Though the U.S. keeps tightening the export controls on the semiconductor sector, major chip equipment makers seem to become increasingly dependent on the Chinese market. According to a report by Nikkei, citing financial data such as Applied Materials and Lam Research, China’s share of sales have exceeded the threshold of 40%.

According to the latest forecast by SEMI, the global chip equipment sales are expected to grow by 3.4% to USD 109 billion in 2024, with China anticipated to reach a record-high USD 35 billion, accounting for over 30% of the global market.

The strong demand of China is also reflected in the sales of major U.S. chip equipment makers. Citing the latest financial data, Nikkei notes that from February to April, China accounted for 43% of the total sales of Applied Materials, a 22 percentage point increase YoY.

Similarly, from January to March, China accounted for 42% of the total sales of KLA Corporation, a 20 percentage point increase YoY.

The development appears to contradict Washington’s export control plans targeting China. In 2022, the US government restricted the export of advanced semiconductor production equipment to curb Beijing’s progress in this field. However, the manufacturing equipment for traditional chips above 28nm is not subject to these controls.

Citing sources familiar with the matter, Nikkei states that if it was not because of the regulation, the proportion of their business in China would be even higher, with sales growth in China occurring only in the non-advanced equipment sector.

The report also notes that though Washington’s policy of building a local ship supply chain does seem to benefit U.S. equipment manufacturers, they still find it difficult to reduce the reliance on China. In 2023, the U.S. accounted for 15% of Applied Materials’ total revenue, up 6 percentage points from 2021.

In order to confront the semiconductor sanctions from the U.S., China has been doubling down on the efforts by setting up its largest-ever semiconductor state investment fund. Earlier in May, it established the third phase of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund, with investment totaling USD 47.5 billion.

The aim for China’s Big Fund is to leverage fiscal funds to attract private capital, focusing on key segments of the integrated circuit industry chain, including chip design, manufacturing, packaging and testing.

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(Photo credit: Applied Materials)

On July 1st, according to a report from Reuters, the South Korea’s Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy has announced that exports had grown for the ninth consecutive month in June. The sustained and even increasing demand for chips overseas led to a record high in chip export value for June. This export growth also propelled South Korea’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) to its highest level in over two years.

In June, South Korea’s exports grew by 5.1% year-on-year to USD 57 billion, while imports decreased by 7.5% to USD 49 billion. This resulted in a trade surplus of USD 8 billion, surpassing market expectations of USD 5.24 billion and marking the largest surplus since September 2020, as well as a 13 consecutive month of surplus.

Reportedly, chips are the most significant driver of export growth, with a 50.9% year-on-year growth in June to USD 13.4 billion, marking eight consecutive months of year-on-year growth.

The Trade Ministry believes that the robust demand for high-performance memory chips, such as DRAM for AI servers, has driven the recovery in exports.

As per another report from The Korea Times, South Korea’s exports of IT products such as displays, computers, and wireless communication devices have been growing consecutively for four months. In June, these three categories saw year-on-year export increases of 26.1%, 58.8%, and 3.9%, respectively.

In terms of export markets, South Korea’s exports to the United States in June rose by 14.7% year-on-year to USD 11 billion, reaching a new high for the same month in historical records. This marks continuous monthly export highs to the U.S. since August last year. Meanwhile, exports to mainland China increased by 1.8% year-on-year to USD 10.7 billion, marking four consecutive months of growth.

For the first half of the year, South Korea’s total exports amounted to USD 334.8 billion, a 9.1% increase from the same period last year. Imports, on the other hand, decreased by 6.5% year-on-year to USD 311.7 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of USD 23.1 billion, the highest for the same period since 2018.

(Photo credit: Samsung)

On February 15^th, U.S. chip equipment giant Applied Materials released financial results that surpassed expectations, accompanied by an optimistic revenue forecast for the current quarter.

In the previous quarter (Q1 of the fiscal year), Applied Materials recorded a revenue decline of less than 1%, totaling USD 6.71 billion, surpassing the market anticipated USD 6.48 billion. Net profit amounted to USD 2.02 billion or USD 2.41 per share, exceeding the USD 1.72 billion or USD 2.02 per share reported in the same period last year. On an adjusted basis, earnings per share stood at USD 2.13, compared to USD 2.03 in the corresponding period last year, surpassing the previous market expectation of USD 1.90 per share.

Applied Materials forecasts sales for the current quarter (Q2) to range between USD 6.1 billion and USD 6.9 billion, with the midpoint of USD 6.5 billion exceeding market consensus projection of USD 6.34 billion.

Excluding certain items, earnings per share for the quarter ending in April are expected to be between USD 1.79 and USD 2.15. The market anticipated earnings per share of USD 1.80, is at the lower end of this range.

This optimistic outlook suggests a faster-than-expected rebound in the chip industry. As Applied Materials provides equipment to major semiconductor manufacturers, including Samsung Electronics, TSMC, and Intel, its financial forecasts serve as a crucial indicator of future demand in the semiconductor industry’s supply chain.

China emerged as a notable highlight, with sales more than doubling to USD 3 billion, comprising 45% of the company’s overall revenue. CEO Gary Dickerson attributed this surge to a rush to enhance capacity for IoT appliances, communications, the automotive industry, as well as power and sensors. In the telephone interview, Dickerson mentioned this sector as ICAPS.

Although the growth rate in this sector may not be sustained at its current level, the requirement for more chips per device will continue to propel the market forward, indicating that the current expansion is not a bubble.

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(Photo credit: Applied Materials)

Bloomberg reported in early December 2023 that the Chinese government has been directly investing to assist Huawei in building its chip supply chain since 2019, indicating that the ongoing uncertainties in the U.S.-China trade war, the pursuit of semiconductor industry self-sufficiency is expected to be a long-term development direction for China.

TrendForce’s insight:

1. Chinese Government Establishes Investment Fund for Huawei, Creating Exclusive Supply Chain

On May 15, 2019, when the United States announced the inclusion of Huawei and its 70 subsidiaries in the trade blacklist, the Chinese government swiftly established a fund named “Shenzhen Major Industry Investment Group” in Shenzhen, where Huawei’s headquarter is located.

This fund, directly funded by the local government, aimed primarily at creating a large supply chain for Huawei, consisting of optical factories, chip equipment developers, and chemical manufacturers.

One chip manufacturer, SiCarrier, maintained close ties with Huawei. Besides talent exchanges, the company also transferred over a dozen patented technologies to Huawei.

2. Escalating U.S.-China Trade War Drives Long-Term Semiconductor Self-Reliance in China

Recently, the Nikkei news, in collaboration with the research company Fomalhaut Techno Solutions, conducted a renewed disassembly of Huawei’s Mate 60 Pro smartphone. The findings indicate that, based on component costs, approximately 47% of the components are manufactured in China.

This contradicts the earlier claim by Chinese media of a 90% domestic production rate. Nevertheless, the Mate 60 Pro shows a noteworthy 18% increase in domestic production compared to the Mate 40 Pro in 2020.

Additionally, during the component analysis, it was reaffirmed that the self-developed 5G processor, Kirin 9000S, featured in Huawei’s Mate 60 Pro smartphone, has a circuit width of 7nm. This demonstrates China’s semiconductor technological prowess despite restrictions imposed by the U.S. ban.

However, when the semiconductor industry value chain is divided regionally, it can be observed that in the uppermost stream of the supply chain, including electronic design automation software and licensed intellectual property used in chip design, this domain is primarily concentrated in the hands of U.S. firms.

Currently, China’s overall share in the global semiconductor value chain remains relatively low and is more concentrated in downstream packaging and manufacturing. If China aims to establish a fully “self-sufficient” semiconductor supply chain, it is estimated that there is still a long way to go.

However, what is certain is that in the ongoing U.S.-China trade war, the pursuit of semiconductor industry autonomy will be a long-term development direction for China.

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With China intensifying export controls, Japanese companies relying on crucial battery and semiconductor materials manufactured in China are contemplating alternative solutions. They are actively seeking materials sources to achieve supply diversification.

TrendForce’s insight:

1. Alternative Solution Cannot be Translated into Immediate Success

While countries like Japan and South Korea have swiftly initiated strategies to find alternative solutions, the majority are still in the evaluation, research, or testing stages, unable to provide immediate assistance.

Even if alternative graphite production sources outside of China, such as in North America or Australia, are identified, it is likely to increase manufacturing costs, thereby impacting the selling price or profit performance of electric vehicles.

2. Back to Negotiation with Chinese Manufacturers

The post-export control scenario may accentuate the cost advantage of Chinese battery manufacturers, influencing the effectiveness of various protective measures taken by Europe and the United States to counter Chinese electric vehicles.

Consequently, countries may ultimately realize that returning to the negotiation table with China is more practical than going through a prolonged process, aligning with China’s primary objective.

3. Material Edge Won’t Last Forever

The continuous export restrictions on critical materials by China may encourage countries to persist in developing alternative solutions. For instance, OEMs like Tesla, GM, and Stellantis are actively investing in research on rare-earth-free motors to reduce dependency on Chinese rare earths.

While currently constrained by battery material technology, graphite remains the highest-value anode material. Yet, numerous companies are also exploring anodes with higher energy density, such as silicon oxide (SiO) and lithium metal (Li Metal).

Therefore, China must recognize that material advantages may not be permanent, and the core lies in the ability for technological iteration.

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(Photo credit: Pixabay)