanced packaging capacity is scarce, with primary customer NVIDIA having the highest demand, occupying about half of the capacity, followed closely by AMD. Broadcom, Amazon, and Marvell have also expressed strong interest in using advanced packaging processes. With gross margins close to 80%, NVIDIA is said to agree to price increases to secure more advanced packaging capacity, thereby distancing itself from competitors.
Previously, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang emphasized that TSMC is not just manufacturing wafers but also handling numerous supply chain issues. He also agreed that the current pricing is too low and would support TSMC’s price increase actions.
The industry sources cited by Commercial Times have indicated that TSMC plans to add CoWoS-related equipment by the third quarter and has requested equipment manufacturers to dispatch more engineers to fully staff its Longtan AP3, Zhunan AP6, and Central Taiwan Science Park AP5 plants.
In addition to Zhunan’s AP6C, the Central Taiwan Science Park plant, which originally only handled the latter stages of oS, will also gradually transition to CoW processes. Meanwhile, the Chiayi site is in the land preparation stage and is expected to progress faster than Tongluo.
Reportedly, industry sources further reveal that the prices for advanced process nodes such as 3nm and 5nm will also be adjusted. Particularly, strong demand for 3nm orders in the second half of the year is expected to drive utilization rates to near full capacity, extending through 2025. The 5nm process is experiencing similar demand dynamics, driven by AI needs.
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The continuous increase in silicon content driven by AI servers, high-performance computing (HPC) applications, and the AI integration of high-end smartphones has led to a surge in demand for semiconductors. According to a report from the Economic Daily News, major companies such as Apple, Qualcomm, NVIDIA, and AMD are reportedly securing substantial production capacity for TSMC’s 3nm process family. This has resulted in a queue of clients stretching all the way to 2026.
TSMC has a consistent policy of not commenting on individual client information. Regarding whether the high demand for production capacity will lead to price increases to reflect its value, TSMC emphasizes that its pricing strategy is always strategically oriented rather than opportunistically driven. TSMC will continue to work closely with clients to provide value.
As per sources cited by the same report, TSMC is not a company that raises prices arbitrarily. Reflecting value does not equate directly to price increases, even though the company holds a leading edge in advanced process technology. There are various ways for TSMC to demonstrate value to its customers.
The members of TSMC’s 3nm family include N3, N3E, N3P, as well as N3X and N3A. As the existing N3 technology continues to be upgraded, N3E, which began mass production in the fourth quarter of last year, targets applications such as AI accelerators, high-end smartphones, and data centers. N3P is scheduled for mass production in the second half of this year and is expected to become mainstream for applications in mobile devices, consumer products, base stations, and networking through 2026. N3X and N3A are customized for high-performance computing and automotive clients.
Industry sources cited by Economic Daily News in the report believe that with clients rushing to book production capacity, TSMC’s 3nm family will continue to experience tight supply over the next two years. This does not yet include Intel’s outsourcing demand for CPUs.
Due to the fact that TSMC’s 3nm family production capacity has already been fully allocated by customers for this year and next, the company’s plan to triple the relevant capacity this year compared to last year is still insufficient. To ensure an uninterrupted supply for the next two years, TSMC has implemented several measures to expand its production capacity.
Previously, during an earnings call, the company announced that due to robust demand, its strategy includes converting some 5nm equipment to support 3nm production. Industry sources cited by the report also reveal that TSMC’s total 3nm family capacity is continuously increasing, with monthly production capacity expected to reach between 120,000 and 180,000 wafers.
Meanwhile, the sources cited by the Economic Daily News indicate that the main sources of orders for TSMC’s 3nm family include major clients such as Apple, Qualcomm, NVIDIA, and AMD. Apple is expected to launch the iPhone 16 series as early as September, which is anticipated to be the first iPhone with AI capabilities, potentially sparking a new wave of upgrades among Apple fans.
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The 2024 Computex Taipei has kicked off, with NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang delivering a speech on the industry’s prospects and future amidst the AI wave. According to a report from Commercial Times, during a media interview on the evening of June 3, Huang revealed plans for NVIDIA to establish an R&D center in Taiwan within the next five years.
Jensen Huang pointed out that NVIDIA already has a great AI research team. He confirmed the importance of Taiwanese partners, stating that TSMC is very important to NVIDIA’s operations, as well as expressing gratitude to partners such as Foxconn, Quanta, and ASUS for their support.
Huang further mentioned that within the next five years, NVIDIA will set up a large design center in Taiwan, indicating that the GPU giant is looking for a very spacious location and will hire at least 1,000 engineers.
When asked by the media about the speculation regarding his meeting with AMD CEO Lisa Su, Huang revealed that he did not attend her speech but acknowledged that AMD is a great company. He mentioned that he doesn’t expect to meet Su but didn’t rule it out the possiblity completely, adding that if it happens, he would welcome it.
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AMD Chairman and CEO Lisa Su unveiled the company’s latest AI chip, MI325X, at the opening of Computex Taipei on June 3. She emphasized that the MI325X boasts 30% faster computing speed compared to NVIDIA’s H200. According to a report from CNA, Su also announced that AMD plans to release a new generation of AI chips each respective year, hinting at a strong competitive stance against NVIDIA.
Lisa Su announced that the MI300 series is AMD’s fastest progressing product. The tech giant’s next-generation AI chip, MI325X, features HBM3e and is built on the CDNA 3 architecture.
According to Su, AMD MI325X outperforms NVIDIA’s H200 in performance and bandwidth, more than twice than that of NVIDIA’s H200. On the other hand, MI325X delivers 30% faster computing speed compared to the H200.
Furthermore, Su also announced that AMD will release MI350 in 2025, which will be manufactured with 3nm process, while MI400 is expected to follow, launched in 2026.
On June 3, Lisa Su stated that AMD will continue its collaboration with TSMC, advancing process technology to the 3nm and even 2nm nodes. Yet, Su did not directly address the previous market rumors suggesting that AMD might switch to Samsung’s 3nm technology.
Previously, as per a report on May 29th from The Korea Economic Daily, it has speculated that AMD is likely to become a customer of Samsung Electronics’ 3nm GAA process. Reportedly, during AMD CEO Lisa Su’s appearance at the 2024 ITF World, which was hosted by the Belgian microelectronics research center imec, Su revealed that AMD plans to use the 3nm GAA process for mass-producing next-generation chips.
Per the same report, Lisa Su stated that 3nm GAA transistors can enhance efficiency and performance, with improvements in packaging and interconnect technology. This will make AMD products more cost-effective and power-efficient. The report further addressed that, as Samsung is currently the only chip manufacturer with commercialized 3nm GAA process technology, Su’s comments were interpreted as indicating that AMD will officially collaborate with Samsung for 3nm production.
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According to a report from Bloomberg, US officials have slowed down the issuance of licenses for chip manufacturers like NVIDIA and AMD to export large quantities of AI accelerators to the Middle East. Meanwhile, officials are conducting a national security assessment of AI developments in the region.
As per Bloomberg’s report citing sources, it is still unclear how long the assessment will take and what exactly constitutes a large-scale export. They said that officials are particularly concerned about large-scale sales because countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia are looking to import significant quantities of chips for AI data centers.
AI accelerators can help data centers process the massive amounts of information required for developing AI chatbots and other tools. They have become essential equipment for companies and governments seeking to build AI infrastructure.
Reportedly, sources have revealed that slowing down exports is intended to give Washington time to formulate a comprehensive strategy on how advanced chips should be deployed overseas. Some of these sources mentioned that this includes negotiating who will manage and secure the facilities used to train AI models.
The US Department of Commerce stated in a statement that “protecting national security” is the top priority.
“With regards to the most cutting edge technologies, we conduct extensive due diligence through an interagency process, thoroughly reviewing license applications from applicants who intend to ship these advanced technologies around the world,” a representative for the department said. “As always, we remain committed to working with our partners in the Middle East and around the world to safeguard our technological ecosystem.”
Addressing national security concerns, earlier this month, the U.S. government has reportedly revoked the licenses of Intel and Qualcomm to supply semiconductor chips used in laptops and handsets to Huawei. According to Reuters citing sources, some companies received notices on May 7th, and the revocation of the licenses took immediate effect.
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(Photo credit: NVIDIA)