1. Gloomy Global Economy Affects Smartwatch Sales, Predicted 2023 Shipments at 130 Million

In 2023, the trajectory of the smartwatch industry is shaped by two major forces. On one hand, it’s driven by the shift in demand from the smart wristband market, becoming a gateway for brand manufacturers to create market momentum on a global scale. However, it also grapples with the impact of the sluggish economy, which affects consumers’ disposable income, leading to a reduction in market demand.

It’s estimated that the market will grow to 130 million units by the end of 2023. Brand manufacturers’ share of shipments hasn’t seen significant changes, and they continue to introduce innovative products. Apple leads with over 30%, followed by Samsung at nearly 10%, alongside Huawei, Garmin, Fitbit and others.

2. Manufacturers Opt for More Cautious Strategies, Focusing on Minor Upgrades and Diversified Research

Given the uncertain landscape, major smartwatch manufacturers like Apple, Samsung, and Huawei are expected to embrace a more conservative development approach. While they will keep innovating and introducing new products, their design philosophy leans towards incremental upgrades.

High-end watch models will be introduced with caution, targeting well-defined niche markets. Furthermore, some brands are likely to venture into other smart wearable devices, but many of these new devices face challenges in terms of data analysis, application integration, and market maturity, which means it will take time before they become commercially viable.

3. AI Focus: Major Manufacturers Prioritize AI Integration for Accuracy and Innovation

Without making substantial changes to their existing structure, companies are proactively utilizing AI technology as the cornerstone of their development strategy. This approach yields benefits such as fine-tuning existing sensor data for more precise measurements and the creation of applications that cater to consumer needs.

As AI applications heavily rely on chip performance and battery life, companies like Apple are upgrading their chips. This move aims to elevate past auxiliary functions into mainstream operations through AI. Moreover, this technology may further integrate with their Vision Pro devices’ gesture controls, enhancing the overall user experience.

Source to China Times, as India continues to solidify its position in the global mobile phone manufacturing supply chain, industry analysts predict significant shifts in production dynamics. Apple, for instance, is expected to move 25% of its production to India by 2025, in addition to Chinese brands like Xiaomi, OPPO, and vivo, which have already established manufacturing operations in the country. This trend has led to a scenario where India has substantially reduced its reliance on importing mobile phones from China, posing a substantial challenge to Chinese smartphone manufacturers and potentially resulting in the loss of annual orders for up to 180 million devices.

TrendForce believes that while Apple has such plans in place, the actual execution and achievement of these goals may face challenges.

The typical process of an iPhone involves design work at Apple’s headquarters in the United States, the use of main chips from American chip manufacturers and foundry services from TSMC, key components supplied by companies in Japan and South Korea, and the provision of remaining parts by Chinese manufacturers. The final assembly takes place at Foxconn’s factory in Zhengzhou, China, before the phones are air-shipped to destinations worldwide.

Since September of the previous year, an increasing number of consumers have noticed the label “Assembled in India” on the packaging of their iPhone 14 devices. This indicates that a growing proportion of Apple’s phones are being produced in India. Apple’s plan to shift 25% of its production to India by 2025 aligns with this trend.

Meanwhile, Chinese smartphone manufacturers such as Xiaomi, OPPO, and vivo are also actively manufacturing in India, and Samsung currently produces all of its flagship phones in the country. These developments are reshaping the landscape of mobile phone trade between China and India. In 2014, China exported a staggering 180 million phones to India annually. However, as India’s mobile manufacturing ecosystem matures, its reliance on importing complete phones from China has dwindled.

Data from the Cellular Operators Association of India (COAI) reveals that, following Indian Prime Minister Modi’s “Make in India” push in 2015, India’s share of globally manufactured phones surged to 11%, surpassing Vietnam and making it the second-largest mobile phone manufacturing country after China. Additionally, statistics show that from 2014 to 2022, India’s cumulative mobile phone production exceeded 2 billion units, with a CAGR growth rate of 23%. (Image credit: Apple)

(Source: https://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20231004000745-260309?chdtv)

According to a report by Taiwan’s Economic Daily, TSMC is set to hold its Q3 earnings conference on October 19th. The market is eagerly anticipating insights from the company’s top executives on six key areas: the latest semiconductor market outlook, Q3 financial forecasts, the status of 3-nanometer chip orders, progress in advanced packaging expansion, capital expenditure updates, and the latest developments in the AI market.

During the conference, TSMC will also unveil its financial results for the previous quarter. Analysts are expecting TSMC’s Q3 consolidated revenue, when measured in USD, to grow by nearly 10%, with a chance of gross margin exceeding the company’s estimated median of 52.5%. This suggests that Q3 profits are likely to surpass those of Q2.

TSMC has already announced its combined revenue for July and August, which totaled NT$366.3 billion. Based on TSMC’s financial forecasts, Q3 consolidated revenue is expected to reach between $16.7 billion and $17.5 billion USD. Using an exchange rate of 30.8 NT dollars per USD, this translates to an expected consolidated revenue in NT dollars ranging from NT$514.4 billion to NT$539 billion.

In the first half of the year, TSMC’s capital expenditure was $9.94 billion in Q1 and $8.17 billion in Q2, totaling $18.11 billion. Securities analysts previously estimated that TSMC’s annual capital expenditure for this year could range from $32 billion to $36 billion USD, with the possibility of a decrease next year.

Some industry experts believe that as advanced manufacturing processes have advanced to 2 nanometers, the customer base for the latest processes has started to decrease. Looking at the 3-nanometer process that is already in mass production, only Apple is currently leading the adoption, while others like NVIDIA, Qualcomm, and MediaTek are expected to transition to the 3-nanometer process next year. As a result, TSMC is shifting its focus to expanding production in the more cost-effective advanced packaging sector, which is one of the key reasons for the decrease in TSMC’s capital expenditure.

Furthermore, TSMC is currently estimating that it will be the first to introduce an enhanced version of the 3-nanometer process next year, with expectations to transition to the 2-nanometer process by 2025, using a new Gate-All-Around (GAA) transistor architecture to replace the FinFET transistor architecture used for nearly a decade. This represents a significant step into a new generation of semiconductor technology. Additionally, capacity for advanced packaging is expected to double next year.

(Photo credit: TSMC)

According to a report from TechNews, Micro LED technology boasts superior qualities such as higher transparency, richer color saturation, increased brightness, enhanced efficiency, and lower power consumption. It also extends product lifespans, making it an optimal choice for automotive displays. However, it currently grapples with challenges related to cost, mass transfer, extensive inspections, and red light efficiency, posing obstacles to large-scale production.

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According to a report by Taiwan’s Money DJ, Chinese assembly contractor Luxshare Precision has been actively entering Apple’s supply chain in recent years and has secured contracts to manufacture high-end models of the iPhone 15, no longer exclusively produced by Foxconn. Luxshare Precision’s Chairman, Wang Laichun, revealed in a recent interview that they have secured orders for three iPhone 15 models this year, and this business segment has doubled in performance over the past year.

She also disclosed that they are preparing for the production of Apple’s upcoming head-worn device, the Apple Vision Pro, set to be released early next year.

As reported by The Paper, Wang Laichun pointed out that Luxshare Precision currently provides development and manufacturing services for a range of Apple products, including iPhones, Apple Watch, AirPods, and Apple Vision Pro. They offer an integrated solution, from diverse components and modules to complete system assembly.

Luxshare Precision’s semi-annual report for 2023, released at the end of August, showed that their sales for the first half of the year reached RMB 97.97 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 19.53%. Their net profit was RMB 4.154 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 22.48%. Not only did they achieve record cash flow, but several financial indicators also improved. Luxshare Precision expects its net profit for the first three quarters of 2023 to reach between RMB 7.040 billion and RMB 7.680 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10% to 20%.

The report noted that Wang Laichun attributes this growth to the company’s process optimization and efficiency improvements, which have led to a significant increase in the number of iPhone production models and quantities in recent years. She also mentioned that the company continues to expand its capacity in China to meet Apple’s demands. Last year, they established a new facility in Kunshan dedicated to iPhone development and production, creating tens of thousands of job opportunities.

(Photo credit: Apple)