Following an eight-month anti-subsidy investigation, the EU announced on June 12th that it will increase the temporary tariff rate on all Chinese electric vehicle companies from the current 10% to as high as 38.1%. According to a report from CNBC, the European Commission warned that if an agreement on automotive production capacity with China cannot be reached, the new tariffs will be implemented around July 4th.

Per the same report, the European Commission has announced the latest tariff rates, imposing additional tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers BYD, Geely, and SAIC Group at rates of 17.4%, 20%, and 38.1%, respectively.

Other companies cooperating with the investigation will be subject to a 21% tariff, while non-cooperating companies will face tariffs as high as 38.1%. American automotive giant Tesla’s electric vehicles produced in China will be subject to a separate tariff rate following the investigation.

As per another report from BBC cited by Commercial Times, nearly 50% of the electric vehicles exported from China to the EU are from Western car brands such as Tesla, Volkswagen, and BMW, with Tesla alone accounting for about 40%. In contrast, the annual sales of Chinese electric vehicle brands in Europe are less than 200,000 units, with a market share of less than 8%, mainly represented by BYD, SAIC Group (which owns the European brand MG), and Geely.

Per a report from the Global Times on June 12th, China’s Ministry of Commerce strongly reacted, expressing discontent on the matter. China, reportedly, will closely monitor the EU’s subsequent actions and take all necessary measures to firmly defend the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers also expressed deep regret and stated that the decision is absolutely unacceptable.

Although the EU has decided to impose high tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, there are still differing opinions among various parties. The German government and automotive industry have reacted most strongly, fearing it could ignite a China-EU trade war.

As per a report from Barron’s, German Transport Minister Volker Wissing stated that, “The European Commission’s punitive tariffs hit German companies and their top products. Cars must become cheaper through more competition, open markets and significantly better business conditions in the EU, not through trade war and market isolation.”

Per a report from Reuters, BMW Group Chairman Oliver Zipse stated that the European Commission’s decision to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles is a wrong way to go. Volkswagen expressed that the European Commission’s decision detrimental to the current weak demand for BEV vehicles in Germany and Europe.

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• [News] EU Reportedly Delays Decision on Imposing Tariffs on Chinese Electric Cars
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(Photo credit: Pixabay)

The European Commission initiated an investigation into Chinese electric cars in October last year, targeting BYD, SAIC Group and Geely, with plans to impose provisional tariffs on new electric cars imported from China. According to previous media reports, the plans were originally scheduled to be announced by June 5th. However, as per Reuters citing sources in a latest report, the new date for announcing the imposition of temporary tariffs has been set for June 10th, after the European Parliament election.

The sources cited in the report also mentioned that the delay was due to last-minute technical issues with the documents. As of now, the European Commission has not provided comments on this matter.

Yet, the same report further noted that the European Commission has formally warned the three Chinese electric car companies under anti-subsidy investigation that the data they provided for the investigation was insufficient.

According to trade data from 2023, for every additional 10% tariff imposed by the European Union on top of the existing 10%, Chinese electric car exporters would lose approximately $1 billion.

Reuters reported that past subsidy investigations launched by the European Union on other products imported from China resulted in additional tariffs ranging from approximately 9% to 26% for related companies, while the tariffs on the Chinese electric car companies may possbly fall between this range.

The report also indicated that China may be preparing alternative plans for future negotiations. If enough EU members oppose the temporary tariffs after four months, there might be challenges to the EU’s temporary tariffs, possibly leading to their cancellation.

According to an earlier analysis by Trendforce, with China’s subsidies gradually phasing out and the increasing market penetration of NEVs in the country, the growth rate of China’s NEV market is starting to slow. This, coupled with the growing demand for electric vehicles in overseas markets, is prompting numerous Chinese automotive brands to expand internationally. But they may have to counter various challenges, as countervailing duty investigation being one of them.

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(Photo credit: Pixabay)

On May 14, 2024, the US administration announced that it would increase tariffs on Chinese new energy vehicles from 25% to 100%. Additionally, tariffs will be imposed on Chinese products such as batteries, chips, medical supplies, and critical mineral raw materials, affecting an estimated total value of USD 18 billion in Chinese imports.

The United States believes that China’s substantial state subsidies and excess production capacity allow Chinese products to penetrate the European and American markets at low costs.

TrendForce Insights:

1. Impact of Tariff Increase on Chinese Electric Car Imports in the US Market Is Minimal

According to sales statistics from the first quarter of 2023 to the first quarter of 2024 in the US electric car market, only Geely, among the Chinese electric car groups actively operating in the US market, holds a market share of merely 2%.

By the first quarter of 2024, this share had further declined to just 1%. In fact, Chinese automakers, anticipating such measures, have already shifted their focus away from the US market to regions such as Europe, Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Russia. Therefore, the current increase in tariffs is expected to have minimal impact on China’s new energy car industry.

2. Consumers Focus on Electric Car Prices, Not Nationality

The affordability of Chinese electric cars stems from China’s long-standing high level of self-sufficiency in the entire electric vehicle supply chain, from complete vehicles to components, especially in the battery sector, which accounts for the highest proportion of total vehicle costs.

Coupled with government subsidy policies aimed at attracting consumers to purchase electric cars and increasing the overall market size, this further enhances the cost advantage of various components.

Additionally, according to data released by Gallup in April 2024, only 36% of people with an annual income below USD 40,000 would seriously consider purchasing an electric car, while those with incomes between USD 40,000 and USD 100,000 or more have a purchase intention of 45-50%.

Therefore, the high cost of electric cars remains the primary reason why consumers are currently unwilling to switch to electric cars, rather than being a matter of the car’s “nationality.”

3. Is the Decoupling Strategy for Electric Vehicles from China a Cure or a Poison?

The US administration’s decision to increase tariffs can protect the US fossil fuel car industry in the short term. With consumers unable to access cheap Chinese electric cars, they may opt for US fossil fuel cars.

While this measure may prolong the life of the US automotive industry chain, it could hinder both US and global carbon reduction goals and reduce the international competitiveness of US car manufacturers in the electric vehicle sector. 

Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares has stated that increasing tariffs will not truly protect his company, and the only option is to continue fighting. Therefore, while higher tariffs serve as a protective shield for the domestic automotive industry chain, car manufacturers ultimately still need to face the harsh reality of global market competition.

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The global electric vehicle market has begun to show signs of saturation, affecting the battery supply chain. According to a report from Korean media Maeil Business, in response to the downturn in battery demand, South Korea’s SK Group holding company, SK Innovation, intends to sell its subsidiary SK IE Technology (SKIET) to raise funds and strengthen its financial position.

The report cited sources, indicating that SK Innovation is actively seeking investors for capital injection and has begun negotiations. Additionally, the possibility of selling its battery material subsidiary, SKIET, may not be ruled out as a consideration to obtain cash for flexible use, in response to the shrinking appetite in the battery market.

As per a report from MoneyDJ, SK Innovation holds a 61.2% stake in SKIET, valued at KRW 2.5 trillion (approximately USD 1.8 billion).

Industry sources further pointed out that SK Innovation’s decision to sell SKIET is primarily driven by the need for additional funds to expand its electric vehicle battery business under SK On, including the expansion of its battery factories in the United States, according to the aforementioned reports.

Reportedly, SK On anticipates capital expenditures of KRW 7.5 trillion this year. However, the sources believe that whether SK Innovation can find a buyer for SKIET remains to be seen, given SKIET’s poor performance.

SK On’s clients include well-known automakers such as Ford, Volkswagen, and Hyundai. However, in a high-interest-rate environment, global electric vehicle sales have stalled, leading SK On to incur a significant operating loss of KRW 332 billion in the first quarter, far exceeding the KRW 18.6 billion loss in the previous quarter.

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(Photo credit: SK Innovation)

According to sources cited in a report from Bloomberg, the US administration is expected to announce its decisions on tariffs for imported goods from China as early as next week. The tariff decision is anticipated to target key strategic industries, including electric cars, The tariff decision is anticipated to target key strategic industries, such as electric cars, and will reject the across-the-board hikes sought by previous policies.

Bloomberg further indicates that the latest tariff decision is the culmination of a review of the final outcome of the so-called Section 301 tariffs, which were initially implemented during the previous US administration starting in 2018.

The US government is now preparing to impose targeted new tariffs on key industries such as electric cars, batteries, and solar cells. The full decision statement is expected to largely maintain existing tariffs.

Two sources cited by the report stated that the US government plans to announce this tariff policy next Tuesday. The full details are currently unclear.

Regarding this matter, the White House has declined to comment.

Besides the rumored new tariffs, per an announcement of the US government, it indicated that the US government would triple the tariff rate on steel and aluminum imports from China. The US believes it is necessary to strengthen countermeasures against products overcapacity and non-market investments from the Chinese government.

The punitive tariff rate was previously at 15%. In 2020, during the administration of the previous government, it decreased to 7.5% after the US-China trade negotiations reached an agreement. If the rate triples, it will approach the highest level of punitive tariffs, nearly 25%.

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