Despite facing economic challenges and the impact of high inflation, the flash memory market finds itself in a challenging period. Nevertheless, major DRAM manufacturers continue the pursuit of advanced technology.

For DRAM chips, advanced manufacturing processes mean improved energy efficiency, increased capacity, and an enhanced end-user experience. Currently, in the world of advanced DRAM processes, such as the 10nm class, has reached the fifth generation. Micron refers to it as 1β DRAM, while Samsung calls it 1b DRAM.

Since Micron commenced production of 1β DRAM last October, they have set their sights on producing 1γ DRAM by 2025. This will mark Micron’s first foray into extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography technology, and for now, EUV production is centered in their Taichung facility in Taiwan. Therefore, the 1γ process is expected to kick off production there, with potential expansion to their Japanese facilities in the future. Samsung, on the other hand, plans to enter the 1bnm process stage in 2023, achieving chip capacities ranging from 24Gb (3GB) to 32Gb (4GB) and native speeds of 6.4 to 7.2Gbps.

In the NAND Flash business, the technology has now exceeded the remarkable milestone of 200-layer stacking, with storage manufacturers relentlessly striving for even higher layer counts. On August 9th, SK Hynix showcased the world’s first 321-layer NAND Flash memory sample during the 2023 Flash Memory Summit. This innovation has increased efficiency by 59% compared to the previous 238-layer 512Gb NAND. SK Hynix plans to further refine the 321-layer NAND Flash and intends to commence production in the first half of 2025.

Furthermore, Micron has ambitious plans beyond 232 layers, with products like 2YY, 3XX, and 4XX on the horizon. Kioxia and Western Digital are also actively exploring 3D NAND technology with more than 300, 400, and 500 layers. Samsung is planning to introduce the ninth generation of 3D NAND in 2024, possibly featuring 280 layers, followed by the tenth generation in 2025-2026, potentially reaching 430 layers. Their ultimate goal is to achieve 1000-layer NAND Flash by 2030.

(Image: SK Hynix)

Source to UDN, the DRAM market has been buzzing with positive developments lately, and may get a chance to see an upturn by the end of the year. Among the key factors driving this optimism is the DDR5 specification DRAM, which is poised to capitalize on opportunities in AI servers and laptops next year, gradually increasing demand.

After more than a year of corrections, the DRAM market is finally showing signs of improvement. Major DRAM manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix are still reducing production capacity, but their focus is primarily on DDR4 specification DRAM. Industry sources suggest that Samsung, in response to the growing demand for DDR5 DRAM, is set to significantly ramp up DDR5 production in the fourth quarter of this year, anticipating strong order demand next year.

In fact, such as Intel and AMD are planning to introduce new platforms next year that will support DDR5 specification DRAM, indicating a gradual decline in DDR4 demand. Beyond the consumer market, the server market is expected to experience a substantial surge in DDR5 demand, driven by the imminent launch of Intel’s fifth-generation server platform, Emerald Rapids, which fully supports DDR5. As AI server demand gains momentum, DDR5 demand is poised to enter a high-growth phase.

(Source: https://money.udn.com/money/story/5612/7488629 ; Image credit: Micron)

DRAM Spot Market

In the spot market, prices have been rising noticeably in the recent period, and demand has also rebounded marginally. Also, because the supply of rebelled used chips has shrunk slightly, price hikes have been most significant for chips belonging to the bottom of the price range. On the other hand, spot buyers have become somewhat hesitant in the past two or so days because the price hikes are too rapid. They are now less willing to accept higher prices than before. Since the overall demand for DRAM products has yet to turn around, spot prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. The average spot price of the mainstream chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) rose by 0.13% from US$1.498 last week to US$1.500 this week.

NAND Flash Spot Market

A price increase is seen among finished products, including memory cards, USB flash drives, and eMMC, from the spot market recently due to the diminished supply of wafers, which resulted in a significant rebound in spot quotations for NAND Flash. With that being said, buyers are not all that willing to follow up with the corresponding prices that had a significant jump within a short period and have slightly stagnated in procurement. 512Gb TLC wafer spots have climbed at 3.96% this week, arriving at US$1.757.

Due to factors such as high inflation, sluggish demand in the consumer electronics sector, and other influences, the memory market has experienced a downturn. Major manufacturers like Kioxia and Micron began reducing capacity in the fourth quarter of the previous year, and in 2023, Samsung announced its entry into the production reduction trend. However, as market demand continues to weaken, the memory market in 2023 has yet to show signs of recovery, with prices continuing to decline and manufacturers facing operational pressure.

In this context, some memory manufacturers are hoping to stabilize prices and rebalance market supply and demand by continuing to reduce production.

According to reports from Taiwan’s media The Commercial Times,” DRAM manufacturer Nanya Technology is following the footsteps of major players by adjusting production capacity, lowering utilization rates, flexibly adjusting product portfolios and capex, and dynamically adapting to customer demands and market changes to cope with the weak market conditions. It is expected that production capacity will be adjusted dynamically, with reductions of up to 20%.

Previously, TrendForce’s research showed that due to DRAM suppliers initiating production cuts one after another, overall DRAM supply bits have decreased quarter by quarter. Coupled with seasonal demand support, this has eased the pressure on supplier inventories. It is expected that the price decline in the third quarter for DRAM will converge to around 0-5%. However, due to the fact that supplier inventories remain high throughout the year, there is still significant pressure for DRAM prices to bottom out and rebound, with the actual stabilization and recovery likely to occur in 2024.

As for NAND Flash, recent surveys by TrendForce indicate that, in response to the continued weakening demand, Samsung has announced an increase in production cuts starting from September, with reductions mainly focused on processes below 128 layers. Other suppliers are expected to follow suit and expand production cuts in the fourth quarter to accelerate inventory reduction.

As NAND Flash manufacturers expand their production cut efforts, TrendForce estimates that NAND Flash prices in the fourth quarter are expected to remain stable or see a slight increase, with an estimated increase of approximately 0-5%. However, if the upward trend in NAND Flash prices is to continue into 2024, it will still rely on sustained production reductions, as well as the observation of whether Enterprise SSD purchase orders will see a significant resurgence.

(Photo credit: Micron)

DRAM Spot Market
Spot prices of chips in the lower price range have started to elevate this week as some NAND Flash suppliers are very committed to raising their spot prices. On the whole, there has been some stabilization of DRAM spot prices, and the overall volume of spot transactions has also increased a bit. Looking ahead in the short term, it remains to be seen whether suppliers’ ongoing production cuts will spur buyers to stock up. However, spot prices are expected to remain mostly flat until the end of this year. The average spot price of the mainstream chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) rose by 0.28% from US$1.450 last week to US$1.454 this week.

NAND Flash Spot Market

Buyers, concerned over the cessation of low prices, are continuously proposing order inquiries, though they are hesitant towards following up on prices and hoarding inventory during actual transactions. Continuity of transaction dynamics is not apparent in the spot market, where several packaged dies are seeing repeated fluctuations. Compared to the panicked purchases over the past several weeks, buyers have now composed themselves, and are deciding on procurements based on the recovery of demand. Wafer remains as the category with a clearer inflation tendency, where 512Gb TLC wafer spots have climbed 2.02% in the spot market this week, arriving at US$1.620.