According to data released by the U.S. Census Bureau on October 17, U.S. retail sales remained strong in September. Retail sales increased by 0.4% month-over-month, exceeding both the previous month’s 0.1% growth and the market expectation of 0.3%.

Breaking down the details, 10 out of 13 major retail categories showed growth. The largest contributor was grocery store sales, which saw a 4.0% month-over-month increase, up 3.7 percentage points from the previous period. The next largest growth was seen in clothing sales, which rose by 1.5%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points from the prior month. On the downside, sales declined in categories such as furniture stores, electronics and appliance stores, and gas stations.

Core retail sales, excluding autos and gas stations, increased by 0.7% month-over-month, higher than the previous month’s 0.3%. The control group for core retail sales also posted a 0.7% increase, up from 0.3% in the previous period.

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Overall, consumer spending in the U.S. remains robust. According to a Federal Reserve research, this strength is likely being driven by higher spending among middle- and upper-income groups.

The report noted that during the pandemic, loose monetary policy and subsequent government subsidies boosted the spending power of all income groups, especially lower-income households. However, since mid-2021, spending patterns have diverged. Middle- and upper-income groups have been able to maintain or even increase their average real spending, while lower-income groups have seen a decline. As of August 2024, average spending by higher-income groups had grown by 16.7%, while lower-income groups saw only a 7.9% increase.

(Source: Federal Reserve, TrendForce) 

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) continued to decline in September, according to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on October 10. The year-over-year CPI growth rate was 2.4%, down 0.1% from the previous month. Although slightly above the market expectation of 2.3%, it remains the lowest level since February 2021. The month-over-month increase was 0.2%, unchanged from the previous month and slightly higher than the market forecast of 0.1%.

Core CPI rose by 3.3% year-over-year, marginally exceeding both the previous month’s figure and market expectations of 3.2%.

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The monthly increase was primarily driven by rising prices in apparel, medical services, and transportation services. On a positive note, the rent and owners’ equivalent rent, which have been key factors slowing the CPI decline, showed signs of easing. On a year-over-year basis, rent inflation grew by 4.8% (down from 5.0% in the prior month), while owners’ equivalent rent increased by 5.2% (down from 5.4%), both continuing their gradual deceleration.

(Source: BLS, TrendForce)

Additionally, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the latest weekly jobless claims. Initial claims reached 258,000, an increase of 33,000 from the previous week, while continued claims rose to 1,861,000, up by 42,000 from the prior month. Despite the rise in claims, the numbers remain within a healthy range, indicating that the labor market is still in balance.

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Following the release of this data, market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts remained unchanged, with projections for two cuts this year and four more in 2024.

The Fed announced a 50-basis-point rate cut last week, sparking expectations of further rate reductions and driving gold prices to new highs. On the 23rd, gold prices surged to an all-time high.

On September 23, gold futures on the COMEX, the world’s largest gold futures exchange, soared to a record high of $2,653 per ounce. This marks a roughly 30% increase in gold prices compared to the start of the year, with prices setting new records throughout the year.

Following the Fed’s announcement of a 50-basis-point cut in the benchmark interest rate last week, both spot and futures gold prices, which were already on an upward trend, reached new historic highs. In addition, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have further fueled gold’s rally.

The decline in interest rates is likely to support continued increases in gold prices, and market expectations that the Fed will maintain its rate-cutting pace suggest that gold prices may continue to grow in the near future.

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The Federal Reserve held its FOMC meeting on September 18, announcing a 50-basis point cut to the federal funds rate, lowering it to a range of 4.75% to 5%. In its post-meeting statement, the Fed noted that the labor market had shifted from moderate growth to a slowdown, and its confidence in inflation returning to the target range had strengthened. Given the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook and the balance of risks, the Fed decided to initiate a rate-cutting cycle, lowering rates by 50 basis points to support the U.S. job market.

In its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the Fed slightly revised down its 2024 economic growth forecast from 2.1% to 2.0%. It also raised the unemployment rate forecast from 4.0% to 4.4%, with unemployment expected to peak in 2025. Core inflation is projected to rise from 2.6% in June to 2.8%, with expectations for it to fall back to the target range by 2026.

The median of the Fed’s dot plot indicates that, assuming the economy develops as expected, interest rates will drop to 4.25% to 4.5% in 2024 (a total of 4 rate cuts) and to 3.25% to 3.5% in 2025 (another 4 rate cuts), with the long-term neutral rate projected to be between 2.75% and 3% (2 more cuts).

Overall, through this decision and economic forecast, the Fed aims to communicate to the market that while it acknowledges the weakening of the labor market, it remains committed to using appropriate rate cuts to support employment, while ensuring inflation stabilizes and economic growth continues.

Post-Meeting Press Conference Q&A Highlights

1. Labor Market

• Q: Historically, when the unemployment rate rises rapidly, it typically doesn’t stabilize quickly. However, the SEP data suggests that the unemployment rate will rise to 4.4% in 2024 and then stabilize. What is the mechanism behind this? What are the risks involved?
• A: Overall, the U.S. economy is growing steadily, inflation is gradually falling, and the labor market is returning to balance. The Fed’s goal is to maintain this status quo.
• Q: Over the past three months, the average monthly job gains were just over 100,000. Are you concerned about further deterioration in the labor market?
• A: This is mainly due to an increase in international migration, but the decline in job vacancies has also reduced overall job gains, which is the primary reason for the recent rise in the unemployment rate. Some FOMC members have considered the changes in the Beveridge Curve, noting that as job vacancies continue to fall, there may be a point where it directly converts to rising unemployment. We are likely approaching that point.

2. Inflation

• Q: With persistent housing inflation, is it still possible for overall inflation to return to 2%?
• A: Housing inflation has indeed been a drag on overall inflation. Although rental prices are falling slower than expected, as long as they remain low over the long term, it will eventually show in the overall inflation figures.

3. Interest Rate Adjustments

• Q: Recent labor market data has been significantly revised downward. Does this suggest that the Fed is behind in adjusting rates? Can we expect the Fed to maintain its current adjustment pace in the future?
• A: I do not believe the Fed is behind in adjusting rates. We have been taking timely, precautionary measures to respond to changes.
• Q: In the coming months, should we expect rate cuts of 25 bps or 50 bps?
• A: The SEP provides a reasonable reference, but the final rate adjustment will depend on economic performance. If the labor market weakens further, we may accelerate the rate cuts, and vice versa.

4. Balance Sheet Reduction

• Q: In 2019, the Fed halted its balance sheet reduction when it adjusted monetary policy. With this 50 bps rate cut, is there any indication that balance sheet reduction might stop as well?
• A: As of now, the Fed’s reserves remain sufficient. The balance sheet reduction has been primarily managed through the ON RRP (overnight reverse repurchase agreements). At this time, we are not considering halting the reduction. If rate cuts and balance sheet reduction are both seen as part of monetary policy normalization, then both can continue simultaneously for a period of time.

Comparison of the September and July FOMC Statements

The U.S. retail sales slightly increased in August, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau on September 17. The U.S. Retail sales rose by 0.1% month-over-month in August, down from 1% in July, but better than market expectations of -0.2%. On a year-over-year basis, retail sales grew by 2.1%, lower than the previous month’s 2.7%.

The increase this month was primarily driven by online store sales, which saw a monthly growth of 1.4%. However, this was partially offset by a 0.1% decrease in automotive-related sales and a 1.2% decline in gas station sales.

Core retail sales (excluding automotive-related sales) rose by 0.1% on a monthly basis, while double-core retail sales (excluding automotive and gas station sales) increased by 0.2%. The control group retail sales, which exclude automobile sales, building materials, gasoline stations, and food services, rose by 0.3%.

In summary, while August retail sales showed some resilience in U.S. consumer spending, certain declines may have been driven by falling prices. Nevertheless, the market appeared to overlook the retail sales data, as FedWatch indicated that the probability of a 50-basis-point rate cut had risen to 65%, up from 50% the day before.

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