The leading Dutch semiconductor equipment company ASML has reportedly predicted continued strong demand from Chinese customers, with approximately 20% of the company’s backlog attributed to them.

According to reports from Reuters and CNBC, ASML CEO Peter Wennink stated during the first-quarter (January-March) earnings call on April 17th that discussions are ongoing between the Dutch and U.S. governments regarding national security concerns.

In October 2023, the U.S. Department of Commerce expanded its export control regulations on China, with the new provisions taking effect from November 2023.

These regulations specifically restrict the Dutch company ASML from selling certain immersion Deep Ultraviolet (DUV) lithography equipment to Chinese facilities engaged in advanced semiconductor manufacturing. Consequently, Chinese customers turned to purchasing mature process equipment in large quantities, leading to nearly 2 consecutive months of surge in China’s equipment import at that time.

As per information disclosed by ASML during its earnings call, it is currently able to continue serving Chinese customers who have already installed its equipment.

ASML’s CFO Roger Dassen further indicated that Chinese customers account for approximately 20% of the company’s backlog orders. He noted that Chinese chip manufacturers are expanding their production for mature processes, with these chips falling outside the export restrictions of the United States and its allies, primarily used in appliances like refrigerators, phones, toys, and automobiles.

Dassen noted that demand from China is robust due to their expansion of production capacity. As a result, China’s global market share is expected to grow larger in the coming years, leading to increased self-sufficiency compared to the present.

Per ASML’s financial report, during Q1, machine revenue from the Taiwan and South Korean markets decreased from the previous quarter’s 13% and 25% to 6% and 19%, respectively. In contrast, machine revenue from the Chinese market increased significantly from 39% to 49%.

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(Photo credit: ASML)

As TSMC’s earnings call approaches on April 18th, according to a source cited in a report from Commercial Times, it has predicted a downturn in the smartphone industry as it enters a slow season. However, TSMC is reportedly benefiting from AI demand, bolstering its operations through HPC (High-Performance Computing). Additionally, the increasing revenue share from the 3nm process is expected to contribute positively to performance in the second quarter.

TSMC has issued updates for three consecutive days, indicating that the overall recovery rate of its fabs has exceeded 80%. They reiterated their annual performance outlook from January’s earnings call, forecasting revenue growth in the low-to-mid twenties percentage range for the full year. Notably, in the fourth quarter of last year, the revenue share from high-performance computing matched that of smartphones, both reaching 43%, serving as dual engines for operational growth.

The same report, citing sources, indicates that TSMC’s advanced process technology and yield rates lead the industry, making it the primary foundry choice for most global customers.

Based on overall market share, TrendForce’s latest report reveals that in 2023, global foundry revenues hit US$117.47 billion, with TSMC capturing a dominant 60% share. This figure is expected to climb to around $131.65 billion in 2024, increasing TSMC’s share to 62%. It is also estimated in the report from Commercial Times that TSMC holds a market share of approximately 70-80% in 5nm technology, and this is expected to exceed 90% for 3nm, covering nearly all major players in the market.

TSMC has also emphasized that besides traditional smartphone applications, High-Performance Computing (HPC) is becoming an increasingly important application for their advanced processes. This means that even during the second quarter when demand for smartphone chips is typically lower, it will be supported by HPC demand.

The current major AI accelerators such as NVIDIA’s A100 and H100 GPUs, AMD’s Instinct MI250 and MI300, are all manufactured utilizing TSMC’s 7nm or 5nm nodes, highlighting TSMC’s critical position in the AI industry. Reportedly, as demand for AI-based Generative AI (AIGC) continues to rise, TSMC’s production volume is also expected to increase accordingly.

According to the same report citing sources, TSMC’s utilization rate for its 3nm production remains high and unaffected despite the impact of the recent earthquake on its facilities. TSMC has emphasized that key machines used for advanced processes, including all Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV), were undamaged.

However, in areas where the shaking was more severe, certain production lines are expected to require longer adjustments and calibration to restore automated production. TSMC is conducting a comprehensive review of the impact of this earthquake while maintaining close communication with its customers.

Furthermore, TSMC’s biggest challenge at the moment is how to catch up with customer expansion demands.

The most lacking capacity currently is in CoWoS production. Although TSMC maintains its stance of doubling capacity compared to 2023, market estimates cited in the report indicate that TSMC’s capacity is expected to increase from around 13,000 wafers to 30,000-35,000 wafers. This aligns with what founder Morris Chang described—AI chip demand in the future will no longer be in the tens or hundreds of thousands of wafers but will require the capacity of 3, 5, or even 10 fabs.

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(Photo credit: TSMC)

Despite Western chip equipment export bans, China reportedly has imported 32 lithography systems from the Netherlands in Jan-Feb 2024, marking a 256.1% YoY growth.

According to China Customs data, Jan-Feb 2024 imports from the Netherlands totaled USD 1.057 billion, up 256.1% YoY, but down 44.8% QoQ, with 32 systems imported. January saw USD 666 million imports, up 522% YoY, down 41% QoQ, with 20 systems; February recorded USD 390 million imports, up 105.9% YoY, down 41.4% QoQ, with 12 systems.

From the data, it’s evident that in 2024, China’s imports of lithography systems from the Netherlands saw significant growth compared to the same period last year, but a noticeable decline from the previous quarter. In the first two months, China’s imports of exposure machines from the Netherlands decreased by 44.8% compared to December last year.

Per a report from IJIWEI, the average price of lithography systems imported from the Netherlands to China has increased from USD 10 million per unit since May last year to USD 30 million per unit. As of the first two months of 2024, the average price remains above USD 30 million.

According to a report by China’s Media outlet ICsmart, in terms of imports based on domestic registration locations, from January to February 2024, a total of 9 provinces and cities imported lithography systems. The top 5 importers were Shanghai (USD 303 million), Beijing (USD 145 million), Shandong (USD 131 million), Sichuan (USD 131 million), and Guangdong (USD 117 million), accounting for 28.7%, 13.8%, 12.4%, 12.4%, and 11.1% respectively, totaling 78.4%.

In June 2023, the Netherlands announced restrictions on the export of chip manufacturing equipment. According to relevant export regulations, it became difficult for Chinese companies to obtain export licenses starting from January 1, 2024.

Thus, since the second half of 2023, there has been explosive growth in the amount of exposure machines imported from the Netherlands. As per a previous report from South China Morning Post, in November 2023, China witnessed a remarkable 1050% surge in the import value of crucial chip manufacturing lithography equipment from the Netherlands.

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(Photo credit: ASML)

In June 2023, leading processor manufacturer Intel reached an agreement with the German federal government, announcing the signing of an amended investment memorandum. The plan involves investing over EUR 30 billion to construct two new fabs in Magdeburg. The German federal government has agreed to provide a subsidy of EUR 10 billion, including incentives and subsidies from the European Chips Act and government initiatives.

According to a report by Tom’s Hardware citing sources, Intel has submitted conceptual drawings for a new fab in Germany. The initial plans include two fabs, designated as Fab 29.1 and Fab 29.2, equipped with the world’s most advanced semiconductor tools.

Moreover, Intel reportedly has ample space for up to six additional fabs. The first batch of two fabs is expected to commence operations in the fourth quarter of 2027, with both the Intel 14A (1.4nm) and Intel 10A (1nm) advanced processes believed to be part of the plan.

As per previous reports from TechNews, Intel has not disclosed any details regarding the 10A node, but it promises at least double-digit improvements in power consumption and performance. Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger has previously stated that new processes typically improve critical dimensions by approximately 14% to 15%. Therefore, it is plausible that the 10A and 14A nodes will also experience similar improvements.

Source: Intel

As per Intel’s roadmap, Intel 14A is also optimized in 2027, so it seems that 10A falls between 14A and 14A-E.

The report from Tom’s Hardware further indicates that Fab 29.1 and Fab 29.2, the two three-story buildings, occupy approximately 81,000 square meters, with a total length of 530 meters and a width of 153 meters. Each floor has a height ranging from 5.7 to 6.5 meters. Including the roof structure for air conditioning and heating, the building reaches a height of 36.7 meters.

The High-NA EUV exposure machines are installed on the second floor with a height of 6.5 meters, while the upper and lower floors are used for material logistics, providing necessary resources such as water, electricity, and chemicals.

ASML models that the 1st generation of the High-NA-enabled production node will employ between 4 to 9 High-NA EUV exposures and a total of 20 to 30 EUV exposures, encompassing both Low-NA and High-NA.

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(Photo credit: Intel)

ASML, a key chipmaking equipment supplier, is reported to have its incoming CEO, Christophe Fouquet, visiting Taiwan soon. According to Commercial Times citing from supply chain sources, it’s suggested that he will meet with TSMC and other related suppliers to discuss next-generation EUV equipment.

In 2008, Christophe Fouquet joined ASML, holding various management positions. He currently serves as Executive Vice President and Chief Business Officer. In April, he will succeed CEO Peter Wennink, who has held the position since July 2013, upon Wennink’s retirement at the completion of his term.

The high-level visit from ASML’s management to TSMC raises questions about whether it pertains to potential orders for the new “High-NA EUV” (High Numerical Aperture Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography System). TSMC has yet to confirm this, but the company is exploring various possibilities, including investments in advanced packaging.

Industry sources indicate that the cost of High-NA EUV exceeds USD 300 million. Considering the cost-effectiveness balance, TSMC is not in a hurry to adopt it. The primary reason is the imminent need to establish a plant in the United States. It is estimated that future capital expenditures will significantly lean towards expanding production facilities overseas.

Under the U.S. chip export restrictions, ASML halted the shipment of EUV equipment to China in 2019. Under continued pressure from the U.S., the company recently canceled some shipments of Deep Ultraviolet Lithography equipment (DUV) to China.

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(Photo credit: ASML)