Kioxia is set to introduce its progress on DRAM storage-class memory (SCM) and 3D-NAND technologies at the IEEE International Electron Devices Meeting (IEDM) 2024 conference in San Francisco in December, featuring its Oxide-Semiconductor Channel Transistor DRAM (OCTRAM) technology jointly developed with Taiwan memory chipmaker Nanya Technology, as well as MRAM-based storage-class memory jointly developed with SK hynix, according to a report from Block and Files.

Kioxia will reportedly present a new type of DRAM with oxide semiconductors that reduce power consumption, MRAM suitable for larger capacities for SCM applications, and a new 3D NAND structure with superior bit density and performance.

According to the report, Kioxia has developed the DRAM with oxide semiconductors with Nanya Technology. This Oxide-Semiconductor Channel Transistor DRAM (OCTRAM) features a gate-all-round InGaZnO (Indium Gallium Zinc Oxide) vertical transistor with the oxide that can reduce current leakage to an “extremely low” level. According to Kioxia’s press release, the technology has the potential to reduce power consumption across various applications, such as AI, post-5G communication systems, and IoT devices.

The MRAM-based storage-class memory is developed with SK hynix. According to Kioxia’s press release, the companies have achieved cell read/write operation at the smallest-ever scale of cell half-pitch of 20.5 nanometers for MRAM. The press release pointed out that memory reliability tends to degrade as cells are miniaturized. The companies develop a new read/write method that can reduce the unwanted capacitance that occurs in the readout circuits.  According to Kioxia’s press release, this technology has practical applications for AI and big data processing.

Last, Kioxia developed a new 3D NAND structure, aiming to enhance reliability and prevent the performance degradation of NAND-type cell. In conventional structures, degradation of performance typically occurs when the number of stacked layers increases. Compared to the conventional structure that stacks NAND-type cells vertically, the new structure arranges NAND-type cells horizontally. The press release indicated that this new structure makes it possible to develop 3D flash memory with high bit density and reliability at low cost.

(Photo credit: Kioxia)

According to TrendForce’s latest memory spot price trend report, regarding DRAM, spot prices for DDR5 products have finally stabilized this week as contract prices have room for further hikes. As for NAND flash, the story seems to be different as the wave of price slashes is only going to become even more apparent as China’s Double 11 shopping festival approaches. Details are as follows:

DRAM Spot Price:

Regarding DDR5 products, spot prices have stabilized this week as contract prices have room for further hikes, and there have also been occasional small price hikes in spot transactions. As for DDR4 products, spot prices show signs of stabilization but have experienced the same kind of increase as DDR5. Overall, demand remains weak for consumer products, suggesting further price drops are possible. The average spot price of mainstream chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) has fallen by 0.31% from US$1.911 last week to US$1.905 this week.

NAND Flash Spot Price:

The reduction of inventory has become the priority for the spot market that is currently experiencing sluggishness in demand and purchase sentiment, seeing how truncations have been frequently happening among retail and channel markets, where several module houses of a larger scale are even selling their client SSD at a loss just to get rid of existing inventory. This wave of price slashes is only going to become even more apparent as China’s Double 11 shopping festival approaches. Spot market prices are thus expected to remain on the downward trajectory. 512Gb TLC wafers have dropped by 0.08% this week, arriving at US$2.493.

The global semiconductor market is nearing the end of its inventory cycle. With the rise of AI-related applications, new energy vehicles, 5G, high-performance computing, and other emerging sectors, industry experts estimate that the global semiconductor industry could reach a valuation of $1 trillion by around 2030.

Recently, new signals have emerged from various regions globally, including China, South Korea, and Japan. Based on the changing data, the growth in different sectors reflects shifts in supply and demand, indicating a widespread recovery trend in the semiconductor industry.

South Korea: Memory Chip Exports Surge by 60.7% YoY

On October 14, local time, data from South Korea’s Ministry of Science and ICT showed that boosted by record semiconductor sales, South Korea’s ICT (Information and Communication Technology) exports in September 2024 increased by 24% year-on-year to 22.36 billion USD(about 160 billion RMB), marking the 11th consecutive month of growth and the second-highest monthly figure on record.

In the semiconductor sector, South Korea’s semiconductor exports amounted to 13.63 billion USD (about 96.5 billion RMB) in September 2024, a historical high, with a 36.3% year-on-year increase.

Notably, memory chip exports surged 60.7% year-on-year to 8.72 billion USD, a nearly 20% increase compared to the previous month. System semiconductor exports rose 5.2% year-on-year to 4.37 billion USD. The Ministry highlighted that the demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and other high-value-added products has fueled significant growth in memory semiconductor exports.

South Korea is home to two of the world’s largest memory manufacturers: Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. According to TrendForce, Samsung and SK Hynix occupy the top two spots globally in the DRAM and NAND Flash markets, followed by Micron. Hence, South Korea’s semiconductor sector remains a focal point for the industry.

Additionally, the memory market has experienced significant fluctuations this year, with concerns about future trends.

TrendForce data indicated that before the third quarter of 2024, demand for consumer products remained weak, with AI servers driving the primary demand for memory. However, as HBM gains more market share, it is crowding out the capacity for existing DRAM products, leading suppliers to maintain certain pricing levels for contracts. Although server OEMs have maintained momentum in placing orders, smartphone brands are still cautious.

TrendForce forecasts that the growth rate of memory prices will significantly slow in the fourth quarter. Conventional DRAM prices are expected to increase by 0% to 5%, but with HBM accounting for a larger proportion of sales, the overall DRAM price is estimated to rise by 8% to 13%, marking a noticeable slowdown compared to the previous quarter.

China: Integrated Circuit Exports Grow by 22%

According to recent statistics from Chinese customs, China’s total imports and exports reached 32.33 trillion RMB in the first three quarters of 2024, up by 5.3% year-on-year. Of this, exports grew by 6.2% to 18.62 trillion RMB, and imports increased by 4.1% to 13.71 trillion RMB.

In terms of exports, China’s exports of mechanical and electrical products reached 11.03 trillion RMB in the first three quarters, an increase of 8%, accounting for 59.3% of total exports. Notably, high-end equipment exports grew by 43.4%, while exports of integrated circuits, automobiles, and household appliances rose by 22%, 22.5%, and 15.5%, respectively.

In terms of imports, China’s integrated circuit and auto parts imports grew by 13.5% and 4.6%, respectively, in the first three quarters. Consumer goods imports exceeded 1.3 trillion RMB.

Regionally, China’s trade with over 160 countries and regions has grown, indicating steady diversification. Trade with Belt and Road Initiative countries reached 15.21 trillion RMB, growing by 6.3% and accounting for 47.1% of China’s total trade. Trade with RCEP members grew by 4.5%, with ASEAN trade increasing by 9.4%. Meanwhile, trade with the EU and the U.S. grew by 0.9% and 4.2%, respectively.

Japan: Semiconductor Equipment Exports to China Surge by 61.6%

Data released by Japan’s Ministry of Finance shows that in August 2024, Japan’s semiconductor equipment exports to China surged by 61.6%, reaching 179.9 billion yen (around $1.29 billion).

The total weight of equipment exported from Japan to China in August was 6,742 tons, a 41% increase compared to the previous month. Machinery accounted for 23.2% of Japan’s total exports to China, with semiconductor equipment making up 11.9%.

These figures underscore Japan’s critical role in the global semiconductor supply chain.

Additionally, ASML, the Dutch photolithography giant, previously reported that its exports to China grew by 21% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2024, reaching 2.3 billion euros. Earlier data showed that Asia accounted for 84% of ASML’s 2023 revenue.

(Photo credit: istock)

At its previous earnings call in July, Samsung has announced the ambitious goal that its HBM sales would increase three to five times in 2H24. However, as it is still struggling to pass the verification of 12-Hi HBM3e products, the company’s prospects for returning to glory in the near term seems to be rather dim.

According to a report by Korean media outlet ZDNet, the main issue may lie in the core die of HBM, while the adoption of 1a DRAM is hindering Samsung’s recent efforts to supply HBM3e for NVIDIA.

Notably, an insider cited by the report notes that Samsung’s Vice Chairman Jun Young-hyun, the new Head of Device Solutions (DS) Division, is aware of these issues, so the decision for whether to redesign the 1a DRAM or not may be made soon.

According to the report, Samsung began the mass production of 1a (4th generation) DRAM, which has a linewidth of approximately 14 nm, as early as in the second half of 2021. It is worth noting that the company tries to enhance the product’s competitiveness by actively adopting advanced technologies such as EUV (extreme ultraviolet lithography).

ZDNet notes that Samsung applied five EUV layers to its 1a DRAM, which is significantly more than the one layer used by its major competitor, SK hynix.

However, though EUV is advantageous for reducing linewidths compared to the existing ArF (argon fluoride) lithography process, which is supposed to enhance efficiency and thus lowering manufacturing costs, EUV’s high technical difficulty has negatively affected the stability of the process, according to the report.

As a result, the cost of Samsung’s 1a DRAM has not decreased as initially anticipated, according to the report, with the yield issue occurring reportedly hinders Samsung’s HBM3e verification progress with NVIDIA.

Previous reports indicate that Samsung had conducted an on-site inspection with NVIDIA regarding the 8-layer HBM3e products at its Pyeongtaek campus. While the inspection itself concluded without any issues, concerns have reportedly been raised as the data processing speed (Gbps) of Samsung’s 8-layer HBM3e is about 10% lower compared to its rivals, according to sources cited by ZDNet.

Both SK hynix and Micron utilize 1b DRAM for their HBM3e core dies, the report notes.

Therefore, industry insiders cited by ZDNet reveal that Samsung has been internally discussing the possibility of redesigning some of the circuits in its 1a DRAM.

However, If Samsung does proceed with the redesign, it is expected to take at least six months for the product to be completed, the report suggests, which means the mass production could only begin by the second quarter of next year, and it will be challenging to supply the product in a timely manner.

Read more

• [News] Lagging behind SK hynix in HBM, Samsung Plans Significant Year-end Cuts to Chip Executives
• [News] Samsung Rumored to Cut HBM Production Target by 10% by End of 2025 amid HBM3e Delays

(Photo credit: Samsung)

According to TrendForce’s latest memory spot price trend report, regarding DRAM, trading volumes in the spot market continues to fall during China’s National Day Golden Week, while a rebound is unlikely before the year’s end. As for NAND flash, buyers’ reluctance towards procurement has further exacerbated the excessive provision within the market. Details are as follows:

DRAM Spot Price:

It is now China’s National Day Golden Week, so trading volumes in the spot market continues to fall. Furthermore, some module houses are keen to lower their inventory levels, thus pushing spot prices to go down further. The supply-demand dynamics of the spot market remains unchanged, and a rebound is unlikely before the year’s end. The average spot price of mainstream chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) has dropped by 0.26% from US$1.934 last week to US$1.929 this week.

NAND Flash Spot Price:

The spot market was seen with sluggishness in transactions as buyers had not raised their willingness in stocking amidst the National Day holiday of China. Several suppliers are obviously selling their products at lower unit prices this week as sales pressure continues to envelop the entire market, which however has yet to alleviate the overall status, where buyers’ reluctance towards procurement has only further exacerbated the excessive provision within the market. Spot prices of 512Gb TLC wafers have dropped by 0.58% this week, arriving at US$2.595.