As the Taiwanese IPC (industrial PC) market suffered from deferred orders due to supply chain and logistical disruptions that took place in 1H20, total domestic IPC revenue for 1H20 reached NT$105.4 billion, a 4.7% YoY decrease, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. However, given that the pandemic was gradually brought under control in 1H21, the market was able to benefit from strong demand from China’s 5G infrastructure rollout, as well as from expanded investments by Europe and the US in public infrastructures such as roads and railways aimed at facilitating an economic recovery. Hence, Taiwan’s IPC revenue for 1H21 reached NT$115.1 billion, a 9.2% YoY increase.

Regarding the financial performances of the top 10 IPC suppliers in Taiwan for 1H21, Ennoconn secured first place with a revenue of NT$42.95 billion, a 16.7% YoY increase. After its acquisition spree that began in 2010, Ennoconn is currently attempting to integrate its various subsidiaries’ technologies and resources in order to make headways in certain emerging technologies, including industrial automation, machine vision, HMI, and cloud services. Going forward, Ennoconn will cultivate its presence in the EV, smart healthcare, and smart retail sectors.

For 1H21, runner-up Advantech posted a revenue of NT$27.37 billion, an 8.2% YoY increase. While Advantech previously favored an acquisition-driven strategy, the company is now expanding into the smart healthcare, smart manufacturing, and smart city sectors primarily through technological partnerships and equity investments. Backed by its WISE-PaaS platform, Advantech continues to expand into the global markets by investing in overseas ISV (independent software vendors) and SI (systems integrators) in the aforementioned sectors.

DFI earned a third-place ranking in 1H21 with a revenue of NT$5.28 billion, a 25.2% YoY increase. After becoming part of the Qisda fleet in 2017, DFI subsequently went on to acquire telecom and information security solutions supplier AEWIN as well as industrial automation vendor Ace Pillar in 2019. These activities culminated in an annual revenue of NT$8.35 billion, an 18.8% YoY increase, for DFI in 2020. DFI currently specializes in smart manufacturing, smart healthcare, and intelligent transportation systems/infrastructures.

AI accelerator suppliers and IPC suppliers work in tandem to clearly define the AI value chain

IPC products have been widely used in AIoT and IIoT applications in recent years due to the proliferation of edge computing. As such, these products have also become the key determinant of how rapidly industries can adopt AI technologies such as machine vision. At the same time, IPC suppliers’ unique position in the mid-stream AI value chain means they are responsible for bridging the gap between upstream AI accelerator suppliers (including Intel, AMD, and Nvidia) and downstream ISV/SI.

With regards to the upstream AI value chain, Intel and AMD acquired independent FPGA suppliers Altera and Xilinx, respectively, in order to achieve more comprehensive heterogeneous computing competencies via horizontal integration. On the other hand, midstream IPC suppliers have been vertically integrating with downstream ISV/SI either independently or collectively through JVs, technological collaborations, strategic alliances, or M&A. For instance, Advantech and ADLINK are now operating on multi-strategy models as well as strategic collaboration models respectively, while Ennoconn and DFI are operating on M&A-oriented models.

On the whole, TrendForce expects that, as AI accelerator suppliers and IPC suppliers push integration forward in the AI value chain, not only will an increasing number of IPC products based on heterogeneous computing platforms be released to market, but emerging AI technologies such as machine vision will also see increased penetration in industrial automation applications. Hence, TrendForce expects annual machine vision revenue to reach US$86 billion in 2025.

In recent years, notebook computer (laptop) brands and processor suppliers alike have been actively adjusting their product strategies and business operations in response to behavioral shifts in the way consumers purchase and use computing devices. While notebook brands jostle for superiority in industrial design with improvements to their product appearances every year, competition in the processor industry has been even fiercer. TrendForce’s investigations indicate that the current competitive landscape in the processor industry consists of three developments, indicated below:

First, competition between AMD and Intel. Not only are both companies focused on expanding their respective ecosystems, but they have also been aiming to conquer the gaming market by releasing new products aimed at gamers this year. Apart from making headways in the PC processor market, AMD has introduced the AMD Advantage Design Framework.

AMD Advantage gaming notebooks are certified to meet standards of performance set by the company. AMD hopes that this certification system will allow it to generate a more consolidated gaming ecosystem while raising its brand equity. Intel, on the other hand, has been cultivating its presence in the creator and 5G notebook markets in an attempt to become the primary driver of digital transformation in the post-pandemic era.

Second, the Nvidia-Arm collaboration. This collaboration took place for the purpose of establishing an AI-enabled reference platform for notebook computers. More specifically, Arm’s CPU/NPU/GPU product stack delivers such wide-ranging AI solutions as real-time recognition, vibration detection, and keyword spotting. Following Arm’s successful foray into the PC segment, Nvidia will speed up its release of notebook products, including CPUs based on the Arm architecture.

Third, Qualcomm’s cross-sector ambitions. By architecting always connected notebooks* with Microsoft and Google, Qualcomm is now leveraging its advantages in 5G technology to prepare for upcoming competition with Intel in the 5G services market.

As the aforementioned companies’ presentations at Computex 2021 would suggest, not only do these processor suppliers possess their own competitive technological advantages, but they also share the common goal of upgrading their gaming competencies, including graphics cards, graphics technologies, and cooling performances.

Some of their current offerings aimed at the gaming market include the AMD RX 6000M, Nvidia RTX 3080 Ti/RTX 3070 Ti GPU, and Intel 11^th Gen Core H45. Interestingly, the AMD Advantage Design Framework, which certifies OEMs’ gaming notebooks based on the AMD platform, represents the company’s intention to challenge Nvidia’s dominance in the gaming market.

After Nvidia announced its US$40 billion acquisition of Arm last September, the partnership is expected to yield considerable technological synergies by way of the two companies’ AI collaboration. TrendForce believes that, in the long term, Arm Cortex CPUs based on the Armv9 architecture will allow Nvidia to break free from the dominance of Intel and AMD in the notebook CPU market. In particular, Nvidia will be able to cultivate its presence in the high-performance notebook market by combining its existing graphics technology with Arm Cortex CPUs.

Qualcomm’s main impetus for entering the notebook market can be attributed to the fact that the pandemic has brought about a new normal in which consumer adherence to notebook products has become increasingly strong. On the whole, Qualcomm’s cross-sector ambition appears to be on the cusp of victory, given the company’s preexisting 5G competencies and its experience in always-connected applications, advanced camera technologies, immersive audio/visual and display experiences, AI acceleration, and power efficiency for smartphones. As a case in point, Qualcomm is set to release Windows on Snapdragon notebooks as its own 5G *always connected PC platform.

It should be noted that Intel has also adopted MediaTek’s 5G chip technology in 5G connected notebooks featuring “Intel 5G Solution 5000”. On the other hand, Qualcomm is also developing mobile processors aimed at the entry-level always connected 4G/5G notebook market. TrendForce expects competition in the always connected market to generate a fresh wave of replacement demand in the mobile computing market.

*Always connected laptops (notebooks): notebooks that feature modem chips and have a constant internet connection much like smartphones. These notebooks can connect to the internet using 4G/5G networks without the need for Wi-Fi.

（Cover image source: Pixabay）

The rise of such products as automotive, industrial, telecom, and networking chips in recent years has resulted in continued advancements in packaging and testing technologies, and the market revenue of these technologies has seen a corresponding rise as well. Demand for advanced packaging has been relatively strong thanks to high demand for 5G smartphones, consumer electronics, and high-performance processors.

In particular, the mainstream development of advanced packaging and testing is currently concentrated on three major fields: HPC chip packaging（2.5D/3D）, FOPLP（fan out panel level packaging）, and SiP（system in package）. Some of the other factors driving forward the technological development of advanced packaging also include improvements in end product functions, advancements in transistor gate sizes, reduction in advanced packaging L/S, and migration of chip interconnect technology from micro-bumping to hybrid bond.

According to TrendForce’s investigations, the advanced packaging market last year reached a revenue of US$31.037 billion in 2020（which was a 13% increase YoY）and accounted for 45.8% of the total packaging market. At the moment, most packaging and testing companies have successively entered the advanced packaging market, with Flip Chip applications accounting for the majority of applications across smartphone AP, WiFi chips, entry-level processors, and high-end PMICs. Flip Chip applications make up more than 80% of the total advanced packaging revenue.

In spite of continued growth, advanced packaging will unlikely overtake traditional packaging in terms of market share within 5-10 years

In spite of the multitude of companies that are eager to enter the advanced packaging industry, not all of them possess the technological competence to progress in R&D, thus making acquisition the fastest path to advanced packaging success. With regards to technological competence, foundries and IDMs are the likeliest candidates to enter the industry, as they already possess ample experience in chip development.

At the moment, TSMC, Intel, and Samsung are the most well-equipped to do so, respectively. With regards to outsourced operations, Taiwanese companies such as ASE, SPIL, and PTI lead the industry in terms of packaging technologies, while U.S.-based Amkor is able to compete for neck-and-neck with ASE. Although these aforementioned companies are not specialists in chip fabrication, they have an extremely strong grasp of the downstream assembly ecosystem, hence their superiority in advanced packaging.

On the other hand, thanks to China’s Big Fund, the trinity of Chinese packaging and testing operators（JCET, TFME, and Hua Tian）were able to acquire major global players, including STATS ChipPac, AMD-SUZ, and Malaysia-based Unisem, respectively, during the 2014-2019 period.

Hence, not only have the Chinese trio been able to raise their market shares and rankings in the global packaging and testing market, but they have also been able to acquire certain competencies in advanced packaging technologies.

The current market would seem to suggest that advanced packaging has been gradually cannibalizing the market share of traditional packaging. However, as applications including home appliances and automotive electronics still require traditional packaging, TrendForce believes that only after 5-10 years will advanced packaging overtake traditional packaging in terms of market share.

（Cover image source: TSMC）

National governments in Southeast Asian countries, including Thailand, Vietnam, and Malaysia, have been instituting increasingly stringent pandemic control measures in response to the intensifying COVID-19 pandemic in these countries. Remarkably, these countries are all hotspots in the electronic component supply chain, and Malaysia, home to many semiconductor packaging and testing facilities as well as passive component fabs, has now come under the international spotlight as a result. In particular, Malaysia’s MCO 3.0 (Movement Control Order 3.0) lockdown, which was extended on June 1, specifically excludes the semiconductor industry, as this industry boasts relatively high market revenue. As such, packaging and testing facilities are currently operating normally in Malaysia, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations.

On March 18, 2020, the Malaysian government first implemented similar pandemic control measures, under which only about 50% of private businesses were allowed to operate. The semiconductor industry and medical services were notably excluded from the restrictions at the time, given the former’s high revenue and the latter’s critical importance during emergencies. Despite the heightened lockdown of the MCO 3.0, under which only certain essential economic activities are allowed to function, some aspects of the MCO 3.0’s restrictions are relatively more lenient, as this policy specifies only 40% of private business employees must adopt WFH. Incidentally, as previously mentioned, the MCO 3.0 does not apply to the semiconductor industry.

As manufacturing operations and lead times of passive components become constrained, end clients’ procurement activities remain uncertain in 2H21

On the other hand, TrendForce indicates that the passive component market, which is also a key industry in Malaysia, will likely face supply-side bottlenecks as a result of the MCO 3.0, affecting such suppliers as Taiyo Yuden, Walsin Technology, NDK, and Epson. Under the latest restrictions, product lead times in the passive component supply chain, along with the state of the transportation industry (which determines shipping and delivery schedules of passive components), will become key determinants of whether client orders can be fulfilled on time.

In addition, brands in Europe and North America will begin adjust their orders for late-3Q21 in June and July. Notebook brands including Dell and HP are not only expected to maintain their orders for 2H21, but also taking measures to ensure a steady supply of IC components, while Apple will begin procuring components for its upcoming iPhone 13 from the passive component supply chain in July. Although these orders are expected to provide upward momentum for the passive component market in 2H21, the resurgence of the pandemic in Southeast Asia, as well as whether the shortage of semiconductor components will be alleviated going forward, will affect clients’ procurement activities for MLCC (multilayer ceramic capacitors) in 2H21.

On the whole, although the packaging and testing operations of major IDMs (Intel, Infineon, and Texas Instruments) and OSAT operators (ASE, Amkor, TFME, and Hua Tian) in Malaysia remain unaffected for the time being, TrendForce believes that the MCO 3.0 will likely have an impact on the supply and demand of the global passive component market in 2H21.

For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms. Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforce.com

The x86 architecture remained the mainstream server architecture at the end of 2020, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. In the x86 server segment, Intel took the lead with a 92% market share thanks to the wide-ranging positioning of its solutions. On the other hand, AMD saw its market share rise to nearly 8% in 4Q20, which represents a 3% growth compared to 4Q19. Other server solutions, based on non-x86 architectures, comprised an insignificant portion of the market. TrendForce projects total server shipment to increase by 21% QoQ in 2Q21 owing to the release of Intel’s new Ice Lake platform.

Notably, edge computing, which involves low-latency data processing, has risen to the forefront of server applications in response to the rise of AI and 5G networks. Ideal use cases of edge computing include autonomous driving, IIoT, and other proprietary commercial applications, with relevant vendors already scrambling to deliver solutions aimed at these use cases. With regards to architecture, ARMv8-based solutions are the most suitable for edge computing applications in terms of both cost and power consumption. With the ongoing 5G commercialization, ARMv8 solutions have been occupying a growing share within the total shipment of all ARM solutions, and North American data centers have been the most aggressive in adopting these solutions. TrendForce expects ARMv8 solutions to occupy a respectable share of the low power consumption edge computing market in 2023-2025.

With the upcoming ramp-up in production, Intel’s new Ice Lake CPUs will likely account for 40% of Intel CPU shipment in 4Q21

As previously mentioned, Intel’s x86 CPUs are the mainstream among server platforms. With regards to Intel’s server roadmap, the company has started shipping a small batch of Whitley Ice Lake CPUs to its clients in the data center segment in 1Q21, while bulk shipment to branded server manufacturers is expected to take place in 2Q21. At the same time, Intel expects Whitley Ice Lake CPUs to account for about 40% of Intel’s CPU shipment in 4Q21, although adoption by buyers remains to be seen.

In terms of specifications, the Whitley platform allows Ice Lake CPUs to be compatible with the fastest DDR4 standards and therefore provides a major improvement in both data transfer rate (MT/s) and maximum capacity of DRAM supported per CPU. The Whitley platform will effectively increase the average DRAM storage capacity of servers, leading to faster and more advanced virtualization applications while improving data streaming performances in data centers. On the whole, not only does the Whitley platform increase the Ice Lake CPU’s cloud computing capabilities, but it also allows Intel to catch up to AMD’s Rome platform, in turn further strengthening Intel’s leadership position in the server market. As such, buyers will likely adopt the Whitley platform given the increased server demand generated by the post-pandemic new normal. Incidentally, although AMD’s mass-produced server solutions are slightly superior to competing offerings from Intel in terms of specs and pricing, AMD will not make significant adjustments in its upcoming Milan platform. AMD will therefore unlikely be a factor that propels the overall bit demand for server DRAM.

In the competition among server CPUs with respect to the data transfer rate, the Whitley Ice Lake is Intel’s first server processor platform that supports PCIe Gen 4. Although AMD was already mass producing server CPUs featuring PCIe Gen 4 support in 2020, Intel will likely be more effective in leveraging this advantage across the application ecosystem. The reason is that Intel is the long-time leader in server CPUs and controls the lion’s share of the market. Furthermore, Intel aims to synergize its latest server CPUs with the second generation of its Optane SSDs. Working together, they are expected to significantly enhance the computing performance of servers for the applications that will become mainstream in the future (e.g., AI and machine learning). TrendForce believes that the penetration rate of PCIe Gen 4 will rise rapidly in 2H21 as Intel and AMD step up shipments of CPUs that support this interface.

Regarding the implementation of the support for DDR5 and PCIe Gen 5, both Intel and AMD have already begun sending samples of related products to their clients in 1Q21. Intel plans to begin mass production for server CPUs belonging to the Eagle Stream platform at the start of 2022. Since the Eagle Stream is designed to support PCIe Gen 5, it will provide another significant boost to the data transfer rate. As for AMD, it plans to commence mass production for server CPUs based on the Genoa platform in 2Q22.

For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms. Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforce.com