Amid the rising memory market prices and the continuously improving supply-demand balance, original manufacturers (OEMs) have seen their business performance steadily climb, generally achieving a turnaround from losses to profits.

Meanwhile, memory module manufacturers have also enjoyed rapid growth in their performance. With strong support from AI, memory manufacturers are optimistic about future market conditions, with some even stating that 2025 will be a significant upward cycle year for the memory industry.

• OEM and Module Manufacturers Recorded Strong Financial Results

Recently, two OEMs, Micron and Winbond, have disclosed their latest financial data.

Micron’s financial report for the period from March to May 2024 shows that the company’s revenue for the quarter was USD 6.811 billion, an 81.5% increase YoY. Non-GAAP operating income was USD 941 million, and net income was USD 702 million, a 47% increase QoQ. Specifically, Micron’s DRAM revenue was approximately USD 4.7 billion, a 13% increase QoQ, while its NAND business revenue was approximately USD 2.1 billion, a 32% increase QoQ.

The average selling prices (ASP) for both DRAM and NAND increased by more than 20% QoQ. Micron stated that its revenue, gross margin, and earnings per share for the quarter exceeded the upper limit of its guidance range. Looking ahead to next quarter, Micron expects its revenue to reach USD 7.4-7.8 billion.

Winbond’s self-clearing revenue report for June 2024 shows that consolidated revenue for June was TWD 7.378 billion, a 5.56% increase YoY; the cumulative consolidated revenue for January to June was TWD 41.605 billion, a 14.53% increase YoY.

In terms of memory module manufacturers, companies such as Adata, Phison, and Team Group all reported year-on-year revenue growth for June and the first half of the year. Adata’s revenue for June reached TWD 2.954 billion, a year-on-year increase of over 29.38%, with a cumulative consolidated revenue of TWD 20.91 billion for the first half of this year, up by 48.56% YoY. Team Group’s revenue for June was TWD 2.796 billion, a 44.93% increase YoY, while Phison’s revenue was TWD 5.361 billion, a 55.93% increase YoY, both setting new monthly revenue records.

BIWIN and TWSC recently disclosed announcements expecting substantial year-on-year growth in net profit for the first half of 2024. BIWIN expects net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses to be CNY 275-325 million, a year-on-year increase of 191.12-207.69%. TWSC expects operating revenue to be CNY 2-2.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 238.68-289.48%.

• Memory Companies Anticipate an Upward Trend in 2025

Both OEMs and module manufacturers hold positive attitudes towards the outlook for future memory market.

Micron, as one of the three major DRAM manufacturers, has seen its HBM business grow by leaps and bounds in recent years, greatly benefited from the AI wave. Therefore, Micron is steadfastly optimistic about the potentials of AI and HBM. Micron expects to generate several hundred million dollars in revenue from HBM in fiscal 2024, which is expected to reach several billion dollar in fiscal 2025. Additionally, Micron reiterated that HBM has been in tight supply, and its HBM memory chips have already sold out for 2024 to 2025.

Winbond Chairman Arthur Chiao noted that Winbond began to see a decline in memory sales since 2Q22 and signs of sales increase in 2Q24 after eight quarters. He expects sales volume to rise, followed by price increase. He positively predicts that the industry will enter an upward cycle over the next two years, and 2025 will experience remarkable growth. To sum up, he views the market outlook for next year as optimistic.

Adata Chairman Simon Chen emphasized that upstream manufacturers currently have a very positive and proactive attitude towards prices. The allocation of production capacity is prioritized for HBM with the highest gross margin, followed by general-purpose DDR5 and DDR4. Capital expenditures are also profit-oriented.

As a result, short-term spot price fluctuations do not affect the continuous and stable upward trend of DRAM and NAND Flash contract prices in the third quarter. Moreover, some DRAM spot prices have started to rebound recently. He is optimistic that after a short-term adjustment in the spot market, the company’s shipments will return to a growth trajectory as the coming of the traditional peak season in 2H24.

• NAND Flash Price Increase to Shrink in 3Q24

It’s worth noting that although memory manufacturers are generally optimistic about the future market, and the AI development has indeed boosted demand for products such as servers, HBM, and enterprise SSD, the downstream terminal application market has not yet fully recovered.

Meanwhile, the active moves in expanding production by original manufacturers may lead to changes in the future supply-demand balance. These factors suggest that the increase in some product contract prices in the future memory market may shrink.

TrendForce reports that a recovery in demand for general servers—coupled with an increased production share of HBM by DRAM suppliers—has led suppliers to maintain their stance on hiking prices. As a result, the ASP of DRAM in the third quarter is expected to continue rising, with an anticipated increase of 8–13%. The price of conventional DRAM is expected to rise by 5–10%, showing a slight contraction compared to the increase in the second quarter.

In terms of NAND Flash, TrendForce indicates that industry companies will continue to invest in server construction, and particularly, enterprise SSD will see order increase as a result of the expansion of AI adoption, while consumer electronics demand remains weak. In addition, original manufacturers tend to be active in expand production in 2H24. As a whole, the sufficiency ratio of NAND Flash supply will rise to 2.3% in the third quarter, and the blended NAND Flash price increase will converge to 5-10%.

Looking at the price trend of NAND Flash this year, the price of NAND Flash accelerated to rebound as original manufacturers remained conservative in production increases in 1H24, which enabled them to return to profitability.

However, as manufacturers significantly expand production in 2H24, and retail market demand has still not recovered yet, the decline in wafer spot prices has widened, with some wafer prices falling more than 20% below contract prices. This presents a challenge for the future increase in wafer contract prices.

Read more

• [News] Memory Utilization Rate Near Full Capacity, Surpassing Mature Nodes Foundries
• [News] Memory Market Recovery is Near, as Winbond Expects a Good Year in 2025

(Photo credit: Micron)

The emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic led to severe delays in manufacturing and logistics. In particular, governments worldwide began implementing border restrictions in 2Q20 to combat the ongoing health crisis, leading to a sudden decline in order volumes for channel-market SSDs, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. Annual shipment of SSDs to the channel (retail) market reached 111.5 million units in 2020, a 15% YoY decrease. In terms of market share by shipment, Kingston, ADATA, and Kimtigo once again occupied the top three spots, respectively.

Looking at the channel market for SSDs as a whole, NAND Flash suppliers (among which Samsung possessed the largest market share) accounted for around 35% of the total shipments in 2020, while SSD module makers accounted for the other 65%. The top 10 module makers accounted for 71% of channel-market SSD shipments from all SSD module makers. Taken together, these figures show that the market remained relatively oligopolistic in 2020. However, it should be noted that TrendForce’s ranking of SSD module makers for 2020 takes account of only products bound for the channel market and under brands owned by the module makers themselves; NAND Flash suppliers were therefore excluded from the top 10 ranking.

As the pandemic eliminated tier-2 and tier-3 suppliers at an increasingly rapid pace, the collective market share of the top 10 module makers continued to rise

Kingston demonstrated the competitive advantage that it derived from having a global strategy while the pandemic took place. The company saw its market share increase by 1% against market headwinds in 2020 and comfortably took the number one spot among the top 10 SSD module makers. At the same time, Kingston sourced its SSD controller ICs from a diverse group of suppliers in order to avoid potential issues with SSD production due to insufficient foundry capacities. By ensuring a stable supply of controller ICs, Kingston will likely raise its market share even further going forward. On the other hand, ADATA had previously shifted the focus of its R&D and manufacturing operations to SSD products. Not only did ADATA release high-end products ahead of most of its competitors, but it also raised its markets share thanks to the increased demand for its gaming products during the pandemic. ADATA took the second spot on the top 10 list.

Kimtigo, ranked third on the list, shifted its focus to mid-range and high-end products due to their relatively high profitability. Furthermore, Kimtigo successfully expanded its market share both overseas and online, in turn taking the number one position in China. In light of China’s policies prioritizing domestic semiconductor production as well as Kimtigo’s ongoing efforts to cultivate a presence in tier-3 and tier-4 cities in China, the company will likely continue to increase its market share going forward. Netac similarly possessed comprehensive sales networks in China and the overseas markets, in addition to having committed to long-term developments in online sales channels. As the pandemic drove up online sales last year, Netac was able to leapfrog to fourth place in the rankings. Likewise, Lexar saw a slight growth in its market share last year due to not only the comprehensive global sales network it had previously developed, but also its gradually maturing manufacturing operations and aftersales customer services.

The COVID-19 pandemic drove up orders for Teclast’s self-branded notebook computers and displays. As a result, Teclast’s shipment of SSDs last year underwent an increase that in turn led to a corresponding increase in its market share. As for Colorful and Galaxy, the two companies primarily focused on the gaming market. Hence, the increase in demand for gaming consoles and high-end notebooks allowed Colorful and Galaxy to enjoy increased visibility in the SSD market. Lenovo’s shipments fell slightly in 2020 because the other competing brands increased their efforts in developing the overseas markets. As a result, its place in the ranking also dropped from 2019. As the ranking indicates, the competition among brands in the Chinese market remained very intense. There is the possibility that the brands’ positions in the ranking will undergo more reshuffling for 2021.

It should be pointed out that TrendForce has noted the participation of additional brands in the SSD module market in recent years. One such brand is Gigabyte, which has registered remarkable performances. Gigabyte grew its shipment of SSD products by more than 30% YoY in 2020 through leveraging its preexisting reputation in the motherboard and graphics card markets. Although Gigabyte has yet to enter the top 10 list at the moment, it will likely do so within the coming years thanks to its comprehensive global sales network and the growing visibility of its SSD products.

Rise of YMTC strengthens China’s domestic NAND Flash production, and Chinese SSD manufacturers are gradually gaining a brand advantage

As the trend of the localization of semiconductor manufacturing comes to the forefront of the Chinese memory market, YMTC is carrying out a massive capacity expansion plan. In terms of layer technology, YMTC is steadily advancing to 128L and catching up to the major NAND Flash suppliers. Among Chinese SSD brands, Biwin secured financial support from the China IC Industry Investment Fund (the Big Fund) this September; it is now expanding the production capacity of its plant in Huizhou. Besides this, Biwin has also acquired sufficient product development capability to meet clients’ demand for customized products and services. The company is therefore expected to experience a wave of growth in the future.

Turning to Taiwan-based SSD brands, Liteon’s shipments of branded SSDs have slowed down significantly after the company was fully incorporated into Kioxia in July 2020. Due to certain considerations pertaining to the allocation of internal resources, Kioxia will assign the Liteon SSD team to support the development of SSDs for PC OEMs. In the future, Kioxia’s focus will not be on brand development. As for other Taiwan-based SSD brands, they will unlikely return to the top 10 ranking because they have not been able to catch up to the brands based in Mainland China with respect to the economies of scale. TrendForce believes that Taiwan-based brands will continue to be on the decline.

PCIe G4 SSDs become new main offerings, and module makers have adopted QLC solutions

The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have contributed to a significant increase in the average memory density of SSDs this year. With 512GB becoming the mainstream capacity size, the cost advantage of QLC will become increasingly recognizable. Hence, module makers will be introducing QLC products into their SSD offerings. In the aspect of interface technologies, the proportion of SATA in the retail SSD market has been declining over the years, and module makers are switching to PCIe for their new products. TrendForce’s research finds that PCIe products accounted for almost 30% of retail SSDs shipped in 2020. With shipments of PCIe G4 SSDs expected to grow rapidly in the future, module makers will assign PCIe as the mainstream interface for new products.

Also, an increasing number of Chinese IC design houses are now involved in the development of SSD controller ICs. This, in turn, has led to more PCIe G4 SSD controllers entering mass production. As China pursues the localization of semiconductor manufacturing, module makers will be tested to develop suitable solutions that can maintain growth in the Chinese market.

For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms. Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforce.com