In the Q2 earnings call today (July 18th), TSMC Chairman and CEO C.C. Wei introduced the concept of “Foundry 2.0,” redefining the foundry industry to further include sectors like packaging, testing, mask making, and others, the latest report by Technews noted.

C.C. Wei pointed out that under this new definition, TSMC’s foundry market share was 28% in 2023, and the foundry industry is expected to grow by 10% in 2024, while TSMC’s share will increase further. According to data from TrendForce, under the original definition of foundry, TSMC’s market share was 61.2%.

On the other hand, the semiconductor giant projects the entire semiconductor market, excluding memory, to grow by 10% in 2024.

TSMC’s CFO and spokesperson Wendell Huang explained that the reason for TSMC to propose “Foundry 2.0” is due to the involvement of IDM manufacturers in the foundry market, which has blurred the boundaries of the traditional foundry industry.

Moreover, C.C. Wei highlighted the strong demand for TSMC’s 3nm and 5nm processes. Thanks to the strong demand from AI and smartphones for advanced nodes, Wei believes that 2024 will be a strong year for TSMC. Meanwhile, the company also expects this year’s financial forecast and revenue to increase by 24-26% (mid-20%).

TSMC’s 3nm process accounted for 15% of wafer sales revenue in the second quarter of 2024, while 5nm and 7nm accounted for 35% and 17%, respectively. Overall, revenue from advanced processes (7nm and below) reached 67% of total wafer sales revenue for the quarter.

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(Photo credit: TSMC)

Taiwan’s semiconductor giant, TSMC, faces overwhelming demand for its 3nm technology, with major clients like Apple and NVIDIA fully allocate its production capacity.

According to a report from Commercial Times, orders are expected to be filled through 2026. Reportedly, TSMC is planning to raise its 3nm prices by over 5%, and advanced packaging prices are anticipated to increase by approximately 10% to 20% next year.

The members of TSMC’s 3nm family include N3, N3E, N3P, as well as N3X and N3A. As the existing N3 technology continues to be upgraded, N3E, which began mass production in the fourth quarter of last year, targets applications such as AI accelerators, high-end smartphones, and data centers.

N3P is scheduled for mass production in the second half of this year and is expected to become mainstream for applications in mobile devices, consumer products, base stations, and networking through 2026. N3X and N3A are customized for high-performance computing and automotive clients.

Source: TSMC

Per the industry sources cited by the same report, TSMC’s Zhunan advanced packaging plant (AP6), operational for a year now, has become Taiwan’s largest CoWoS base with the equipment moved into its AP6C plant. In the third quarter, CoWoS monthly production capacity is expected to double from 17,000 to 33,000 wafers.

Industry sources cited by the report further suggests that while AI accelerators do not use the most cutting-edge manufacturing processes, they rely heavily on advanced packaging technology. The ability of global semiconductor companies to secure more advanced packaging capacity from TSMC will determine their market penetration and control.

TSMC’s advanced packaging capacity is scarce, with primary customer NVIDIA having the highest demand, occupying about half of the capacity, followed closely by AMD. Broadcom, Amazon, and Marvell have also expressed strong interest in using advanced packaging processes. With gross margins close to 80%, NVIDIA is said to agree to price increases to secure more advanced packaging capacity, thereby distancing itself from competitors.

Previously, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang emphasized that TSMC is not just manufacturing wafers but also handling numerous supply chain issues. He also agreed that the current pricing is too low and would support TSMC’s price increase actions.

The industry sources cited by Commercial Times have indicated that TSMC plans to add CoWoS-related equipment by the third quarter and has requested equipment manufacturers to dispatch more engineers to fully staff its Longtan AP3, Zhunan AP6, and Central Taiwan Science Park AP5 plants.

In addition to Zhunan’s AP6C, the Central Taiwan Science Park plant, which originally only handled the latter stages of oS, will also gradually transition to CoW processes. Meanwhile, the Chiayi site is in the land preparation stage and is expected to progress faster than Tongluo.

Reportedly, industry sources further reveal that the prices for advanced process nodes such as 3nm and 5nm will also be adjusted. Particularly, strong demand for 3nm orders in the second half of the year is expected to drive utilization rates to near full capacity, extending through 2025. The 5nm process is experiencing similar demand dynamics, driven by AI needs.

Read more

• [News] Major Clients Reportedly Fully Allocate TSMC’s Production Capacity Until 2026, 3nm Process in High Demand
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(Photo credit: TSMC)

TSMC, the world’s leading foundry, held its shareholders’ meeting on June 4th. This marked the last shareholders’ meeting chaired by TSMC Chairman Mark Liu.

According to a report from Commercial Times, with the conclusion of the era of TSMC’s dual leadership, the baton will be passed to President C.C. Wei to lead TSMC forward. During Liu’s final shareholders’ meeting, Liu further discussed TSMC’s future development plans.

• Discussing Operational Growth: Mark Liu Foresees a Year of Significant Expansion

Liu views the demand for AI optimistically, believing that this year will be one of significant growth for TSMC. He indicates that although last year had a lower base, the ongoing surge in global AI and server deployments continues to drive demand for advanced semiconductors in the market. Consequently, he holds deep confidence in TSMC’s future growth.

Meanwhile, Liu also emphasized that they are accelerating investment and future development, particularly in addressing the insatiable demand for AI computing power. Liu then highlighted their approach to tackling challenges head-on, noting that this ongoing process of learning and overcoming obstacles has fostered high levels of trust from their customers.

Additionally, when asked about the possibility of increasing capital expenditure to meet AI demand leading to a slowdown in dividend growth, Liu responded that TSMC’s growth and capital expenditure for the next five years will be continuously reviewed on a monthly basis.

CFO Wendell Huang elaborated further on whether capital expenditure affects dividend distribution, stating that TSMC plans capacity based on long-term demand and is not influenced by short-term economic fluctuations. After deducting capital expenditure, 70% of free cash flow will be allocated for dividend distribution, thus cash dividends are expected to increase gradually.

Regarding the issue of water and power shortages in Taiwan, Mark Liu mentioned that TSMC’s electricity consumption accounts for 8% of Taiwan’s total electricity usage this year and is expected to reach around 11-12% by 2030.

• Strengthening Fab Intelligence: C.C. Wei Stresses TSMC’s Continued Advantage

TSMC President C.C. Wei remarked that 2023 posed significant challenges for the global semiconductor industry. He noted that while the world economy was recovering from over two years of the pandemic, overall, it remained relatively sluggish. Factors such as persistent high inflation and interest rates also impacted the semiconductor industry’s inventory adjustment cycle.

Still, C.C. Wei highlighted that despite challenges, TSMC’s technological edge propelled the company to outperform the semiconductor manufacturing industry in 2023. This advantageous positions them well to capitalize on future growth opportunities in AI and High-Performance Computing.

Wei also underscored TSMC’s pivotal role as a driving force behind the rise of generative AI-related applications last year. He believes that AI models require more powerful semiconductor hardware support, which necessitates the use of the most advanced semiconductor manufacturing process technology.

Additionally, Wei highlighted TSMC’s achievements in 2023. These achievements include shipping 12 million equivalent wafers of 12-inch diameter, with sales from advanced process technologies (7 nanometers and below) accounting for 58% of total wafer sales, a 5% increase from the previous year. Furthermore, TSMC offers 288 different process technologies, producing nearly 12,000 different products for 528 customers.

• C.C. Wei Asserts TSMC’s Dominance

Amidst competitors’ pursuit, Mark Liu emphasizes TSMC’s serious consideration of every competitor, as there will always be competitors regardless of who they are. Currently, TSMC maintains a technological lead, focusing on whether TSMC’s pace of progress surpasses that of its competitors. TSMC aims to progress faster than others and believes it’s unlikely to be overtaken.

C.C. Wei also mentioned that AI applications are vast and in their early stages. Due to TSMC’s technological leadership, the company is in a highly advantageous position and currently faces no competitors.

On the potential expansion of capital expenditure, Wei states that TSMC will proceed with utmost caution and vigilance. The investment strategy in the upcoming years will remain unchanged, meticulously considering capital expenditure plans and capacity planning based on market demand. Whether it will exceed the previous USD 100 billion over three years remains to be seen.

Regarding the cost of setting up plants in the U.S. and issues related to the U.S. presidential election, Mark Liu stated that although establishing plants in the U.S. is expensive, TSMC manages to keep costs lower than its competitors.

He further noted that the fragmentation of production bases is an global trend, with most Taiwanese companies moving in this direction.

When asked whether customers are demanding the relocation of products or production to the U.S. or other regions, C.C. Wei acknowledged that the instability between China and Taiwan is a concern for the supply chain.

While the issue has been discussed, he emphasized that relocating all production from Taiwan, which accounts for about 80-90% of TSMC’s capacity, is “impossible.” TSMC hopes for no conflict between the two sides, as it would raise concerns far beyond the semiconductor industry.

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(Photo credit: TSMC)

On May 9th, China’s leading semiconductor foundry, SMIC International, announced its financial report for the first quarter of this year. It revealed a revenue of USD 1.75 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.7%, and a net profit of USD 71.8 million, marking a significant 68.9% decrease compared to the same period last year, falling below market expectations of USD 76.8 million.

According to its financial data, SMIC’s gross profit margin for the first quarter of this year was 13.7%, not only lower than the 16.4% in the fourth quarter of 2023 but also significantly lower than the 20.8% in the first quarter of 2023.

Per a report from Economic Daily News, SMIC’s management stated that global customer’s willingness for restocking had increased in the first quarter, with the company shipping 1.79 million 8-inch equivalent wafers, a 7% increase from the previous quarter. The capacity utilization rate reached 80.8%, up 4 percentage points from the previous quarter.

For the second quarter of this year, SMIC estimates that the early pull-in demand from some customers is still ongoing, with the company giving revenue guidance of a 5% to 7% increase from the previous quarter. With the expansion of production capacity, depreciation is increasing each quarter, the gross margin guidance is between 9% and 11%.

SMIC further indicated that, assuming no significant changes in the external environment for the full year, the company’s goal is for sales revenue growth to exceed the industry average.

In addition, China’s second-largest semiconductor foundry, Hua Hong, also released its first-quarter financial report, with revenue of CNY 3.297 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 24.62%, and a net profit of CNY 220 million, a year-on-year decrease of 78.76%.

Hua Hong estimates that its main business for the second quarter of 2024 will be between USD 470 million and 500 million, with a gross margin of approximately 6% to 10% for its main business.

Regarding the development of China’s foundry industry, TrendForce previously reported that from 2023 to 2027, propelled by policies and incentives promoting local production and IC development, China’s mature process capacity is anticipated to grow from 29% this year to 33% by 2027. Leading the charge are giants like SMIC, HuaHong Group, and Nexchip. Globally, the ratio of mature (>28nm) to advanced (<16nm) processes is projected to hover around 7:3.

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• [News] Sales Decline Leads to Sharp Profit Drop for SMIC in 2023
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(Photo credit: SMIC)

Wafer foundries’ mature process continues to suffer from oversupply, facing further price reduction pressure. According to a report from Economic Daily News, industry sources from IC design companies revealed that in this quarter, prices for certain mature processes have dropped by single-digit percentages (1% to 3%). Given the current situation, prices in the third quarter may drop by another 1% to 3%, leading to a continuous correction in overall price trends starting from the third quarter of 2022, marking the ninth consecutive quarterly decline.

Industry sources cited by the same report pointed out that this wave of price reductions in mature process was triggered by Chinese foundries two to three years ago, with Taiwanese manufacturers subsequently following suit. Major Taiwanese foundries involved in mature processes, include UMC, Vanguard International Semiconductor (VIS), and PSMC, have all been closely monitoring the latest market changes.

Regarding rumors of further price cuts in the market, UMC stated that the company would not make further comments. VIS, on the other hand, mentioned during a recent earnings call that the price pressure from Chinese foundries has affected its operations, but the company will not engage in these price-cutting competitions. It is expected that as market inventory adjustments approach completion, prices should gradually stabilize without significant fluctuations. PSMC indicated that they have not particularly felt any price pressure.

Local foundries stated that even though customers from specific applications, including driver ICs and other IC design houses, turn to Chinese foundries in order to enjoy cheaper manufacturing prices, they will not engage in price-cutting. After all, price wars may never see an end. Instead, Taiwanese foundries will continue to increase orders from other applications to gradually boost capacity utilization rates.

In the third quarter of 2022, as market conditions reversed, Chinese foundries initiated price cuts, prompting some Taiwanese manufacturers to make slight concessions in pricing. The pricing gap between Chinese and Taiwanese foundries generally remained at double-digit percentages.

To cope with a period of market inventory adjustment, some foundries are more flexible in negotiations, while others hope for customers to “exchange volume for price.”

Overall, foundry pricing has experienced eight consecutive declines up to this quarter. However, with no significant recovery in most end-demand sectors, IC design companies assess that foundry pricing in the third quarter may continue to trend downward.

Industry sources cited by the report believe that Chinese foundries receive official subsidies, allowing them to disregard profit considerations. Previously, IC design houses’ price negotiations with Chinese foundries were mostly successful, which results in single-digit percentage price reductions recently. However, after the third quarter, the room for further price reductions may diminish, indicating that the price seems to be soon hit the bottom.

However, fin order to cope with the current macroeconomic fluctuations, some IC design companies mentioned that after suffering from being “burned” by high inventory in the past, they now tend to wait for clear demand from customers before starting production. In recent years, the proportion of production sent to Chinese foundries has been increasing due to cost considerations. With the continuous expansion of mature process capacity in Chinese foundries, the pressure of oversupply may persist for a while longer.

According to TrendForce’s previous report on the fourth quarter of 2023, global semiconductor foundry revenue rankings showed that the top three semiconductor foundries globally were TSMC, Samsung, and GlobalFoundries, which are all less exposed to mature nodes.

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(Photo credit: TSMC)