considering factors such as pricing and the absence of certain essential features, TrendForce anticipates a modest shipment volume of approximately 200,000 units for Apple Vision Pro in 2024. The market’s response will heavily depend on the subsequent introduction of consumer-oriented Apple Vision models and the ability of Apple to offer enticing everyday functionalities that will drive the rapid growth of the AR market as a whole.

VR/AR shipments are expected to drop to 7.45 million in 2023

In the meantime, TrendForce forecasts a global downturn in AR and VR device shipments for 2023, predicting a shipment total of roughly 7.45 million units—an 18.2% YoY decrease. VR devices are expected to shoulder the majority of this decline, with projected shipments hovering around 6.67 million units.

Conversely, shipments of AR devices are expected to remain stable, with projected shipments exceeding 780,000 units. While Apple’s latest offerings could stimulate some demand, the high price tags attached to these units continue to pose a significant barrier to broader market growth.

TrendForce posits that the trajectory of the VR and AR device market may encounter certain limitations between 2023 and 2025. While affordable VR devices could pique the interest of mainstream consumers, the prospect of minimal profitability might dissuade manufacturers from substantial investment in the VR market in the immediate future. A shift towards AR devices and their corresponding applications seems more probable.

Nevertheless, the expansion of the AR device market hinges on a broader acceptance of consumer applications. Therefore, TrendForce anticipates that a significant rise in the VR and AR market, potentially nearing a 40% annual increase in shipments, might not be realized until 2025.

Apple’s latest MR device, the “Vision Pro,” utilizes Micro OLED technology. This technology, along with Micro LED, is considered the next generation of display technology. So what are the differences between Micro OLED and Micro LED, and which one is better suited for AR/VR/MR devices?

According to market research firm TrendForce, ideal smart glasses must meet three major criteria. Firstly, to minimize the burden of wearing glasses, the display engine’s size should be below 1 inch. Secondly, in terms of content recognition requirements, the display brightness specification should reach at least 4,000 nits to ensure immunity to external factors such as weather or venue conditions. Lastly, the resolution should be at least 3,000 PPI to ensure clear projection and magnification.

Currently, Micro LED and Micro OLED are the primary technologies that meet these requirements. However, Micro LED is still in the early stages of AR technology development and faces several challenges that need to be overcome. Therefore, Micro OLED is currently the mainstream technology in the field.

Micro OLED technology enables full-color capabilities and has become the preferred choice for AR/VR manufacturers. According to TrendForce’s comparison of display engines, Micro LED outperforms Micro OLED in pixel size, luminous efficiency, and brightness. It appears to be the most suitable for AR glasses based on specifications. However, Micro LED is currently limited to a single green color, while Micro OLED can achieve full color. As a result, Micro OLED has a competitive advantage in AR/VR devices.

In terms of manufacturers, Sony remains the main supplier for Micro OLED technology. Due to their longer investment time and technological advantages, South Korean manufacturers Samsung and LG Display (LGD) are expected to join Apple’s MR supply chain in 2024.

Last year, reports suggested that Samsung initially considered Micro OLED a niche market and lagged behind its competitor, LGD. However, due to demands from Apple, Meta, and Samsung’s parent company, they began developing Micro OLED in the third quarter of last year. The latest news reveals that Samsung will acquire American Micro OLED display manufacturer eMagin for a price of $218 million.

Meanwhile, Meta will also collaborate with South Korean semiconductor giants SK hynix and LGD to develop Micro OLED panels for Meta XR (Extended Reality) devices. This partnership is expected to lead to more Micro OLED applications in AR/VR in the future.

Micro LED technology is still facing bottlenecks, but it has the potential to surpass Micro OLED in the medium to long term. TrendForce states that Micro LED AR glasses, due to the bottleneck in achieving full colorization, primarily display monochromatic information such as informational prompts, navigation, translation, and note-taking functions. Achieving higher resolutions requires chip miniaturization, reducing the size of Micro LED to 5 micrometers. In this situation, epitaxial processes are affected by wavelength uniformity issues, which impact yield. Additionally, smaller chips raise concerns about the external quantum efficiency (EQE) of red chips.

Overall, although Micro LED faces many challenges in AR glasses, it still outperforms Micro OLED in contrast, responsiveness, lifespan, power consumption, and other specifications. Considering the limitations of waveguide component technology in transparent AR glasses, which restricts optical efficiency from exceeding 1%, Micro LED remains an excellent choice in the medium to long term.

Therefore, if Apple wants to introduce Micro LED technology, it plans to start with the Apple Watch. However, the project’s launch has been delayed from 2024 to a later date, possibly beyond 2025, due to technological bottlenecks. In fact, over the past decade, Apple has invested significant funds in collaboration with ams Osram to develop Micro LED components. Once the technology is ready for mass production, Apple is likely to take charge of the critical “mass transfer” process, which may be carried out at its secret research and development center in Longtan, Taoyuan.

It’s worth noting that in addition to Micro LED, the Longtan research and development center is also where Apple collaborates with TSMC on Micro OLED technology for MR devices.

(Photo credit: Apple)

The surge in AIGC and new technologies such IoT, AI, 5G, AR/VR are driving a huge demand for computational power of high-end chips. This has been even outpacing the performance increase offered by the long-standing Moore’s Law, ushering in a “post-Moore” era where revolutions in advanced chip design are crucial.

Over recent years, chiplet design has seemingly become the mainstream approach for upgrading high-end chips. The concept is to allow more transistors on a single chip, effectively increasing the production yield of high-end chips while reducing overall costs.

By the large, major IC players have all jumped on board. Even Apple has joined the game by releasing their M1 Ultra SoC using the chiplet concept, which doubles computational performance by integrating two M1 Max units in a single chip.

The CPU sector is definitely a clear demonstration of this trend:

• AMD took the leap with chiplet design in their 2nd-gen EPYC CPUs, doubling the computing cores from 32 to 64 within two years, while slashing costs by up to half. The company has extended this approach to their 4th-gen EPYC CPUs and even pioneered the GPU Navi 31, the first of its kind to use chiplets.
• Intel started incorporating chiplets into their Lakefield series SoC in 2020. Looking ahead, their upcoming CPUs like the Meteor Lake set for 2023, and Arrow Lake and Lunar Lake scheduled for 2024, will all use chiplet design.

Transition from Bumping to Hybrid Bonding

Our analysis in “Chiplet Design: A Real Game-Changer for Substrates” laid out the comprehensive impact of the evolution of chiplet technology on substrates. In fact, chiplets have already caused a significant disruption to the most advanced semiconductor packaging technologies, necessitating the transition towards advanced 2.5D and 3D packaging technologies.

The bottleneck of advanced packaging lies in the chiplets’ interconnections, with bump and microbump still being the key technology for linking chips and forming I/O joints. These connection densities are hard to enhance, thus limiting the overall chip’s transmission speed. In addition, the more chiplets being stacked, the bigger the chip volume gets. The challenge is how to limit the chip size within a specific range, considering the current technical constraints.

Therefore, copper-to-copper hybrid bonding, also known as DBI (Direct Bond Interconnect), has been emerging as the key technology route that overcomes major hurdles in chiplet integration from the bottom-up.

Unlike bumping technology, hybrid bonding significantly shrinks the I/O joint space. The future transmission demand requires the I/O joint space between chiplets to be less than 10µm. While bumping is limited to around 20µm, hybrid bonding can take this down to an impressive 1µm or even less. This also means more I/O joints can be fitted in the same chip size – even reaching up to millions on a mere 1cm2 chip.

On top of this, hybrid bonding only adds an extra 1-2µm of thickness, compared to the 10-30µm of microbump, thereby helping reduce the thickness of stacked chips.

To put it simply, hybrid bonding can boost transmission efficiency, minimize energy usage with higher density of copper joints, manage chip volume, and even cut down on material costs.

The Race for Advanced Packaging Is Kicking Off

Moving forward, hybrid bonding is set to become the key technology supporting the continuous development of chiplet design and 3D packaging. This has been exemplified by TSMC’s front-end So IC packaging technology which is based on hybrid bonding. This puts AMD, a key customer of TSMC, in a favorable position to get ahead.

From AMD’s roadmap of 3D V-Cache technology, they have stacked SRAM on top of CCX (CPU Complex), and gradually integrated it into Milan-X series, the EPYC server CPUs, and Ryzen series, the consumer-grade CPUs, over the past two years. This has significantly improved performance and power consumption as a whole.

Not to be outdone, this year Intel also launched their Foveros Direct packaging technology, which is also based on hybrid bonding route. Assuming everything proceeds smoothly, we can anticipate the release of CPUs utilizing Foveros Direct technology by 2024.

As we look at the current products, AMD’s hybrid bonding apparently focuses on stacking SRAM and computing units at the moment. However, as CPU leaders deepen their understanding of this technology, the application field is expected to further expand. In other words, the future of hybrid bonding solutions stacking multiple computation units is just around the corner.

TrendForce reports that the recently unveiled Apple Vision Pro at this year’s WWDC is poised to revolutionize the AR/VR market with its sleek design and high-performance capabilities. However, the complexity behind its production and its limited production capacity present significant challenges, leading to a projected initial release in the US during 1H24. Furthermore, considering factors such as pricing and the absence of certain essential features, TrendForce anticipates a modest shipment volume of approximately 200,000 units for Apple Vision Pro in 2024. The market’s response will heavily depend on the subsequent introduction of consumer-oriented Apple Vision models and the ability of Apple to offer enticing everyday functionalities that will drive the rapid growth of the AR market as a whole.

TrendForce also notes that the Apple Vision Pro boasts cutting-edge hardware specifications and innovative design. However, a substantial price tag of US$3,499 and the requirement for an external power source to operate for a mere two hours pose challenges to consumer adoption. Currently, the Apple Vision Pro lacks sufficient applications for mainstream users, making it more attractive to developers and enterprise customers who can capitalize on its innovative features to create diverse applications. Consequently, the higher price point of the product is justified.

Looking ahead, Apple has the opportunity to fine-tune the product specifications based on the usage patterns of various features in Vision Pro. This will pave the way for the launch of a distinct offering, Apple Vision, which will cater to the budgetary constraints of general consumers while optimizing battery life. As such, WWDC 2023 primarily focuses on the concept of spatial computing, setting the stage for the anticipation of more practical AR applications to be showcased at WWDC 2024. These applications will be tailored towards usage in daily life, including seamless integration with other Apple products for information retrieval and effortless command execution.

Will AIGC Bring New Development Boost to MR?

According to TrendForce, it is difficult to see AIGC exerting influence in the MR field in the short term due to the need for corresponding AI models and tools to be established. Currently, the AR/VR market is not large, and coupled with the complexity of content development, it is challenging to attract AIGC’s development in this area in the short term.

Furthermore, the complexity and cost of entry into the MR field, along with limited market size, have caused many brand manufacturers to focus on small-scale commercial products. This is because such products have a high unit price and low quantity, allowing manufacturers to control the total cost within a manageable range while capitalizing on the AR/VR industry trend. However, it does not mean that manufacturers are willing to heavily invest in this market.

Overall, this is the biggest difference in strategy between Apple and these manufacturers. Apple indeed wants to aggressively develop the AR market, but the lack of market understanding and content applications led to the introduction of developer products like Vision Pro. The purpose is twofold: to allow developers to advance in content application development and to gather feedback on hardware design and features used by developers. This feedback helps Apple determine which hardware design and features to retain or discard when launching new consumer products that closely align with content application needs.

Due to geopolitical and pandemic, Apple has been accelerating the diversification of its supply sources, with India being the most well-known case for such transfer. According to TrendForce, India’s Tata Group is expected to become the fourth iPhone assembler for Apple. Following Apple’s pattern, new suppliers receive smaller orders for lower-end models, which means Tata Group will initially get only small orders for the iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Plus.

TrendForce thinks the small order has 3 implications in Apple’s relocation plan:

First, Tata, the largest conglomerate in India, has received orders for iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Plus, indicating that India will become the first wave of shipments for new iPhone series.

Second, the reason why Tata is able to produce iPhone is due to the acquisition of Wistron’s Indian production line. Therefore, Tata’s entry also means Wistron’s exit from the iPhone assembly business.

Last, Tata is the fourth company to undertake iPhone assembly business after Luxshare joined in 2020 for iPhone 12 Pro Max assembly.

TrendForce emphasized that although Tata’s share of assembly orders for various iPhone models is only 5% in 2023, it still shows an accelerating trend of Apple’s production relocation.