According to the World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2023 released by the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Tuesday, the significant rise of clean energy technologies, including solar, wind, electric vehicles, and heat pumps, is reshaping the way factories, vehicles, household appliances, and heating systems are powered.

As per the latest WEO report, in 2020, only 1 out of every 25 cars sold was an electric vehicle; three years later, the ratio increased to 1 out of every 5 cars. By 2030, the number of electric vehicles on the road globally is set to nearly increase tenfold. Solar photovoltaic power generation is projected to exceed the entire electricity generation capacity of the United States. The share of renewable energy in the global power structure is expected to rise from its current level of around 30% to nearly 50%. Global sales of heat pumps and other electric heating systems will surpass those of fossil fuel boilers. Investment in new offshore wind projects will be three times that of new coal and gas-fired power plants.

IEA notes that this growth in green energy is based solely on the current policy plans of governments worldwide. If nations can fulfill their national energy and climate commitments in a timely and comprehensive manner, the progress of clean energy will be even more rapid. However, stronger and more forceful measures will need to be taken globally to have a chance of achieving the goal of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

WEO scenarios based on current policy settings reveal that the increasing momentum behind clean energy technologies, coupled with global structural economic shifts, is significantly impacting fossil fuels. There is a chance that global demand for coal, oil, and natural gas will peak in 2030.

In this scenario, the share of fossil fuels in the global energy supply may drop from around 80% in recent decades to 73% by 2030, and global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are expected to peak in 2025.

Fatih Birol, the Executive Director of the IEA, emphasizes that the transition to clean energy is an unstoppable global phenomenon and the sooner, the better, for everyone.

(Image credit: Tesla)

Global sales of NEV (new energy vehicles, which include both BEV and PHEV) skyrocketed in the final two months of 2020, with various models setting historical sales records, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. TrendForce estimates total NEV sales for 2020 at 2.9 million units, a 43% increase YoY, and further expects yearly sales to reach 3.9 million units in 2021. However, as the current shortage of automotive chips has had a considerable impact on the auto industry, some uncertainties still exist in the forecast of EV sales.

With regards to the BEV market, Tesla primarily focused on marketing the Model 3 as its key model for 2020. The automaker took leadership position with a 24.5% market share last year, while the Model Y is expected to be key to securing its continued leadership in 2021 primarily because China has issued a sales permit allowing the Model Y to be exempt from purchase tax. Furthermore, Tesla was able to catch its competitors off guard by discounting Model Y prices by 30% on the first day of 2021. Volkswagen took second place in the rankings due to not only the excellent market reception of the e-Golf, but also the remarkable sales figures set by the ID.3 in 2H20, which helped Volkswagen stabilize its market share. Incidentally, as the ID.4 is set to hit the market later on, it is expected to make meaningful contributions to Volkswagen’s overall EV sales in 2021 instead of 2020.

BYD derives its competitive advantage from having a comprehensive model lineup. The Chinese company comfortably took third place with a 6.4% market share. Conversely, fourth-ranked Wuling Hongguang became the dark horse of 2020 by fielding a single EV model, the Hongguang Mini. Not only was the Hongguang Mini attractively priced, but the Chinese government also made a heavy push for NEV sales in China’s rural areas. Both of these factors allowed the Hongguang Mini to become one of the global top sellers within six months of its release. Hot on the heels of Wuling Hongguang is Renault, which took fifth place in the ranking. Renault was able to score a 5.6% market share thanks to its longstanding best seller ZOE. Although other models, including the Nissan Leaf and Hyundai Kona, also posted remarkable sales performances last year, their respective automakers did not place on the top five list because these automakers each had total EV sales that fell short of the five automakers on the list.

On the other hand, the top PHEV manufacturers were neck and neck in terms of ranking by market share. BMW and Mercedes-Benz each possessed a 13% market share, followed by Volvo with 12%. Fourth-ranked Volkswagen and fifth-ranked Audi registered a 10% market share and 6% market share, respectively.

TrendForce indicates that China and Europe are perfect examples of EV markets propelled by government policies. For instance, European automakers have adopted a proactive position to expand their EV lineups as a result of the stringent emissions standards set by the EU, and these automakers have subsequently been aiming to achieve zero carbon emissions or increase the share of EVs in their total vehicle sales. Apart from China and Europe, the US is yet another market where policies may have a positive effect on EV sales. After winning the 2020 presidential election, Biden is now set to launch his clean energy proposal, which includes replacing the US government’s existing fleet with EVs, removing the previously set ceiling on federal tax credits for EV purchases, and offering consumer tax incentives to replacing their conventional fossil fuel vehicles with EVs, among other actions. If these proposed actions were eventually implemented, TrendForce believes they would be able to drive up EV sales in the US.