AI chip NVIDIA provided financial guidance for the third quarter, estimating its quarterly revenue to reach USD 32.5 billion, with a fluctuation of plus or minus 2%. The figure, though beats market expectations in general, still falls short of the market’s most optimistic forecast of USD 37.9 billion, sparking concerns that its explosive growth is waning.

On the other hand, regarding whether NVIDIA’s next-gen AI chip, Blackwell, faces delay, the tech giant notes that it shipped samples this quarter, and has made an adjustment to the product to make it more efficient to manufacture, according to a report by CNBC.

Citing CFO Colette Kress, the report states that in the fourth quarter, “we expect to ship several billion dollars in Blackwell revenue.”

Q3 Guidance Somehow Fails to Impress the Market

According to NVIDIA’s guidance, the adjusted gross margin in the third quarter is expected to be 75%, with a fluctuation of plus or minus 50 basis points, slightly below the market expectation of 75.5%. The company’s gross margin for the second quarter was 75.7%, with an average expectation of 75.8%.

This quarter’s outlook, though being solid, somehow fails to impress the market. The AI chip manufacturer has been a major beneficiary as companies rush to upgrade their data centers to handle AI software, and its sales forecast has become a barometer of this AI surge.

A report by the Economic Daily raises concerns that though the company has had several consecutive quarters of outstanding performance, most of its growth comes from a small number of customers. For instance, about 40% of its revenue comes from large data center operators, such as Google and Meta.

Although these tech giants have been investing heavily on AI, there are concerns that the scale of the infrastructure being built may exceed current demand, which could lead to a bubble.

Blackwell Update: Obstacles Removed?

There were concerns that there might be design issues with Blackwell, which might cause the shipment to delay. According to the report by the Economic Daily, NVIDIA admitted that it has encountered difficulties in the production process, but stated that they are implementing reforms to improve yield rates.

A report by Wccftech states that NVIDIA has confirmed that it has “implemented a change” to the Blackwell GPU mask produced at TSMC using the 4NP process node, which is expected to further enhance production yield. As this change is not a significant architectural redesign, the product remains on schedule for the ramp to start in the fourth quarter and continuing into FY2026.

According to Wccftech, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang reiterates that “Hopper demand remains strong, and the anticipation for Blackwell is incredible.” CFO Colette Kress further states that in the fourth quarter, “we expect to ship several billion dollars in Blackwell revenue.”

Q2 Performance Still Beats Market Expectations

In the second quarter, which ended on July 28, NVIDIA’s revenue was USD 30.04 billion, surpassing the market expectation of USD 28.7 billion. The annual growth rate for this quarter was 122%, marking the third consecutive quarter with a growth rate exceeding 200%. Net income for the quarter more than doubled from USD 6.18 billion, or 25 cents per share, a year ago to USD 16.6 billion, or 67 cents per share. Adjusted earnings per share were 68 cents, beating the market expectation of 64 cents.

It is worth noting that NVIDIA’s data center business revenue in the second quarter increased significantly by 154% YoY to $USD 26.3 billion, accounting for 88% of total sales. Its gaming revenue also grew 16% year over year to USD 2.9 billion, exceeding the expected USD 2.7 billion, which the company attributes to an increase in shipments of PC gaming cards and game console SoCs, reportedly chips for Nintendo’s game consoles.

The company also announced the approval of a USD 50 billion share buyback program.

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(Photo credit: NVIDIA)

According to a report from The Wall Street Journal citing sources on August 13th, it’s revealed that Chinese internet companies and telecom operators have been testing Huawei’s latest processor, the “Ascend 910C,” in recent weeks. Reportedly, Huawei has informed potential customers that this new chip is comparable to NVIDIA’s H100 GPU, which cannot be directly sold in China.

Huawei’s ability to continue advancing its chip technology is a sign of its efforts to counter U.S. sanctions. However, the report also indicated that Huawei is already experiencing production delays with its current chips. The company faces additional U.S. restrictions, limiting its access to parts for production equipment and the latest memory used in AI hardware.

The sources cited by the same report point out that, TikTok’s parent company ByteDance, search giant Baidu, and state-owned telecom operator China Mobile are in preliminary talks with Huawei to secure the Ascend 910C chip. These negotiations suggest that Huawei could secure orders for more than 70,000 chips, valued at approximately USD 2 billion.

Reportedly, Huawei aims to begin shipping the Ascend 910C in October, but the final delivery schedule might differ from the initial plan and could be subject to adjustments.

Under U.S. sanctions, customers in China are forced to purchase the H20 from NVIDIA, which is a “downgraded” version of the AI chip designed specifically for the Chinese market.

Per a previous report from South China Morning Post, it’s expected that Chinese tech giants may be considering a shift towards local AI products, which could pose a challenge to NVIDIA. Currently, China accounts for 17% of NVIDIA’s revenue in the 2024 fiscal year, making the competition in the Chinese market increasingly fierce for NVIDIA.

Compared to NVIDIA’s customers in China, NVIDIA’s U.S. customers, such as OpenAI, Amazon, and Google, will soon have access to NVIDIA’s latest Blackwell architecture chips, including new products like the GB200, which NVIDIA claims offer significantly improved performance compared to existing products.

Meanwhile,  Wall Street Journal also has cited sources, pointed out that NVIDIA is working on another China-oriented chip called B20, but the design might have trouble getting U.S. approval for China export if the regulations are further tighten.

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(Photo credit: NVIDIA)

As AI giant NVIDIA is said to delay its upcoming Blackwell series chips for months, which are now expected to hit the market around early 2025, the related semiconductor supply chain is experiencing a reshuffle. According to a report by the Korea Economic Daily, Samsung Electronics, which is eager to expand its market share for HBM3 and HBM3e, is likely to emerge as a major beneficiary in addition to AMD.

In March, NVIDIA introduced the Blackwell series, claiming it could enable customers to build and operate real-time generative AI on trillion-parameter large language models at up to 25 times less cost and energy consumption compared to its predecessor.

However, according to The Information, last week, NVIDIA informed major customers, including Google and Microsoft, that the shipments of its Blackwell AI accelerator would be delayed by at least three months due to design flaws.

Blackwell Delayed Potentially due to Design Flaws and TSMC’s Capacity Constraints

Tech media Overclocking points out that the defect is related to the part connecting the two GPUs, and creates problems for NVIDIA’s dual GPU versions, including the B200 and the GB200.

The delay has prompted tech companies to look for alternatives from NVIDIA’s competitors, such as AMD, according to the Korea Economic Daily. Microsoft and Google have already been working on next-generation products with AMD. For instance, Microsoft has purchased the MI300X, an AI accelerator from the US fabless semiconductor designer, the report says.

Samsung to Benefit thanks to the Collaboration with AMD

Samsung, as its HBM3 received AMD MI300 series certification in 1Q24, and is likely to provide HBM3e chips to AMD afterwards, is expected to benefit. Citing a semiconductor industry source, the Korea Economic Daily notes that as it is very risky for a single company to dominate the AI chip supply chain, the situation will create opportunities for Samsung and AMD.

It is also worth noting that Samsung’s HBM3 has passed NVIDIA’s qualification earlier, and would be used in the AI giant’s H20, which has been developed for the Chinese market in compliance with U.S. export controls.

According to TrendForce’s forecast in mid-July, the shipment share of AI servers equipped with self-developed ASIC chips in 2024 is expected to exceed 25%, while NVIDIA owning the lion’s share of 63.6%. AMD’s market share, on the other hand, is projected to reach 8.1% in 2024.

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(Photo credit: NVIDIA)

According to a report from Commercial Times, despite ongoing turbulence in the semiconductor industry, including Intel’s capital expenditure cuts and reported bottlenecks in NVIDIA’s B-series GPU, TSMC’s leading position in the industry may remain unshaken.

The sources cited in the report note that the issues with the B-series GPU, stemming from mask replacements to enhance chip stability, have been quickly resolved by the foundry.

The sources cited in the report believe that NVIDIA’s Blackwell started production at the end of the second quarter. To improve stability, NVIDIA replaced some masks, causing about a two-week production delay. The redesign has been completed, and large-scale production will proceed in the fourth quarter.

The same source do not believe it will affect TSMC’s CoWoS revenue, as the idle two-week capacity will be filled by the equally strong demand for H100.

On the other hand, Intel’s CPUs are reportedly facing issues as well. As per the company’s statement, the 13th and 14th generation Intel Core desktop systems are experiencing instability due to a microcode algorithm resulting in incorrect voltage requests to the processor.

Although the company has provided a two-year warranty extension and real-time updates to fix the errors, concerns about design flaws and manufacturing process issues still exist.

In 2024, Intel’s new platforms, Arrow Lake and Lunar Lake, will have their CPU tiles produced using TSMC’s 3nm process, accelerating the production schedule. Lunar Lake and Arrow Lake are expected to ship officially by the end of the third and fourth quarters of this year, respectively.

With the support of the 3nm technology, these measures are expected to alleviate market concerns.

The sources cited by Commercial Times estimate that TSMC’s competitor Intel has begun to strictly cut costs, reducing capital expenditures by 20%. This could affect key capabilities in mass production and defect resolution in wafer manufacturing.

Therefore, sources cited by the report believe that TSMC’s leading position remains difficult to challenge in the short term.

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NVIDIA’s next-generation Blackwell architecture AI superchip is about to ship. According to a report from Commercial Times, on July 29 during the SIGGRAPH conference in Denver, USA, NVIDIA announced a series of software updates and revealed that samples of the new AI chip architecture Blackwell have been distributed, sparking optimism about the company’s continued record-breaking performance.

Industry sources cited by the report have indicated that the Blackwell series is regarded by Jensen Huang as the most successful product in history. It is expected to drive a new wave of AI server data center construction by cloud service providers (CSPs).

The report notes further that in addition to TSMC’s 4nm process being in high demand, the increasing penetration of water cooling technology, which is projected to reach up to 10%, is likely to benefit Cooling Distribution Unit suppliers such as Vertiv, as well as companies like Asia Vital Components, AURAS Technology, Delta Electronics, and Cool IT.

Furthermore, the new AI superchip is expected to start shipping to clients in the fourth quarter, with full-scale production set for 2025. Assembly plants will also benefit, including Wistron, Foxconn (through its subsidiary Ingrasys), which are involved in front-end manufacturing of substrates, computing boards, and switch boards.

Companies such as Wiwynn, Quanta (Quanta Cloud Technology), Inventec, GIGABYTE, ASUS, and ASRock are also expected to see increased orders for their rack-mounted systems. Among these, Quanta, Wiwynn, and Inventec have indicated that their related products are expected to start shipping in the fourth quarter, with further increases in volume anticipated in the first half of next year.

The NVIDIA Blackwell platform is set to become the main solution for NVIDIA’s high-end GPUs. TrendForce estimates that GB200 NVL36 shipments are expected to reach 60,000 units in 2025, with Blackwell GPU usage between 2.1 to 2.2 million units, making Blackwell the mainstream platform and accounting for over 80% of NVIDIA’s high-end GPUs.

TrendForce observes that the GB200 NVL36 architecture will initially utilize a combination of air and liquid cooling solutions, while the NVL72, due to higher cooling demands, will primarily employ liquid cooling.

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