U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo recently stated that chips used by the Chinese company Huawei in their earlier Mate 60 Pro smartphone are not as advanced as those produced in the United States.

According to a report from Reuters, Huawei has been under trade restrictions since 2019, surprised the global industry and the U.S. government in August 2023 by unveiling a new smartphone featuring advanced chips. Despite Washington’s ongoing efforts to weaken China’s capabilities in advanced semiconductor research and production, the Huawei Mate 60 Pro is still regarded as a symbol of technological breakthrough in China.

Following the release of the chips used in the Mate 60 Pro, many believed that Gina Raimondo’s efforts to restrict Chinese semiconductors were futile. However, Gina Raimondo recently refuted this viewpoint. She pointed out that the new chips introduced by Huawei are not as capable and lag behind U.S. chips by several years in performance, indicating that U.S. export controls on China are effective.

The same report indicates that Washington has been striving for years to weaken China’s capabilities in advanced chip production and the manufacture of equipment required for these chips. The concern is that these chips could be used to enhance China’s military capabilities, with Huawei being a key player.

Therefore, after Huawei was placed on the U.S. government’s Entity List for export control in 2019, related U.S. suppliers struggled to obtain licenses to ship goods to Huawei. Notably, the sources cited in the report cited by Reuters on March 12th once stated that Intel’s competitor, AMD, had applied for a similar license to sell comparable chips in early 2021 but did not receive approval from the US Department of Commerce.

Nevertheless, Intel has been granted licenses worth billions of dollars to continue selling products to Huawei. Additionally, Huawei has also launched its first artificial intelligence notebook featuring Intel chips this month, leading to further controversies. Moreover, as per reports from The Register, Intel is reportedly preparing to follow in NVIDIA’s footsteps by developing “special edition” versions of its AI acceleration chips, Gaudi 3, for the Chinese market.

When asked if the White House’s stance on business with China is tough enough, Gina Raimondo emphasized the need for accountability from companies and everyone alike. She acknowledged that it wasn’t popular with suppliers when she told them they couldn’t sell semiconductor products to China, but ultimately she made that decision.

The emergence of the new generation of Huawei smartphones has also prompted the US administration to conduct dismantling reviews and gain insights into the technology details behind the chips, which are the most advanced semiconductors produced by China to date. However, few details about the related review have been disclosed.

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According to a report by the South China Morning Post on April 18th, encouraged by official support and continuous industry investment in expansion, China’s total chip production in the first quarter of 2024 reportedly surged by 40% to reach 98.1 billion units. This further highlights China’s shift towards ramping up mature processes in semiconductor development, especially amidst the export restrictions. Additionally, chip production capacity is rapidly expanding.

Recent data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics shows that chip production grew by 28.4% in March alone, reaching a record high of 36.2 billion units.

Reportedly, the substantial growth in chip production in China is partly attributed to strong demand from downstream industries such as new energy vehicles. Data shows that in the full year of 2023, China’s production of new energy vehicles reached 9.587 million units, a year-on-year increase of 35.8%. In the first quarter of this year, the production of new energy vehicles increased by 29.2% to 2.08 million units. Additionally, in the first quarter of this year, China’s smartphone production increased by 16.7%.

In recent years, with semiconductor plants emerging across various regions, China’s chip production capacity has been continuously expanding. The chip production volume in the first three months of this year is nearly double that of the same period in 2019.

The International Semiconductor Industry Association (SEMI) released a global fab forecast report at the end of last year, indicating that China’s share of global semiconductor capacity will continue to expand, attributed to local government funding injections and other incentive measures. Chinese chip manufacturers may add 18 new fabs in 2024, with wafer annual capacity rising from 7.6 million units in 2023 to 8.6 million units this year.

A report from the American think tank, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), also noted that due to U.S. restrictions on advanced chip technology and equipment to China, new investment projects in China’s semiconductor production are focusing on mature process chips.

Data from TrendForce indicates that China’s fabs hits 77, mainly targeting on the mature process.

Researchers cited in the report suggest that the unintended consequence of U.S. export controls on advanced chip technology to China may result in a wave of state-supported investments, leading to overproduction and potentially allowing China to dominate global traditional chip production.

The same reports also indicate that despite China’s strong push for chip self-sufficiency, the country still heavily relies on chip imports. Data from the General Administration of Customs of China shows that in the first quarter of this year, chip imports to China increased by 12.7% year-on-year, reaching 121.5 billion units, while chip exports grew modestly by 3% to 62.4 billion units. Chips remained China’s largest imported commodity in 2023, surpassing crude oil.

However, it’s important to note that a significant portion of the chips imported into China are designed by Chinese chip design firms but manufactured by overseas foundries.

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The US Department of Commerce has added leading Chinese solution provider Sitonholy, who primarily sells processors from Intel and NVIDIA, to its Entity List. This inclusion on the Entity List undoubtedly impacts Sitonholy but also has significant implications for American companies like Intel and NVIDIA.

According to reports from the South China Morning Post and Reuters, Sitonholy sells hardware based on Intel and NVIDIA technologies and also provides cloud services. As a result, US companies engaging in business with Sitonholy require export licenses from the Department of Commerce, but these license applications are presumed to be denied during the review process.

This development is a significant blow to Sitonholy and American companies alike. Kevin Kurland, a US export enforcement official, stated during a hearing of the US Senate subcommittee that the US government has placed four Chinese companies on an export blacklist for assisting the Chinese military in obtaining AI chips. The four Chinese companies are Linkzol Technology, Xi’an Like Innovative Information Technology, Beijing Anwise Technology, and Sitonholy.

A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson criticized the United States for unfairly targeting Chinese companies through export controls and demanded that the US stop politicizing trade and technology issues.

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According to a report from Nikkei Asia, Chinese tech giant Huawei is building a semiconductor equipment research and development center in Shanghai to navigate U.S. export controls and strengthen its chip supply chain.

As per the same report from Nikkei Asia, Huawei is offering salaries double that of its competitors to recruit experienced talent. However, industry sources cited by the same report suggest that Huawei’s demanding work culture may make retaining talent challenging, despite the attractive pay.

The report further highlights the center’s crucial role in developing photolithography machines, essential for advanced chip production. U.S. export controls have made it difficult for Huawei to access such equipment, which is primarily manufactured by three global leaders: ASML from the Netherlands, Nikon, and Canon from Japan.

Sources cited in the report has revealed that Huawei’s new research center is located in the western Qingpu district of Shanghai, featuring spacious grounds housing the main chip development center and the new headquarters of HiSilicon, Huawei’s semiconductor design division.

The area also hosts wireless technology and smartphone development centers. As per the Qingpu District People’s Government in Shanghai, once completed, the park will accommodate over 35,000 high-tech workers.

To attract talent, Huawei reportedly offers salaries twice that of local chip manufacturers. Industry sources cited in the report further noted that Huawei has recruited engineers with experience collaborating with top global semiconductor equipment manufacturers like Applied Materials, Lam Research, KLA, and ASML. Engineers with over 15 years of experience at chip manufacturers such as TSMC, Intel, and Micron are also on Huawei’s potential recruitment list.

The export control measures implemented by the United States in recent years have made it more difficult for Chinese citizens to work for global chip companies in China. This has left Huawei and other Chinese semiconductor enterprises with a larger pool of top chip talent to choose from.

Regarding the matter, TrendForce has addressed the export restrictions on semiconductor equipment by the US and its allies present significant hurdles for Chinese foundries in obtaining essential tools. To counter these challenges, the Chinese government, alongside local suppliers, is intensifying R&D efforts to produce domestic semiconductor equipment, especially for 16/12nm processes and smaller.

This has led to increased collaboration between Chinese foundries and local suppliers in both R&D and qualification processes. Despite these efforts, China’s progress in lithography tools is limited to the 90nm node, which remains a significant obstacle in achieving complete self-sufficiency in semiconductor equipment.

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The demand for Dutch semiconductor equipment manufacturer ASML serves as a trend indicator for the industry. The company optimistically stated in its annual report that the chip industry has hit rock bottom and is beginning to show signs of recovery. However, it also cautioned that geopolitical tensions and the potential expansion of US export controls on China remain operational risks.

ASML’s Chief Financial Officer, Roger Dassen, stated in the annual report for 2023 released on the 14th, “We believe that the market has now reached the lowest point of the dip, and although we cannot predict the exact nature of the slope ahead, the recovery is nascent.”

He further pointed out, “The longer-term trends are unmistakable – artificial intelligence, electrification, and the energy transition are happening,” which bodes well for ASML’s business.

However, the ASML annual report mentioned, “The list of Chinese entities impacted by export control restrictions has increased since 2022,” and “The list of restricted customers and the scope of the restrictions were subject to change.”

According to TrendForce’s analysis, while Chinese semiconductor fabs will be unable to purchase NXT:2000i series tools and newer from 2024 onwards, they will still have access to older models like the NXT1980i. This allows them to continue expanding their capacity for manufacturing processes of 28nm and above.

In last month’s financial report announcement, ASML indicated that it anticipates export controls from both the United States and the Netherlands to result in a decrease of approximately 10% to 15% in sales of its mid-range DUV equipment to China this year.

Regarding the 2023 record of ASML’s DUV sales, Dassen also explained in the interview accompanying the financial report that the strong performance in China’s business in 2023 actually stemmed from orders placed at the end of 2022, with the execution of these orders taking place in 2023.

In 2023, China surpassed South Korea to become ASML’s second-largest market, accounting for 26.3% of sales, while Taiwan maintained its leading position with sales accounting for 29.3%.

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