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As South Korean memory giants Samsung and SK hynix announced their third quarter financial reports, posting a 112% and 94% year-over-year revenue growth, respectively, the threat from increasing output of Chinese rivals such as CXMT, which drives prices down, has reportedly prompted them to significantly cut back on legacy memory chip production, according to the report by the Korea Economic Daily.
According to the report, China’s ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) has been ramping up the production of older chips like DDR4 and LPDDR4X, resulting in severe price pressure in legacy products.
CXMT has expanded its monthly DRAM production capacity from 40,000 wafer sheets in 2020 to 160,000 sheets. This capacity is expected to reach 200,000 sheets by year-end and 300,000 by the close of 2025, the report said.
SK hynix to Reduce DDR4 Production to 20% of Total DRAM Output
Industry sources cited by the report noted that in a recent investor relations session with Goldman Sachs, SK hynix suggested that it plans to reduce DDR4 DRAM production to 20% of its total DRAM output by the end of the year, down from 30% in September and 40% in June.
On the other hand, according to the report, in an earnings call with analysts on last week, Kim Jae-joon, executive vice president of Samsung’s device solutions (DS) division, confirmed plans to reduce production of legacy DRAM and NAND flash chips, aligning with industry expectations that chipmakers are scaling back on conventional memory output.
HBM and eSSD Emerge as the New Focus
Instead, both memory giants highlighted in their earnings call that they would shift their focus to highly profitable premium products like HBM and enterprise solid-drivers (eSSDs).
These adjustments by Samsung and SK hynix align with strong server DRAM demand driven by major tech firms like Google and China’s Baidu investing in server infrastructure, while PC DRAM sales have remained stagnant, according to the Korea Economic Daily.
According to SK hynix, as generative AI is developing into a multi-modal1 form and global big tech companies continue to invest to develop artificial general intelligence (AGI), the demand of memory for AI servers such as HBM and eSSD has grown noticeably this year. SK hynix predicts that this trend will continue next year.
According to the Korea Economic Daily, anticipating a prolonged global over supply, SK is accelerating the upgrade of its older DRAM lines in Wuxi, China, to advanced lines for producing fourth-generation 10-nanometer 1a DRAM.
While maintaining steady NAND flash production, in the meantime, SK is increasing the operation rate at its eSSD facility in Dalian, China, to nearly full capacity, according to sources cited by the report.
On the other hand, Samsung noted that in 2025, the company plans to expand the sales of HBM3E and the portion of high-end products such as DDR5 modules with 128GB density or higher for servers and LPDDR5X for mobile, PC, servers, and so on.
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(Photo credit: SK hynix)
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According to a report from Korean media ZDNet Korea, Chinese memory manufacturers like CXMT (Changxin Memory Technologies) are aggressively expanding production, which could negatively affect profitability in the traditional DRAM market. Both Samsung and SK hynix are said to be closely monitoring these developments.
Established in 2016, CXMT has become China’s largest DRAM producer with government backing, focusing on traditional DRAM and preparing to enter the HBM market.
Reportedly, CXMT has rapidly increased its DRAM production capacity, from 70,000 wafers per month in 2022 to 120,000 in 2023, and is projected to reach 200,000 wafers this year.
CXMT’s main products include 17nm and 18nm DDR4 and LPDDR4, with its latest offerings being 12nm DDR5 and LPDDR5X, which the company is also developing. Its aggressive DRAM expansion could negatively impact sales and profits for Korean memory manufacturers.
According to TrendForce’s data, the spot price of 16Gb DDR4 increased from $3 in the second half of 2023 to $3.50 in the first half of this year, before falling back to $3.30 in the second half of 2024.
For DDR5, prices have increased from $4.20 in October 2023 to over $4.50 in the first half of this year, approaching $5 in the second half.
By the end of August, the price premium of DDR5 over DDR4 had surged to 53.9%, up significantly from 36.9% six months earlier.
Per a recent report from Nomura Securities cited by ZDNet Korea, the rapid expansion of Chinese companies is expected to negatively impact the memory industry’s profitability, necessitating preparations for potential disruptions. CXMT’s production now accounts for about 5% of the market, potentially influencing prices.
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(Photo credit: CXMT)
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According to a report from Tom’s Hardware citing industry sources, it’s indicated that Chinese memory giant ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) has started mass production of HBM2. If confirmed, this is approximately two years ahead of the expected timeline, although the yield rate for HBM2 is still uncertain.
Earlier, Nikkei once reported that CXMT had begun procuring equipment necessary for HBM production, estimating it would take one to two years to achieve mass production. Currently, CXMT has ordered equipment from suppliers in the U.S. and Japan, with American companies Applied Materials and Lam Research having received export licenses.
Reportedly, HBM2 has a per-pin data transfer rate of approximately 2 GT/s to 3.2 GT/s. Producing HBM2 does not require the latest lithography techniques but does demand enough manufacturing capacity.
The process involves using through-silicon vias (TSV) to vertically connect memory components, which is rather complex. However, packaging the HBM KGSD (known good stack die) modules is still less intricate than manufacturing traditional DRAM devices using a 10nm process.
CXMT’s DRAM technology is said to be lagging behind that of Micron, Samsung, and SK hynix. These three companies have already started mass production of HBM3 and HBM3e and are preparing to advance to HBM4 in the coming years.
There also are reports indicating that Huawei, the Chinese tech giant subject to US sanctions, looks to collaborate with other local companies to produce HBM2 by 2026. Per a previous report from The Information, a group led by Huawei aimed at producing HBM includes Fujian Jinhua Integrated Circuit.
Moreover, since Huawei’s Ascend 910 series processors use HBM2, it has made HBM2 a crucial technology for advanced AI and HPC processors in China. Therefore, local manufacturing of HBM2 is a significant milestone for the country.
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(Photo credit: CXMT)
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Sources have revealed that major Chinese chip manufacturers such as SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation) and CXMT (ChangXin Memory Technologies) are striving to localize the supply of critical chip materials and chemicals. This move is expected to counteract U.S. export controls and could potentially exclude global suppliers from the Chinese market.
According to a report from Nikkei News, since last year, SMIC has accelerated its efforts to require customers to help monitor, verify, and adopt local suppliers. This adoption covers a range of materials used in the chip manufacturing process, including wafers, chemicals, gasses, and other essential materials. Since being added to the U.S. entity list at the end of 2020, SMIC has been continuously exploring local supply alternatives.
Reportedly, CXMT is also actively launching a similar initiative to investigate local suppliers to replace foreign sources.
These actions indicate that China’s latest localization efforts extend beyond merely increasing the use of local chip manufacturing equipment. They now encompass hundreds of chemicals, materials, and gasses, which could potentially push foreign suppliers out of the local market.
Another source cited in a report from Nikkei news mentioned that chip manufacturers are maintaining ties with global suppliers of chip chemicals to avoid sudden impacts on production quality. However, strong incentives are stimulating the development of Chinese material suppliers. For example, National Silicon Industry Group is growing into a competitor against industry leaders like Shin-Etsu Chemical, Sumco, and GlobalWafers.
Chinese chip manufacturers are also expanding their use of local sputter targets, polishing pads, slurry, and ultra-high purity chemicals and gasses. These critical chip manufacturing materials markets have traditionally been dominated by foreign suppliers such as 3M, DuPont, and Sumitomo Chemical.
Sources cited in Nikkei’s report further indicate that these actions initially apply to less advanced chip manufacturing processes, such as 55nm and 40nm, but will eventually extend to processes below 28nm.
However, as per another report from Economic Daily News, some Taiwanese companies have indicated that the impact is limited. The areas that Chinese manufacturers can capture are mostly lower-end products, while mid-to-high-end products still heavily rely on foreign suppliers for the time being.
Taiwanese companies cited by Economic Daily News point out that China has been promoting the localization of its semiconductor supply chain for many years. While policy does provide some momentum, the key issues remain quality and yield rates. Customers are said to be reluctant to frequently adopt new suppliers, making it difficult to achieve comprehensive replacement.
Industry sources cited in the same report further note that China’s localization efforts in semiconductors are primarily focused on mature processes, with more noticeable progress in the mid-to-low-end sectors. For advanced materials like photoresists and polishing slurry, products from Japan and Western countries still hold a competitive advantage in terms of yield.
Additionally, industry sources mention that China is advancing its localization efforts more rapidly in the area of small-sized silicon wafers, which are mainly used for testing rather than production. However, for 8-inch and 12-inch silicon wafers, the market is still predominantly controlled by major foreign manufacturers.
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(Photo credit: SMIC)
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According to sources and documents cited in a report from Reuters, two major Chinese chip manufacturers are in the early stages of producing High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) semiconductors, primarily for AI chipsets. Despite facing export restrictions from the United States, China is currently making progress mainly on older versions of HBM, gradually reducing reliance on other global suppliers.
Sources cited in the same report revealed that China’s largest DRAM chip manufacturer, ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), is collaborating with chip packaging and testing company Tongfu Microelectronics to develop HBM chip samples, which are being showcased to potential customers.
On the other hand, Wuhan Xinxin Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (XMC) is constructing a 12-inch plant with a monthly capacity of 3,000 wafers, which is planned to manufucture HBM chips. Per the corporate registration documents, the plant is expected to commence operations in February this year.
Sources in the report mentioned that CXMT and other Chinese chip companies regularly hold meetings with semiconductor equipment manufacturers from South Korea and Japan to purchase tools for HBM development. Currently, CXMT, Tongfu Microelectronics, and XMC have not responded to these reports.
CXMT and XMC are both private companies that have received funding from local governments in China to drive technological development amid the country’s vigorous efforts to develop its semiconductor industry.
There also are reports indicating that Huawei, the Chinese tech giant subject to US sanctions, looks to collaborate with other local companies to produce HBM2 chips by 2026. According to a report from The Information, a group led by Huawei aimed at producing HBM chips includes Fujian Jinhua Integrated Circuit.
As per market reports cited by Reuters, China’s current focus is on HBM2. While the US has not restricted the export of HBM chips, HBM3 chips are manufactured using US technology, which many Chinese companies, including Huawei, are prohibited from using.
According to the analysis by Trendforce, the research and manufacturing of HBM involve complex processes and technical challenges, including wafer-level packaging, testing technology, design compatibility, and more. CoWoS is currently the mainstream packaging solution for AI processors, and in AI chips utilizing CoWoS technology, HBM integration is also incorporated.
CoWoS and HBM involves processes such as TSV (Through-Silicon Via), bumps, microbumps, and RDL (Redistribution Layer). Among these, TSV accounts for the highest proportion of the 3D packaging cost of HBM, close to 30%.
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(Photo credit: CXMT)