Last week, a series of U.S. employment data fueled concerns about a potential economic recession, causing the S&P 500 to drop 4.2%, marking its worst weekly performance since January 2022. U.S. 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields fell, reflecting market expectations of a more aggressive rate cut path for the rest of the year, with the 10-year/2-year Treasury yield spread turning positive. The U.S. dollar index also declined as expectations for more significant Federal Reserve rate cuts rose. Below is a recap of key economic data from last week:

• United States ISM PMI: The U.S. Manufacturing PMI for August came in at 47.2 (previous 46.8), remaining in contraction territory for the fifth consecutive month. This continued to reflect the restrictive monetary policy and uncertainties around the U.S. election, dampening corporate investment sentiment. Meanwhile, the U.S. Services PMI for August was 51.5 (previous 51.4), marking two consecutive months of expansion, with all sub-indices in expansionary territory.

Read more at Datatrack

• United States Employment Report: The U.S. unemployment rate for August was 4.2% (previous 4.3%), in line with market expectations. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 142,000 (previous 89,000), falling short of market expectations of 164,000. Additionally, nonfarm payrolls for June and July were revised downward, signaling further cooling in the U.S. labor market.

Read more at Datatrack

• Canada Monetary Policy: On September 4, the Bank of Canada (BoC) announced a 25 basis point rate cut, marking the third consecutive rate cut since June. Although inflation has returned to the target range, the BoC has begun to express concerns about the risk of deflation due to economic weakness. As a result, markets now expect that if the Canadian economy continues to deteriorate, the BoC may adopt a more aggressive rate-cutting approach.

Read more at Datatrack

Key Data to Watch This Week

• China CPI (September 9): China’s July CPI rose 0.5% year-on-year (previous 0.2%), driven primarily by food prices due to extreme weather. Excluding food and energy, core CPI was 0.4% (previous 0.6%). The market expects August CPI to rise to 0.7%, supported by seasonal demand during the summer and government policies promoting service consumption.

Read more at Datatrack

• United States CPI (September 11): U.S. CPI for July increased 2.9% year-on-year (previous 3.0%), while core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 3.2% (previous 3.3%), both in line with market expectations and marking the lowest growth since April 2021. According to the Cleveland Fed’s CPI forecast, August CPI is expected to fall to 2.56%, with core CPI projected to ease to 3.21%.

Read more at Datatrack

• Eurozone Monetary Policy (September 12): The ECB left rates unchanged during its July meeting, mainly due to rising wages, which kept services inflation elevated. However, recent data now supports a rate cut, with August’s harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) falling to 2.2% year-on-year (previous 2.6%). Additionally, adjusted wage growth, which has been a key driver of inflation, dropped to 3.5% in the second quarter (previous 4.7%). As a result, markets widely expect the ECB to cut rates again in September.

Read more at Datatrack

To counter the U.S.’s ongoing semiconductor restrictions launched the U.S., China has outspent the U.S., South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan combined on chip manufacturing equipment in the first half of this year.

However, sources cited by a report from Commercial Times have warned that China’s excessive investment could soon lead to global overcapacity issues in traditional chip production, which is similar to the oversupply problems seen in the electric vehicle and solar energy sectors in recent years.

Per the data cited by CNBC from the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI), China spent USD 24.73 billion on chip manufacturing equipment in the first half of 2024, surpassing the combined USD 23.68 billion spent by the U.S., South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan during the same period. This surge in spending is driven by China’s efforts to achieve semiconductor self-sufficiency amid U.S.-China tensions.

The report further notes that since the U.S. implemented stricter export restrictions in October 2022, Chinese companies have been rapidly accelerating their procurement. SEMI data suggests that China’s total procurement this year is expected to exceed USD 35 billion.

Citing Clark Tseng, Senior Director at SEMI, the report indicated that the current equipment stockpiling trend may continue into the second half of this year and is expected to ease only by 2025 as companies work to absorb excess capacity.

Citing Alex Capri, a Senior Lecturer at the National University of Singapore and Research Fellow at the Hinrich Foundation, CNBC pointed out that Chinese companies are preemptively stockpiling chip manufacturing equipment in response to the risk of further export restrictions from Washington before the U.S. presidential election.

Capri highlighted that as China is making smooth progress in traditional chip production, the world might soon face an oversupply of traditional chips, similar to the overcapacity issues seen in electric vehicles and solar panels.

As a result, companies outside China could struggle to compete in the sector with lower-priced products from Chinese companies.

A previous report from Bloomberg pointed out that China has thus become the largest market by revenue for top global chip equipment suppliers. The latest quarterly financial reports from companies such as Applied Materials, Lam Research, and KLA show that China contributes approximately 40% of their revenue.

For Japanese company TEL and Dutch company ASML, the contribution from the Chinese market is even more significant, with nearly half of their revenue coming from China.

Read more

• [News] China’s 1H24 Chip Equipment Purchases Exceed Taiwan, Korea, and US Combined, Reaching USD 25 Billion
• [News] China’s Import of Chip Making Equipment Hit New High This Year, with Mature Nodes Driving the Demand

(Photo credit: SMIC)

According to a report from Korean media ZDNet Korea, Chinese memory manufacturers like CXMT (Changxin Memory Technologies) are aggressively expanding production, which could negatively affect profitability in the traditional DRAM market. Both Samsung and SK hynix are said to be closely monitoring these developments.

Established in 2016, CXMT has become China’s largest DRAM producer with government backing, focusing on traditional DRAM and preparing to enter the HBM market.

Reportedly, CXMT has rapidly increased its DRAM production capacity, from 70,000 wafers per month in 2022 to 120,000 in 2023, and is projected to reach 200,000 wafers this year.

CXMT’s main products include 17nm and 18nm DDR4 and LPDDR4, with its latest offerings being 12nm DDR5 and LPDDR5X, which the company is also developing. Its aggressive DRAM expansion could negatively impact sales and profits for Korean memory manufacturers.

According to TrendForce’s data, the spot price of 16Gb DDR4 increased from $3 in the second half of 2023 to $3.50 in the first half of this year, before falling back to $3.30 in the second half of 2024.

For DDR5, prices have increased from $4.20 in October 2023 to over $4.50 in the first half of this year, approaching $5 in the second half.

By the end of August, the price premium of DDR5 over DDR4 had surged to 53.9%, up significantly from 36.9% six months earlier.

Per a recent report from Nomura Securities cited by ZDNet Korea, the rapid expansion of Chinese companies is expected to negatively impact the memory industry’s profitability, necessitating preparations for potential disruptions. CXMT’s production now accounts for about 5% of the market, potentially influencing prices.

Read more

• [News] Samsung and SK hynix’s China Revenue Doubled in 1H24, Reportedly Driven by Semiconductor and HBM Demand
• [News] China-US Chip War Escalated as YMTC Sues Micron for Patent Infringement

(Photo credit: CXMT)

Amid the escalating tech war between China and the US, along with rising geopolitical tensions, China has accelerated its import of chip manufacturing equipment since the middle of last year to counter potential US chip sanctions, with Dutch company ASML and Japanese company Tokyo Electron (TEL) benefited the most.

Notably, according to the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI), despite US sanctions preventing China from acquiring advanced EUV lithography equipment from ASML, it reported that China’s spending on chip manufacturing equipment has reached USD 25 billion in the first half of this year, exceeding the combined total of Korea, Taiwan, and the US. SEMI data also shows that China’s spending remained strong in July and is expected to set a new annual record.

Meanwhile, per the trade data from China’s General Administration of Customs cited by Bloomberg, from January to July this year, Chinese companies imported chip manufacturing equipment worth nearly USD 26 billion, surpassing the previous record set in the same period in 2021.

SEMI projects that China will become the largest investor in new fab construction, including equipment purchases. It is expected that the country’s total spending on chip equipment for the entire year of 2024 will reach USD 50 billion.

Clark Tseng, SEMI’s senior director of market intelligence, further highlighted that at least more than 10 tier-two chip manufacturers are actively purchasing new equipment, which is driving China’s overall spending.

China is now reportedly the largest market by revenue for top global chip equipment suppliers. The latest quarterly financial reports from companies such as Applied Materials, Lam Research, and KLA show that China contributes approximately 40% of their revenue.

For Japanese company TEL and Dutch company ASML, the contribution from the Chinese market is even more significant, with nearly half of their revenue coming from China.

Additionally, per a report from Commercial Times, amid a global economic slowdown, China is the only region where chip manufacturing equipment spending increased in the first half of this year compared to the same period last year.

Tseng also noted that SEMI anticipates spending on new plant construction in China will “normalize” over the next two years.

Read more

• [News] China’s Import of Chip Making Equipment Hit New High This Year, with Mature Nodes Driving the Demand
• [News] China Contributes Over 40% of U.S. Chip Equipment Makers’ Revenue despite Export Controls

(Photo credit: iStock)

Recently, wafer foundry market has seen various dynamics from related manufacturers.

TSMC is reportedly planning to build its third plant in Japan, while Samsung has delayed the construction of its Pyeongtaek P4/P5 chip plants to 2026, prioritizing the Texas Taylor wafer plant instead.

Meanwhile, SMIC, Huahong Group, and Nexchip have all released their semi-annual reports, showing steady improvements in capacity utilization rates. SMIC expects its 12-inch monthly capacity to increase by around 60,000 wafers in late 2024 compared to the end of last year.

Huahong is accelerating the construction of its new 12-inch production line in Wuxi, which is expected to start production in the first quarter of next year.

According to a survey by TrendForce, strong demand for AI server has driven the total output value of the world’s top ten wafer foundries to increase by 9.6% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, reaching USD 32 billion.

TSMC, Samsung, SMIC, Huahong Group, and Nexchip ranked first, second, third, sixth, and tenth, respectively, among the world’s top ten wafer foundries.

• TSMC Plans to Build the Third Plant in Japan After 2030

J.W. Kuo, head of Taiwan’s economic department, recently stated in an interview that TSMC plans to build its third plant in Japan to produce advanced semiconductors, with the construction expected to commence after 2030.

TSMC’s first plant in Kumamoto, Japan, (Kumamoto P1) is expected to start mass production in 4Q24 (October-December), using 28/22nm and 16/12nm process technologies, with a monthly capacity of 55,000 wafers.

The second planned plant, also located in Kumamoto, is scheduled to commence construction at the end of 2024, with operations starting in late 2027, focusing on 6/7nm processes.

The combined monthly capacity of TSMC’s Kumamoto P1 and P2 is expected to exceed 100,000 wafers. TSMC Chairman C.C.Wei mentioned in June that after the first and second plants are operational, TSMC may consider building a third plant in Kumamoto if the local residents agree.

• Samsung Delays the Construction of Pyeongtaek P4/P5 Plants to 2026, Prioritizing Texas Taylor Plant

Per global media reports on September 2, Samsung has postponed the construction of the second and fourth phase production lines of the Pyeongtaek P4 and P5 plants to 2026. Samsung is currently focusing on building a wafer plant in Taylor, Texas.

It is reported that Samsung did not conduct the necessary financial review for the Pyeongtaek P5 plant by the end of July 2024, leading to delays in the construction plans for both P5 and P4 plants.

However, the first-phase production line of P4 plant, which produces NAND Flash, is expected to start production soon. The third-phase production line is currently under construction, with plans to install power equipment after the Mid-Autumn Festival.

The original plan for P4 plant was to first build a memory production line (Phase 1), then a wafer foundry line (Phase 2), followed by additional memory and wafer foundry lines (Phases 3 and 4) to complete P4 plant.

However, it is reported that the wafer foundry business at this production line failed to meet expectations, prompting Samsung to prioritize the construction of memory production lines.

The sources cited by DRAMExchange revealed that the product lineup for the P4 Phase 2 production line is expected to be finalized between January and February 2025.

The Taylor plant began construction in the first half of 2022 and is expected to put into operation in 2026. The project’s investment scale is approximately USD 17 billion, with wafer manufacturing originally planned for the 4nm node.

However, industry news from June 2024 indicates that Samsung has added 2nm advanced process technology to meet the demand driven by the AI wave.

In April 2024, Samsung signed an agreement with the U.S. Department of Commerce to receive USD 6.4 billion in subsidies under the CHIPS Act.

• SMIC’s Revenue Grows by 23.2% Year-on-Year

Recently, SMIC released its half-yearly financial results, showing that the company achieved a revenue of CNY 26.269 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.2%.

The net profit attributable to the parent company was CNY 1.646 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 45.1%, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was CNY 1.288 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 27%.

In terms of capacity utilization, SMIC’s 8-inch utilization rate has rebounded. The company stated that its 12-inch capacity has been near full load in recent quarters, with additional effective capacity added in the first half of this year, and the new capacity has been rapidly put into production.

The company’s overall capacity utilization rate increased to 85%, up 4 percentage points from the previous quarter.

These financial results highlight two key indicators that send an important signal to the market. Although SMIC’s profits fell short of expectations, its revenue continued to rise, reflecting signs of recovery in downstream markets.

Beyond the recovery in revenue, the increase in capacity utilization is a major highlight of the report.

Data indicates that the main drivers of SMIC’s revenue turnaround were the smartphone and consumer electronics business, further demonstrating signs of recovery in the semiconductor market.

As to wafer revenue by size, demand for 8-inch wafers has rebounded, with the revenue share increasing to 26%, up 2 percentage points from the previous quarter, while the revenue share for 12-inch wafer is 74%.

Regarding capacity expansion, SMIC expects its 12-inch monthly capacity to increase by around 60,000 wafers by the end of this year compared to the end of last year. SMIC provided guidance for the third quarter, projecting a revenue growth of 13% to 15% quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin between 18% and 20%.

• Huahong’s Capacity Utilization Rate Exceeded 100% in Q2

Huahong achieved operating income of around CNY 6.732 billion in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 23.88%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 265 million, a year-on-year decrease of 83.33%.

It expects third-quarter sales revenue of CNY 500 million to 520 million, with a gross margin between 10% and 12%.

In terms of capacity utilization, Huahong reported that the company’s 8-inch capacity utilization rate surpassed 100% in the second quarter, with the 12-inch capacity utilization rate closed to full capacity.

The overall capacity utilization rate was 97.9%, a significant improvement from 91.7% in the first quarter, but still below the 102.7% capacity utilization rate in the second quarter of last year, indicating that Huahong has not yet returned to its peak level.

On product mix, Huahong’s major revenue contributors are discrete device and embedded non-volatile memory. In the second quarter of this year, the combined revenue share of these two segments was 60.5%.

Regarding production, the company is accelerating the construction of its new 12-inch production line in Wuxi.

In August, Huahong announced that the first phase of Wuxi base currently has a capacity of 94,500 wafers per month, with nearly all process platforms steadily scaling up production.

The second phase of Wuxi, after about a year of construction, is now 80% of completion, with the first equipment installation scheduled for the end of August. The production line is expected to be completed by the end of the year, with capacity to be released starting in the first quarter of next year.

• Nexchip Turned Profitable Compared to the Same Period of Last Year

Nexchip achieved a revenue of CNY 4.398 billion, a year-on-year increase of 48.09%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of CNY 187 million, turning losses into gains year on year. The company’s gross margin was 24.43%.

Nexchip mainly engages in 12-inch wafer foundry services, providing wafer foundry services for DDIC and other process platforms.

In 1H24, the revenue share from CIS has significantly increased, making it the company’s second-largest product segment, with CIS capacity running at full load.

The company’s current wafer foundry capacity is 115,000 wafers per month, and it plans to expand capacity by 30,000 to 50,000 wafers per month in 2024, focusing on 55nm and 40nm nodes, with a primary focus on advanced CIS.

From a quarter-on-quarter perspective, the semi-annual reports of the three major foundries, SMIC, Huahong, and Nexchip, indicate a gradual upturn in business performance and steady improvement in capacity utilization rate.

Industry sources cited by DRAMExchange suggested that this signals an accelerated speed of recovery in the semiconductor market, and the second half of the year may see more positive surprises.

Read more

• [News] TSMC to Build Third Fab in Japan? The Timing May Be Reportedly after 2030
• [News] Two Contrasting Trends Emerge in Wafer Foundry Industry

(Photo credit: TSMC)