According to TrendForce’s latest memory spot price trend report, regarding DRAM, with China’s upcoming National Day holiday and the lack of restocking momentum, the spot market is expected to become quieter in the next two weeks, causing the spot prices continue to slide. As for NAND flash, another wave of inventory reduction has surfaced among module houses. Combined with the relatively high inventory of YMTC, the spot market is surrounded by pressure of sales. Details are as follows:

DRAM Spot Price:

The previously mentioned influx of reball DDR4 and DDR5 chips (from decommissioned modules) is still unabated, and most major module houses are compelled to cut prices due to inventory pressure. With China’s upcoming National Day holiday and the lack of restocking momentum in the earlier period, the spot market is expected to become quieter in the next two weeks. Therefore, spot prices will continue to slide as well. The average spot price of mainstream chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) has fallen by 1.28% from US$ 1.959 last week to US$1.934 this week.

NAND Flash Spot Price:

Another wave of inventory reduction has surfaced among module houses amidst the supposedly peak season, followed by an ongoing decrement of prices, where most sellers equipped with ample stocks are looking to maintain their operations by exchanging their inventory with cash. All the while, YMTC has managed to drop in inventory by rushing to ship out its products to some major module houses at lower prices also due to the pressure aroused by excessive inventory. The spot market is thus lingering amidst pressure of sales. Spot prices of 512Gb TLC wafers have dropped by 3.69% this week, arriving at US$2.610.

Is the winter really coming for the memory sector? Despite an earlier report by Morgan Stanley warning of an AI bubble, U.S. memory giant Micron reveals a financial guidance that beats market expectations, projecting its fiscal first-quarter revenue to reach USD 8.7 billion, higher than an average analyst estimate of USD 8.32 billion, Bloomberg notes.

Meanwhile, Micron expects a significant increase in gross margin to around 39.5%, and an adjusted earnings of USD 1.74 per share, exceeding analysts’ estimates of USD 1.65, according to Reuters.

The growth momentum will mainly rely on the soaring demand for HBM, driven by AI. Earlier in June, Micron noted that its HBM chips have been fully booked for 2024 and 2025.

In terms of the outlook for the overall HBM market, Micron’s view evidently contradicts with that of Morgan Stanley, as it eyes the HBM total available market (TAM) to grow from approximately USD 4 billion in 2023 to over USD 25 billion in 2025.

And the company is making strides in its progress in HBM in the following year. According to its press release, Micron expects its HBM, high-capacity D5 and LP5 solutions, and data center SSD products to deliver multiple billions of dollars in revenue in fiscal 2025.

The U.S. memory giant also expects its HBM market share to commensurate with the company’s overall DRAM market share sometime in 2025.

According to TrendForce, Micron ranked third in DRAM revenue in Q2, 2024, with a market share of 19.6%, after Samsung’s 42.9% and SK hynix’s 34.5%, respectively.

Regarding the latest development on HBM, after its 8-hi HBM3E entered mass production in February, Micron confirms that it has started shipments of production-capable HBM3E 12-hi 36GB units to key industry partners to enable qualifications across the AI ecosystem, stating that its HBM3E 12-hi 36GB delivers 20% lower power consumption than its competitors’ HBM3E 8-hi 24GB solutions while providing 50% higher DRAM capacity.

The company expects to ramp its 12-hi HBM3E in early 2025 and increase the 12-hi mix in the overall shipments throughout the year.

According to a previous report by Tom’s Hardware, the new products are reportedly designed for cutting-edge processors used in AI and high-performance computing (HPC) workloads, including NVIDIA’s H200 and B100/B200 GPUs.

Micron delivered a strong finish to fiscal year 2024, with fiscal Q4 revenue at the high end of its guidance range and gross margins and earnings per share (EPS) above the high end of its guidance ranges.

In fiscal Q4, Micron’s revenue jumped 93% YoY to USD 7.75 billion. Its earnings per share (EPS) came in at USD 1.18, a notable turnaround from the loss of USD 1.07 per share in the same period of 2023. In addition, it achieved record-high revenues in NAND and in its storage business unit.

Micron’s fiscal 2024 revenue grew over 60%, with company gross margins expanding by over 30 percentage points and achieved revenue records in data center and in automotive, according to its press release.

Read more

• [News] Micron’s 12-Hi HBM3e Ready for Production, Targeting NVIDIA’s H200 and B100/ B200 GPUs
• [News] Morgan Stanley Predicts ‘DRAM Winter,’ But TrendForce Remains Less Pessimistic

(Photo credit: Micron)

According to TrendForce’s latest memory spot price trend report, regarding DRAM, reball DDR4 and DDR5 chips stripped from modules continue to flow into the spot market, adversely affecting the market outlook. As for NAND flash, contract prices for 3Q24 have exhibited signs of loosening. Some module houses are even selling their high-priced client SSD at a loss in order to rid inventory and reduce overall losses. Details are as follows:

DRAM Spot Price:

Reball DDR4 and DDR5 chips stripped from modules continue to flow into the spot market. Since prices of reball chips are lower compared with eTT chips and are in good quality, these products are adversely affecting the market outlook. Additionally, facing mounting pressure to sell, some module houses with higher inventory levels have started to cut prices, focusing primarily on clearing their stocks. Overall, the spot market is unlikely to see a significant improvement in the short term. The average spot price of mainstream chips (i.e., 1Gx8 2666MT/s) fell by 0.10% from US$1.964 last week to US$1.962 this week.

NAND Flash Spot Price:

Contract prices for 3Q24 that have exhibited signs of loosening, alongside the market’s reserved attitude on the future prospect, have prompted a rather large degree of truncation among retail and channel markets. Some module houses are even selling their high-priced client SSD at a loss in order to rid inventory and reduce overall losses. This phenomenon is likely to persist until 4Q24. Spot price of 512Gb TLC wafers dropped by 3.73% this week, arriving at US$2.710.

According to TrendForce’s latest memory spot price trend report, neither DRAM nor NAND spot prices show much momentum. Regarding DRAM, spot prices are still falling as Samsung is increasing the amount of reball DDR5 (D1Y) chips that come from decommissioned modules. As for NAND flash, the spot market persists in sluggishness this week, where spot traders are continuously lowering their quotations. Details are as follows:

DRAM Spot Price:

In the spot market, prices are still falling as Samsung is increasing the amount of reball DDR5 (D1Y) chips that come from decommissioned modules. Since these reball chips are second-hand and low-cost products, Samsung can achieve profitability. However, this is leading to a continuous decline in spot prices, thereby affecting confidence across the entire DRAM market and buyers’ sentiment. Most buyers are now cautious and unwilling to actively stock up. The average spot price of the mainstream chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) decreased by 0.10% from US$1.972 last week to US$1.970 this week.

NAND Flash Spot Price:

The spot market for NAND Flash persists in sluggishness this week, where spot traders are continuously lowering their quotations to alleviate their pressure from inventory, though overall transaction dynamics are maintained at a lackluster level without apparent signs of recovery under unimproved end demand. Spot price of 512Gb TLC wafers dropped by 3.45% this week, arriving at US$3.075.

According to a report from Korean media ZDNet Korea, Chinese memory manufacturers like CXMT (Changxin Memory Technologies) are aggressively expanding production, which could negatively affect profitability in the traditional DRAM market. Both Samsung and SK hynix are said to be closely monitoring these developments.

Established in 2016, CXMT has become China’s largest DRAM producer with government backing, focusing on traditional DRAM and preparing to enter the HBM market.

Reportedly, CXMT has rapidly increased its DRAM production capacity, from 70,000 wafers per month in 2022 to 120,000 in 2023, and is projected to reach 200,000 wafers this year.

CXMT’s main products include 17nm and 18nm DDR4 and LPDDR4, with its latest offerings being 12nm DDR5 and LPDDR5X, which the company is also developing. Its aggressive DRAM expansion could negatively impact sales and profits for Korean memory manufacturers.

According to TrendForce’s data, the spot price of 16Gb DDR4 increased from $3 in the second half of 2023 to $3.50 in the first half of this year, before falling back to $3.30 in the second half of 2024.

For DDR5, prices have increased from $4.20 in October 2023 to over $4.50 in the first half of this year, approaching $5 in the second half.

By the end of August, the price premium of DDR5 over DDR4 had surged to 53.9%, up significantly from 36.9% six months earlier.

Per a recent report from Nomura Securities cited by ZDNet Korea, the rapid expansion of Chinese companies is expected to negatively impact the memory industry’s profitability, necessitating preparations for potential disruptions. CXMT’s production now accounts for about 5% of the market, potentially influencing prices.

Read more

• [News] Samsung and SK hynix’s China Revenue Doubled in 1H24, Reportedly Driven by Semiconductor and HBM Demand
• [News] China-US Chip War Escalated as YMTC Sues Micron for Patent Infringement

(Photo credit: CXMT)