NVIDIA has yet to officially announce the exact release dates for its next-generation AI chip architectures, the Blackwell GPU, and the B100 chip. However, Dell’s Chief Operating Officer, Jeff Clarke, recently revealed ahead of schedule during Dell’s Q4 2024 Earnings Call that NVIDIA is set to introduce the Blackwell architecture next year, with plans to release not only the B100 chip but also another variant, the B200 chip.

Following Dell’s recent financial report, Clarke disclosed in a press release that NVIDIA is set to unveil the B200 product featuring the Blackwell architecture in 2025.

Clarke also mentioned that Dell’s flagship product, the PowerEdge XE9680 rack server, utilizes NVIDIA GPUs, making it the fastest solution in the company’s history. He expressed anticipation for NVIDIA’s release of the B100 and B200 chips. This news has sparked significant market interest, as NVIDIA has yet to publicly mention the B200 chip.

Clarke further stated that the B200 chip will showcase Dell’s engineering expertise in high-end servers, especially in liquid cooling systems. As for the progress of the B100 chip, NVIDIA has yet to disclose its specific parameters and release date.

NVIDIA’s current flagship H200 chip in the high-performance computing market adopts the Hopper GPU architecture paired with HBM3e memory chips, considered the most capable chip for AI computing in the industry.

However, NVIDIA continues to accelerate the development of its next-generation AI chip architectures. According to NVIDIA’s previously disclosed development roadmap, the next-generation product after the H200 chip is the B100 chip. Therefore, the expectation was that the B100 chip would be the highest-specification chip based on the Blackwell GPU architecture. Nevertheless, with the emergence of the B200 chip, it has sparked further speculation.

Previously, media speculation cited by the report from Commercial Times stated based on the scale of the H200 chip that the computational power of the B100 chip would be at least twice that of the H200 and four times that of the H100.

Read more

• [News] NVIDIA Expands Advanced Packaging Supply Chain with Intel’s Inclusion, Diverting Orders from TSMC
• [News] NVIDIA Reportedly Overwhelms TSMC with 3 and 4-Nanometer Orders

(Photo credit: NVIDIA)

Dell, a major server brand, placed a substantial order for AI servers just before NVIDIA’s Q2 financial report. This move is reshaping Taiwan’s supply chain dynamics, favoring companies like Wistron and Lite-On.

Dell is aggressively entering the AI server market, ordering NVIDIA’s top-tier H100 chips and components. The order’s value this year is estimated in hundreds of billions of Taiwanese dollars, projected to double in the next year. Wistron and Lite-On are poised to benefit, securing vital assembly and power supply orders. EMC and Chenbro are also joining the supply chain.

Dell’s AI server order, which includes assembly (including complete machines, motherboards, GPU boards, etc.) and power supply components, stands out with its staggering value. The competition was most intense in the assembly sector, ultimately won by Wistron. In the power supply domain, industry leaders like Delta, Lite-On, secured a notable share, with Lite-On emerging as a winner, sparking significant industry discussions.

According to Dell’s supply chain data, AI server inventory will reach 20,000 units this year and increase next year. The inventory primarily features the highest-end H100 chips from NVIDIA, with a few units integrating the A100 chips. With each H100 unit priced at $300,000 and A100 units exceeding $100,000, even with a seemingly modest 20,000 units, the total value remains in the billions of New Taiwan Dollars.

Wistron is a standout winner in Dell’s AI server assembly order, including complete machines, motherboards, and GPU boards. Wistron has existing H100 server orders and will supply new B100 baseboard orders. Their AI server baseboard plant in Hsinchu, Taiwan will expand by Q3 this year. Wistron anticipates year-round growth in the AI server business.

As we look at the global economic growth rates for 2022, one country’s GDP performance stands out: Vietnam. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Vietnam’s estimated GDP growth rate for 2022 is 7%, compared to 2.6% in 2021, making it the most fast-growing country among the neighbouring countries.

Undoubtedly, the country’s impressive performance is largely due to the global supply chain’s migration to the country, driven by the COVID-19 pandemic and the trade war between the US and China.

Pandemic and Trade War as Catalysts for Supply Chain Relocation

Long before the supply chain’s recent move, Samsung had already made aggressive investments by allocating 60% of Samsung Galaxy phones’ production in Vietnam. As a result of that, Vietnam’s electronics manufacturing exports surpassed its largest industry, textiles, a decade ago.

Over the last couple of years, the increasing tension between U.S. and China’s lockdown during the pandemic has made the leading brands aware of the high geopolitical risks as well as the importance of supply chain diversification. These concerns forced them to vigorously re-evaluate the plan to move their manufacturing factories to Vietnam, mitigating the risks they are exposed to.

Laptops: The Last Piece of Puzzle

In this migration, Apple and Dell have been the most proactive brands. After Shanghai’s lockdown, Apple has chosen Vietnam as its second-largest production base for laptops, tablets, and TWS earphones. Luxshare has already attracted attentions for building an AirPod production line in Vietnam, but not until recently, the laptop OEMs in Taiwan have geared up for expanding their investments there: a couple days ago Quanta Computer just announced a $50 million investment to establish a Vietnamese subsidiary to produce MacBooks; Foxconn, another key supplier of Apple’s macbook, is reported to begin their trial run for macbook after an $9 billion investment in 2022 for capacity increase.

On the other hand, it is said that Dell had actively reviewed its suppliers and component sources before 2022 to ensure the stable supply for their bidding market in the North American. As Dell becomes more aggressive in shifting their production lines from China to other locations, suppliers such as Compal and Wistron have also been actively building laptop assembly lines in Vietnam for the past two years.

A flexible production model is on the horizon

In the past, most OEMs considered Vietnam as a backup due to the complex logistic management potentially caused by the relocation of production lines. However, given that the most complicated and rigid laptop supply chains have begun to move, it is generally believed that this represents a solid trend where Vietnam is almost set to take over China’s position.

According to TrendForce, Vietnam is projected to account for 5% of global laptop shipments by 2023, which marks a notable increase from less than 1% just a year ago, making the country the second-largest laptop production base after China.

However, from the perspective of supply chain risk diversification, brand customers demand production models that not only reduce over-concentration in China but also enable quick response to possible contingencies at each production base.

That means even if laptop production is concentrated in China and Vietnam, if there is an urgent situation, OEM factories’ production lines in other regions must be able to provide immediate support. Such production models will inevitably reshape the supply chain landscape moving forward.

(Photo credit: Freepik)

According to TrendForce’s latest research, global NB shipments are forecasted to drop by 5.8% YoY to around 177 million units. However, the downtrend in NB shipments is starting to moderate, and the projected figure for 2023 is expected to represent the lowest point before 2025. Currently, inventory corrections for components and whole devices are taking place in the global supply chain for NBs. Prices are also being cut substantially across sales channels, and PC OEMs have scaled back component procurements. There is a chance that the NB market will return to its usual cyclical pattern and show growth during 2H23, when back-to-school and holiday-related promotions are expected to boost device sales.

However, this scenario will depend on two factors. First, PC OEMs will have been able to effectively get rid of the existing stock of NBs belonging to the older generations during 1H23. Second, global inflation will ease as 2023 progresses. Currently, the IMF forecasts that the rate of global inflation will slide down to 6.5% in 2023, compared with 8.8% in 2023. Such development will help raise the consumer spending related to electronics. All in all, notable inventory corrections and the reduction of inflationary pressure will allow the NB market to leave the gloomy situation of 2022 and get back to upbeat state of quarter-to-quarter shipment growth.

Market Segments for Commercial and Consumer NBs Will Both See Decline in 2023, Chromebooks, Gaming NBs, and Creator NBs Will Become Main Demand Drivers

Looking at the various segments of the NB market, unit shipments and market share are expected to drop for both commercial NBs and consumer NBs. Conversely, Chromebooks will grow in terms of shipments and market share despite various headwinds. In 1H23, mature regional markets such as the US and emerging regional markets such as Indonesia and India will be releasing tenders for Chromebook for educational uses. Turning to gaming NBs, their global shipments are forecasted to increase by 8.3% YoY to 17.45 million units for 2023 thanks to the seasonal demand surge in 2H23. As for creator NBs, the market for them is growing because professional content creators want to purchase a “mobile workstation” in place of a high-end gaming NB for tasks such as building 3D models and processing large amounts of multimedia files. Global shipments of creator NBs are forecasted to rise by 24.9% YoY to around 437,000 units for 2023.

(Note: “NB” stands for notebook or laptop computer.)

Since corrections continue to occur in the current global notebook computer market as a result of the “overbooking” bubble, destocking of terminal products is expected to continue until the first half of 2023, when cyclical growth momentum is likely to return to the market.

TrendForce forecasts that global notebook computer market shipments will reach 191 million units in 2022, falling 22.3% YoY. The first quarter of 2022 benefitted from a backstop created by market demand for business model notebooks, laying the foundation for a 2022 “not-off off-season.” However, the global notebook computer market encountered zero-COVID control measures in Shanghai, China, resulting in a supply chain suspension in 2Q22. In addition, rising inflation stalled global consumer electronics market demand. Shipment volume is only expected to be approximately 44.35 million units up until 4Q22, demonstrating that 2022 has reversed the established market norm, replacing “QoQ growth” with “QoQ decline.”

Global notebook computer market shipments will reach 177 million units in 2023, cyclical growth momentum is expected to play an important role

Looking back on 2022, due to the reversal of demand in the global notebook computer market beginning in 2Q22, the overbooking bubble caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has corrected quarter by quarter, resulting in a sharp increase in inventory levels at PC brands. Therefore, accelerating the destocking of notebook computer products is the current focus of PC brands with individual sales channels all adopting promotional strategies based on substantial price cuts. If the inventory level of terminal products can be reduced, it will be beneficial for PC brands to continue purchasing semiconductors and other materials in 2023 and pessimistic market conditions will not spread to the foundry industry, which is conducive to a positive cycle.

Movements in the current global laptop market to correct for the overbooking bubble will continue until the first half of 2023. The second half of 2023 coincides with cyclical growth momentum from back-to-school shopping and holiday seasons in major consumer electronics markets such as the United States, Europe, China, and Japan, and the global notebook computer supply chain is expected to ramp up supply from 2Q23 to reproduce a demand scenario wherein the second half of previous years surpassed the first half. Global notebook computer market shipments is estimated to reach 177 million units in 2023, an annual decline of approximately 7.7% and the proportion of shipments in terms of the first half compared to the second half of the year will be approximately 47:53.

（ Image credit: pikwizard）