Dutch semiconductor equipment giant ASML has released its Q3 2023 financial report, showing a significant decline in orders for the third quarter, far below expectations. This suggests signs of weakened demand for ASML’s chip manufacturing equipment in the semiconductor industry during a lackluster economic climate. In its financial statement on the 18th, ASML revealed that the total value of orders received in the third quarter from July to September decreased by 42% compared to the previous quarter, amounting to 2.6 billion euros (approximately 2.8 billion USD). In contrast, analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had estimated an average order value of 4.5 billion euros.

ASML is the sole manufacturer of the cutting-edge semiconductor lithography equipment required for semiconductor production. Earlier this year, they experienced significant revenue growth as Chinese semiconductor firms rushed to place substantial orders before the U.S. export control measures came into effect.

During the video interview when announcing the financial results, ASML’s CFO Roger Dassen, stated that the overall economic situation has not improved,” There’s still pockets of inflation. We still see interest rates at pretty elevated levels. We still see GDP growth in some economies that is not where people expected that to be. Then I think there are quite some geopolitical tensions.”

ASML’s Q3: China Sales at 46% with Mature Process Clients

China accounted for 46% of ASML’s Q3 sales, higher than 24% in the second quarter and 8% in the first quarter. Taiwan accounted for 24% of sales, while South Korea accounted for 20%. As ASML’s CFO, Roger Dasse explained, the sales in China were notably high due to shipments serving mid-critical and mature nodes based on earlier purchase orders. Shifts in demand timing from other customers have raised our Chinese customers’ order-fill rate, resulting in increased sales in China. All shipments complied with export regulations.

In terms of equipment type sales in the third quarter, ASML sold a total of 105 new lithography machines, including 7 second-hand machines, categorized by product type as follows: 11 EUV machines, 32 ArFi (immersion DUV lithography machines), 9 ArF dry (dry DUV lithography machines), 44 KrF machines, and 16 I-Line machines.

Regarding terminal applications, lithography machines for manufacturing logic chips represented 76% of sales, while those for manufacturing memory chips accounted for 24% of sales. In terms of revenue, ArFi immersion lithography machines accounted for a substantial 48%, with EUV lithography machines at 35%.

“Our Chinese customers say: We are happy to take the machines that others don’t want,” Peter Wennink, ASML’s CEO said. “Because their fabs are ready. They can take the tools.”.

U.S. Export Rules Impact on ASML’s 1980Di Tool and Sales

ASML is targeted by U.S. efforts to curb the export of advanced technology to China. Earlier this year, the Biden administration convinced the Dutch government not to allow ASML to ship some immersion DUV equipment to China without a permit. These Dutch restrictions are scheduled to take effect on January 1st of the following year. Currently, ASML has already been prohibited from selling its most advanced EUV machines to China.

During the press conference after the financial report, Peter Wennink mentioned that despite the expanded export control lists implemented by the U.S. and Dutch governments, he expects strong demand from Chinese semiconductor manufacturers. Additionally, another ASML product not covered by the Dutch export permit rules for this year, the 1980Di deep ultraviolet exposure machine (DUV), has now been restricted according to the new export regulations announced by the U.S. on the 17th of the month.

1980Di is used to assist in the production of relatively advanced computer chips, as well as mid-range and older chips. Wennink stated, “In principle, the 1980 series will be subject to export control regulations, but only when… (they are) used in advanced semiconductor manufacturing.” He also mentioned that only a few Chinese semiconductor factories are considered “advanced.”

ASML anticipates steady operations in 2024

According to a report by Money DJ, ASML also announced its financial forecast for the fourth quarter of 2023, estimating net sales of approximately 6.7 billion to 7.1 billion euros, with a gross margin ranging from 50% to 51%. Research and development costs are estimated at around 1.03 billion euros, while selling and administrative expenses (SG&A) are estimated at 285 million euros. ASML confirms that, as previously anticipated, 2023 has seen robust growth, with a projected increase in net sales approaching 30% and a slight improvement in gross margin, compared to 2022.

ASML stated that the semiconductor industry is currently experiencing a cyclical downturn, with customers anticipating a turnaround in demand by the end of the year. Since customers remain uncertain about the strength and pace of the industry demand recovery, 2024 is expected to be a transitional year. The company is adopting a more conservative estimate, with 2024 revenue expected to be similar to 2023. Preparations are being made for significant growth in 2025.

Explore more:

• New Sanctions to Slash China’s Demand for High-End AI Servers to a Mere 3–4% in 2023, Says TrendForce
• [News] Huawei May Emerge as a Winner as the U.S. Tightens Export Restrictions
• [News] China’s Related Companies Brace by Stockpiling Due to New U.S. Chip Ban

(Image: ASML)

The United States has elevated its efforts to curtail the advancement of high-end chips in China. As reported by the CLS News, various companies within China have indicated they received advance notifications and have already amassed chip stockpiles. Analysts suggest that this new wave of bans implies a further restriction by the U.S. on China’s computational capabilities, making the development of domestically-manufactured GPUs in China a matter of utmost importance.

According to the latest regulations, chips, including Nvidia’s A800 and H800, will be impacted by the export ban to China. An insider from a Chinese server company revealed they received the ban notice at the beginning of October and have already stockpiled a sufficient quantity. Nevertheless, they anticipate substantial pressure in the near future. The procurement manager for a downstream customer of Inspur noted that they had proactively shared this information and urged potential buyers to act promptly if they require related products.

Larger companies like Tencent and Baidu are less affected by the ban due to their ample stockpiles. On October 17th, HiRain Technologies announced that its subsidiary had purchased 75 units of H800 and 22 units of A800 from supplier A and had resolved this issue two weeks ago.

(Image: NVIDIA)

The U.S. government tightened its control over exports of advanced computing and semiconductor manufacturing products to China on October 17th. The Entity List now includes more Chinese companies, including two prominent Chinese GPU manufacturers, Biren Technology and Moore Threads. These new restrictions further limit the export of Nvidia A800 and H800 chips.

The new regulations also block chips transferring to China through third-party countries, broadening the export restrictions to include Chinese overseas subsidiaries companies and additional 21 countries.

As reported from TechNews, Nomura Securities are unsurprising to Biren Technology and Moore Threads’ addition to the Entity List. These two chip makers primarily rely on TSMC as their main partner. Due to their limited production capacity, the influence on TSMC is anticipated to be minimal.

Since the U.S. initiated export controls on AI chips in October last year, operations of Biren Technology have continuously been affected. This new development is anticipated to have a relatively limited impact on the Chinese IC design market.

However, the import of ASML’s 1980i DUV model into China may be restricted without U.S. approval. Nomura Securities believe that this could negatively affect the Chinese semiconductor market, potentially causing delays in the expansion plans for 28nm production capacity for some Chinese semiconductor companies. These companies will also likely continue to postpone the purchase of domestic equipment.

Since the import of Nvidia A800, H800, and L40S into China might not be allowed, Nomura Securities consider this unfavorable news for the market. Nvidia may soon introduce new versions to comply with the new regulations. In this scenario, Huawei, with its capacity to design and manufacture advanced chips within China, may ultimately emerge as the most significant beneficiary in the Chinese market, as most Chinese GPU companies are already under sanctions.

The updated U.S. export restrictions also imply that more foreign manufacturers of AI chips will need to adjust their product specifications to meet the new requirements.

Explore more 

• Biden Tightens Export Restrictions to China, Nvidia’s Chips Impacted Most

(Image: Flickr)

According to TechNews on October 18th, The Biden administration has once again tightened restrictions on chip exports to China, and this includes Nvidia’s advanced AI chips.

In a recent press release, the U.S. government announced a renewed restrictions on exports of advanced computing and semiconductor manufacturing products to China. Notably, this includes Nvidia’s cutting-edge AI chips, which will be impacted and could potentially face restrictions on sales to China. The motive behind this action by the Biden administration is to prevent China from bolstering its military capabilities by accessing advanced U.S. technology.

Apart from Nvidia, chip products from industry giants like Intel and AMD might also encounter hurdles in their journey to China. In addition to the actual chips, products from semiconductor equipment manufacturers such as Lam Research, KLA, and Applied Materials may also face increased limitations when destined for China.

These new restrictions, as revealed by the U.S. government, are even more stringent than previous limitations on chip exports. Nvidia’s A800 and H800 chips are among those falling under these tightened restrictions. As a direct consequence, Nvidia’s stock price took a sharp dip, decreasing by nearly 5% on Tuesday.

Following the recent U.S. government ban, Nvidia’s spokesperson, Ken Brown, promptly assured that the company strictly adheres to all relevant regulations. Nvidia is committed to supporting a wide array of products across diverse industries. Given the global demand for Nvidia’s offerings, it’s anticipated that these restrictions will have no immediate, substantial impact on Nvidia’s financial performance.

In a bid to curtail China’s potential access to U.S. chips through third-party channels, these limitations now extend to include the overseas subsidiaries of Chinese firms. Furthermore, the updated regulations expand the list of countries subject to additional export license requirements for advanced chips to over 40 more nations. This expansion is driven by the concern that these countries might transfer chips to China and their presence on the U.S. arms embargo list.

Notably, the interim final rule revises ECCN 3A090 and 4A090 and enforces extra licensing prerequisites for exports to China and the D1, D4, and D5 country groups. These groups include nations like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Vietnam, though Israel remains excluded.

To safeguard against China’s potential acquisition of U.S. chips through alternative routes, these restrictions have been extended to encompass overseas subsidiaries of Chinese corporations and involve 21 other countries.

However, reports from foreign media indicating that this new U.S. regulation will exempt certain consumer chips used in laptops, smartphones, and gaming consoles. Nonetheless, some chips may still necessitate prior notification and licensing from the U.S. government to be exported.

It’s noteworthy that the U.S. government’s list of newly restricted entities includes two prominent local GPU companies, Moore Thread Technology and Biren Technology. Following the U.S. ban, both firms promptly issued statements of strong protest.

Moore Thread expressed their strong objection, saying, “We are deeply concerned about the inclusion of Moore Thread in the Entity List by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Our company is actively engaging with various stakeholders, and we are assessing the impact of this development.”

Biren Technology also issued a statement, stating, “We vehemently oppose the U.S. Department of Commerce’s actions and will proactively appeal to relevant U.S. government departments, urging them to reconsider their stance.”
(Image: Nvidia)

(Data: US BIS)

Reports indicate that the United States is poised to unveil an updated set of restrictions on chip exports to China this week. Beyond the previously reported tightening measures on AI chips and equipment exports, these new regulations are expected to restrict the supply to chip design companies. The aim is to enhance control over the sale of graphic chips and advanced chip manufacturing equipment for AI applications to Chinese enterprises, with the possibility of adding Chinese chip design companies to the list of restricted entities.

As reported from Reuters and Bloomberg, U.S. authorities will demand that overseas manufacturers obtain licenses to fulfill orders from these companies and subject Chinese firms attempting to circumvent restrictions by using third-party countries for shipping to additional inspections. While the new regulations are expected to be announced this week, the potential for delays should not be ruled out.

In October 2022, the United States declared export restrictions on advanced semiconductor processes and chip manufacturing equipment bound for China, as a measure to prevent the development of cutting-edge technology that could potentially bolster military capabilities for geopolitical adversaries.

Following the implementation of these export bans, U.S. tech companies, such as Nvidia and Applied Materials, incurred significant losses in orders. For example, Nvidia was unable to sell its two most advanced AI chips to Chinese companies, leading to the introduction of a “downgraded” chip, the H800, designed specifically for the Chinese market to bypass existing regulations.

U.S. officials have revealed plans to introduce new guidelines for AI chips, including the restriction of certain advanced data center AI chips that currently do not fall under any limitations. They are considering the removal of “bandwidth parameters” to prevent the entry of AI chips perceived as too powerful into China.

However, they plan to introduce expanded guidelines for chip control, which may reduce communication speeds among AI chips. Slower communication could increase the complexity and cost of AI development, particularly when many chips need to be connected for training large AI models. Additionally, the U.S. will introduce “performance density parameters” to guard against potential future workarounds by companies.

Reports suggest that the United States is looking to prohibit the export of Nvidia’s H800 chip, a “downgraded” chip designed for the Chinese market to legally bypass existing regulations.

The Biden administration is also preparing for additional scrutiny of Chinese companies attempting to modify shipping and manufacturing locations in a bid to evade specific country restrictions. This rule will continue to limit sales of specific chips to Chinese companies through overseas subsidiaries and related entities, requiring authorization before exporting restricted technology to countries that could serve as intermediaries.

Furthermore, the progress in Huawei’s new smartphones has prompted the U.S. authorities to tighten control further, initiating investigations for actions against Huawei or SMIC that will be carried out independently of the new export control regulations.

In response to the anticipated expansion of U.S. export controls on Chinese companies, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning stated, “We have made our position clear on US restrictions of chip exports to China. The US needs to stop politicizing and weaponizing trade and tech issues and stop destabilizing global industrial and supply chains. We will closely follow the developments and firmly safeguard our rights and interests.”

(Image: Nvidia)