Global HBM leader, South Korea’s SK hynix, announced its financial report for the last quarter on July 25, exceeding market expectations. According to a report from Economic Daily News, the company also announced a full-scale effort to boost production of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) for AI, with this year’s capital expenditure expected to surpass initial projections. Additionally, more capacity will be allocated for HBM production.

Industry sources cited by the report also indicate that for Taiwanese manufacturers, the major global memory companies are expanding their HBM production capacity by converting existing DRAM capacity to HBM. This shift will suppress the supply of DDR4 and DDR5 DRAM, positively impacting market conditions.

Previously, as per sources cited by the Economic Daily News, it’s indicated that global memory leader Samsung plans to allocate about 30% of its existing DRAM capacity to HBM production. Now, with SK hynix reportedly making similar plans, this may benefit Taiwanese DRAM-related companies like Nanya Technology and ADATA in the future.

Reportedly, Nanya Technology is said to believe that the DRAM market has significantly improved due to the production cuts by the three major memory manufacturers—Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron—in the second half of last year, combined with the strong demand for HBM driven by generative AI. This chain reaction is spreading to various types of DRAM, and the company expects to see clear operational improvements soon.

SK hynix announced yesterday that its Q2 revenue increased by 125% year-on-year to KRW 16.4 trillion (USD 11.9 billion), setting a new record. Operating profit reached KRW 5.47 trillion, the highest since Q3 2018, significantly better than the KRW 2.9 trillion loss in the same period last year. The operating margin was 33%, exceeding expectations, mainly due to a more than 250% surge in HBM sales and an overall increase in DRAM and NAND chip prices.

SK hynix plans to begin mass production of the next-generation 12-layer HBM3e chips this quarter, enhancing its competitive edge over rivals Samsung and Micron in the design and supply of advanced memory for NVIDIA’s AI accelerators. HBM3e is expected to account for about half of all HBM chip sales this year. Additionally, capital expenditure for this year is likely to exceed initial expectations.

SK hynix predicts that the overall memory market will continue to grow in the second half of the year, with DRAM and NAND chip supply becoming tighter and demand for AI servers remaining strong.

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(Photo credit: SK hynix)

As the standard DRAM market experiences an unprecedented cycle of supply-demand imbalance, the shortage of DDR3 production capacity has become even more severe.

According to a report from the Economic Daily News, with leading manufacturers like Samsung exiting DDR3 production, while demand for DDR3 from AI and edge computing devices continuing to increase, the storage capacity per single device is rising sharply. This is expected to drive a rebound in DDR3 prices, potentially benefiting related Taiwanese manufacturers such as Winbond, Elite Semiconductor Microelectronics Technology (ESMT), and Etron.

In response to the shift of operational focus to high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and DDR5, the world’s top three memory manufacturers are gradually phasing out the DDR3 market.

Reportedly, Samsung has informed customers that it will cease DDR3 production by the end of the second quarter. SK Hynix had already converted its DDR3 production at its Wuxi plant in China to DDR4 by the end of last year. Meanwhile, Micron has significantly reduced its DDR3 supply to expand its DDR5 and HBM production capacity.

As per industry sources cited in the same report, it’s said that as the reduction in production by major DRAM manufacturers continues to take effect, it has driven standard DRAM prices up from the second half of 2023 to the present, with further increases expected.

Thus, prices for niche memory like DDR3 tend to lag behind standard DRAM by one to two quarters. For Taiwanese manufacturers such as Winbond, ESMT, and Etron, which focus on DDR3, the benefits of DDR3 price increases will gradually become apparent this quarter and next.

The industry sources cited by the same report also point out that DDR3 applications remain quite widespread. For example, WiFi 6 devices predominantly uses DDR3, and the next generation, WiFi 7 devices, will still primarily use DDR3/DDR4. Additionally, edge computing devices would continue to adopt DDR3. With supply significantly decreasing while demand remaining strong, DDR3 prices are expected to continue their upward trend.

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(Photo credit: Samsung)

JEDEC (the Solid State Technology Association) recently confirmed that the long-used SO-DIMM and DIMM memory standards will be replaced by CAMM2 for DDR6 (LPDDR6 included).

According to a report from WeChat account DRAMeXchange, the minimum frequency for DDR6 memory is 8800MHz, which can be increased to 17.6GHz, with a theoretical maximum of up to 21GHz, far surpassing that of DDR4 and DDR5 memory. CAMM2 is a brand new memory standard that also supports DDR6 standard memory, making it suitable for large PC devices like desktop PC. JEDEC expects to complete the preliminary draft of the DDR6 memory standard within this year, with the official version 1.0 expected by 2Q25 at the earliest, and specific products likely coming in 4Q25 or in 2026.

LPDDR6 will adopt a new 24-bit wide channel design, with a maximum memory bandwidth of up to 38.4GB/s, significantly higher than the existing LPDDR5 standard. The maximum rate for LPDDR6 can reach 14.4Gbps and the minimum rate is 10.667Gbps, matching the highest rate of LPDDR5x and far exceeding LPDDR5’s 6.7Gbps.

It is learned that a true CAMM2-standard LPDDR6, with a 32GB specification for example, costs about USD 500, which is five times the price of LPDDR5 (SO-DIMM/DIMM) memory.

Considering market adoption, the industry believes that the new CAMM2 standard adopted by DDR6 requires large-scale replacement of existing production equipment, which will bring about a new cost structure. Meanwhile, the evolution of new standards in the existing market will face high cost issue, which will restrict the large-scale adoption of DDR6 or LPDDR6.

Currently, upstream manufacturers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron already have some memory products supporting the CAMM2 standard. Among downstream brand manufacturers, Lenovo and Dell also follow up and Dell reportedly has used CAMM2 memory boards in its enterprise product line in 2023.

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• [News] LPDDR6’s Bandwidth Expected to be Increased over 100%

(Photo credit: Samsung)

The surge in memory product prices continues, driven by the AI wave revitalizing the memory market. According to a report from Liberty Times Net, prices of high-performance DRAM are also on the rise. Industry sources cited by the same report have indicated that SK Hynix’s LPDDR5/LPDDR4/DDR5 and other DRAM products will see a comprehensive price hike of 15-20%.

According to a report from Chinese media Wallstreetcn, it has cited industry sources, noting that SK Hynix’s DRAM product prices have been steadily increasing month by month since the fourth quarter of last year, with cumulative increases ranging from approximately 60% to 100%. This upward trend in memory prices is expected to continue until the second half of the year.

On April 25th, SK Hynix announced its first-quarter financial results, with revenue soaring to KRW 12.42 trillion, marking a staggering 144.3% increase compared to the same period last year. Operating profit reached KRW 2.88 trillion, far exceeding market expectations of KRW 1.8 trillion, and achieving the second-highest historical figure for the same period.

Contrasting with the loss of KRW 3.4 trillion in the same period last year, this performance represents a significant turnaround for SK Hynix, signaling a shift from a prolonged period of stagnation to comprehensive recovery.

Looking ahead, SK Hynix expressed optimism, stating that the growing demand for memory driven by AI and the recovery of demand for general DRAM products starting from the second half of this year will contribute to a stable growth trend in the memory market for the rest of the year.

Industry sources cited by the report predict that as demand for high-end products like HBM increases, requiring larger capacity compared to general DRAM products, the increase in output of high-end products will lead to a relative decrease in supply of general DRAM products. Consequently, both suppliers and clients are expected to deplete their inventories.

In line with the trend of growing memory demand for AI applications, SK Hynix has decided to ramp up the production of its HBM3e products, which began global production in March this year, and expand its customer base. Additionally, the company plans to launch its fifth-generation 10-nanometer class (1b) 32Gb DDR5 DRAM products within this year, aiming to strengthen its market leadership in high-capacity DRAM products for servers.

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(Photo credit: SK Hynix)

Amid the memory market’s gradual recovery, memory manufacturers are aggressively increasing prices back to pre-reduction levels and achieve profitability. According to a report from TechNews, however, module suppliers are reportedly resisting these price hikes and considering ways to negotiate with manufacturers, potentially through non-purchasing actions.

With the continued growth in demand for AI and high-performance computing, memory prices are on the rise. According to TrendForce, Kioxia and WDC have increased capacity utilization since Q1 2024, while others maintain low production strategies. Although NAND Flash procurement slightly decreased in the second quarter compared to the first quarter, the overall market sentiment continues to be influenced by reduced supplier inventory and production cut effects. As a result, NAND Flash contract prices for the second quarter are expected to see a strong increase of approximately 13-18%.

Apart from NAND Flash, in the realm of DRAM, although suppliers’ inventories have decreased, they have not yet returned to healthy levels. Moreover, in the context of improving losses, suppliers are increasing capacity utilization.

However, due to unfavorable overall demand prospects for 2024 and significant price hikes by suppliers since the fourth quarter of 2023, the momentum for inventory replenishment is expected to weaken gradually. Therefore, TrendForce predicts that the second-quarter contract price increase for DRAM will converge to 3% to 8%.

Despite the continuous rise in memory prices driven by applications in artificial intelligence and high-performance computing data centers, demand in the consumer market remains subdued. Manufacturers persist in strong pricing strategies, prompting backlash from module suppliers.

Additionally, it is reported that Micron is preparing to increase second-quarter quotes by over 25%, which is putting pressure on module suppliers and potentially leading to a standoff with manufacturers.

On the other hand, module suppliers are showing a lukewarm response to the price increases and are particularly hesitant to accept price increases themselves.

However, with the three major memory manufacturers facing constraints on adding new capacity in the short term, whether module suppliers will be forced to accept significant price increases remains to be seen.

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