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[News] OPEC Revises Down Global Oil Demand for This Year and Next Again
Global oil demand for this year and next has been revised downward for the fourth time by OPEC, according to its report released on November 12.
The report states that the OECD has reduced its 2024 global oil demand growth forecast by 107 thousand barrels per day (tb/d) to 1.8 million barrels per day (mb/d), reflecting weaker-than-expected consumption data from China, India, and Africa. The 2025 demand growth forecast was similarly lowered by 103 tb/d to 1.5 mb/d.
(Source: OPEC)
Amid continued downward revisions by the three major oil organizations for this year and next, oil prices have been declining over the past few months. Furthermore, if a Trump administration reinforces support for traditional energy sources, it could sustain high U.S. oil supply levels, putting further downward pressure on medium-to-long-term oil prices.
(Source: EIA)
In response to the low-price environment, OPEC member countries have once again postponed plans to restore production increases to December, marking the second delay this year. As of now, WTI crude stands at $68.04 per barrel, while Brent crude is at $71.83 per barrel.
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[News] OPEC Delays Production Increase by One Month, Triggering Oil Price Rebound
OPEC+ announced on November 3 an extension of its voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day for an additional month, resulting in a short-term rebound in oil prices.
Recently, due to a global demand slowdown, the three major energy agencies have all downgraded their forecasts for global oil demand in 2025, with particularly significant declines anticipated in China and OECD countries. Additionally, recent Israeli attacks on Iran did not impact OPEC’s oil facilities, easing market concerns over Middle Eastern geopolitical risks, which has contributed to a sustained decline in oil prices over recent months.
Amid the continued weakness in oil prices, OPEC had previously extended its production cut measures from June to September and then further to November and December. Although this latest extension of production cuts reduces supply in the short term and provides temporary support to oil prices, the potential for future production increases could exert greater downward pressure on a market where demand is expected to remain relatively weak in the medium to long term.
As of November 4, WTI crude oil futures prices rose by 3.49% to $71.46 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures prices increased by 2.71% to $75.08 per barrel.
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[News] Crude Oil Prices See Largest Drop in Over Two Years as Middle East Political Risks Ease
Crude oil prices have sharply declined, marking the largest single-day drop in nearly two years as Israel’s recent strikes on Iran avoided impacting any oil extraction facilities, thereby reducing the political risk premium associated with the Middle East.
Last Saturday, Israel launched airstrikes on Iranian military targets in retaliation for nearly 200 missiles fired by Iran three weeks ago. However, at the request of U.S. President Joe Biden, Saturday’s strikes spared any OPEC+ member oil extraction facilities from damage.
According to an early October report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the recent decline in oil prices led to a downward revision in EIA’s 2025 daily oil supply growth forecast to about 2 million barrels per day (previously 2.4 million). Nevertheless, with OPEC+ extending production increases through late 2024 and non-OPEC nations also increasing output into 2025, global daily oil supply for 2024 and 2025 is still expected to reach 102.5 million and 104.5 million barrels, respectively.
On the demand side, with slower Chinese oil imports and a global manufacturing downturn, the EIA adjusted down its demand forecasts for both China and OECD countries. Global daily oil demand is now expected to reach 103.1 million barrels in 2024 and 104.3 million barrels in 2025.
Additionally, projected net daily demand growth has been revised downward for Q1 2024 and Q2 2025, to approximately 600,000 and 500,000 barrels, respectively, down from earlier forecasts of 1.2 million and 900,000 barrels.
Overall, with Middle Eastern political risk premium decreasing, crude oil prices are now trending towards a fundamentally weaker outlook for the mid-to-long term. As of October 28, WTI crude futures dropped to $67.38 per barrel, while Brent crude also fell to $71.42 per barrel.
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