• With the Ongoing Expansion of Global EV Battery Market, China’s Dominant Position Steadily Strengthens

In recent years, the rapid growth of EV and energy storage markets has driven robust demand for lithium-ion batteries (LiBs). Data shows that in 2023, the total shipment of LiBs exceeded 1 terawatt-hour (TWh) for the first time, with the market size growing more than tenfold compared to 2015, and EV battery shipment accounted for over 70% of the general battery shipment.

As the electric vehicle and energy storage markets continue to grow, the demand for LiBs will enjoy further expansion, with global LiBs shipment expected to outstrip 3,200 GWh by 2027.

Despite the fact that LiB was initially commercialized in Japan in the 1990s and long dominated by Japanese and South Korean manufacturers, over two decades later, China has leapfrogged the two nations. Currently, over 75% of the world’s LiBs are produced in China, marking China’s top position in manufacturing LiB.

Likewise, in the EV battery sector, which accounts for the largest demand in the LiB market, six out of the top ten manufacturers globally are headquartered in China, including CATL, BYD, CALB, Gotion High-Tech, EVE Energy, and Sunwoda, which are expected to hold increasingly higher market shares while the market shares of Japanese and South Korean companies is declining year by year.

For instance, Panasonic’s market share in the EV battery market has dropped to around 6%, and the combined market share of South Korean manufacturers to approximately 23%.

However, with the advancement and breakthroughs in next-generation automotive battery technology—all-solid-state battery (ASSB) technology—the position of traditional liquid-state battery is being challenged.

• Next-Generation Battery Technology Comes to the Fore

On January 3, 2024, PowerCo, a battery subsidiary of Volkswagen, announced that its partner, QuantumScape, had successfully passed its first endurance test on solid-state batteries, achieving over 1,000 charge-discharge cycles while maintaining a capacity of over 95%.

Additionally, in September 2023, another solid-state battery listed company based in the US, Solid Power, announced that its first batch of A-1 solid-state battery samples had been officially delivered to BMW for automotive verification testing. BMW aims to launch its first prototype vehicle based on Solid Power’s solid-state battery technology by 2025.

Last year, Toyota has repeatedly stated its intention to commercialize solid-state battery technology by 2027-2028.

• Does All-Solid-State Battery (ASSB) Technology Truly has the Potential to Overturn Liquid-State Battery Technology?

Traditional liquid-state LiB is primarily composed of cathode and anode electrodes, separator, and electrolyte. The cathode and anode electrode materials play the role of storing lithium, which affects the battery’s energy density, while the electrolyte mainly influences the motion rate of lithium ion during charging and discharging processes, typically using liquid (Organic solvents) as the electrolyte.

However, during the charge-discharge process of traditional liquid-state LiB, side reactions can easily occur on the electrode surface. For example, lithium dendrites formed on the surface of the anode electrode can easily penetrate the separator, causing a short circuit between the cathode and anode electrodes and leading to battery fires.

In addition, the liquid electrolyte is a flammable substance, making liquid-state batteries prone to ignition and explosion under high temperatures or when the battery experiences external impacts that result in a short circuit. Therefore, liquid-state battery faces significant challenges in terms of safety.

Compared to liquid-state LiB, the electrolyte in ASSB is solid, which is less volatile or prone to combustion. Meanwhile, solid-state electrolytes are temperature-stable and less prone to decomposition, rendering them highly safe.

Furthermore, solid-state electrolytes exhibit better stability and mechanical properties, providing superior suppression of lithium dendrites and thereby enhancing battery safety.

On the other hand, traditional liquid-state LiB is limited in their choice of materials due to their narrow electrochemical window and side reactions between the liquid electrolyte and the cathode and anode electrode materials. Solid-state electrolytes, however, offer a wider electrochemical window and fewer side reactions, allowing for a broader range of electrode materials to be used in solid-state battery.

This enables the use of higher energy density active materials. For instance, solid-state battery based on lithium metal anodes can achieve energy densities of over 500 Wh/kg, while liquid-state LiBs can hardly reach this level, with a theoretical energy density limit of 350 Wh/kg. Currently, traditional liquid-state LiBs have approached their theoretical energy density limit, and there’s little room for further improvement.

On top of that, ASSB also boasts better temperature adaptability (-30 to 100°C) and high power characteristic, which can help improve the operating temperature range and fast-charging performance of EV battery.

Meanwhile, as there is no need for liquid electrolytes and separators, the weight of ASSB cells can be reduced. Additionally, processes such as electrolyte filling, degassing, molding, and aging can be removed during the cell assembly process, simplifying the cell manufacturing process. As a whole, given its outstanding performance, ASSB indeed holds the potential to revolutionize liquid-state LiB.

Currently, ASSB, in face of a series of technical challenges, has not yet achieved large-scale production. These challenges include the batch preparation of electrolyte materials, interface stability/side effects between solid materials, as well as the breakthrough of technical hurdles in cell preparation processes, production equipment, and other aspects.

Still, with significant attention and investment from countries worldwide, including Japan, South Korea, Europe, and the US, ASSB has made important progresses and is expected to achieve mass production within 3-5 years.

• Will China be Overtaken in the Market Competition of All-Solid-State Battery?

Currently, ASSB has emerged as the high ground in the competition for next-generation battery technology. The development of ASSB has been listed as a national development strategy by major countries and regions such as Japan, South Korea, the US, and the European Union, and global enterprises are actively making inroads in this field.

Based on different solid electrolyte technical routes, ASSB can be divided into four types: polymer, oxide, halide, and sulfide solid-state batteries. Each of these technology routes has its own advantages and disadvantages. Currently, Japan and South Korea mainly select sulfide as the primary technical route.

In light of the development progress of ASSB in major regions globally, Japan is an early starter in R&D, which takes a lead in the application of patents, and accumulates the most solid-state battery patented technologies worldwide. Japanese companies like Toyota and Nissan have stated their intention to achieve mass production of ASSB around 2028.

In South Korea, major battery manufacturers like Samsung SDI, SK Innovation, and LG Energy Solutions continue to invest in R&D. Samsung SDI completed the construction of a pilot production line (S-line) for ASSBs in 2023 and plans to achieve mass production in 2027.

In the United States, solid-state battery development is primarily led by startups with high innovation potential. Companies like QuantumScape and Solid Power have solid-state battery products in the A-sample stage, while SES’ lithium-metal solid-state batteries have entered the B-sample stage. Other US companies such as Ampcera, Factorial Energy, 24M Technologies, and Ionic Materials have channeled more efforts in solid-state battery technical innovation.

Overall, the period around 2028 is expected to be tipping point for the mass production of ASSB.

Although China is currently the world’s largest manufacturer of LiB, there is still a significant gap between Chinese companies and international ones in terms of patent layout for ASSB.

Additionally, China’s solid-state battery technical routes are diverse, with a focus mainly on semi-solid/state-liquid hybrids, with semi-solid-state battery achieving small-scale production and adoption in vehicles, but investment in ASSB remains insufficient in China, and resources are dispersed. This has led to a significant difference compared to international forerunners.

Therefore, in the future competition for ASSB, companies from Japan, South Korea, Europe, and the US have the opportunity to surpass China and reshape the competitive landscape of future EV battery industry.

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• [News] The US Administration Rumored to Announce USD 7 Billion Grant for Samsung to Boost Chip Capacity
• [News] TSMC Receives USD 6.6 Billion for Chipmaking from the US Government, Commits to Constructing Third Fab

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The US Department of Commerce has added leading Chinese solution provider Sitonholy, who primarily sells processors from Intel and NVIDIA, to its Entity List. This inclusion on the Entity List undoubtedly impacts Sitonholy but also has significant implications for American companies like Intel and NVIDIA.

According to reports from the South China Morning Post and Reuters, Sitonholy sells hardware based on Intel and NVIDIA technologies and also provides cloud services. As a result, US companies engaging in business with Sitonholy require export licenses from the Department of Commerce, but these license applications are presumed to be denied during the review process.

This development is a significant blow to Sitonholy and American companies alike. Kevin Kurland, a US export enforcement official, stated during a hearing of the US Senate subcommittee that the US government has placed four Chinese companies on an export blacklist for assisting the Chinese military in obtaining AI chips. The four Chinese companies are Linkzol Technology, Xi’an Like Innovative Information Technology, Beijing Anwise Technology, and Sitonholy.

A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson criticized the United States for unfairly targeting Chinese companies through export controls and demanded that the US stop politicizing trade and technology issues.

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• [News] US Government Considers Adding ChangXin Memory Technologies to Entity List, Imposing Further Sanctions on Chinese Firms
• [News] Bypassing U.S. Restrictions? CXMT Showcases GAA Technology for 3nm Chips
• DRAM Industry Sees Nearly 30% Revenue Growth in 4Q23 Due to Rising Prices and Volume, Says TrendForce

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Amid escalating tensions in the US-China tech war, rumors cited in reports from The Wall Street Journal and CNBC suggest that China has instructed major local telecom companies to gradually replace foreign chips by 2027, with Intel and AMD as the primary targets.

Sources cited in the same reports reveal that China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has instructed several major local telecom operators to phase out foreign chips used in core telecommunications infrastructure by 2027. This move is expected to impact both Intel and AMD. Regarding this matter, CNBC reports that Intel declined to comment on the report, AMD didn’t respond to a request for comment, either.

It has been reported that Chinese authorities have ordered state-owned telecom operators to inspect their networks for extensive use of non-Chinese manufactured chips and to replace them before the deadline.

In the past, China has attempted to reduce its reliance on foreign chips but has faced obstacles due to a lack of high-quality locally produced chips. However, telecom operators now have more local alternatives for procurement, suggesting that the quality of Chinese-made chips may have become more stable and reliable.

Sources cited in the same reports indicate that this move will have the most significant impact on Intel and AMD, as most of the core processors used in Chinese and global networking equipment come from these two tech giants. However, the exact extent of the impact is still unknown.

On the other hand, a previous report from the Financial Times also indicated that, to refrain from using PCs and servers equipped with microprocessors from Intel and AMD, China implemented new regulations in December of last year requiring government agencies at the county level and above.

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• [News] Escalating US China Tech War! China Reportedly Tightens Grip on Intel and AMD, Impacting TSMC
• [News] US Considers Sanctioning Huawei-Linked Chinese Chip Network, Huawei-Related Enterprises Blacklisted

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In 2024, trade tensions between China and the EU have intensified. On April 10th, the European Commission updated its report on distortive economic practices in China, expanding to include new industries such as telecommunications equipment, semiconductors, railways, renewable energy, and electric vehicles.

According to a report from Commercial Times, despite strong protests from China, the updated report from the European Union indicates that EU manufacturers may have filed anti-dumping complaints against Chinese chip and clean technology producers.

The Hong Kong Economic Journal (HKEJ) reported on April 11 that the latest updated version of the EU report, namely ‘COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT ON SIGNIFICANT DISTORTIONS IN THE ECONOMY OF THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA FOR THE PURPOSES OF TRADE DEFENCE INVESTIGATIONS‘, spans 712 pages. In addition to retaining industries like steel, aluminum, chemicals, and ceramics from the initial 2017 report, it has expanded to cover various new areas.

These include the role of the Chinese government in planning economic objectives, the importance of state-owned enterprises, special treatment in land, labor, raw materials, and energy for specific industries, and state subsidies, alleging distortive practices.

Previously, the EU’s new regulation on “Foreign Subsidies” came into effect in July 2023, followed by an announcement in October of the same year to initiate an anti-dumping investigation into Chinese electric vehicles. In response, China launched an anti-dumping investigation in January this year on distilled brandy containers of 200 liters or less originating from the EU.

Subsequently, the EU took action against Chinese company CRRC, prompting its withdrawal from public procurement tenders in Bulgaria. Recently, the EU escalated by announcing an investigation into Chinese-made wind turbines.

Despite escalating tensions in China-EU trade relations, when Chinese Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao visited Europe on April 7th, one of his main tasks was said to stabilize China-EU relations, maintain dialogue on trade disputes, and pave the way for Chinese President Xi Jinping’s planned visit to France in early May.

During Wang Wentao’s visit, he denied that Chinese automakers gain a competitive advantage through massive subsidies and emphasized that the anti-dumping investigation into EU brandy launched in January is unrelated to the electric vehicle dispute.

However, on April 10th, officials from China’s Ministry of Commerce Trade Remedy Bureau expressed a firm stance during a meeting with Lucais, Director of Trade Defence at the European Commission in Brussels. China stated that the updated report distorts China’s policies, market environment, and economic system, providing grounds for discriminatory anti-dumping measures. China expressed strong concern and opposition to this.

On the other hand, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is set to lead a delegation to China on April 13th, with top executives from German companies such as BMW and Mercedes-Benz accompanying him.

According to a recent Reuters report, despite a nearly one-fifth decline in imports from China between 2022 and 2023, Germany maintains a high dependency on China for categories like chemicals, computers and solar cells. The “clear structural de-risking” is reportedly yet evident.

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• [News] Japan and EU Reportedly Collaborate on Advanced Materials Research to Reduce Over-Reliance
• [Insights] EV Development Faces New Challenges, Porsche CFO Suggests Delay in European Ban on New Fuel Cars

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According to a report from Nikkei Asia, Chinese tech giant Huawei is building a semiconductor equipment research and development center in Shanghai to navigate U.S. export controls and strengthen its chip supply chain.

As per the same report from Nikkei Asia, Huawei is offering salaries double that of its competitors to recruit experienced talent. However, industry sources cited by the same report suggest that Huawei’s demanding work culture may make retaining talent challenging, despite the attractive pay.

The report further highlights the center’s crucial role in developing photolithography machines, essential for advanced chip production. U.S. export controls have made it difficult for Huawei to access such equipment, which is primarily manufactured by three global leaders: ASML from the Netherlands, Nikon, and Canon from Japan.

Sources cited in the report has revealed that Huawei’s new research center is located in the western Qingpu district of Shanghai, featuring spacious grounds housing the main chip development center and the new headquarters of HiSilicon, Huawei’s semiconductor design division.

The area also hosts wireless technology and smartphone development centers. As per the Qingpu District People’s Government in Shanghai, once completed, the park will accommodate over 35,000 high-tech workers.

To attract talent, Huawei reportedly offers salaries twice that of local chip manufacturers. Industry sources cited in the report further noted that Huawei has recruited engineers with experience collaborating with top global semiconductor equipment manufacturers like Applied Materials, Lam Research, KLA, and ASML. Engineers with over 15 years of experience at chip manufacturers such as TSMC, Intel, and Micron are also on Huawei’s potential recruitment list.

The export control measures implemented by the United States in recent years have made it more difficult for Chinese citizens to work for global chip companies in China. This has left Huawei and other Chinese semiconductor enterprises with a larger pool of top chip talent to choose from.

Regarding the matter, TrendForce has addressed the export restrictions on semiconductor equipment by the US and its allies present significant hurdles for Chinese foundries in obtaining essential tools. To counter these challenges, the Chinese government, alongside local suppliers, is intensifying R&D efforts to produce domestic semiconductor equipment, especially for 16/12nm processes and smaller.

This has led to increased collaboration between Chinese foundries and local suppliers in both R&D and qualification processes. Despite these efforts, China’s progress in lithography tools is limited to the 90nm node, which remains a significant obstacle in achieving complete self-sufficiency in semiconductor equipment.

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• [News] US Considers Sanctioning Huawei-Linked Chinese Chip Network, Huawei-Related Enterprises Blacklisted
• [News] US Government Considers Adding ChangXin Memory Technologies to Entity List, Imposing Further Sanctions on Chinese Firms

(Photo credit: Huawei)