The continuous increase in silicon content driven by AI servers, high-performance computing (HPC) applications, and the AI integration of high-end smartphones has led to a surge in demand for semiconductors. According to a report from the Economic Daily News, major companies such as Apple, Qualcomm, NVIDIA, and AMD are reportedly securing substantial production capacity for TSMC’s 3nm process family. This has resulted in a queue of clients stretching all the way to 2026.

TSMC has a consistent policy of not commenting on individual client information. Regarding whether the high demand for production capacity will lead to price increases to reflect its value, TSMC emphasizes that its pricing strategy is always strategically oriented rather than opportunistically driven. TSMC will continue to work closely with clients to provide value.

As per sources cited by the same report, TSMC is not a company that raises prices arbitrarily. Reflecting value does not equate directly to price increases, even though the company holds a leading edge in advanced process technology. There are various ways for TSMC to demonstrate value to its customers.

The members of TSMC’s 3nm family include N3, N3E, N3P, as well as N3X and N3A. As the existing N3 technology continues to be upgraded, N3E, which began mass production in the fourth quarter of last year, targets applications such as AI accelerators, high-end smartphones, and data centers. N3P is scheduled for mass production in the second half of this year and is expected to become mainstream for applications in mobile devices, consumer products, base stations, and networking through 2026. N3X and N3A are customized for high-performance computing and automotive clients.

Source: TSMC

Industry sources cited by Economic Daily News in the report believe that with clients rushing to book production capacity, TSMC’s 3nm family will continue to experience tight supply over the next two years. This does not yet include Intel’s outsourcing demand for CPUs.

Due to the fact that TSMC’s 3nm family production capacity has already been fully allocated by customers for this year and next, the company’s plan to triple the relevant capacity this year compared to last year is still insufficient. To ensure an uninterrupted supply for the next two years, TSMC has implemented several measures to expand its production capacity.

Previously, during an earnings call, the company announced that due to robust demand, its strategy includes converting some 5nm equipment to support 3nm production. Industry sources cited by the report also reveal that TSMC’s total 3nm family capacity is continuously increasing, with monthly production capacity expected to reach between 120,000 and 180,000 wafers.

Meanwhile, the sources cited by the Economic Daily News indicate that the main sources of orders for TSMC’s 3nm family include major clients such as Apple, Qualcomm, NVIDIA, and AMD. Apple is expected to launch the iPhone 16 series as early as September, which is anticipated to be the first iPhone with AI capabilities, potentially sparking a new wave of upgrades among Apple fans.

Source: TSMC

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(Photo credit: TSMC)

According to Daily Telegraph, Coherent’s fab located in Newton Aycliffe, County Durham, Northern England, is facing potential sale or closure as Apple ceased a supply agreement. Currently, the plant is under review, which might turn out to be sold. Coherent has issued a last-time-buy notice to its customers.

The UK fab primarily manufactured III-V compound semiconductor RF microelectronics and optoelectronic devices for communications, aerospace and defense sectors. The collaboration between the plant and Apple involved Face ID feature in iPhones.

However, Apple had put an end to the related key product supply contract with Coherent in late fiscal 2023. In its latest financial report, Coherent noted a significant decline in sales of VCSEL products for 3D sensing in Apple’s iPhones, which had a remarkable impact on the company’s overall revenue.

It’s worth noting that Coherent’s fab laid off over 100 employees in April 2023, retaining around 250. Later, Coherent indicated in the last-time-buy notice that Apple’s termination of the supply agreement further placed the ongoing viability of the business in doubt. A strategic review is undertaken, with potential new technologies or a sale as options under consideration. It remains to be seen if the UK government will weigh in to broker a sale to an acceptable buyer.

• Apple’s Supply Chain Changes with the Evolution of VCSEL Technologies

Likewise, another optical and photonics device manufacturer, Lumentum, has fallen into a similar situation. Per foreign media reports in March 2024, Lumentum would dismiss 750 staffs, which accounts for 10% of its global workforce at the time.

Lumentum is a core supplier of VCSEL lasers for Apple’s iPhone 14 Pro series. However, Ming-Chi Kuo, renowned Apple analyst, revealed in early 2023 that Sony would replace Lumentum in design, and become the exclusive supplier of VCSEL products for the LiDAR scanner in the iPhone 15 Pro series. This variation implies a reduced market share for Lumentum in the VCSEL segment of iPhone.

Indeed, Apple has consistently updated its technologies in smartphones, resulting in corresponding structural and design adjustments and changes in its supplier lineup.

TrendForce’s latest research report, “2024 Infrared Sensing Application Market and Branding Strategies,” shows iPhone 15 Pro adopts Sony’s stacked structure technology, which integrates the VCSEL, driver IC, SPAD, and ISP (ASIC Chip) in a stacked structure. This approach significantly reduces system size while achieving high-speed response and high output power, providing better LiDAR scanning performance at the same power level, extending battery lifespan, and enhancing camera and augmented reality capabilities.

Furthermore, TrendForce’s survey reveals that Apple plans to introduce MetaLens technology in 2024 to reduce the size of emitting components, and to adopt under-display 3D sensing technology in 2027 to increase the display screen ratio. Under-display 3D sensing uses short-wave infrared VCSEL (SWIR VCSEL) to reduce interference from sunlight and ambient light and minimize the occurrence of white spots. Noticeably, 1,130nm VCSEL has achieved a PCE (Photoelectric Conversion Efficiency) of over 30%, and currently, ams OSRAM’s 1,130nm VCSEL can already deliver superior performance, enabling it to come out on top in the market.

Thereby, it is evident that the continuous evolution of Apple’s iPhone 3D sensing solutions has caused striking changes in the VCSEL ecosystem. With new manufacturers like Sony entering the supply chain, Coherent and Lumentum are suffering a gradual decline in their market shares.

• More Opportunities Emerge amid the Overwhelming Trend of AI

While consumer electronics remain a crucial market for VCSEL technology, the global AI wave is driving its increasing importance in data center, optical communication, and automotive LiDAR, which will position VCSEL as a vital support for implementing AI functionalities. For example, VCSEL is a perfect fit for short-distance optical interconnections in data center, underpinning the operation of cloud and edge computing infrastructure integral to AI computing.

Currently, photonics manufacturers are already gearing up to develop higher-performance VCSEL technology to meet potential demands in high-growth application areas such as AI, high-performance computing (HPC), networking, and automotive LiDAR. In this context, VCSEL market demand and market size are expected to enjoy ongoing growth, presenting more opportunities for related manufacturers and infusing new vigour into their business growth.

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(Photo credit: Apple)

As reported by the South Korean tech media outlet TheElec, South Korean smartphone giant Samsung is said to be planning to increase the production of phones manufactured by joint development manufacturers (JDM) in China from 4.4 million to 6.7 million units this year. The increased output from its JDM partners indicates that outsourced orders will account for 25% of Samsung’s smartphone production target for the year.

Reportedly, its JDM partners typically handles the production of low-end smartphones, being responsible for design and component procurement while Samsung provides the brand. For the past couple of years, the company has used JDM partners like Wintech to reduce its production cost for smartphones.

Furthermore, collaborating with JDM partners also enables Samsung to leverage the local manufacturers’ expertise in understanding trends. For instance, with the assistance of JDM partnerships, the Galaxy C55 was optimized locally for the Chinese market.

The number of Samsung smartphones produced by these JDM partners has also been steadily increasing in recent years. Data indicates that in 2019, JDM-produced phones accounted for less than 7% of Samsung’s smartphone output, but this year, that proportion has risen to 25%.

Regarding the current smartphone market in China, the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT) has released its April 2024 analysis of the Chinese mobile phone market, showing a year-on-year increase of 28.8% in mobile phone shipments to 24.071 million units during the period.

According to the data from CAICT, in terms of brands, local brands dominated with 85.5% of the shipments, approximately 20.576 million units, while overseas brands, including Apple, accounted for nearly 3.5 million units.

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(Photo credit: Samsung)

Just as generative AI is revolutionizing industries worldwide today by creating new opportunities, the concept of the Metaverse in 2021 was similarly embraced by technology giants as a strategic goal and vision for the future of the entire tech sector.

Microsoft, for instance, targeted the corporate segment of the Metaverse, showcasing the use of its mixed reality (MR) device, HoloLens 2, in manufacturing operations. NVIDIA introduced the Omniverse platform for image simulation, thereby facilitating the development of virtual environments within the Metaverse. There were also rumors about Google and Apple launching new virtual reality (VR) head-mounted devices. Perhaps most notably, Facebook’s name change to Meta was a clear indication of its commitment to this emerging field.

As Hype Fades, More Hardware and Content Are Needed to Strengthen the Foundation of the Metavers

Despite initial market optimism, the reality was that wearable technology had not reached maturity, and the quality of virtual content experiences fell short of expectations. As a result, there was insufficient momentum to drive the Metaverse forward in subsequent market developments. Many tech companies established departments dedicated to the Metaverse, but due to lackluster results and issues with resource allocation, these departments often faced workforce reductions, downsizing, or even complete dissolution.

Declining enthusiasm for the Metaverse primarily stems not from a flaw in the idea of blending virtual and real worlds, but from the grandiosity of its concept. The essence of Industry 4.0, after all, revolves around enhancing production efficiency through the data-driven integration of physical and digital realms.

This is a proven approach. Nevertheless, the challenge with the Metaverse lies in its ambitious scale. Without adequate software and hardware support, efforts to expand and implement it often fall short, yielding minimal benefits and, thus, diminishing its commercial appeal.

Essentially, the widespread adoption of technologies like head-mounted devices and a rich content library are vital for industry growth. In response, companies that develop VR and augment reality (AR) in recent years have pivoted their focus from the broader environmental framework towards improving wearable devices and creating engaging content. In doing so, they aim to boost the practical value of adopting VR and AR.

From Virtual Interaction to Spatial Computing, the Scope of Applications for Head-mounted Devices Continues to Expand

In 2023, according to TrendForce’s analysis, Meta’s Quest series dominated the global VR and MR device market, securing nearly 70% of total device shipments. This significant market share places Meta at the forefront, with Sony’s PS VR series ranking second, followed by other manufacturers like PICO and HTC. Entering the fray in 2024, Apple introduced its Vision Pro, which is expected to claim a 6% share of the global market.

Meta’s latest offering, the Quest 3, has adopted pancake lenses that enhance image clarity while slimming down the device’s profile. It is powered by the Qualcomm Snapdragon XR2 Gen 2, a (SoC) tailored for head-mounted devices that significantly boosts GPU and AI processing capabilities.

The Quest 3 marks a pivotal shift for Meta from VR to MR. Equipped with dual front-facing RGB cameras and advanced features like depth projection and room mapping, the Quest 3, alongside the higher-end Quest Pro, supports a range of MR applications. Additionally, the tracking capabilities of the Quest 3 are augmented by computer vision and machine learning technologies. With Meta’s ongoing collaboration with LG on new product development, the focus is now on extended reality (XR) applications linked with the television ecosystem.

Apple’s Vision Pro, which was launched in February 2024, has reignited market interest in VR.

This device fills a previously unaddressed gap in Apple’s portfolio by offering a VR head-mounted device that integrates seamlessly with iPhones, iPads, and other devices within Apple’s ecosystem, thereby enabling functions like image and video projection onto larger screens. The introduction of the Vision Pro brought the concept of spatial computing into the limelight, enabling users to interact with virtual objects in a natural and intuitive way and thus infusing fresh perspectives into the industry.

Moreover, at CES 2024, Sony unveiled an XR head-mounted device dubbed a “spatial content creation system.” Like the Apple Vision Pro, this device leverages the advantages of spatial computing. It’s designed as a commercial tool for developing 3D content, offering users precise and intuitive control over virtual objects, thereby simplifying the process of creating 3D models.

From Taiwan, ASUS has recently introduced its first AR glasses, the AirVision M1. These glasses are designed to function as a secondary screen, ideal for use outdoors or in situations where extra screens are necessary at home.

Taiwan-based Companies Expand into the Supply Chain for Headsets, Focusing on Optics, Chips, and Assembly

TrendForce analyst P. K. Tseng said that a critical aspect of the transformation for VR head-mounted devices is the increasing need for key components that are lighter and more compact, particularly pancake lenses, which are gaining importance due to their contribution to volume reduction.

However, the technological complexity and higher cost of manufacturing these advanced optical components mean that suppliers, such as GSEO and Young Optics, are relatively limited. This presents a blue ocean market opportunity, likely attracting more manufacturers to develop pancake lens components.

Furthermore, the trend is expected to drive demand for smaller-sized panels. While mainstream LCD panels continue to be widely used, the advent of devices like the Apple Vision Pro is anticipated to increase the adoption rate of Micro OLED panels.

Additionally, as standalone virtual devices become more mainstream in product design, and as the need for processing large volumes of image and sensor data independently by SoCs grows, demand will rise for dedicated chips used in VR and AR devices. For instance, MediaTek is rumored to be developing an exclusive AR chip for Meta.

System or device assembly is a key area of focus for Taiwan-based companies, particularly evident in the efforts of major ODMs like Quanta and Foxconn. These companies are enhancing their VR and AR hardware manufacturing through various strategies, including partnerships, mergers and acquisitions, and investment initiatives.

In the VR device supply chain, the strength of system assemblers lies in their ability to offer comprehensive product solutions, which expands the options available to prospective clients. The assembly of VR and AR devices presents unique challenges due to the necessity for high-quality image rendering and real-time motion capture. Numerous components are involved in the process.

Not all VR and AR device brands can develop head-mounted devices completely in-house, as demonstrated by companies like Meta and Sony. For newer market entrants, securing a comprehensive product solution that allows for future customization is a more desirable strategy. This demands that system assemblers have significant expertise in relevant technologies and ODM capabilities. As such, as opportunities in the VR and AR market continue to emerge, these assemblers are well-prepared to offer solutions for head-mounted devices.

Generative AI and Added-Value from Applications Will Sustain Future Growth Momentum

Beyond hardware, the focus on creating more content and valuable applications will be a major topic in the next phase of VR industry’s development, with generative AI poised to play a pivotal role.

Taking gaming as an example, VR game development is known to be exceedingly time-consuming, requiring developers to dedicate substantial amounts of time to coding. As a result, the games often lack diversity, customization, and meaningful game mechanics.

However, leveraging generative AI can expedite the game development process without sacrificing quality or increasing costs. Recent market analyses suggest that the adoption of generative AI could significantly reduce the time required to create XR learning modules from the 5-10 days typically seen in 2021 to less than 30 minutes today.

Consequently, major game engine providers like Unity are seizing this business opportunity. In mid-2023, Unity introduced a suite of generative AI development solutions tailored for VR game production. These solutions can be employed to create characters, objects, assets, and sound effects, thus significantly reducing development costs.

According to TrendForce’s research, global shipments of VR head-mounted devices are projected to register a slight year-on-year drop of 1.8%, but the annual total is still expected to surpass 9.3 million units.

Furthermore, with the releases of many new products ranging from chips and peripherals to complete systems, many of which were showcased at this year’s CES and MWC, there is strong bullish sentiment regarding the development of the VR industry. The strategies of major manufacturers for VR and AR devices also demonstrate intense efforts to explore new use cases beyond existing applications, or to expand into other commercial sectors such as remote assistance, virtual learning, and simulation training.

Additionally, in many countries, VR and AR are now being incorporated into medical treatments, such as psychological therapy and physical rehabilitation. Although the progress in promoting VR and AR technologies still depends on factors like pricing, specifications, and user experience, the expansion into new application markets is a positive development, particularly given the current shortage of content.

Therefore, the added-value provided by new applications will be a key determinant of the VR market’s growth momentum. Furthermore, the efficiency of using generative AI in content production holds the potential to propel device manufacturers into the next technological generation.

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(Photo credit: Apple)

As Apple keeps advancing in AI as well as developing its own in-house processors, industry sources indicated that the tech giant’s Chief Operating Officer (COO) Jeff Williams recently made a visit to TSMC, and was personally received by TSMC’s President, C.C. Wei, according a report by Economic Daily News.

The low-profile visit was made to secure TSMC’s advanced manufacturing capacity, potentially 2nm process, booked for Apple’s in-house AI-chips, according to the report.

Apple has been collaborating with TSMC for many years on the A-series processors used in iPhones. In recent years, Apple initiated the long-term Apple Silicon project, creating the M-series processors for MacBook and iPad, with Williams playing a key role. Thus, his recent visit to Taiwan has garnered significant industry attention.

Apple did not respond to the rumor. TSMC, on the other hand, has maintained its usual stance, not commenting on market speculations related to specific customers.

According to an earlier report from The Wallstreet Journal, Apple has been working closely with TSMC to design and produce its own AI chips tailored for data centers in the primary stage. It is suggested that Apple’s server chips may focus on executing AI models, particularly in AI inference, rather than AI training, where NVIDIA’s chips currently dominate.

Also, in a bid to seize the AI PC market opportunity, Apple’s new iPad Pro launched in early May has featured its in-house M4 chip. In an earlier report by Wccftech, Apple’s M4 chip adopts TSMC’s N3E process, aligning with Apple’s plans for a major performance upgrade for Mac.

In addition to Apple, with the flourishing of AI applications, TSMC has also reportedly beening working closely with the other two major AI giants, NVIDIA and AMD. It’s reported by the Economic Daily News that they have secured TSMC’s advanced packaging capacity for CoWoS and SoIC packaging through this year and the next, bolstering TSMC’s AI-related business orders.

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(Photo credit: TSMC)