Australian mining company, Liontown Resources Ltd., has just announced it’s agreed to a buyout proposal of AUD 6.6 billion (USD 4.3 billion) by US lithium producer Albemarle Corp (ALB). TrendForce’s latest “2023 Global Li-Ion Battery Industry Chain Market Supply and Demand Report,” indicates that global lithium production in 2022 hit approximately 860,000 tons of Lithium Carbonate Equivalent (LCE). ALB, with its diverse lithium portfolio (spodumene, lithium salt, and tolling), accounted for over 180,000 tons of LCE. Predictions for 2023 spotlight a global lithium production reaching 1.21 million tons LCE, and ALB is set to churn out 200,000 tons of that, holding firmly onto the lead with its 17% market share.

TrendForce reports that ALB has strategically secured the planet’s most abundant, high-quality, and cost-efficient reserves of lithium salt lake and minerals across regions like Chile, Australia, and the US. Moreover, when it comes to lithium refinement, ALB emerges as the global titan with the world’s greatest lithium salt production capacity. As it stands, ALB’s annual production capacity for lithium hydroxide reaches 110,000 tons, accounting for 23% of the world’s entire production.

Liontown, a key supplier of Australia’s battery minerals, holds the reins to two major hard rock lithium deposits: Kathleen Valley and Buldania. These areas boast lithium reserves of 156 million tons (5.4 million tons LCE) and 14.9 million tons (370,000 tons LCE), respectively. As Kathleen Valley gears up for completion by the end of 2023, its inaugural production phase is set to roll out by 2Q24, targeting an annual yield of 500,000 tons of lithium spodumene concentrate. And that’s just the start, with plans to elevate this figure to a whopping 700,000 tons annually. On the other hand, the Buldania project is still in its nascent stage, focused on exploration and surveying.

With ambitions to acquire Australian miner Liontown, ALB set to command the world’s largest lithium resources, TrendForce believes.

Should ALB’s acquisition of Liontown materialize, it would cement its control of global lithium resources and bolster its lithium salt production framework. Yet, ALB isn’t the sole player in this vast industry. Major lithium producers, including SQM, Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, Yahua Industrial, Chengxin Lithium, and Livent, are fervently ramping up their production capabilities in lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide.

Lithium, the backbone of modern tech, is set to see its global demand skyrocket. TrendForce’s insights reveal a bustling 2022 with around 40 lithium mining projects worldwide. After 2025, the number of projects in production will increase to a staggering 100+. To safeguard their global dominance and sharpen their competitive edge, lithium chemical producers are strategically aligning with upstream lithium miners to secure lithium resources. Case in point: Livent’s recent merger with Allkem in May of this year and ALB’s designs on Liontown. This momentum signifies a trend toward a more consolidated global lithium resource landscape, with mergers and acquisitions becoming the norm in upcoming years.

Report to China Times, due to the declining cost of batteries, by 2024, the prices of electric vehicles (EVs) in Europe will be on par with those of gasoline-powered cars, while the American market will have to wait until 2026. Furthermore, it’s projected that by 2030, two-thirds of all cars sold globally will be electric vehicles.

A report released on the 14th by the non-profit organization Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) predicts that battery costs will be cut in half over the next decade. This reduction will bring the cost of batteries down from $151 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) in 2022 to a range between USD 60~90.

According to TrendForce, in 1H23, the total sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs, including BEV, PHEV, FCEV), including pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, reached 5.462 million units, by YoY of 33.6%. Specifically, NEV sales in the second quarter amounted to 3.03 million units, up 42.8% YoY, and accounting for 14.4% of the overall automobile sales in the second quarter.

Price-wise, TrendForce believes that when the cost of pure electric cars falls below approximately USD100 per kWh, there will be an opportunity to compete with gasoline cars.

By 2030, electric vehicle prices will finally match those of gasoline cars. The high cost of EV batteries, which accounts for approximately 40% of the price of electric cars, has been a barrier preventing many consumers from affording electric vehicles. RMI points out that automakers are investing in the development of new battery chemistries, materials, and software to improve electric vehicle efficiency, gradually driving down both battery and electric vehicle prices. RMI analysts suggest that as electric vehicles rapidly grow in popularity in Europe and China, EV sales could increase at least six times by 2030, with a global market share of 62~86%.

(Source: https://www.ctee.com.tw/news/20230915700374-430704)

After the Chinese holidays, solar-related materials continued to decline, with the exception of module prices which remained nearly flat. Prices for other materials such as cells, wafers, and polysilicon all decreased.

Polysilico

Polysilicon prices have continued to decline since the Labor Day holiday, with mono-Si compound feedings and mono-Si dense materials now priced at RMB 158/kg and RMB 155/kg, respectively. Downstream wafer businesses are trying to reduce their polysilicon inventory to avoid further losses from price drops. The increase in polysilicon output is weakening price protection for polysilicon companies, with some dumping their stocks, further accelerating the price drop. The ramp-up phase has resulted in lower quality polysilicon, creating an apparent price difference compared to high-quality polysilicon. The drop in prices is expected to continue.

Wafers

Wafer prices have dropped for nearly two weeks, guided by leading wafer businesses. M10 and G12 now cost a respective mainstream price of RMB 5.4/pc and RMB 7.4/pc. Zhonghuan recently announced a more than 8% reduction in its wafer prices following LONGi’s announcement of an approximate 3% drop in wafer prices. The cautious attitude towards procurement in response to falling prices has led to sluggish market transactions. The cell segment’s reluctance to purchase has led to shipment difficulties and an inventory build-up. Combined with the ongoing decline in polysilicon prices, wafer prices are expected to continue to fall in the short term.

Cells

Cell prices have dropped slightly following the Labor Day holiday, with M10 and G12 cells now priced at RMB 1.04/W and RMB 1.1/W respectively. The reduction in upstream polysilicon and wafer prices, along with price suppression from downstream module makers, contributed to the decrease. However, the balanced supply and demand of cells prevented a significant drop, allowing cell businesses to maintain partial profitability. Further reductions in cell prices may occur due to ongoing cost reductions upstream and price pressure from module makers, but the equilibrium between upstream and downstream sectors could slow the decrease. M10 mono-Si TOPCon cell prices have increased due to a gradual rise in market transactions, now priced at RMB 1.18/W.

Modules

Module prices are holding steady in the short term, with 182 & 210 mono-Si single-sided PERC modules priced at RMB 1.67/W and RMB 1.68/W respectively, and 182 & 210 bifacial double-glass mono-Si PERC modules at RMB 1.69/W and RMB 1.7/W. Upstream price reductions have yet to affect the module segment due to the retention of profitability for the cell segment and the traditional peak season for the PV industry. Despite the price-suppressing approach from the end sector, first-tier module makers are stabilizing their prices, and overseas demand is strong. Overall, module prices are expected to remain sturdy in the short term. (Image credit: EnergyTrend)

As a consequence of rising power battery raw material prices, a number of global new energy vehicle (NEV) brands including Tesla, BYD, NIO, Li Auto, and Volkswagen, have successively raised the sales prices of electric vehicles (EV) in 1Q22. TrendForce believes that power batteries are the core component that account for the greatest portion of an EV’s overall cost and reducing the cost of power batteries will be an important strategy for companies to remain competitive in the future. As technology continues to innovate, lithium iron phosphate batteries are expected to account for more than 60% of installed capacity in the global power battery market by 2024.

TrendForce indicates, from the perspective of the world’s largest EV market, China, the power battery market reversed in 2021 and lithium iron phosphate batteries officially surpassed ternary batteries with 52% of installed capacity. Lithium iron phosphate installed capacity continued to grow in 1Q22, rising to 58%, and demonstrating a growth rate far beyond that of ternary batteries. However, from the perspective of the global EV market, thanks to the increase in the penetration rate of NEVs in Europe and the United States, ternary batteries still accounted for a market share of more than 60% in 2021, far exceeding that of lithium iron phosphate batteries, which captured a market share of approximately 32~ 36%.

Although the current gap between these two materials remains substantial, according to production capacity planning of global new energy battery cathode material manufacturers in the past two years, the scale and speed of lithium iron phosphate materials expansion will far exceed that of ternary materials. According to TrendForce investigations, planned expansion projects announced by global cathode material manufacturers are currently concentrated in China and South Korea, with a nominal total planned production capacity of over 11 million tons, of which planned production capacity of lithium iron phosphate cathodes accounts for approximately 64%. However, since planned production capacity exceeds market demand, there will be a certain shortfall between the industry’s total planned production capacity and actual future production capacity. It remains to be seen to what level actual effective production capacity can rise in the future.

It is worth noting, as the price of core battery raw materials such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel has moved up clearly since 2H21 and the global power battery supply chain is plagued by uncertainty including the Russian-Ukrainian war and the global pandemic, there will be a short-term disparity between the growth rate of supply and demand and companies will focus more on reducing the cost of battery materials and supply chain security, two major issues related to future competitiveness. As a result of this trend, TrendForce expects the cost-effective advantage of lithium iron phosphate batteries to become more prominent and this type of battery has an opportunity to become the mainstream of the terminal market in the next 2-3 years. The global installed capacity ratio of lithium iron phosphate batteries to ternary batteries will also move from 3:7 to 6:4 in 2024