The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced on August 20 that the 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) would remain unchanged at 3.35% and 3.85%, respectively, in line with market expectations. In July, the PBOC had lowered the 7-day reverse repo rate, leading to a 10 basis point reduction in both the 1-year and 5-year LPRs, as part of efforts to address the domestic economic slowdown.

However, the economic data for July, released on August 15, continue to raise concerns about China’s economic outlook. Retail sales increased from 2.0% in the previous month to 2.7%, and the year-over-year CPI growth rose from 0.2% to 0.5%. However, the core CPI, which excludes the more volatile food and energy prices, grew by only 0.4%, down from 0.6% in the previous month.

Additionally, the year-over-year growth rates for industrial production, fixed asset investment, and real estate development investment in July were 5.1% (down from 5.3% in June), 3.6% (down from 3.9% in June), and -10.2% (down from -10.1% in June), respectively, indicating a continued downward trend.

The urban survey unemployment rate, released on August 16, showed that the national unemployment rate rose by 0.2% in July compared to the previous month. The unemployment rate for the 16-24 age group, which reflects the employment situation of young people, reached 17.1%, marking a new high since the metric was adjusted in 2023.

Overall, China’s sluggish real estate market continues to weigh on domestic investment, consumer demand, and the labor market. The Chinese government may need to introduce larger-scale fiscal policies and adjust interest rates soon to stabilize the domestic economy and achieve its annual GDP growth target.

On August 15, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced restrictions on the export of the strategic mineral antimony for national security reasons, set to take effect on September 15, 2024. According to sources cited by the Commercial Times, the market price of antimony could skyrocket to USD 30,000 per ton.

Antimony is strategically significant due to its extensive applications in solar photovoltaics, batteries, fireproof materials, military equipment, and even nuclear weapons.

Meanwhile, as per data from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), China is the world’s largest producer of antimony, with a production of 83,000 tons last year, accounting for 48% of the global supply. Other major producers include Myanmar, with 4,600 tons annually, Turkey with 6,000 tons, and Tajikistan with 21,000 tons.

The report from Asia Financial on August 17 indicated that around 20% of the world’s antimony is used in manufacturing solar photovoltaic glass to enhance the performance of solar cells. Most of the remaining supply is used in lead-acid batteries.

Additionally, antimony has growing strategic importance due to its role as a key material in military equipment such as nuclear weapons, infrared missiles, and night vision devices, as well as a hardening agent for bullets and tanks.

As a result, the global supply of antimony is facing a shortage. Reportedly, since the beginning of this year, the price of this rare metal has already doubled, with current trading prices exceeding USD 22,000 per ton, setting a historic high.

Chetan Soni, president of the UK-based Commodity Research Unit (CRU), stated that given the current historical high prices, China’s recent announcement could further drive up prices. He added that prices might reach USD 30,000 per ton as buyers seek to secure future production or stockpile materials.

Soni believes that if antimony prices rise again, it will increase the Western world’s dependence on China’s critical minerals, including rare earths, gallium, and germanium, which have also faced export restrictions since last year.

Part of the market supply tightness may be due to disruptions in Russian supply, caused by sanctions imposed after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, as well as a reduction in domestic production in Russia.

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• [News] China’s AMEC Sues U.S. for Blacklisting it as a Chinese Military Company
• [News] China-US Chip War Escalated as YMTC Sues Micron for Patent Infringement

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According to a report by Nikkei, Chinese semiconductor equipment manufacturer Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc. (AMEC) has announced that it has filed a lawsuit against the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) in a U.S. court over being blacklisted as a Chinese military-industrial company.

Reportedly, in January, AMEC was placed on the U.S. Department of Defense’s list of Chinese military-industrial enterprises operating in the United States.

Thus, the company argues that this action violates procedural due process and has severely harmed its reputation. AMEC asserts that it has never engaged in any military-related activities.

Addressing the matter, neither AMEC nor the U.S. Department of Defense has commented on the matter.

The lawsuit comes days after the Financial Times reported that the U.S. Department of Defense planned to remove Chinese automotive LiDAR manufacturer Hesai Technology from its export control blacklist.

At that time, per Nikkie’s report, Hesai had sued the DOD in May and its CEO, David Li, pointed out that allegations of military ties are ridiculous.

AMEC stated that it was previously listed as a Chinese military-industrial enterprise in January 2021 but was removed from the list in June of the same year after requesting the U.S. Department of Defense to provide sufficient facts and evidence. The CEO reportedly expressed shock at AMEC’s re-inclusion on the blacklist, calling it a mistake and baseless.

AMEC specializes in chip equipment with a focus on etching processes. The company reported first-quarter revenue of CNY 1.6 billion (approximately 223 million USD), a 31% increase compared to the same period in 2023.

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• [News] China Makes Progress in Chip Tool Self-Sufficiency, Yet Lithography Remains a Key Bottleneck
• [News] ASML Former CEO Predicts Chip War Between China and the US May Persist for Decades

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According to a report from The Wall Street Journal citing sources on August 13th, it’s revealed that Chinese internet companies and telecom operators have been testing Huawei’s latest processor, the “Ascend 910C,” in recent weeks. Reportedly, Huawei has informed potential customers that this new chip is comparable to NVIDIA’s H100 GPU, which cannot be directly sold in China.

Huawei’s ability to continue advancing its chip technology is a sign of its efforts to counter U.S. sanctions. However, the report also indicated that Huawei is already experiencing production delays with its current chips. The company faces additional U.S. restrictions, limiting its access to parts for production equipment and the latest memory used in AI hardware.

The sources cited by the same report point out that, TikTok’s parent company ByteDance, search giant Baidu, and state-owned telecom operator China Mobile are in preliminary talks with Huawei to secure the Ascend 910C chip. These negotiations suggest that Huawei could secure orders for more than 70,000 chips, valued at approximately USD 2 billion.

Reportedly, Huawei aims to begin shipping the Ascend 910C in October, but the final delivery schedule might differ from the initial plan and could be subject to adjustments.

Under U.S. sanctions, customers in China are forced to purchase the H20 from NVIDIA, which is a “downgraded” version of the AI chip designed specifically for the Chinese market.

Per a previous report from South China Morning Post, it’s expected that Chinese tech giants may be considering a shift towards local AI products, which could pose a challenge to NVIDIA. Currently, China accounts for 17% of NVIDIA’s revenue in the 2024 fiscal year, making the competition in the Chinese market increasingly fierce for NVIDIA.

Compared to NVIDIA’s customers in China, NVIDIA’s U.S. customers, such as OpenAI, Amazon, and Google, will soon have access to NVIDIA’s latest Blackwell architecture chips, including new products like the GB200, which NVIDIA claims offer significantly improved performance compared to existing products.

Meanwhile,  Wall Street Journal also has cited sources, pointed out that NVIDIA is working on another China-oriented chip called B20, but the design might have trouble getting U.S. approval for China export if the regulations are further tighten.

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• [News] NVIDIA Reportedly Developing Tailored Version of the Blackwell Series for Chinese Market
• [News] U.S. Reportedly Enhancing Chip Export Restrictions to China, while NVIDIA’s H20 Might Get Banned

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Is the AI bubble about to burst? Two years after OpenAI launched ChatGPT, sparkling a surge in generative AI startups, China has now seen a wave of closures on AI companies. According to a report by Commercial Times, citing Chinese media TMTPost, nearly 80,000 AI companies in China have registered and then either closed down or suspended operations within the past 600 days.

The reports note that according to the data from the National Enterprise Credit Information Publicity System of China, between November 30, 2022, the release date of ChatGPT, and July 29, 2024, a total of 78,612 AI-related companies in China, which were newly registered during this period, are now in a deregistered or abnormal business status. This accounts for 8.9% of the 878,000 AI companies registered during the same period.

The current adversity for the AI companies in China, the reports suggest, could be attributed to excessive spendings regarding high computational costs and R&D investments, declines in venture capital leading to a funding freeze, and difficulties in achieving profitability.

According to the reports, over the past three years, more than 200,000 AI-related companies in China have been deregistered or revoked, with a total of 353,000 AI-related companies disappearing within the past decade.

On the other hand, as of August 7th, there are said to be 300,700 new AI companies registered in 2024. Currently, there are 1,804,300 AI-related companies in existence in China, the reports state.

Among them, over 4,500 companies are officially recognized as part of the AI industry system. More than 180 large generative AI models, which have completed registration and be online to provide public services, have been developed, with a registered user base exceeding 564 million.

Wang Xiaochuan, founder of Chinese search engine company Sogou, once stated in 2023 that the Large Language Model (LLM) for AI would undergo an “elimination tournament” in China, with the top tier likely consisting of no more than five companies, according to a report on Soho.

Baidu CEO Robin Li also mentioned in July that China has too many large language models, calling for tech leaders to focus more on building real-world applications driven by AI. A report by South China Morning Post, quoting Li, said that since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022, China’s generative AI market has become crowded with over 200 large language models.

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• [News] China Reportedly Imposes Mandatory AI Model Reviews on ByteDance, Alibaba, and Others

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