While South Korean memory giants Samsung Electronics and SK hynix saw their sales in China double in the first half of this year, the country as a whole seems to heavily rely on China for essential semiconductor raw materials as well, with silicon, germanium, gallium and indium seeing the largest increase, according to a report by the Korea Eximbank Overseas Economic Research Institute on September 24 cited by Business Korea.

Despite the efforts to diversify supply chains, the report highlights the growing reliance of South Korea on China for critical semiconductor raw materials. For instance, the importance of silicon, a vital component in silicon wafer production, has been increasing, as the country’s reliance on China for the ingredient rose from 68.8% to 75.4% in 2022, the report states.

Meanwhile, South Korea’s reliance on rare earths, which are used in semiconductor abrasives, is also said to be on the rise, the report notes. The reliance on tungsten, crucial for semiconductor metal wiring, experienced a slight increase as well.

It is worth noting that since August of last year, the Chinese government has imposed export restrictions on critical minerals, including germanium and gallium, as a counteract to U.S. export sanctions. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, China produces 98% of the world’s gallium and 60% of germanium.

Even before the sanction, there is a significant rise in South Korea’s dependence on China for these critical minerals. Business Korea notes that the country’s dependence on germanium, which is frequently used in next-gen compound semiconductors, surged by 17.4 percentage points to 74.3% in 2022.

In addition, reliance on gallium and indium increased by 20.5 percentage points to 46.7%, according to the report.

Under the scenario of China’s export restrictions on key minerals, which were implemented in August and December of last year, the local production by major Chinese companies has not significantly declined, the report notes.

For instance, Samsung’ NAND flash facility in Xi’an, China, has increased its share for the company’s total NAND capacity during the past few years, from 29% in 2021 to 37% in 2023, with expectations to reach 40% this year, according to the report.

Read more

• [News] China’s Gallium and Germanium Export Restrictions Risk Chip Production Shortages
• [News] Chip War Escalates: China to Enforce State Ownership of All Rare Earth Materials in October

(Photo credit: Samsung)

Faced with the dual challenges of an aging population and a sluggish economy, China has decided to undertake a significant reform, announcing the first increase in the retirement age since the 1950s. The new policy raises the retirement age for men to 63, while for women, it will be adjusted to between 55 and 58, depending on the nature of their work. Experts suggest that the rapid pace of China’s aging population makes delaying retirement an unavoidable choice.

Currently, the retirement age for blue-collar male workers in China is set at 60, while for female workers it is 50. Female white-collar workers retire at 55. These retirement ages were established in the 1950s when the average life expectancy was around 40 years. In addition to raising the retirement age, the period for contributing to the pension fund will also be extended—from 15 years to 20 years starting in 2030.

China’s population is aging rapidly. The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences warned this year that the public pension system, which is the main source of income for most elderly people in China, will run out of funds by 2035.

Continuous Population Decline

The reason for the dwindling population is that China’s low birth rate is advancing faster than that of other countries. In 2022, China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported that, for the first time, the year-end population decreased by 850,000 compared to the previous year, marking a turning point from population growth to decline. In 2023, the population further decreased by 2 million, marking the second consecutive year of decline.

Read more at Datatrack

In 2022, China’s total fertility rate dropped to 1.05 children per woman, down from 1.5 in 2019. The working-age population in China is expected to decline from 976 million this year to 938 million by 2030. With various government policies aimed at boosting the birth rate proving ineffective, there is an urgent need to adapt to an aging society with a lower fertility rate.

Read more at Datatrack

Rapid Formation of an Aging Society

Reports indicate that last year, China surpassed the United Nations’ threshold for an “aging society,” with at least 14% of its population aged 65 and above. By around 2035, the proportion of people aged 65 and over is expected to increase to 30%.

At this rate, China could move from an aging stage to a super-aged stage in just nine years—a pace faster than any major country except South Korea. Japan took 11 years to make the same transition, Germany took 34 years, and the United States is expected to make this transition in 14 years.

Meanwhile, China’s fiscal situation has been deteriorating. Due to weak domestic demand and low business confidence, China’s fiscal revenue fell by 2.8% year-on-year in the first half of this year. Local governments have struggled to cope with a fiscal crisis as their revenue from land sales has dried up. Internal analysis in China suggests that delaying the retirement age to 65 by 2035 could reduce the pension budget deficit by 20%.

The Chinese government began discussing delaying retirement as early as 2008 but has been hesitant to take action due to concerns about political backlash. Now, with youth unemployment already high and the economy sluggish, the announcement of a retirement delay is bound to bring additional social pressure. Political commentators see this as a necessary course adjustment, arguing that faced with the worsening demographic challenge, the Chinese government has no other choice.

(Photo credit: Flickr/Thomas Berg CC By2.0)

Weekly Market Review:

Last week, a rebound in technology stocks propelled the S&P 500 to a 4% gain, positioning it to once again challenge historical highs. U.S. 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields continued to decline, reflecting expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and the spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields widened to approximately 10 basis points. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index fluctuated around the 101 level.

Key Economic Data Review:

China CPI: China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.6% year-over-year in July (previous: 0.5%). The rise in August was similarly influenced by extreme weather conditions, which drove food prices higher. Excluding food and energy, the core CPI stood at 0.3% (previous: 0.4%). Regarding the Producer Price Index (PPI), August’s PPI decreased by 1.8% year-over-year (previous: -0.8%), marking the 23rd consecutive month of decline. This indicates that deflationary pressures in China are persisting and showing signs of intensification.

Read more at Datatrack

United States CPI: U.S. CPI increased by 2.5% year-over-year in August (previous 2.9%), with a monthly rise of 0.2% (same as the previous 0.2%). Breaking down the components, the year-over-year growth rate of housing services prices rebounded to 5.2% in August (previous: 5.1%). However, due to energy prices declining by 4% year-over-year (previous: +1.1%) pulled the overall CPI lower. Core CPI remained steady at 3.2% year-over-year (same as the previous 3.2%), with a monthly increase of 0.3% (previous 0.2%). Both CPI and core CPI annual growth rates were the lowest since February 2021.

Read more at Datatrack

Eurozone Monetary Policy: In its September policy meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to cut the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 3.5% and announced the narrowing of the interest rate corridor, effective from September 18. The main refinancing rate and marginal lending rate were lowered by 60 basis points, reducing their respective spreads to 15 and 25 basis points relative to the deposit facility rate. On the economic outlook, the ECB raised its core inflation forecast for 2024 to 2026 to 2.9%, 2.3%, and 2.0% (June forecasts: 2.5%, 2.2%, and 1.9%), citing stronger-than-expected service sector inflation. However, due to restrictive financial conditions dampening private consumption and investment, the ECB lowered its economic growth projections for 2024 to 2026 to 0.8%, 1.3%, and 1.5% (June forecasts: 0.9%, 1.4%, and 1.6%).

Read more at Datatrack

Key Data to Watch This Week:

U.S. Retail Sales (9/17): U.S. retail sales grew by 2.7% year-over-year in July (previous 2.0%), with a monthly increase of 1% (previous -0.2%). The July rise was largely driven by a 4% rebound in auto sales, reflecting recovery from the June slowdown caused by a cyberattack. The market expects August retail sales to normalize, with year-over-year growth slowing to 2.2% and a monthly increase of 0.2%.

Read more at Datatrack

U.S. Monetary Policy (9/19): During the Jackson Hole symposium, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled that the time for policy adjustments had arrived, raising market expectations for a rate cut at the upcoming meeting. However, recent mixed U.S. economic data have created uncertainty regarding the size of the rate cut. According to Fed Watch data, the probabilities of a 25-basis-point and 50-basis-point cut are both at 50%.

Read more at Datatrack

Japan Monetary Policy (9/20): After the Bank of Japan raised rates in July and indicated that it would refrain from further hikes in times of market instability, the market expects the BOJ to hold rates steady at this meeting, with the possibility of another rate hike in October or December.

Read more at Datatrack

—
(Photo Crited: Pixabay )

According to a Bloomberg report on September 12, the Chinese government is encouraging local carmakers to export knock-down kits to their overseas factories, where key car components are produced in China and then shipped to the destination markets for final assembly. This strategy aims to avoid punitive tariffs on Chinese cars, while ensuring that advanced EV technologies remain within China.

In recent months, Chinese electric vehicles have faced tariff barriers in Europe and the U.S. On May 14, the White House announced an increase in tariffs on Chinese EV imports to 100%. The European Union imposed additional tariffs on pure electric vehicles from China starting July 4. On August 26, per a report from Reuters, Canada also announced a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles.

To avoid these tariffs, Chinese car manufacturers are setting up production facilities abroad. For instance, BYD signed a USD 1 billion investment agreement with the Turkish government on July 8 to build a factory in Turkey with an annual production capacity of 150,000 electric vehicles, expected to start operations by the end of 2026.

Reportedly, it’s hinted that the new factory may facilitate BYD’s entry into the European market, given Turkey’s customs union agreement with the EU. Turkey also imposed a 40% tariff on Chinese cars in June. Regarding this matter, BYD declined to comment.

The report from Bloomberg also claims that, in July, China’s Ministry of Commerce held a meeting with several car manufacturers.

During this meeting, the Ministry suggested keeping key EV technologies within China and instructed that car manufacturers should avoid making any automotive-related investments in India.

Additionally, companies planning to invest in Turkey were advised to notify both the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, which oversees China’s EV industry, and the Chinese embassy in Turkey.

The Ministry of Commerce indicated that countries inviting Chinese car manufacturers to set up factories are typically those considering or implementing trade barriers against Chinese vehicles. Officials reportedly advised attendees not to blindly follow trends or trust investment offers from foreign governments.

The Ministry’s guidance to keep critical production within China may hinder the global expansion efforts of these manufacturers, who are seeking new customers to offset intense competition and sluggish domestic sales, factors that are impacting their profitability.

This measure could also affect European countries that have been courting Chinese manufacturers, hoping to attract job opportunities and boost their local economies.

Read more

• [News] EU Plans to Cut Tariffs on China-Made Tesla EVs from 20% to 9%, with Final Decision Expected in October
• [News] Punitive Tariffs on Chinese EVs by US Reportedly to Further Hinder BYD, Leapmotor and Others’ Global Expansion Plan, while EU Investigation Persists

(Photo credit: BYD)

In recent years, the U.S., Japan and the Netherlands, have increasingly expanding restrictions on China in semiconductor technology. South Korea, on the other hand, has been cautiously responding to U.S. demands due to its significant dependence on the Chinese market.

Yet, according to a report by South Korean media outlet The Korea Herald, the U.S. is increasing pressure on South Korea to comply with its export controls to China.

At the Korea-U.S. Economic Security Conference 2024 held in Washington, D.C. on September 10th, U.S. Commerce Department Undersecretary Alan Estevez called on South Korea’s two leading HBM manufacturers, Samsung and SK hynix, to align with U.S. export controls on China. He urged that their production capacity be reserved for supplying advanced chips to allied nations, rather than competitors such as China.

Estevez emphasized his appreciation for South Korea’s long-standing cooperation with the U.S., but pointed out that since AI can be used for military purposes, it is crucial to prevent China from acquiring advanced chips to train AI models.

South Korea’s Trade Minister Cheong In-kyo responded that while they will discuss the matter with the U.S., export controls have a significant impact on South Korea’s businesses and economy.

Some industry sources cited by The Korea Herald have further pointed out that the direct export volume of chips from Samsung and SK hynix to China is not significant, so the actual impact may be limited.

However, per a previous Reuters report cited sources, it’s indicated that about 30% of Samsung’s HBM chip sales in the first half of this year were to China.

The Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade noted that, unlike Japan and the Netherlands, South Korea cannot fully align with U.S. export control measures due to its significant reliance on exports to China.

Per the Chosun Daily citing data from South Korea’s Ministry of Trade, Industry, and Energy and the Korea International Trade Association, it’s shown that in July of this year, South Korea’s exports to China increased by 14.9% year-on-year to USD 11.4 billion, the highest since October 2022. Notably, memory exports surged 89% year-on-year to USD 6.8 billion.

Semiconductor exports saw particularly strong growth, with chip exports rising 49% year-on-year. In June this year, Korea’s memory exports also amounted to USD 8.8 billion, accounting for 65.8% of total semiconductor exports, which reportedly represents the highest proportion in two years since December 2021.

These figures reflect South Korea’s robust performance in the chip sector and the strong demand from the Chinese market for Korean semiconductors and other ICT products.

Meanwhile, due to the U.S.’s strict restrictions on chip manufacturing technology, China is striving for breakthroughs in the HBM field.

The HBM market is currently dominated by South Korea’s SK hynix, Samsung Electronics, and the U.S.’s Micron, all of which are producing the latest standard HBM3 chips.

However, a report from Tom’s Hardware, citing industry sources, has indicated that Chinese companies, including CXMT, have made progress in developing HBM and are in the early stages of production. Huawei is also collaborating with other Chinese companies, with plans to produce HBM2 chips by 2026.

Read more

• [News] ChangXin Memory Technologies in China Has Reportedly Begun Mass Production of HBM2
• [News] Progress Made in Chinese Consortium’s Development of HBM, Reportedly Targeting HBM2 Production by 2026

(Photo credit: Samsung)