South Korea’s two major memory chip manufacturers, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, are set to release their Q3 earnings reports (July to September) at the end of the month, with Samsung Electronics also announcing its financial forecast on October 8.

According to The Korea Times, the market expects SK Hynix to see a significant surge in operating profit driven by strong demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM), potentially outperforming Samsung’s semiconductor division.

The Korea Times reports that SK Hynix’s Q3 operating profit is forecast to hit 6.76 trillion won (around $5 billion), with total revenue projected at 17.99 trillion won. If these estimates hold, SK Hynix may set a new record for quarterly operating profit, despite the broader challenges facing the global memory chip market.

On the other hand, Samsung Electronics does not break down individual business units in its earnings forecasts. However, the company’s Device Solutions (DS) division, which handles the memory chip business, is expected to contribute more than half of Samsung’s overall operating profit.

The market anticipates that Samsung Electronics will report an overall Q3 operating profit of 10.77 trillion won, with its DS division’s profit ranging between 5.2 trillion and 6.3 trillion won.

The Korea Times points out that SK Hynix could potentially surpass Samsung in operating profit by 400 billion to 1.5 trillion won, dealing a blow to Samsung’s long-standing dominance as the world’s top memory chipmaker.

There is growing speculation that SK Hynix may overtake Samsung in annual operating profit.

According to Business Korea, SK Hynix has begun mass production of the world’s first 12-layer HBM3E, following its earlier shipment of 8-layer HBM3E to Nvidia, the leading semiconductor company. The company plans to start supplying the 12-layer HBM3E within this year, further strengthening its market position.

TrendForce forecasts that by next year, HBM will account for 10% of total DRAM bit production and contribute more than 30% of DRAM market revenue. Moreover, HBM3E is expected to make up over 80% of the total HBM demand.

(Photo credit: SK Hynix)

Is the winter really coming for the memory sector? Despite an earlier report by Morgan Stanley warning of an AI bubble, U.S. memory giant Micron reveals a financial guidance that beats market expectations, projecting its fiscal first-quarter revenue to reach USD 8.7 billion, higher than an average analyst estimate of USD 8.32 billion, Bloomberg notes.

Meanwhile, Micron expects a significant increase in gross margin to around 39.5%, and an adjusted earnings of USD 1.74 per share, exceeding analysts’ estimates of USD 1.65, according to Reuters.

The growth momentum will mainly rely on the soaring demand for HBM, driven by AI. Earlier in June, Micron noted that its HBM chips have been fully booked for 2024 and 2025.

In terms of the outlook for the overall HBM market, Micron’s view evidently contradicts with that of Morgan Stanley, as it eyes the HBM total available market (TAM) to grow from approximately USD 4 billion in 2023 to over USD 25 billion in 2025.

And the company is making strides in its progress in HBM in the following year. According to its press release, Micron expects its HBM, high-capacity D5 and LP5 solutions, and data center SSD products to deliver multiple billions of dollars in revenue in fiscal 2025.

The U.S. memory giant also expects its HBM market share to commensurate with the company’s overall DRAM market share sometime in 2025.

According to TrendForce, Micron ranked third in DRAM revenue in Q2, 2024, with a market share of 19.6%, after Samsung’s 42.9% and SK hynix’s 34.5%, respectively.

Regarding the latest development on HBM, after its 8-hi HBM3E entered mass production in February, Micron confirms that it has started shipments of production-capable HBM3E 12-hi 36GB units to key industry partners to enable qualifications across the AI ecosystem, stating that its HBM3E 12-hi 36GB delivers 20% lower power consumption than its competitors’ HBM3E 8-hi 24GB solutions while providing 50% higher DRAM capacity.

The company expects to ramp its 12-hi HBM3E in early 2025 and increase the 12-hi mix in the overall shipments throughout the year.

According to a previous report by Tom’s Hardware, the new products are reportedly designed for cutting-edge processors used in AI and high-performance computing (HPC) workloads, including NVIDIA’s H200 and B100/B200 GPUs.

Micron delivered a strong finish to fiscal year 2024, with fiscal Q4 revenue at the high end of its guidance range and gross margins and earnings per share (EPS) above the high end of its guidance ranges.

In fiscal Q4, Micron’s revenue jumped 93% YoY to USD 7.75 billion. Its earnings per share (EPS) came in at USD 1.18, a notable turnaround from the loss of USD 1.07 per share in the same period of 2023. In addition, it achieved record-high revenues in NAND and in its storage business unit.

Micron’s fiscal 2024 revenue grew over 60%, with company gross margins expanding by over 30 percentage points and achieved revenue records in data center and in automotive, according to its press release.

Read more

• [News] Micron’s 12-Hi HBM3e Ready for Production, Targeting NVIDIA’s H200 and B100/ B200 GPUs
• [News] Morgan Stanley Predicts ‘DRAM Winter,’ But TrendForce Remains Less Pessimistic

(Photo credit: Micron)

According to a recent report from BusinessKorea, Morgan Stanley published its “Winter Looms” analysis, following last month’s “Prepare for the Peak,” which warned of an AI bubble. The report continues to take a bearish view on Korean memory chipmakers, citing weak demand for general DRAM and an oversupply of AI-specific high bandwidth memory (HBM).

Morgan Stanley projects that in 2024, global HBM supply will hit 250 billion gigabits (Gb), far exceeding demand, estimated at 150 billion Gb—a surplus of 66.7%. The firm also points to Samsung Electronics’ aggressive expansion into the HBM market as a major factor driving this potential oversupply.

BusinessKorea cited industry insiders who argue that Morgan Stanley’s outlook is excessively pessimistic. They note that the HBM market is driven by customized, client-approved products, making oversupply less likely. Both SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics have publicly stated that HBM supply is fully booked through 2025.

Critics further contend that Morgan Stanley has underestimated the scale of AI investment by major tech firms, which is the main driver of HBM demand. While the report projects that AI investment growth from 10 major tech companies will drop sharply from 52% this year to 8% next year, Bloomberg forecasts a 33.7% rise this year and a 13.4% increase in 2025 across 13 leading tech firms.

Morgan Stanley also predicts that general DRAM will peak in Q4 2024 and begin a multi-year decline through 2026, citing weak demand for semiconductor-reliant IT products. The global PC and smartphone markets have indeed been sluggish, with reports indicating that pre-orders for Apple’s iPhone 16 series were down 13% compared to its predecessor. However, the same report noted that Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have both stated that demand for memory in smartphones and PCs remains stable.

TrendForce Senior Vice President Avril Wu noted that while DRAM prices have shown signs of weakness over the past two quarters, the overall average selling price is expected to rise by 2025. Wu added that as HBM continues to take up more conventional DRAM production capacity, pricing across different products may vary, but the increasing penetration of HBM should help stabilize the DRAM market, leaving the firm less pessimistic about next year’s outlook.

(Photo credit: Samsung)

Regarding the continuous struggle of its foundry business, Samsung has reportedly decided to make another move, as its semiconductor division (DS) plans to undertake a major organizational restructuring within the year, according to a report by Chosun Biz.

Through the restructuring, DS Division President (Vice Chairman) Jeon Young-hyun is said to focus on addressing major issues related to organizational culture, such as the lack of communication between departments and team self-interest, the report notes.

The revelation follows Samsung’s reported up to 30% layoffs in overseas workforce last week, as noted by Reuters. The plan, set to be implemented by the end of this year, will affect jobs across the Americas, Europe, Asia, and Africa.

Citing industry sources, the report indicates that Samsung Electronics’ DS division plans to strengthen collaboration processes by integrating existing team-based structures into a project-centered model, with an aim to resolve issues arising from the siloed operation of departments.

As a comprehensive semiconductor company with a broad range of businesses, Samsung faces quite a few challenges, while the proliferation of business units and task forces leads to competition and friction between departments. In the development of chips or processes, differing interests among departments—such as semiconductor design, fabrication, and reliability evaluation—can cause communication problems, which may ultimately lead to business failures.

Samsung has been fighting to catch up with its rivals, not only in the foundry sector but in memory as well. Chosun Biz notes that the Korean semiconductor giant is lagging behind competitors in areas like high-bandwidth memory (HBM), cutting-edge DRAM, and foundry technology over the past 2-3 years, which may be attributed to this organizational culture.

Samsung’s foundry division has been working out to mass-produce 3-nm GAA (Gate-All-Around) technology for around three years but still struggles with customer acquisition. A report by The Korea Times states that the yield for Samsung’s 3nm process remained in the single digits until Q1 this year, and slightly improved to about 20% in Q2, though still significantly below the 60% threshold generally needed for mass production.

In terms of DRAM, Samsung seems to gradually lose the leading edge as it has started to fall behind SK hynix, especially in the HBM market. In its latest attempt, Samsung teams up with its foundry rival, TSMC, on the development of HBM4, according to Business Korea.

Moreover, Samsung is facing challenges on the DDR5 DRAM market. Chosun Biz suggests that discrepancies between the quality goals set by the development department and the actual specifications of the mass-produced product delayed Samsung’s entry into the server DDR5 DRAM market by more than 3-6 months, compared to SK hynix.

The report took its setback in the 10-nm 5th generation (1b) DDR5 server DRAM last year as an example. The product, which supplied to Intel, failed to meet the promised performance and was deemed substandard.

In early September, another report by Korean media outlet ZDNet reveals that the tech giant might be facing difficulties in its cutting-edge mobile DRAM, as Samsung’ Mobile eXperience (MX) Division reportedly raised concerns with the DS Division about delays in the delivery of 1b-based LPDDR (low-power DRAM) samples, which are intended to be used in the Galaxy S25 series.

A Samsung Electronics spokesperson cited by Chosun Biz admitted that there continues to be a disconnection between the departments developing new processes and those responsible for mass production, with serious issues arising from the shifting of blame for failures.

However, would Samsung’s latest effort work out? An industry insider cited by the report notes that Intel has attempted to make a change through the “IDM 2.0” strategy over the past three years, but solving these issues in a short period of time has proven difficult. He suggests that it is necessary to go beyond just restructuring to fundamentally change the organization.

Read more

• [News] Samsung Partners with TSMC, Its Foundry Rival, on HBM4 Development
• [News] Samsung Reportedly Buckling Under Pressure, with Plans to Cut Overseas Workforce by Up to 30%

(Photo credit: Samsung)

In recent years, the U.S., Japan and the Netherlands, have increasingly expanding restrictions on China in semiconductor technology. South Korea, on the other hand, has been cautiously responding to U.S. demands due to its significant dependence on the Chinese market.

Yet, according to a report by South Korean media outlet The Korea Herald, the U.S. is increasing pressure on South Korea to comply with its export controls to China.

At the Korea-U.S. Economic Security Conference 2024 held in Washington, D.C. on September 10th, U.S. Commerce Department Undersecretary Alan Estevez called on South Korea’s two leading HBM manufacturers, Samsung and SK hynix, to align with U.S. export controls on China. He urged that their production capacity be reserved for supplying advanced chips to allied nations, rather than competitors such as China.

Estevez emphasized his appreciation for South Korea’s long-standing cooperation with the U.S., but pointed out that since AI can be used for military purposes, it is crucial to prevent China from acquiring advanced chips to train AI models.

South Korea’s Trade Minister Cheong In-kyo responded that while they will discuss the matter with the U.S., export controls have a significant impact on South Korea’s businesses and economy.

Some industry sources cited by The Korea Herald have further pointed out that the direct export volume of chips from Samsung and SK hynix to China is not significant, so the actual impact may be limited.

However, per a previous Reuters report cited sources, it’s indicated that about 30% of Samsung’s HBM chip sales in the first half of this year were to China.

The Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade noted that, unlike Japan and the Netherlands, South Korea cannot fully align with U.S. export control measures due to its significant reliance on exports to China.

Per the Chosun Daily citing data from South Korea’s Ministry of Trade, Industry, and Energy and the Korea International Trade Association, it’s shown that in July of this year, South Korea’s exports to China increased by 14.9% year-on-year to USD 11.4 billion, the highest since October 2022. Notably, memory exports surged 89% year-on-year to USD 6.8 billion.

Semiconductor exports saw particularly strong growth, with chip exports rising 49% year-on-year. In June this year, Korea’s memory exports also amounted to USD 8.8 billion, accounting for 65.8% of total semiconductor exports, which reportedly represents the highest proportion in two years since December 2021.

These figures reflect South Korea’s robust performance in the chip sector and the strong demand from the Chinese market for Korean semiconductors and other ICT products.

Meanwhile, due to the U.S.’s strict restrictions on chip manufacturing technology, China is striving for breakthroughs in the HBM field.

The HBM market is currently dominated by South Korea’s SK hynix, Samsung Electronics, and the U.S.’s Micron, all of which are producing the latest standard HBM3 chips.

However, a report from Tom’s Hardware, citing industry sources, has indicated that Chinese companies, including CXMT, have made progress in developing HBM and are in the early stages of production. Huawei is also collaborating with other Chinese companies, with plans to produce HBM2 chips by 2026.

Read more

• [News] ChangXin Memory Technologies in China Has Reportedly Begun Mass Production of HBM2
• [News] Progress Made in Chinese Consortium’s Development of HBM, Reportedly Targeting HBM2 Production by 2026

(Photo credit: Samsung)