According to a news report from UDN, despite U.S. restrictions on the exportation of technologies related to advanced semiconductor processes, China is fortifying its independent chip development capabilities.

ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), a Chinese DRAM chip manufacturer, presented a paper at the 69th IEEE International Electron Devices Meeting (IEDM) in San Francisco, showcasing a Gate-All-Around (GAA) technology applicable to cutting-edge 3nm chips.

According to an article from South China Morning Post, while CXMT has not yet released sample products, the evidence of the company’s next-generation memory production has caught the attention of industry analysts. This is noteworthy because the design of such chips typically involves technology subject to U.S. export restrictions.

Frederick Chen, a memory expert at Winbond Electronics, a Taiwan-based company, said the evidence of progress by CXMT is “impressive”, as it shows that the Chinese company is not far away from state-of-the-art research and products. “It’s significant because Samsung Electronics is trying to do the same.” Chen said.

Regarding this matter, CXMT has maintained a relatively low profile. Reportedly, in a statement to the South China Morning Post on Wednesday, CXMT stated that the paper “describes fundamental research related to DRAM structure and the feasibility of 4F2 design” and “it has nothing to do with CXMT’s current production processes.” This may have implied that the conceptual design is still distant from becoming a market-ready product.

“Any accusation that CXMT is violating US sanctions or export controls is completely inaccurate,” the company’s export control experts said. “We firmly believe that the free flow of ideas that IEDM seeks to foster is essential for the industry’s innovation and development.”

At the end of this November, CXMT released China’s first LPDDR5 chip, marking the entry of Chinese manufacturers into the DDR5 competition and narrowing the technological gap with leading memory suppliers such as South Korea’s Samsung and SK Hynix.

(Photo credit: CXMT)

On November 28, CXMT made a highlight in the Chinese market by unveiling its latest DRAM LPDDR5. It becomes the first company in China to self-develop and manufacture such DRAMs. CXMT said it has already received validation from major Chinese smartphone brands like Xiaomi and Transsion, signaling plans for swift market commercialization.

This launch not only improves the quality and cost-effectiveness of applications in personal and business sectors but also accelerates the industrialization of the Chinese DRAM industry, positioning CXMT at the forefront of the LPDDR5 era.

Latest Developments in CXMT’s LPDDR5 Strategy

The “LP” in LPDDR stands for Low Power, representing a type of Synchronous Dynamic Random Access Memory (SDRAM) product with lower power consumption compared to DDR. The JEDEC(Solid State Technology Association) categorizes DRAM into three kinds based on different application needs: Standard DDR, LPDDR, and GDDR. DDR is primarily used in servers and PCs, LPDDR in mobile phones and consumer electronics, and GDDR in image processing.

LPDDR5, the fifth generation of low-power double data rate synchronous dynamic random access memory, is the latest focus for CXMT. The company officially launched its LPDDR5 series, including 12Gb LPDDR5 chips, 12GB LPDDR5 chips with package on package (PoP) packaging, and 6GB LPDDR5 chips with die stacking chip (DSC) packaging.

CXMT’s LPDDR5 chips incorporate robust RAS (Reliability, Availability, and Serviceability) features, utilizing on-die error correction code (ECC) technology for real-time error correction, minimizing system failures, ensuring data security, and enhancing stability.

International Memory Giants Vying for Market Share

In September 2023, Samsung announced the development of a series of Low-Power Compressed Additional Memory Modules (LPCAMM), utilizing LPDDR5X memory. During the “2023 Investor Forum” held in Hong Kong in November, Samsung revealed plans to prepare new memory solutions for the automotive sector, including the new LPDDR5X.

SK Hynix officially supplied customers with 16GB capacity LPDDR5T (Low Power Double Data Rate 5 Turbo) products in November, marking the fastest mobile DRAM product with a transmission speed of up to 9.6Gbps.

Micron introduced LPDDR5X DRAM in 2022, with its LPDDR5X-9600 utilizing the latest 1β process technology. With a maximum capacity of 16GB, its speed is 12% higher than the previously fastest LPDDR5X-8533.

Promising Future for LPDDR5 Market

From the current DRAM market share perspective, TrendForce’s statistics on industry revenue from the second quarter show that Samsung has a market share of 39.6%, SK Hynix has 30.1%, and Micron (25.8%), together accounting for over 95% of the market share. Including Nanya Technology (2%) and Winbond Electronics (0.9%), the top five companies account for 98.4%.

Although industry points out that, compared to global giants, China-produced LPDDR5 currently has certain gaps in terms of capacity, speed, and other aspects, it is essential to note that LPDDR5 is trending towards becoming the mainstream in smartphone products. CXMT’s entry into this field coincides with the boom in LPDDR5 development.

TrendForce’s recent research on LPDDR indicates that LPDDR4X remains predominant in the mainstream market, with LPDDR5(X) focus on the high-end market for smartphones. However, with the introduction of Intel’s new Alder lake platform, LPDDR5(X) is gaining prominence in the laptop sector. It is estimated that the market share of LPDDR5(X) will exceed 25% in 2023.

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Stepping into the fourth quarter of 2023, the memory market is witnessing a comprehensive uptick in DRAM and NAND Flash prices. This surge, attributed to the gradual impact of companies’ production cuts and sustained robust demand in specific application markets, is poised to continue into the first quarter of the following year.

TrendForce’s analysis reveals an estimated 13-18% increase in Mobile DRAM contract prices for the fourth quarter, while eMMC and UFS NAND Flash contracts are expected to see a rise of about 10-15%. Looking forward to the first quarter of 2024, the upward trajectory in overall memory prices is anticipated to persist. The contract prices for Mobile DRAM and NAND Flash (eMMC, UFS) are expected to continue ascending, contingent on whether companies uphold a conservative production strategy and if there’s tangible consumer demand support at the end.

The memory market, coming out of its challenging phase, is not just experiencing increases in prices but is also anticipated to gain momentum from various factors contributing to its revival.

AI-Driven Surge in Smartphone Memory Capacities

According to reports from Wccftech, a notable trend in 2024 is the rise of terminal AI, now integrated into various chipsets like Snapdragon 8 Gen 3, Dimensity 9300, and Exynos 2400. Smartphones with AI demand more memory, with the expectation that Android phones featuring built-in AI will require a minimum of 20GB RAM.

While 8GB RAM remains the standard for Android phones, there are now phones in the market boasting higher RAM capacities than most laptops or PCs, though it has yet to become ubiquitous. Industry experts suggest that to smoothly execute AI image feature in the future, Android phones will need at least 12GB RAM. Considering AI applications and other features, phones will require over 20GB RAM for seamless operations.

Given that numerous Android phone brands are actively investing in AI, 2024 is poised to make AI a focal point for devices. Consequently, the industry underscores that as RAM requirements rise, hardware specifications become more crucial than ever for modern AI devices.

Noteworthy Growth in DDR5 Market Demand

Industry experts anticipate significant growth in demand for the DDR5 market, fueled by decreasing prices and the continuous improvement in companies’ yields.

As a high-value-added DRAM, DDR5 continues to garner favor from major players. Micron recent announcement of DDR5 memory based on 1β technology, boasting speeds of up to 7200 MT/s, signifies a shift toward the data center and PC markets.

Recently, Micron also introduced a 128GB DDR5 RDIMM memory utilizing 32Gb chips. This series boasts speeds of up to 8000 MT/s and is suitable for server and workstations. Employing Micron’s 1β technology, these series contribute to a 24% improvement in energy efficiency and 16% reduction in latency. Furthermore, Micron plans to launch models with speeds of 4800 MT/s, 5600 MT/s, and 6400 MT/s in 2024, with an upcoming model featuring a speed of 8000 MT/s in the future.

In terms of Samsung, it is reported to expand its DDR5 production line. Given the high value of DDR5 and its adoption in the PC and server markets, this year is considered a “year of large-scale adoption of DDR5.”

Improvement in HBM Supply Situation

Similar to DDR5, HBM, a high-value-added DRAM, has attracted significant attention this year. Fueled by the AI trend, the demand for the HBM market has surged, leading to an expansion in HBM production capacity.

TrendForce’s research indicates that looking ahead to 2024, the HBM sufficiency ratio is expected to improve, shifting from -2.4% in 2023 to 0.6%. With the AI boom driving demand for AI chips in 2023 and 2024, companies are increasing HBM capacity, anticipating a significant improvement in the HBM supply in 2024.

In terms of specifications, as the performance needs of AI chips increase, it’s anticipated that HBM3 and HBM3e will become the dominant choices in 2024. In general, with a rise in demand and the higher average selling prices of HBM3 and HBM3e compared to older versions, the revenue from HBM is expected to experience significant growth in 2024.

(Image: Qualcomm)

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This year, increasing demand for ChatGPT, along with ongoing innovations in PC and server technologies, has driven a growing market preference for high-value DRAM chips such as HBM and DDR5. Memory giants are collectively and actively positioning themselves in the production of these products.

DDR5: Micron Unveils New Products, Samsung Plans Line Expansion

The current DDR5 process has advanced to 1β DRAM. In October, Micron announced the release of DDR5 memory based on 1β technology, boasting speeds of up to 7200 MT/s. This product is now shipping to all customers in the data centers and PC markets.

Recently, Micron introduced the 128GB DDR5 RDIMM memory, utilizing 32Gb chips. With speeds of up to 8000 MT/s, it is suitable for servers and workstations. It also employs Micron’s 1β technology, and achieves a 24% improvement in energy efficiency and a 16% reduction in latency. Micron plans to launch models with speeds of 4800 MT/s, 5600 MT/s, and 6400 MT/s in 2024, with a future model reaching 8000 MT/s.

On the other hand, memory giant Samsung is committed to increasing DDR5 production capacity. Reports suggest that Samsung is planning to expand the production of high-value DRAM, investing in the infrastructure for advanced DRAM and increasing R&D spending to solidify its long-term market dominance.

Samsung, report as per KED Global News, is internally considering expanding DDR5 production lines. Given the high value of DDR5 and its adoption in the PC and server markets, this year is essentially regarded as the “year of widespread DDR5 adoption.”

HBM: Expansion Trend Begins, Significant Revenue Growth Expected

Amid the AI boom, HBM continues to gain popularity with demand supply outpacing. To meet this demand, storage giants are actively expanding production.

Recent reports indicate that companies like Samsung are planning to increase HBM production by 2.5 times. Additionally, in early November, it was reported that Samsung, to expand HBM capacity, acquired certain buildings and equipment within the Samsung Display Cheonan Factory. Samsung plans to establish a new packaging line at Cheonan for large-scale HBM production, having spent 10.5 billion Korean won on the acquisition and planning additional investments ranging from 700 billion to 1 trillion Korean won.

Micron, on the other hand, announced the official activation of its Taiwan-based Taichung Fab on November 6th. This facility will integrate advanced probe and 3D- packaging test, producing HBM3E and other products to meet the growing demand in various applications such as AI, data centers, edge computing, and the cloud.

TrendForce indicates that HBM, a memory embedded in high-end AI chips, is primarily supplied by three major vendors: Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. With the AI trend driving demand for AI chips, demand for HBM is also expected to increase in 2023 and 2024, prompting manufacturers to ramp up HBM production.

Looking ahead to 2024, the supply of HBM is expected to improve significantly. In terms of specifications, as AI chips demand higher performance, the mainstream for HBM in 2024 is expected to shift to HBM3 and HBM3e. Overall, with increased demand and higher average selling prices for HBM3 and HBM3e compared to the previous generation, HBM revenue is expected to see significant growth in 2024.
(Image: Samsung)

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According to Economic Daily News’ report, the DDR3 market is experiencing a surge in prices, with an almost 10% short-term increase. Contract prices for this quarter are expected to rise by 10% to 15%, with a continued optimistic outlook for the first quarter of next year.

Market analysts point out that global leaders like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron currently dominate standard DRAM and NAND Flash. Taiwan-based companies are unable to compete with them in chip production, except for module companies which have the potential to capitalize on the rebound of the DRAM and NAND market due to their advantage of low-cost inventory.

On the other hand, DDR3 production remains primarily under Taiwan’s purview, and the price surge is significant, providing substantial assistance to Taiwanese memory industry players.

Industry sources indicate that the main impetus behind the current memory market upswing stems from the continual reduction in production by major international manufacturers. With tightening capacities, they are strictly controlling shipments, displaying their determination to support the price increases.

Besides, companies like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are actively venturing into AI applications, shifting their main capacity to produce high-bandwidth memory, DDR5, and other advanced areas. This shift has created room in the DDR3 market. Recent replenishment of inventories on the client end, along with a surge in orders for consumer electronics, has been witnessed.

TrendForce indicated that DDR3 prices have been steadily rising since September. The cumulative increase for DDR3 4Gb has reached nearly 10%, while DDR3 2Gb has shown a cumulative rise of 14%; regarding contract prices, TrendForce expects a robust increase of 10% to 15% for this quarter, with a continued strength forecasted for the first quarter of next year, likely to rise another 5% to 10%.

DDR3-related companies are optimistic about market developments. Etron believes that with inventory digestion coming to an end, “the cyclical bottom is over,” and they are gradually heading towards the dawn of recovery. They hold a positive outlook for significant growth in the global DRAM market next year.

ESMT, on the other hand, continues to advance the progress of their in-house products. They are continuously developing new products in DRAM, Flash, and MCP, expanding into different markets. This includes accelerating the development of 19-nanometer DRAM, achieving mass production of 28-nanometer NAND Flash, and researching niche memory products for automotive applications.

Winbond’s General Manager, Pei-Ming Chen, points out that their operations for this quarter will be better than the third quarter and they have a positive view of the DRAM market for next year.

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