Apple is expected to unveil the iPhone 15 in September 2023, with minimal changes anticipated in its PCB design. According to research from TrendForce, the iPhone 16, set to launch in 2024, is projected to adopt the use of RCC (Resin Coated Copper) material for its mainboard to reduce the device’s thickness.

TrendForce’s analysis is as follows:

The iPhone 15 Pro Max will feature RFPCB for its periscope lens, while the iPhone 16 Pro series will utilize RCC for its mainboard.

Looking first at the primary changes in the iPhone 15’s PCB, constrained by factors such as device dimensions and product pricing, only the iPhone 15 Pro Max will incorporate a periscope lens. In contrast to the conventional FPC (Flexible Printed Circuit) used in typical lenses, the iPhone 15’s periscope lens will adopt RFPCB (Rigid-Flex Printed Circuit Board) to better utilize space and control the device’s thickness.

Currently, iPhones employ SLP (Substrate-Like PCB) for their mainboards. To achieve a thinner device profile, Apple is planning to introduce RCC as the mainboard material for the iPhone 16 Pro series, scheduled for the latter half of 2024. This will involve using 2 to 8 layers of RCC within the 18 to 20 layers of SLP.

However, based on supply chain information, RCC has not yet passed drop tests, leading to potential fractures between SLP layers. If this issue persists beyond the end of 2023, the adoption of RCC might be postponed until the introduction of the iPhone 17, which could be expected in 2025.

The SLP architecture is moving closer to ABF substrates, while RCC can only replace a portion of the CCL layers.

Taking a closer look at RCC’s material characteristics, RCC involves applying semi-cured epoxy resin onto copper foil after heating. The main distinction between RCC and standard CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) lies in the absence of glass fiber cloth in RCC. RCC primarily consists of resin and copper foil, and it employs ABF (Ajinomoto Build-up Film) instead of PP (Prepreg) as the insulating material between copper foil layers. RCC is also a material used in ABF substrates, indicating that SLP architecture is moving closer to ABF substrates.

Due to its lack of glass fiber cloth, RCC offers advantages such as reduced thickness and suitability for fine line designs. Its lower Dk (Dielectric constant) and Df (Dissipation Factor) characteristics contribute to high-frequency and high-speed transmission. However, due to its softer nature, RCC has poorer support capabilities, allowing it to only replace certain CCL layers.

It is expected that Ajinomoto will have a monopoly in the iPhone RCC market in 2024, with Taiwanese manufacturers potentially becoming suppliers in 2025.

In the supply chain realm, since ABF substrates also involve RCC, Ajinomoto, a primary ABF supplier, is projected to become the exclusive supplier of iPhone RCC materials in 2024. ITEQ, an early adopter of RCC materials, successfully developed RCC production lines by the end of 2021, making it the first Taiwanese CCL manufacturer to do so. As such, it stands a chance of becoming the second supplier.

EMC is a major supplier of iPhone mainboard CCL materials, with an estimated market share of around 95% in 2023. TSEC also successfully developed RCC materials in 2022, indicating that both ITEQ and EMC have potential to enter the iPhone RCC supply chain in 2025. Other companies, including Japanese firms Mitsubishi Gas Chemical, Panasonic, and Korean company Doosan Electronics, have also developed RCC materials, indicating an interest in becoming part of the iPhone RCC supply chain.

According to a report by Taiwan’s Economic Daily, the share of Chinese companies in Apple’s laptop manufacturing has expanded. After Luxshare secured assembly contracts for AirPods and iPhones, Chinese ODM Wingtec has commenced mass production of the 13-inch MacBook Air at its Kunming facility in Yunnan province, gradually eroding the historical market share of Taiwanese manufacturers like Foxconn and Quanta.

Both Foxconn and Quanta have exhibited relatively conservative stances towards the laptop market this quarter. Apple’s suppliers has typically refrained from commenting on competitor dynamics and single customer order trends. Quanta believes that the laptop market’s recovery is sluggish, with laptop shipments anticipated to decrease by 20% in the coming year. Additionally, the shift of certain Chromebook orders to an early June shipment date, coupled with a high base effect, is expected to result in a decline in the company’s laptop shipments this quarter.

On the other hand, at Foxconn, Chairman Young Liu previously stated that the company aimed to secure a larger market share in the personal computer (PC) segment. However, the decelerating momentum in the laptop industry demand is expected to persist into the latter half of the year. As a result, the third-quarter performance of the computer division is projected to remain on par with the second quarter while experiencing a decline compared to the same period last year.

Presently, Quanta is the largest assembly factory for Apple laptops, followed by Foxconn. According to China’s quality certification center, Wingtec has obtained a 3C quality certificate for its mass production of MacBook Air equipped with Apple’s M2 chip at the Kunming facility.

In the past, Apple’s MacBook Air product line was manufactured by both Foxconn and Quanta. Wingtec is the sole Chinese factory among Apple’s laptop manufacturers. Wingtec, known for its expertise in smartphone manufacturing, announced in April of this year that it secured Samsung’s 2023 smartphone and tablet ODM orders. In recent years, Wingtec has expanded its business scope to include semiconductors through acquisitions of automotive electronics firm Nexperia, successfully entering Apple’s supply chain.

Industry sources indicate that Apple is committed to diversifying MacBook laptop production to include various locations across China. Over the years, Apple has aimed to expand MacBook laptop production to more countries and companies. Analysts speculate that Apple’s ultimate plan is to allocate 55% of MacBook manufacturing to Quanta, 35% to Foxconn, and 10% to Wingtec.

(Photo credit: Apple)

According to a report by Taiwan’s Commercial Times, China’s Haitong Securities has taken the lead in reducing shipment expectations before Apple’s upcoming new product launch next month. The company has lowered the shipment forecast from the initial 83 million units to 77 million units, marking a decrease of 6 million units.

Industry experts point out that lackluster demand in the end market and challenges in the manufacturing process are the main reasons behind the market’s growing skepticism towards iPhone 15 shipment numbers.

Haitong Securities indicates that Apple’s iPhone 15 shipment volume could be revised down to 77 million units. This is primarily due to lower-than-expected yield rates for the CMOS image sensors (CIS) provided by Sony for the periscope lenses. The production bottleneck for iPhone 15 and Plus models is Sony’s 3-layer CIS structure (PD/TX + pixel + ISP), leading to subpar production yields.

Industry experts also mention that the high difficulty in producing the titanium metal frame is attributed to the differing coefficients of thermal expansion between titanium and aluminum. However, this issue can be managed by increasing Foxconn’s production capacity.

The LIPO (Low Injection Pressure Overmolding) screen, on the other hand, faces low yield rates from LG and will need Samsung’s support. Nonetheless, the supply situation for these two components should reach a controlled stage.

Industry sources believe that delays in production for iPhone 15 stem from Sony’s lens sensors, the new titanium alloy frame, and the 1.55mm narrow border screen. However, the primary reason for Apple’s adjustment of iPhone 15’s sales target remains concerns over demand. Both the iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max are expected to come with higher price tags, potentially dampening consumer willingness to purchase. The decision to trim production plans prior to the new phone’s release warrants close attention to whether it garners consumer acceptance after hitting the market.

Based on a recent analysis by TrendForce, LG Display is encountering a challenge with its supply of 6.7-inch panels and chassis for the iPhone 15 Pro Max. The issue revolves around tolerance, leading to the development of a growing dark spot (GDS) once the components are assembled. Unfortunately, this problem has hindered the successful passage of quality verification tests. Consequently, LGD’s production timeline is anticipated to face a one-month delay, awaiting the resumption of shipments following the completion of revalidation later this month. To manage the reduced panel supply during this interim period, Samsung Display (SDC) will step in and provide supplementary support.

From the standpoint of downstream assembly facilities, the adjustments in supply have the potential to impact production operations in Zhengzhou for approximately two weeks. It’s projected that by ramping up production subsequently, these effects can be mitigated.

On a different note, BOE has successfully achieved its goal for this year by participating in the development of panels for both the iPhone 15 and 15 Plus. However, owing to recent quality concerns necessitating mask adjustments, they might encounter a significant decrease in shipments. Simultaneously, since SDC is a key supplier for these two new models as well, they will step up to fill the void created by BOE’s supply shortfall.

Taking a historical perspective on BOE’s involvement in supplying iPhone panels, their journey began with the iPhone 12, providing components for repairs, and subsequently transitioning into regular supply for the iPhone 13. Their prowess in LTPS and OLED technology has been acknowledged. However, with the introduction of the iPhone 15 and 15 Plus models, which incorporate the Dynamic Island design featuring a center-hole punch, the demands placed on the panels have become more stringent. The alteration in mask design is likely a pivotal factor that requires additional time for BOE to optimize panel yield and quality.

TrendForce underscores that the issue pertaining to panel quality only marginally affects the overarching shipping schedule for the iPhone 15 series. Its main consequence lies in the reshuffling of panel suppliers, while SDC continues to assert its dominance as the primary supplier of new model iPhone panels this year, accounting for nearly 70% of the market share.

According to a report by Taiwan’s Commercial Times, global smartphone brands are set to introduce a series of flagship-level new products. Following the introduction of Apple’s A17 chip using TSMC’s 3-nanometer process, Qualcomm’s next-generation processor Snapdragon 8 Gen 3 and MediaTek’s Dimensity 9300 are expected to be unveiled in October. These chips will be manufactured using TSMC’s N4P process, with plans to further transition to the N3E process next year.

Industry source have indicated that TSMC’s 3-nanometer yield is gradually improving, coupled with the return of N4P orders, providing a counterbalance against the impact of sluggish end market demand.

Commercial Times’ report highlights that TSMC previously expressed strong demand for its N3 process, projecting substantial growth in the second half of the year. The N3 process will support high-performance computing (HPC) and smartphone platforms, with an anticipated contribution of 4-6% to the company’s revenue in 2023. Additionally, N3E has already been verified and received its first batch of customer product design approvals, with mass production expected to commence in the fourth quarter. TSMC aims to achieve a monthly production capacity of 100,000 wafers in its 3-nanometer process by the end of the year to cater to Apple’s demands.

According to Bloomberg’s recent exposure of Apple’s projected M3 processor product roadmap set for release this fall, the basic M3 processor consists of 4 high-performance and 4 energy-efficient cores, paired with 10 GPU cores. M3 Pro comes in two versions: a basic version equipped with 12 cores (6 high-performance and 6 energy-efficient) and 18 GPU cores, and a higher-tier version with 14 CPU cores and 20 GPU cores.

M3 Max also offers two versions, featuring a fully-equipped 16-core CPU. The main difference between the basic and higher-tier versions lies in the GPU cores—32 for the former and a whopping 40 for the latter. The most powerful variant, M3 Ultra, essentially doubles the configuration of M3 Max, boasting 32 CPU cores paired with either 64 or 80 GPU cores. Industry experts widely regard TSMC as the primary beneficiary of these developments.

(Photo credit: TSMC)