According to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) October report, global economic growth is expected to reach 3.2% in both 2024 and 2025, with the 2025 forecast being revised down by 0.1 percentage points compared to the July forecast.

United States

Breaking it down by major economies, the U.S. economy is projected to grow by 2.8% in 2024, an upward revision of 0.2 percentage points from the July estimate, driven by strong consumption and non-residential investment. In 2025, as fiscal policy tightens and the labor market cools, leading to weaker consumption, growth is expected to slow to 2.2%, though this remains 0.3 percentage points higher than the July forecast.

Euro area

In the euro area, economic growth is expected to slightly rebound to 0.8% in 2024 due to improved exports. In 2025, growth is forecast to rise further to 1.2%, driven by real wage increases and gradually easing policies. However, these forecasts have been revised down by 0.1 and 0.3 percentage points, respectively, compared to the July estimates, primarily reflecting weakness in Italy and Germany’s manufacturing sectors.

China

In Asia, China’s economic growth is forecast to slow to 4.8% in 2024, down 0.2 percentage points from the July forecast, due to weaker consumer demand amid real estate sector challenges. However, strong export performance is offering some support. For 2025, China’s growth is expected to slow further to 4.5%, in line with the July forecast.

Japan

Japan’s economy is expected to grow by 0.3% in 2024, a downward revision of 0.4 percentage points compared to the July forecast, reflecting supply chain disruptions caused by data falsification in the automotive sector. However, with rising real wages expected to drive consumption, growth is forecast to rebound to 1.1% in 2025, an upward revision of 0.1 percentage points from the July forecast.

The IMF also noted that downside risks to the global economic outlook are more pronounced compared to the July report. These risks include the possibility of tighter-than-expected monetary policies, increased financial market volatility, rising commodity prices due to geopolitical tensions, a deeper downturn in China’s real estate sector, and an increase in trade protectionism.

(Source: IMF, TrendForce)

In recent years, with the continuous surge in demand for Silicon Carbide (SiC) substrates, the call for cost reduction in SiC has been growing stronger, as the ultimate product price remains the key determinant for consumers. The cost of SiC substrates accounts for the highest proportion in the entire cost structure, reaching around 50%.

This means that cost reduction and utilization rate improvement in the substrate segment are particularly crucial. Therefore, large-size substrates, due to their cost advantages, are gradually being placed with high expectations.

According to the calculation by Chinese SiC substrate manufacturer TankeBlue Semiconductor, upgrading from 4 inches to 6 inches is expected to reduce costs by 50% per unit; from 6 inches to 8 inches, costs are expected to decrease by an additional 35% on top of that.

Meanwhile, 8-inch substrates can yield more chips, resulting in lower edge wastage. In simple terms, 8-inch substrates offer higher utilization rate, which is the main reason why major manufacturers are actively developing them.

Currently, 6-inch SiC substrates are still dominant, but 8-inch substrates are beginning to penetrate the market. For instance, in July 2023, Wolfspeed announced that its 8-inch fab had begun shipping SiC MOSFETs to Chinese customers, indicating its bulk shipment of 8-inch SiC substrates. TankeBlue Semiconductor has also started small-scale shipments of 8-inch substrates, with plans to achieve medium-scale shipments by 2024.

Accelerated Advancement of 8-Inch SiC Substrate Lineup

Since Wolfspeed first showcased samples in 2015, the 8-inch SiC substrate has undergone a development history of 7-8 years, with significant acceleration in technology and product development in the past two years.

Looking at international manufacturers, aside from Wolfspeed, which has achieved mass production, there are seven SiC substrate, epitaxial, expected to achieve mass production of 8-inch substrates this year or in the next 1-2 years.

In terms of investment, Wolfspeed continues to construct the John Palmour Silicon Carbide Manufacturing Center (SiC substrate facility) in North Carolina, USA. This facility will further drive the expansion of substrate production capacity to meet the increasing demand for 8-inch wafers.

Coherent also announced plans last year to expand its production of 8-inch substrates and epitaxial wafers, with large-scale expansion projects in the United States and Sweden. In terms of product export channels, Coherent has received a USD 1 billion investment from Mitsubishi Electric and Denso to provide long-term 6/8-inch SiC substrates and epitaxial wafers to both companies.

STMicroelectronics also invested in the 8-inch domain last year by partnering with Hunan Sanan Semiconductor to construct an 8-inch SiC fab. The latter will accompany it by establishing an 8-inch SiC substrate plant, ensuring stable material supply for the joint venture. Simultaneously, ST is developing its own substrates and previously collaborated with Soitec to achieve mass production of 8-inch SiC substrates.

Turning to Chinese manufacturers, currently, over 10 enterprises have entered the sampling and small-scale production stages for 8-inch SiC substrates. These include companies such as Semisic Crystal Co., Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co., SICC Co., Summit Crystal Semiconductor Co., Synlight Semiconductor Co., TanKeBlue Semiconductor Co., Harbin KY Semiconductor, IV Semitec, Sanan Semiconductor, Hypersics, and Yuehaijin Semiconductor Materials Co.

In addition to the mentioned companies, there are many other Chinese manufacturers currently researching 8-inch substrates, such as GlobalWafers, Dongni Electronics, Hesheng Silicon Industry, Tiancheng Semiconductor.

At present, the gap between Chinese substrate manufacturers and international giants has narrowed significantly. Companies like Infineon have established long-term partnerships with Chinese manufacturers such as SICC Co. and TanKeBlue Semiconductor Co.. From a technological standpoint, this narrowing gap reflects the overall improvement in substrate technology globally. Moving forward, concerted efforts from various manufacturers are expected to drive the development of 8-inch substrate technology.

Overall, there is a growing momentum in the overall development of 8-inch SiC substrates, with significant breakthroughs in both quantity and quality.

Global 8-Inch SiC Fabs Accelerate Expansion

As substrate materials continue to break through technological ceilings, the expansion scale of global 8-inch SiC fabs reached new heights in 2023.

As per TrendForce, approximately 12 expansion projects related to 8-inch wafers were implemented in 2023. Among them, 8 projects were led by global manufacturers such as Wolfspeed, Onsemi, STMicroelectronics, Infineon, Rohm, and others. STMicroelectronics also collaborated with Sanan Semiconductor on one project. Additionally, 3 projects were spearheaded by Chinese manufacturers such as Global Power Technology, United Nova Technology Co., and J2 Semiconductor.

From a regional perspective, significant investments in new 8-inch SiC fabs are expected in key regions such as Europe, America, Japan, South Korea, China, and Southeast Asia. As of now, there are approximately 11 8-inch fabs either under construction or planned globally (with clearer details).

These include 2 facilities by Wolfspeed (in Mohawk, USA, and Saarland, Germany), 1 by Bosch (in Roseville, USA), 1 self-built by STMicroelectronics (in Catania, Italy), 1 joint venture with Sanan (in Chongqing, China), 1 by Infineon (in Kulim, Malaysia), 1 by Mitsubishi Electric (in Kumamoto, Japan), 2 by Rohm (in Chikugo, Japan, and Kunitomi, Japan), 1 by ON Semiconductor (in Bucheon, South Korea), and 1 by Fuji Electric (in Matsumoto, Japan).

Regarding the expansion directions of manufacturers, Bosch and ON Semiconductor’s investments in 2023 are directly aimed at the automotive SiC market. STMicroelectronics’s planned 8-inch SiC chip factory in Italy also targets the electric vehicle market. While other manufacturers have not explicitly stated the application direction of future production capacity, electric vehicles are the primary growth engine for SiC both currently and in the future, making it a focal point for expansion among major manufacturers.

In the electric vehicle sector, the 800V high-voltage platform has emerged as a clear development trend. The 800V platform requires higher-voltage power semiconductor components, prompting manufacturers to begin developing 1200V SiC power devices.

From a cost perspective, although 6-inch wafers are currently mainstream in the short term, the trend towards larger sizes like 8-inch is inevitable for cost reduction and efficiency improvement purposes. Therefore, the electric vehicle market is expected to drive continuous growth in demand for 8-inch wafers in the future.

From a supply chain perspective, transitioning to 8-inch wafers represents a breakthrough for SiC manufacturers. Per industry insights, the 6-inch SiC device market has entered a phase of intense competition, particularly in the SiC JBD. For smaller-scale and less competitive enterprises, profit margins are increasingly squeezed, indicating an impending round of consolidation and restructuring in the future.

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• [In-Depth Analyses] China Advances to 8-Inch SiC Substrates in 2023

Owing to high sales of the iPhone 12 series as well as an aggressive device production strategy by Chinese smartphone brands in response to sanctions on Huawei, which has lost considerable market share as a result, global smartphone production for 1Q21 is likely to reach 342 million units, a YoY increase of 25% and a QoQ decline of just 6%, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. Historically, smartphone production tends to experience a QoQ drop of around 20% for the first quarter as demand collapses from the peak-season level of the fourth quarter of the preceding year. However, the performance of the first quarter of this year is expected to defy seasonality.

Smartphone production for 4Q20 is estimated at 364 million units, while Apple ranked first in terms of production volume

Even though the share of high-end models in global smartphone sales shrank in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Apple was able to push through the headwinds and capture market share by introducing 5G models and adopting an aggressive pricing strategy. Apple produced 77.6 million units of iPhones in 4Q20, an 85% increase QoQ, thereby overtaking Samsung and ranking first amongst all smartphone brands. It should also be pointed out that iPhone 12 devices accounted for about 90% of the iPhone production in 4Q20. For 1Q21, sales of iPhone 12 devices remain strong, and total iPhone production is expected to reach 54 million units, with iPhone 12 models again accounting for about 80% of this figure. Looking further ahead, Apple plans to launch four new flagship iPhone devices in 2H21 and is likely to adhere to its aggressive pricing strategy. Regarding hardware advances, Apple will upgrade its mobile SoC to the A15 bionic SoC. Other than that, it will optimize various existing functions of the iPhone device. On the whole, the four upcoming flagship models can be regarded as extensions to the iPhone 12 series.

Samsung posted a QoQ decline of 14% in its smartphone production to 67 million units for 4Q20, thereby taking second place in the quarterly ranking. Its performance was affected by the competition from the new iPhone devices and the end of stock-up activities that were related to the year-end holiday season in North America and Europe. Moving to 1Q21, Samsung has released the new lineup of its flagship Galaxy S21 series in advance so as to maintain its market share in the high-end segment. At the same time, Samsung has adopted promotional pricing to boost the sales of its latest devices. Samsung’s quarterly smartphone production volume will likely reach around 62 million units for 1Q21. For the whole 2021, TrendForce expects Samsung to top the annual ranking of brands by production. Nevertheless, retaining the leadership position will be increasingly challenging for Samsung as it has been losing market share to several Chinese brands that have risen rapidly over these past few years. Regarding product strategy, Samsung will likely combine the Galaxy Fold series, equipped with foldable displays, with the Galaxy Note series, which offer large-sized displays, into the same flagship lineup. The main focus of Samsung’s sales efforts will still be on the Galaxy A series that encompasses models across the high-end, mid-range, and low-end segments of the price spectrum. To effectively compete against Chinese brands that boast better price-performance ratio for their devices, Samsung will maintain high specifications and a price advantage for Galaxy A devices.

OPPO (including OPPO, OnePlus, Realme), Xiaomi, and Vivo produced 50 million, 47 million, and 31.5 million units of smartphones respectively in 4Q20, which placed them at third, fourth, and sixth places. Looking ahead to 1Q21, the three aforementioned smartphone brands are expected to maintain an aggressive production target and actively expand in both the overseas and domestic markets. Nonetheless, potential growths in their actual production volume will be limited by the current shortage of production capacities across the foundry industry. In terms of product strategies, the three Chinese brands will remain aggressive in their R&D activities for high-end models as they seek to take over Huawei’s previous position in this segment. In particular, Xiaomi and OPPO have been seizing market shares with the highly cost-effective Redmi and Realme series, respectively. Notably, Xiaomi is expected to achieve a better performance in terms of market share for the whole year due to its earlier expansion in the overseas markets.

In response to heightened China-U.S. tensions, Huawei maintained a high inventory of components, which allowed it to effectively mitigate the impact of sanctions from the Department of Commerce. As such, Huawei recorded a quarterly production volume of 34.5 million units in 4Q20, a 21% decrease QoQ. This performance was sufficient to land Huawei in the fifth place in the production ranking for the quarter. Going forward, if suppliers of relevant smartphone components are unable to obtain approval to ship to Huawei by the end of 1Q21, then Huawei is expected to experience a noticeable cutoff of material supplies by the end of 2Q21. Furthermore, after being officially sold off by its parent company Huawei in early 2021, Honor is similarly facing the issue of foundry capacity shortage, which is projected to constrain the production volume of new Honor for the entirety of 2021.

2021 Ranking of smartphone brands by market share remains under scrutiny as LG suspends R&D of new products

LG has been considering either closing down or selling off its smartphone business since early 2021 while also suspending the R&D of new models. This has introduced additional uncertainties into the smartphone market following Huawei’s diminished presence. Although LG was relentless in innovating and developing high-end smartphones in the past, its sales performances lagged behind more competitive offerings from Samsung and Apple in the high-end segment. In the entry-level and mid-range segments, LG similarly fell short of Chinese brands, whose products enjoyed a pricing advantage. As a result, LG’s smartphone market share underwent gradual YoY declines since 2016, finally coming to ninth place in the global smartphone production ranking in 2020. Going forward, LG will concentrate its sales efforts in the Americas, while its market share is expected to fall to other brands, including Samsung, Xiaomi, and even certain telecom companies’ in-house brands.

For the rest of 2021, as the pandemic gradually slows down, the smartphone industry, which provides an essential daily necessity for the public, is likely to make a recovery as well. Given the industry’s cyclical replacement demand as well as demand from emerging regions, TrendForce projects the total smartphone production volume for 2021 to reach 1.36 billion units, a 9% increase YoY. It should be pointed out that the recent shortage in foundry capacities has led to a very limited supply of smartphone components, such as AP and TDDI. This means most smartphone brands have to make do with the materials they are able to obtain, even if such materials constitute a bottleneck in the manufacturing process. As a result, the boundaries between what would otherwise be off seasons and peak seasons will be relatively ambiguous this year, resulting in a smaller magnitude of QoQ growths.

For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms. Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforce.com

Global sales of NEV (new energy vehicles, which include both BEV and PHEV) skyrocketed in the final two months of 2020, with various models setting historical sales records, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. TrendForce estimates total NEV sales for 2020 at 2.9 million units, a 43% increase YoY, and further expects yearly sales to reach 3.9 million units in 2021. However, as the current shortage of automotive chips has had a considerable impact on the auto industry, some uncertainties still exist in the forecast of EV sales.

With regards to the BEV market, Tesla primarily focused on marketing the Model 3 as its key model for 2020. The automaker took leadership position with a 24.5% market share last year, while the Model Y is expected to be key to securing its continued leadership in 2021 primarily because China has issued a sales permit allowing the Model Y to be exempt from purchase tax. Furthermore, Tesla was able to catch its competitors off guard by discounting Model Y prices by 30% on the first day of 2021. Volkswagen took second place in the rankings due to not only the excellent market reception of the e-Golf, but also the remarkable sales figures set by the ID.3 in 2H20, which helped Volkswagen stabilize its market share. Incidentally, as the ID.4 is set to hit the market later on, it is expected to make meaningful contributions to Volkswagen’s overall EV sales in 2021 instead of 2020.

BYD derives its competitive advantage from having a comprehensive model lineup. The Chinese company comfortably took third place with a 6.4% market share. Conversely, fourth-ranked Wuling Hongguang became the dark horse of 2020 by fielding a single EV model, the Hongguang Mini. Not only was the Hongguang Mini attractively priced, but the Chinese government also made a heavy push for NEV sales in China’s rural areas. Both of these factors allowed the Hongguang Mini to become one of the global top sellers within six months of its release. Hot on the heels of Wuling Hongguang is Renault, which took fifth place in the ranking. Renault was able to score a 5.6% market share thanks to its longstanding best seller ZOE. Although other models, including the Nissan Leaf and Hyundai Kona, also posted remarkable sales performances last year, their respective automakers did not place on the top five list because these automakers each had total EV sales that fell short of the five automakers on the list.

On the other hand, the top PHEV manufacturers were neck and neck in terms of ranking by market share. BMW and Mercedes-Benz each possessed a 13% market share, followed by Volvo with 12%. Fourth-ranked Volkswagen and fifth-ranked Audi registered a 10% market share and 6% market share, respectively.

TrendForce indicates that China and Europe are perfect examples of EV markets propelled by government policies. For instance, European automakers have adopted a proactive position to expand their EV lineups as a result of the stringent emissions standards set by the EU, and these automakers have subsequently been aiming to achieve zero carbon emissions or increase the share of EVs in their total vehicle sales. Apart from China and Europe, the US is yet another market where policies may have a positive effect on EV sales. After winning the 2020 presidential election, Biden is now set to launch his clean energy proposal, which includes replacing the US government’s existing fleet with EVs, removing the previously set ceiling on federal tax credits for EV purchases, and offering consumer tax incentives to replacing their conventional fossil fuel vehicles with EVs, among other actions. If these proposed actions were eventually implemented, TrendForce believes they would be able to drive up EV sales in the US.