The demand for TSMC’s CoWoS advanced packaging is skyrocketing. Following NVIDIA’s expansion confirmation in October, there are reports in the industry that major clients like Apple, AMD, Broadcom, Marvell, and others are also placing additional orders with TSMC.

To meet the demands of these five major clients, TSMC is fast-tracking the expansion of CoWoS advanced packaging capacity. Next year, the monthly capacity will increase by about 20% more than the original doubling target, reaching 35,000 wafers, reported by UDN News.

TSMC has not commented on the capacity deployment for CoWoS advanced packaging. Industry sources believe that the substantial orders from TSMC’s major clients indicate a widespread growth in AI applications, driving the demand for chips such as GPU and AI accelerators.

In response to the continuous increase in AI demand, TSMC had previously announced the doubling of CoWoS advanced packaging capacity expansion for next year but did not disclose the monthly production capacity. Industry reports suggest that TSMC’s CoWoS advanced packaging capacity next year will not only double but will also increase by an additional 20% from the original target, resulting in a total monthly capacity of 35,000 wafers.

NVIDIA currently stands as the main large customer for TSMC’s CoWoS advanced packaging, securing almost 60% of TSMC’s related capacity, which is used in its AI chips such as H100 and A100. Additionally, AMD’s latest AI chip products are in the mass production stage, and the upcoming MI300 chip, expected to launch next year, will adopt both SoIC and CoWoS advanced packaging.

At the same time, Xilinx, a subsidiary of AMD, has been a significant customer for TSMC’s CoWoS advanced packaging. With the continuous growth in AI demand, not only Xilinx but also Broadcom has started increasing orders for TSMC’s CoWoS advanced packaging capacity.

(Image: TSMC)

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ASE Holdings conducted an earning conference on October 26th to unveil its Q3 financial results and offer insights into future business prospects. All eyes are on ASE’s progress in CoWoS advanced packaging. Joseph Tung, the Chief Financial Officer (CFO) of ASE, expressed confidence in AI and ongoing investments in advanced packaging, expecting a twofold increase in revenue share for advanced packaging in the coming year.

The market’s attention is keenly focused on wafer bank (a storage system used in semiconductor manufacturing to keep semiconductor wafers on hand for production, helping to streamline the manufacturing process) levels and inventory management. Tung mentioned that wafer bank levels are consistently declining and will further reduce Q4. With consumer electronics and computer clients gearing up to launch new products, inventory levels are expected to be maintained at a certain level. Overall, inventory reduction is nearing completion.

Tung emphasized that the real challenge lies not in inventory reduction but in the timing of the recovery in consumer demands and the impact of inflation. ASE remains cautious in its outlook for the upcoming year.

As for AI-related developments, Tung is optimistic about the expansion of CoWoS advanced packaging capacity through TSMC. ASE is also set to boost its production capacity for advanced packaging to cater to urgent customer demands. Next year, it is expected that revenue in advanced packaging will double. Tung emphasized that the AI era has already arrived and expects AI to extend to more terminal devices over the next few years. ASE has also invested in the development of Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) technology, ready to meet customer demands when the market is prepared.

To seize opportunities in advanced packaging, ASE previously introduced an Integrated Design Ecosystem (IDE) to optimize collaborative design tools through a platform, systematically enhancing advanced packaging architecture. This initiative has the potential to reduce design cycles by approximately 50%.

Tung pointed out that there are signs of a recovery in PC-related chip testing and packaging, and this year’s performance in automotive chip testing and packaging is expected to outperform other segments.

Looking ahead to future market conditions, Tung believes that the global semiconductor industry’s environment in the coming year will be more favorable than the current year.

(Image: ASE)

On October 11th, Amkor announced the official opening of its factory located in the Yen Phong 2C Industrial Park in Bac Ninh Province, Vietnam. The new facility, occupying 57 acres, is set to become Amkor’s largest, with an investment of approximately $1.6 billion by 2035. The factory primarily focuses on providing advanced system-level packaging and testing solutions to meet the semiconductor industry’s demand for advanced packaging. However, the company has not disclosed the factory’s current production and capacity.

Multiple Players Pursue CoWoS

The ongoing AI trend continues to drive demand for Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate (CoWoS) technology, benefiting TSMC, which holds a significant share of CoWoS production orders. However, companies like ASE Group, Amkor, and UMC are also positioning themselves in the CoWoS packaging manufacturing space. Industry experts believe that given the current high demand for TSMC’s CoWoS production, part of this demand may potentially shift to Amkor’s factories.

Furthermore, the popular Nvidia AI chips, which are in high demand globally, utilize 2.5D packaging technology, a responsibility currently held by TSMC. Recently, Nvidia hinted at the mass production of new AI chips like the GH200 and general server chip L40S, with reports suggesting that L40S will not require 2.5D packaging. Instead, it will be shared among several backend packaging companies, including ASE, Amkor, and SPIL.

Industry source has noted the strong demand for CoWoS in the AI sector, and with TSMC’s CoWoS production capacity already unable to meet demand for several quarters, some demand may potentially shift to Amkor or Samaung’s facilities.

Amkor has announced plans to expand its advanced packaging CoWoS-like capacity. According to industry insiders, Amkor’s monthly production capacity for 2.5D advanced packaging is expected to reach approximately 3,000 wafers in early 2023, with estimates of reaching 5,000 wafers by the end of 2023 and aiming for a significant increase to 7,000 units by the end of 2024.

Additionally, ASE Group has announced its presence in advanced CoWoS-related packaging. With their fan-out chip-on-substrate (FOCoS-Bridge) packaging technology, ASE has been chosen by major chip design house to handle their backend packaging after CoW.

In mid-September, South Korean media reported that Samsung is set to introduce its FO-PLP 2.5D advanced packaging technology to catch up with TSMC in the field of advanced packaging for AI chips. Samsung’s Advanced Packaging (AVP) team began developing FO-PLP advanced packaging for 2.5D chip packaging, allowing the integration of System-on-Chip (SoC) and High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) into an interposer to create a complete chip.

It’s worth mentioning that Samsung’s FO-PLP 2.5D packaging is rectangular, while TSMC’s CoWoS 2.5D uses a circular substrate. Samsung’s FO-PLP 2.5D packaging avoids edge substrate losses and boasts higher production efficiency. However, due to the need to transplant chips from wafers onto rectangular substrates, the process is more complex.

CoWoS Demand Continues

CoWoS technology is a form of 2.5D and 3D packaging, where chips are stacked and then packaged onto a substrate, resulting in a 2.5D or 3D structure. This technology reduces chip space, while also decreasing power consumption and costs. CoWoS packaging is applied in high-performance computing, artificial intelligence, data centers, 5G, the Internet of Things, automotive electronics, and other fields.

TrendForce research indicates a growing demand for advanced packaging technologies for AI and HPC chips. Currently, TSMC’s CoWoS is the primary choice for AI server chip production. CoWoS packaging mainly consists of CoW (Chip on Wafer), integrating various logic ICs (such as CPUs, GPUs, ASICs, etc.) and HBM memory, while oS (On Substrate) integrates CoW elements using Solder bump interconnects and packages them on a substrate. These CoWoS packages become the primary computing units on server motherboards, together with other components like networks, storage, power supply units (PSUs), and other I/O units, forming complete AI server systems.

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(Photo credit: Amkor)

As AI demand continues to surge, TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) has initiated an extensive expansion plan for its CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) production. Within the industry, reports suggest that TSMC, a leading semiconductor foundry, placed a significant wave of orders with Taiwanese equipment manufacturers last week, creating a notable impact.

Additionally, outsourced semiconductor assembly and testing (OSAT) giants, which were originally inquiring about orders, have also significantly increased their orders for advanced packaging. This wave of orders is estimated to be fulfilled between March and April of the upcoming year.

The growth in demand for advanced semiconductor processes due to AI applications necessitates advanced packaging technologies to keep pace. With packaging technologies advancing from 2D and 2.5D to the more advanced 3D IC (Integrated Circuit) configurations, the number of IC stacking layers is increasing, leading to a greater demand for advanced packaging equipment. Considering the current emphasis on CoWoS technology, the industry estimates that production capacity will reach 12,000 to 14,000 wafers in 2023 and double to over 30,000 wafers in 2024.

According to a report by Taiwan’s Money DJ, information from equipment industry sources reveals that TSMC recommenced orders for CoWoS equipment in April 2023, with a second wave of orders in June. Subsequently, sporadic additional orders were placed, and last week witnessed a new significant wave of orders, surprising many.

An anonymous executive from a Taiwanese equipment company expressed that they initially believed TSMC’s orders for CoWoS equipment had concluded, making the recent wave of orders even more unexpected. Furthermore, the increase in orders for advanced packaging equipment by semiconductor testing and packaging facilities is also seen as encouraging.

Market experts believe that semiconductor testing and packaging facilities and semiconductor foundries have different positions and advantages in the advanced packaging market. Their cooperative relationships outweigh their competition. Major OSAT players like ASE, Amkor, and JCET have long possessed advanced packaging technology and are positioned to become an alternative choice for major foundries due to their technical upgrades and competitive pricing. In other words, top-tier orders from customers will be firmly in TSMC’s grasp, while other opportunities will likely be pursued by SATS companies.

Regarding the supply of CoWoS equipment, suppliers like Scientech have received over 30 orders for wet etching processing equipment, while Grand Process Technology and others have shipped nearly 20 units. Meanwhile, G2C+ Alliance members such as GMM and C Sun have reportedly received over 40 orders from the TSMC’s Longtan factory.

(Photo credit: TSMC)

According to Taiwan’s Money DJ, the AI wave is showing no signs of slowing down. Led by NVIDIA, major players including AMD, Intel, and international chip giants are aggressively entering the AI arena, driving increasing demand for advanced packaging and advanced processes. Industry reports suggest that TSMC is reallocating several thousand personnel from its Hsinchu 12B plant to support its Longtan and Tainan 18B facilities in a bid to address the current urgent demands.

TSMC typically follows a process of initial research and development (R&D) stages for advancing its processes before handing them over to the mini-line teams and then proceeding to full-scale production. As a result, the 2nm process is slated for trial production in the second quarter of 2024, leaving a gap of approximately six months. It is rumored that TSMC is mobilizing staff from its Hsinchu 12B plant to provide support for the CoWoS-focused Longtan facility and the Tainan 18B plant, which is responsible for mass-producing the 3nm process, to address the immediate needs.

Equipment suppliers estimate that TSMC’s CoWoS production capacity is set to reach 12,000 to 14,000 wafers per month by the end of this year, with a projected doubling of production by 2024. By the end of that year, it is expected to reach at least 26,000 wafers per month, potentially even surpassing 30,000 wafers. Meanwhile, for the 3nm family, in addition to Apple and MediaTek, AMD, NVIDIA, Qualcomm, and even Intel are confirmed to adopt the N3 family of processes.

(Photo credit: TSMC)