Memory manufacturer Micron Technology stated on April 11 that the earthquake in Taiwan on April 3 has impacted its DRAM supply, estimated to be between 4-6% (mid-single digit percentage).

Micron emphasized in an 8-K filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that the earthquake did not cause permanent damage to its facilities, infrastructure, or equipment, and will not have a long-term effect on DRAM supply.

Micron noted that as of now, DRAM production post-earthquake has not fully recovered, but progress in facility restoration is promising thanks to efforts by the Taiwan team.

In February this year, Micron announced the commencement of mass production of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips, designed for use in NVIDIA’s H200 GPU for AI applications.

In March, Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra indicated that the company’s HBM chips earmarked for AI applications are sold out for 2024, with much of the 2025 supply already allocated.

Micron previously described HBM chips as utilizing stacked DRAM technology. The company did not specify whether the HBM supply would be affected by the earthquake.

Per a previous TrendForce press release, the three major original HBM manufacturers held market shares as follows in 2023: SK Hynix and Samsung were both around 47.5%, while Micron stood at roughly 5%.

As per Micron’s previous report, regarding growth outlooks for various end markets in 2024, the annual growth rate for the data center industry has been revised upward from mid-single digits to mid-to-high single digits, while the PC industry’s annual growth rate remains at low to mid-single digits. AI PCs are expected to capture a certain market share in 2025. The annual growth rate for the mobile phone industry has been adjusted upward from modest growth to low to mid-single digits.

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• [News] Micron’s Financial Report Reveals High Demand for HBM in 2025, Capacity Nears Full Allocation
• [News] Micron Begins Mass Production of HBM3e for NVIDIA’s H200

(Photo credit: Micron)

Recently, South Korean media Alphabiz reported that Samsung may exclusively supply 12-layer HBM3e to NVIDIA.

The report indicates NVIDIA is set to commence large-scale purchases of Samsung Electronics’ 12-layer HBM3e as early as September, who will exclusively provide the 12-layer HBM3e to NVIDIA.

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang, as per Alphabiz reported, left his signature “Jensen Approved” on a physical 12-layer HBM3e product from Samsung Electronics at GTC 2024, which seems to suggest NVIDIA’s recognition of Samsung’s HBM3e product.

HBM is characterized by its high bandwidth, high capacity, low latency, and low power consumption. With the surge in artificial intelligence (AI) industry, the acceleration of AI large-scale model applications has driven the continuous growth of demand in high-performance memory market.

According to TrendForce’s data, HBM market value accounted for approximately 8.4% of the overall DRAM industry in 2023, and this percentage is projected to expand to 20.1% by the end of 2024.

Senior Vice President Avril Wu notes that by the end of 2024, the DRAM industry is expected to allocate approximately 250K/m (14%) of total capacity to producing HBM TSV, with an estimated annual supply bit growth of around 260%.

HBM3e: Three Major Original Manufacturers Kick off Fierce Rivalry

Following the debut of the world’s first TSV HBM product in 2014, HBM memory technology has now iterated to HBM3e after nearly 10 years of development.

From the perspective of original manufacturers, competition in the HBM3e market primarily revolves around Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung. It is reported that these three major manufacturers already provided 8-hi (24GB) samples in late July, mid-August, and early October 2023, respectively. It is worth noting that this year, they have kicked off fierce competition in the HBM3e market by introducing latest products.

On February 27th, Samsung announced the launch of its first 12-layer stacked HBM3e DRAM–HBM3e 12H, which marks Samsung’s largest-capacity HBM product to date, boasting a capacity of up to 36GB. Samsung stated that it has begun offering samples of the HBM3e 12H to customers and anticipates starting mass production in the second half of this year.

In early March, Micron announced that it had commenced mass production of its HBM3e solution. The company stated that the NVIDIA H200 Tensor Core GPU will adopt Micron’s 8-layer stacked HBM3e memory with 24GB capacity and shipments are set to begin in the second quarter of 2024.

On March 19th, SK Hynix announced the successful large-scale production of its new ultra-high-performance memory product, HBM3e, designed for AI applications. This achievement symbolizes the world’s first supply of DRAM’s highest-performance HBM3e in existence to customers.

A previous report from TrendForce has indicated that, starting in 2024, the market’s attention will shift from HBM3 to HBM3e, with expectations for a gradual ramp-up in production through the second half of the year, positioning HBM3e as the new mainstream in the HBM market.

TrendForce reports that SK hynix led the way with its HBM3e validation in the first quarter, closely followed by Micron, which plans to start distributing its HBM3e products toward the end of the first quarter, in alignment with NVIDIA’s planned H200 deployment by the end of the second quarter.

Samsung, slightly behind in sample submissions, is expected to complete its HBM3e validation by the end of the first quarter, with shipments rolling out in the second quarter. With Samsung having already made significant strides in HBM3 and its HBM3e validation expected to be completed soon, the company is poised to significantly narrow the market share gap with SK Hynix by the end of the year, reshaping the competitive dynamics in the HBM market.

Read more

• HBM3 Initially Exclusively Supplied by SK Hynix, Samsung Rallies Fast After AMD Validation, Says TrendForce
• [News] SK Hynix Reportedly Plans to Invest USD 4 Billion in Advanced Packaging Fab in Indiana

(Photo credit: SK Hynix)

Reportedly, South Korean memory giant SK Hynix has capitalized on the surging demand in the artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing (HPC) markets. As per a report by ComputerBase, with its HBM and DDR5 products, SK Hynix has swiftly emerged from the slump in the memory market in 2023 and anticipates further growth. Consequently, a new phase of expansion is underway.

The report further indicates that SK Hynix plans to invest at least KRW 120 trillion (approximately USD 89.4 billion) to construct a new semiconductor production complex in Yongin, located in the central part of Gyeonggi Province, South Korea. This includes four independent fabs, with preparations currently underway, one-third of which has already been completed.

The report indicates that SK Hynix announced plans to build the world’s largest chip production facility as early as 2019. However, due to various reasons, the project was delayed until 2022 when agreements were reached with the central and local governments of South Korea, allowing the project to progress.

SK Hynix intends to commence its expansion project officially in March 2025, with the first fab scheduled for completion in 2027 and the entire complex expected to be completed by 2046. It is yet clear whether the first fab will produce DRAM or NAND Flash memory. However, given the significant demand for HBM products in the AI market, and considering SK Hynix’s tight production capacity, this is likely the direction they will choose.

HBM, a type of DRAM primarily used in AI servers, is experiencing a surge in demand worldwide, led by NVIDIA. Moreover, according to a previous TrendForce press release, the three major original HBM manufacturers held market shares as follows in 2023: SK Hynix and Samsung were both around 46-49%, while Micron stood at roughly 4-6%.

Additionally, the four planned fabs are expected to occupy half of the complex’s size, with SK Hynix also constructing numerous supporting facilities in the area, such as wastewater treatment plants and resource recycling centers. Apart from SK Hynix, Samsung has also opted to construct a similar semiconductor production complex nearby, which includes research and development centers, to meet the anticipated market demands ahead.

Read more

• [News] SK Hynix Reportedly Invests USD 1 Billion in Advanced Packaging to Strengthen HBM Chip Leadership
• [News] SK Hynix Rumored to Propose Collaboration with Kioxia for HBM Production in Japan

(Photo credit: SK Hynix)

Amid the AI boom driving a surge in demand for advanced packaging, South Korean semiconductor giant Samsung Electronics is aggressively entering the advanced packaging arena. On the 20th, it announced its ambitions to achieve record-high revenue in advanced packaging this year, aiming to surpass the USD 100 million mark.

According to reports from Reuters and The Korea Times, Samsung’s annual shareholders’ meeting took place on March 20th.

During the meeting, Han Jong-hee, the vice chairman of the company, stated as follows: “Although the macroeconomic environment is expected to be uncertain this year, we see an opportunity for increased growth through next-generation technology innovation.”

“Samsung plans to apply AI to all devices, including smartphones, foldable devices, accessories and extended reality (XR), to provide customers with a new experience where generative AI and on-device AI unfold,” Han added.

Samsung established the Advanced Package Business Team under the Device Solutions business group in December last year. Samsung Co-CEO Kye-Hyun Kyung stated that he expects the results of Samsung’s investment to come out in earnest from the second half of this year.

Kyung further noted that for a future generation of HBM chips called HBM4, likely to be released in 2025 with more customised designs, Samsung will take advantage of having memory chips, chip contract manufacturing and chip design businesses under one roof to satisfy customer needs.

According to a previous report from TrendForce, Samsung led the pack with the highest revenue growth among the top manufacturers in Q4 as it jumped 50% QoQ to hit $7.95 billion, largely due to a surge in 1alpha nm DDR5 shipments, boosting server DRAM shipments by over 60%. In the fourth quarter of last year, Samsung secured a market share of 45.5% in DRAM chips.

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• [News] Samsung Accelerates 3D Packaging with Hybrid Bonding Production Line in Korean Advanced Packaging Hub
• DRAM Industry Sees Nearly 30% Revenue Growth in 4Q23 Due to Rising Prices and Volume, Says TrendForce

(Photo credit: Samsung)

According to a report by the South Korean news outlet The Chosun Daily, Samsung Electronics’ memory business has managed to endure the market downturn from last year. Recently, its strategy of reducing production has finally paid off, driving up chip prices.

Reports suggest that in the first quarter of this year, Samsung plans to raise NAND Flash chip prices by up to 20%, aiming to restore profitability to its memory chip business.

The report quotes a semiconductor industry source as saying, “The first-quarter price negotiations between major memory manufacturers such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix and their customers have not yet been concluded. However, customers are rushing to secure supplies as the price of NAND flash has been steadily increasing, and fears spread that NAND flash cuts will continue this year.”

As per the report citing sources, Samsung Electronics will renegotiate prices with major mobile, PC, and server customers in March and April this year. It is expected to push for a price increase of 15 to 20%.

As per a report from Commercial Times, the global economic downturn last year led to an oversupply of memory and a sharp decline in prices, resulting in severe losses for Samsung and SK Hynix’s memory businesses. Samsung’s memory division experienced its first-ever losses last year, dragging down the company’s overall profits to a new low.

Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix, the three major players in the memory industry, began significant production cuts in the second half of last year, finally causing DRAM chip prices to rebound. However, the NAND Flash chip market is crowded with many manufacturers, including not only the three major players but also Japanese Kioxia and American Western Digital, leading to less significant effects from the production cuts.

Last year, Samsung’s NAND Flash chip business incurred operating losses of KRW 11 trillion (approximately USD 8.3 billion), while SK Hynix’s NAND Flash chip business also faced operating losses of 8 trillion Korean won. Since the second half of last year, the aforementioned companies have halved their production capacities, finally pushing NAND Flash prices up.

Per TrendForce’s data, NAND flash prices have increased for five consecutive months. TrendForce research previously indicated that despite facing a traditional low-demand season, buyers are continuing to increase their purchases of NAND Flash products to establish safe inventory levels. In response, suppliers, aiming to minimize losses are pushing for higher prices, leading to an estimated 15–20% increase in NAND Flash contract prices in 1Q24.

Currently, the NAND Flash market is still dominated by the five major manufacturers, with Samsung and SK Hynix accounting for the lion’s share.

Samsung still firmly held the top position in the NAND Flash market, with its market share increasing from 31.4% in the previous quarter to 36.6%; next was SK Group, with its market share increasing from 20.2% in the previous quarter to 21.6%.

Following them were Western Digital, whose market share decreased from 16.9% in the previous quarter to 14.5%, Kioxia, whose market share decreased from 14.5% in the previous quarter to 12.6%, and Micron, whose market share decreased from 12.5% in the previous quarter to 9.9%.

Read more

• [News] NAND Flash Market Landscape to Change?
• NAND Flash Contract Prices Forecast to Rise 15–20% in 1Q24 Thanks to Supplier-Led Pricing, Says TrendForce

(Photo credit: Samsung)