According to IJIWEI’s report, NVIDIA recently confirmed that it is actively working on new “compliant chips” tailored for the Chinese market. However, these products are not expected to make a substantial contribution to fourth-quarter revenue.

On November 21, during NVIDIA’s earnings briefing for the third quarter of 2024, executives acknowledged the significant impact of tightened U.S. export controls on AI. They anticipated a significant decline in data center revenue from China and other affected countries/regions in the fourth quarter. The controls were noted to have a clear negative impact on NVIDIA’s business in China, and this effect is expected to persist in the long term.

NVIDIA’s Chief Financial Officer, Colette Kress, also noted that the company anticipates a significant decline in sales in China and the Middle East during the fourth quarter of the 2024 fiscal year. However, she expressed confidence that robust growth in other regions would be sufficient to offset this decline.

Kress mentioned that NVIDIA is collaborating with some customers in China and the Middle East to obtain U.S. government approval for selling high-performance products. Simultaneously, NVIDIA is attempting to develop new data center products that comply with U.S. government policies and do not require licenses. However, the impact of these products on fourth-quarter sales is not expected to materialize immediately.

Previous reports suggested that NVIDIA has developed the latest series of computational chips, including HGX H20, L20 PCIe, and L2 PCIe, specifically designed for the Chinese market. These chips are modified versions of H100, ensuring compliance with relevant U.S. regulations.

As of now, Chinese domestic manufacturers have not received samples of H20, and they may not be available until the end of this month or mid-next month at the earliest. IJIWEI’s report has indicated that insiders have revealed the possibility of further policy modifications by the U.S., a factor that NVIDIA is likely taking into consideration.

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• [News] NVIDIA Rumored to Downgrade AI Chips for China Amid U.S. Restrictions, Year-End Mass Production Expected

(Photo credit: Nvidia)

Mainland China’s 3D NAND flash memory manufacturer, Yangtze Memory Technologies Co. (YMTC), filed a lawsuit against the U.S. memory chip leader, Micron Technology, on November 9th in the Northern District Court of California. The lawsuit accuses Micron of infringing upon eight of YMTC’s U.S. patents related to 3D NAND technology.

According to ICsmart, the patents involved in this case from YMTC include US10,950,623 (3D NAND memory device and method of forming the same), US11,501,822 (Non-volatile storage device and control method), US10,658,378 (Through-array contact [TAC] for three-dimensional memory devices), and US10,937,806 (Through-array contact [TAC] for three-dimensional memory devices), US10,861,872 (Three-dimensional memory device and method for forming the same), US11,468,957 (Architecture and method for NAND memory operation), US11,600,342 (Method for reading three-dimensional flash memory), and US10,868,031 (Multiple-stack three-dimensional memory device and fabrication method  thereof).

In the complaint, YMTC alleges that Micron’s 128-layer, 176-layer, and other series of 3D NAND technology have violated eight patents owned by YMTC. Micron is accused of using YMTC’s patented technology without authorization to compete with YMTC, protecting market share and impeding YMTC’s interests, thereby inhibiting innovation.

In recent years, with the stacking of 3D NAND technology reaching 128 layers and even higher, the chip area occupied by peripheral CMOS circuits may exceed 50%. To address this issue, YMTC introduced its proprietary innovative Xtacking technology in 2018.

Established in July 2016 and headquartered in Wuhan, Hubei, YMTC is an IDM (Integrated Device Manufacturer) specializing in the design and manufacturing of 3D NAND flash memory. It also provides comprehensive memory solutions.

Under the shadow of the ongoing US-China tech rivalry, Micron Technology adopted a low-key approach at this year’s Import Expo in Shanghai. During a meeting with Micron’s CEO, Sanjay Mehrotra, Chinese Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao on November 1st welcomed Micron’s continued presence and expansion in the Chinese market, emphasizing the importance of adhering to Chinese laws and regulations for sustainable development. Mr. Mehrotra expressed the company’s willingness to further invest in China.

However, on May 21st this year, China’s Cyberspace Administration announced serious cybersecurity issues with Micron’s products sold in China. These products didn’t pass the review, leading Chinese operators to halt the purchase of Micron’s products. This indicates a potential ban on Micron’s products in the Chinese market.

In October 2022, the US imposed exprt restrictions on advanced chip manufacturing equipment, including placing 36 Chinese companies such as YMTC on an entity list.

(Photo credit: iStock)

On October 17, 2023, the U.S. government once again expanded its restrictions on the export of semiconductor devices and products to China. The newly added control conditions now encompass NVIDIA’s L40S, A100, H100H800, as well as general-purpose AI server GPUs tailored for the Chinese market, such as A800 and H800. Additionally, AMD’s MI200 series, MI300 series GPUs, and Intel’s Habana Labs’ Gaudi 2, Gaudi 3 GPUs fall under the regulatory framework.

Recalling the U.S. government’s export restrictions on AI chips issued to IC design firms in September 2022, at that time, only A100, H100, and MI200 series were subjected to control, and the U.S. Department of Commerce granted NVIDIA and AMD a one-year buffer period.

In contrast, the recent regulations not only cover all mainstream AI server GPUs but also eliminate the buffer period for these chip companies. In essence, companies or institutions in countries not permitted for export can only acquire AI server chips with performance potentially inferior to NVIDIA L40S or AMD MI200 series for the next few years.

Furthermore, stricter control thresholds for lithography equipment have led to the inclusion of ASML’s DUV, the 1980Di, in the control list. This equipment is primarily used in the 28 ~ 7nm process. Previously controlled products were focused on the EUV 3000 series for 7nm and below processes and the DUV 2000 series for 16/14 ~ 5nm processes.

This move indicates that the U.S. government’s desire to control semiconductor process technology has officially extended to mature processes of 28nm.

The expanded U.S. controls on AI chips and semiconductor manufacturing devices not only target China but also countries that might collaborate with Chinese institutions and businesses in AI development.

In this scenario, China is left with only two viable options to establish efficient AI computing resources: (1) designing and mass-producing AI server chips itself or (2) utilizing the computing resources of cloud service providers.

As the U.S. is also discussing the potential inclusion of cloud service providers in semiconductor control policies and currently formulating relevant countermeasures, this path remains unreliable for China. Therefore, the only dependable option is to independently design and manufacture AI server chips.

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• [News] Nvidia says US speeded up new export restrictions on AI chips
• [News] Chinese Chip Equipment Rises Amid U.S. Restrictions

According to TechNews’ report, Delta Electronics has held its third-quarter earnings conference yesterday, announcing at the beginning that it will spin off its EV business next year.

In the future, the company’s business will be divided into four major categories: power electronics, transportation, automation, and infrastructure, highlighting its commitment to the EV sector. Delta’s Chairman, Yancey Hai, pointed out that although the electric vehicle industry is currently facing some headwinds, the overall trend is still positive.

Delta Electronics reported consolidated revenues of NT$107.795 billion for the third quarter, representing a 7.2% increase from the previous quarter and a 1.45% increase year-on-year, marking a historic high for a single quarter. The accumulated consolidated revenues for the first three quarters reached NT$301.206 billion, an 8% year-on-year growth, setting a new high for the same period in previous years.

Delta Electronics’ gross margin for the third quarter was 29.57%, a slight decrease from the 30.29% of the same period last year, which had a high base effect. The average gross margin for the first three quarters was 28.8%, slightly lower than the 29.1% of the same period last year.

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, there is considerable attention on AI and EV developments, especially in light of recent events such as the strikes by the United Auto Workers (UAW) in the United States and concerns from American EV manufacturer Tesla and battery maker Panasonic about EV sales.

However, Delta Electronics’ Chairman Yancey Hai mentioned that while there is currently a lot of noise in the EV market, with Tesla experiencing slower sales and price reductions and the UAW strikes, the long-term outlook for EVs remains positive. Most countries have set schedules for phasing out traditional fossil-fuel vehicles, indicating a consistent trend for the future.

Yancey Hai mentioned that the primary reason for slower EV sales is the higher price of EVs compared to traditional fossil-fuel vehicles. EVs also cannot rely solely on government subsidies to boost sales. Additionally, there is still room for price reductions in the EV market. EVs have simpler construction compared to traditional vehicles, but the current high cost of batteries is a limiting factor.

In terms of orders, there will still be many new vehicle models introduced in the future. The strikes by American car manufacturers will have minimal impact on Delta Electronics. While the company may not double its growth this year, it is expected to see at least an 80% growth.

Looking ahead to the future and considering fourth-quarter revenue, CEO Ping Cheng stated that the fourth quarter will be similar to the third quarter, with improvements expected in various aspects next year compared to this year. However, there are no significant signs of a rebound in consumer electronics products and Chinese automation this year. Changes will be limited.

Consumer electronics products are awaiting the depletion of customer inventory, and next year is expected to be better than this year. As for Chinese automation, it has been impacted by the US-China trade tensions, reduced manufacturing investments, and China’s economic development. Industrial automation business also hasn’t shown growth this year.

Regarding the booming AI sector, Ping Cheng pointed out that there is currently a global arms race in AI, with the development of large AI data centers. Delta has already witnessed a significant demand in this area.

However, since AI-related processes are different from traditional servers, there is still work to be done in terms of setup. Regarding cooling, Delta has been developing air cooling, water cooling, and immersion cooling solutions. As the power density of AI continues to increase in the future, the demand for cooling will also rise.

Hai stated that the current revenue contribution from EVs is around 12%, and they expect it to increase further next year. They’re expecting the EV growth to maintain 40% to 50% momentum in the coming year. As for AI servers, it currently accounts for about 15% of the power segment, and they expect its growth to be faster in the future.

(Photo credit: Delta’s Facebook)

The U.S. Department of Commerce announced new semiconductor restrictions on October 7 in the United States. In addition to existing restrictions on the logic IC sector, this new update extends to the memory category. In addition to Chinese-funded enterprises, the extent of these restrictions stipulates foreign-owned production centers located in China will also need to apply for approval on a case-by-case basis in order to continue to obtain manufacturing-related equipment. The US ban has far-reaching effects and may extend to the global chip industry.

U.S. ban hobbles China’s semiconductor industry, affecting foundry and memory industries

The U.S. Department of Commerce announced a series of chip export control measures on the 7th, which mainly restrict China’s ability to obtain advanced computing chips, develop supercomputers, and manufacture advanced semiconductors.

However, relevant restrictions also prohibit third-country companies such as TSMC from using US-made equipment to service Chinese customers without U.S. approval in some cases. According to TrendForce, a market research agency, the ban will expand the scope of these restrictions. In the future, it will target American companies, including CPUs, GPUs, and AI accelerators, used in HPC fields such as datacenters, AI, and supercomputers. All of these items will require review before export to China. In addition, foundries may no longer be able to manufacture any of the above-mentioned HPC-related chips for any Chinese IC design house.

TrendForce believes, regardless of whether the client is a Chinese or American IC design house, most HPC-related chips are currently manufactured by TSMC with mainstream processes at the 7nm, 5nm, or certain 12nm nodes. In the future, whether the situation is American factories no longer being able to export to the Chinese market or Chinese factories being unable to initiate projects and mass produce wafer starts, it will all have a negative impact on the future purchase order status of TSMC’s 7nm and 5nm processes.

In terms of memory, according to the new specifications announced by the U.S. Department of Commerce, the DRAM portion of sanctions will be limited to the 18nm process (inclusive) and equipment must be reviewed by the Department before import. This move will greatly restrict or delay the sustainable development of China’s DRAM sector and China’s memory manufacturers will be the first to bear the brunt of these sanctions.

TrendForce indicates that CXMT possesses the largest memory market share for a Chinese company in the domestic Chinese market. Since 2Q22, the company has been committed to moving from the 19nm process into the 17nm process. Although the purchase of machinery to fulfill future needs had been accelerated before the ban, volume is still insufficient. CXMT continues to build new plants, including Phase 2 in Hefei and SMBC (SMIC Jingcheng), which is in discussion with SMIC. All of these projects will face difficulties in obtaining equipment in the future.

The C2 plant of SK hynix’s DRAM production center in Wuxi is also affected by the restriction order. The factory accounts for approximately 13% of the world’s total DRAM production capacity and its process has evolved to 1Ynm and more advanced nodes.

In terms of NAND Flash, TrendForce indicates that the import of NAND production equipment into China will be further restricted in the future, especially for equipment used in the manufacture of product of 128 layers and above (inclusive), requiring prior approval before import. It is estimated that this ban will significantly impact the long-term plans of China’s YMTC to upgrade its factory campuses, restrict YMTC from further expanding its customer base as the ban may will greatly limit non-Chinese customers’ adoption and consideration of YMTC products, and impact Samsung’s Xi’an plant and Solidigm’s process migration plan in Dalian.

U.S. temporarily exempts several suppliers as ban disrupts supply chains

In order to mitigate excessive impact of the U.S. imposed China chip ban on the semiconductor industry, the U.S. recently exempted several semiconductor companies (including in the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea) from certain restrictions.

According to Wall Street Jounal, Intel, SK Hynix, and Samsung have all received one-year exemptions. SK Hynix also issued a statement stating that the company has completed negotiations with the U.S. Department of Commerce and has obtained approval to provide equipment and items required for the development and production of DRAM semiconductors in Chinese manufacturing plants without additional licensing requirements. The authorization period is one year.

In addition, Nikkei Asia News also quoted sources as saying that TSMC has also received a one-year exemption to continue ordering U.S. chip manufacturing equipment to expand its Chinese plant. According to people familiar with the matter, the U.S. government has assured TSMC that the equipment will be shipped to its Nanjing fab, which means the company’s China’s development plan remains unchanged and is progressing smoothly.

（Image credit: iStock）