The US initial claims have declined by nearly 40,000 from their July peak, but continued claims for unemployment benefits have reached a three-year high, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on November 21. Does this indicate that the labor market is beginning to deteriorate?

U.S. initial claims for unemployment benefits fell to 213,000 last week, down 6,000 from the revised figure of 219,000 in the previous week, marking the lowest level since April 2024. The U.S. four-week moving average also decreased to 217,750, a reduction of 3,750 from the prior period’s revised 221,500, and the lowest level since May 2024.

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In contrast, U.S. continued claims for unemployment benefits increased to 1,897,000, rising by 28,000 from the revised 1,869,000 the previous week, setting a new three-year high. This uptick was largely driven by October’s hurricanes and the Boeing strike.

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Non-farm payroll revealed that Washington, affected by the Boeing strike, and Florida, impacted by hurricanes, saw their monthly employment growth hit the lowest levels since the pandemic. However, the Boeing strike concluded in early November, suggesting these short-term disruptions may gradually fade.

(Florida & Washington’s Nonfarm Payrolls, Source: BLS, TrendForce)

Looking ahead, as these temporary factors subside, initial jobless claims are expected to stabilize at current levels, while U.S. non-farm payroll for November are expected to show a recovery.