On November 7th, Intel held its “Intel Innovation Taipei 2023 Technology Forum”, with CEO Pat Gelsinger highlighting the healthy state of PC inventory. He also expressed optimism about the injection of several more years of innovative applications and evolution in PCs through AI. 

Intel Aims to Ship over One Hundred Million AI PC within the Next Two Years

Gelsinger expressed that the PC inventory has reached a healthy level, and he is optimistic about the future growth of AI PCs, which are equipped with AI processors or possess AI computing capabilities. He anticipates that AI will be a crucial turning point for the PC industry.

Additionally, Gelsinger stated that the server industry may have seemed uneventful in recent years, but with the accelerated development of AI, it has become more exciting. AI is becoming ubiquitous, transitioning from the training phase to the deployment phase, and various platforms will revolve around AI.

Gelsinger expressed his strong confidence in Intel’s position in the AI PC market, expecting to ship over one hundred million units within two years.

Intel’s Ambitious Expansion in Semiconductor Foundry Landscape

Intel is actively promoting its IDM 2.0 strategy, with expectations from the industry that the company, beyond its brand business, has advanced packaging capabilities to support semiconductor foundry operations. In the future, Intel is poised to compete with rivals such as TSMC and Samsung.

Gelsinger noted that some have viewed Intel’s plan of achieving five technical nodes in four years as “an ambitious endeavor.” However, he emphasized that Intel remains committed to its original goal of advancing five process nodes within four years.

The company’s foundry business has received positive responses from numerous potential customers, and while it may take three to four years for significant expansion, the advanced packaging aspect may only require two to three quarters to get on track.

This transformation marks a significant shift for the company, setting new standards in the industry. Intel is making steady progress in its four-year plan to advance five nodes, and Moore’s Law will continue to extend. The construction of Intel’s new factories is also ongoing.

According to Intel’s roadmap, Intel 7 and Intel 4 are already completed, Intel 3 is set for mass production in the latter half of this year, and Intel 20A and 18A are expected to enter mass production in the first and second halves of next year, respectively.

Regarding this roadmap, according to NIKKEI Asia’s report, Gelsinger also mentioned at the forum that for the 18A process, they currently have many test wafers in production. Additionally, the development of 18A has been completed, and it is progressing rapidly towards the production phase.

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• [News] Intense Competition in Advancing Processes at the 2nm by Samsung, Intel, and TSMC

(Photo credit: Intel Newsroom)

According to TechNews’ report, Gitae Jeong, Vice President of Samsung Electronics, recently revealed in an interview that the company is set to introduce the SF1.4 (1.4nm) process, expected to enter mass production in 2027.

This announcement intensifies the competition in advanced semiconductor manufacturing, particularly in the development of 2.5D/3D integrated heterogeneous structure packaging among the three major semiconductor foundry giants.

• TSMC: N3P Process Superior to Intel 18A, N2 to Lead Industry’s Advanced Processes

Previously, the semiconductor industry reported challenges with both TSMC and Samsung achieving yields above 60% for their 3nm processes due to undisclosed issues. TSMC’s yield was reported to be only 55%, below the normal yield rate.

However, TSMC’s President, C.C. Wei, expressed optimism, stating that current N3 demand is better than three months ago, contributing to a healthy growth outlook for TSMC in 2024.

Wei also anticipates that TSMC’s 3nm process will contribute a mid-single-digit percentage (4%-6%) to the company’s annual wafer revenue in 2023.

Regarding competition with rival Intel’s 18A process, Wei believes that TSMC’s N3P process offers better performance, power, and area (PPA), alongside improved cost efficiency and technical maturity. Furthermore, TSMC’s upcoming N2 process is expected to be the industry’s most advanced when introduced.

• Intel: Striving for the Fourth Customer for 18A Process Outsourcing Orders

Intel’s CEO, Pat Gelsinger, has revealed that the 18A process has secured orders from three customers and aims to acquire a fourth customer by the end of the year. The advanced 18A process is scheduled to begin production at the end of 2024, with one customer already having made an advance payment. External expectations suggest that the customer could possibly be NVIDIA or Qualcomm.

Intel has stated that Intel 4 and Intel 3 processes are similar, as are Intel 20A and Intel 18A processes. Consequently, Intel’s primary focus will be on offering Intel 3 and Intel 18A to semiconductor foundry customers. Meanwhile, Intel 4 and Intel 20A processes are more likely to be used internally. However, Intel is open to accommodating customer requests if they express interest in adopting these later processes.

• Samsung: Commencing Mass Production of SF2 in 2025, Prioritizing Internal Use

Due to challenges with the three-nanometer (3nm) manufacturing process, there have been reports that Samsung plans to shift directly to the more advanced two-nanometer (2nm) process.

According to Samsung’s Foundry Forum (SFF) plan, they will begin mass production of the 2nm process (SF2) in 2025 for mobile applications, expand to high-performance computing (HPC) applications in 2026, and further extend to the automotive sector and the expected 1.4nm process by 2027.

Similar to Intel, Samsung intends to prioritize the production of its own products using the 2nm process. The 2nm process products will initially be utilized for Samsung’s in-house products rather than external customer products.

• Summary

While TSMC’s N3 series currently enjoys broad support, including N3E, N3X, and N3P process series, the move to 2nm introduces new variables as it adopts a completely new GAAFET architecture. Regardless, whether it’s TSMC’s N2, Intel’s 18A, or Samsung’s SF2, each of them possesses its competitive strengths. The industry is also eagerly anticipating the future developments in advanced semiconductor processes.

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• [News] Progress and Adoption of Advanced Processes by Samsung, Intel, and TSMC

At this year’s Qualcomm Snapdragon Summit, the company announced its latest PC processor, the Snapdragon X Elite. With impressive performance metrics, this development is poised to shake up the PC processor market as Arm architecture gains ground, posing a substantial challenge to the established x86 architecture.

At this year’s Qualcomm Snapdragon Summit, the company announced its latest PC processor, the Snapdragon X Elite. The launch of laptops featuring the Qualcomm Snapdragon X Elite is expected in mid-2024, marking an opportune moment for a “counteroffensive.”

TrendForce indicates that Arm architecture PC processors have secured around an 11% market share this year, primarily propped up by Apple’s laptop processors. Industry insiders reveal that, in light of the growth potential in the PC processor market, semiconductor giants are increasingly adopting ARM architecture to venture into the market.

2024 Sees Laptop Upgrade Surge, Desktop Market Shrinks                  

Statistics reveal that the surge in remote work during 2020 prompted a shift in consumer preferences from desktop computers to laptops. Moreover, the ongoing establishment of cloud platforms by businesses in 2021 and 2022 has generated positive momentum, signaling a shrinking desktop market and an expanding PC market.

AI-powered PCs and Windows 12 next year are expected to ride a fresh wave of upgrades in 2024. Therefore, when PCs featuring ARM architecture become widespread, Intel and AMD may not be predominantly affected in the laptop processor business based on the x86 architecture. Instead, the desktop processor segment could face the most significant impact.

Kedar Kondap, Qualcomm’s Senior Vice President and General Manager of the Compute and Games Division, foresees an upgrade wave fueled by AI PCs next year, with further growth anticipated in 2025. It is expected that consumers will lean towards AI PCs for their next computer purchases.

The initial wave of products equipped with Qualcomm’s AI PC processors has been unveiled, aligning with the upcoming wave of device upgrades in next year. While Intel is set to launch its first AI acceleration engine, the Intel Core Ultra, featuring integrated NPU in December, its Microsoft Windows 12 certification remains a point of observation.

In a broader perspective, Intel and AMD are positioned to follow up with the AI PC trend by 2025. This coincides with the ending service of Windows 10 and the gradual implementation of Wifi 7 and 6G technologies. By 2028, they are expected to play a pivotal role in driving AI PC growth.

On another note, a South Korean analyst anticipates that the growth momentum in AI PCs hinges on when Apple incorporates AI features into Mac computers.

ARM vs. x86, Microsoft’s Crucial Role                                    

This is because Microsoft is set to launch Windows 12 next year, featuring the built-in Copilot AI assistant. It will collaborate with operating systems and software such as Windows, Edge, Microsoft 365, Outlook, and the Bing search engine, ushering in an entirely new AI-driven user experience.

Several tech giants are fiercely competing in the AI PC market, with NVIDIA and AMD investing in the development of Arm architecture processors. It’s worth mentioning that in 2016, Microsoft agreed to let Qualcomm exclusively develop Windows-compatible chips, and this agreement is set to expire in 2024. Consequently, Qualcomm may gain a strategic advantage. In contrast, the collaboration between NVIDIA and MediaTek on Arm processors might only begin to bear fruit in 2025.

As for AMD’s foray into Arm architecture research and development, whether this indicates a less optimistic outlook for the x86 market is a matter for ongoing observation. Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger expressed that he isn’t concerned about Arm architecture processors vying in the PC market. From a different perspective, Intel may even consider assisting with manufacturing.

(Image: Qualcomm)

In recent developments, Samsung Foundry, a subsidiary of Samsung Electronics, has disclosed that it has initiated discussions with major chip clients, gearing up to provide services utilizing 1.4nm and 2nm processes.

It’s been said that Samsung being ahead in the production of 3nm GAA (gate-all-around) process, yet not as favored by major clients as TSMC. In response to the comment, Ki-tae Jeong, the CTO of Samsung Foundry, had share his insights at Semiconductor Expo 2023 in South Korea.

According to the Chosun Ilboon’s report, Jeong pointed out that in the semiconductor foundry industry, it typically takes approximately 3 years for major clients to make their final purchasing decisions. Samsung is actively engaging with prominent clients, and results may become evident in the coming years. Also, the company is currently discussing future processes such as 2nm and 1.4nm with major clients.

How are advanced semiconductor processes progressing?

Compared to mature processes, advanced processes are better suited for applications that demand high performance and low power consumption. With emerging technologies like AI and high-performance computing driving the industry, the demand for advanced processes continues to rise. Leading semiconductor companies are committed to developing new technologies, with chip advanced processes evolving from 5nm to 4nm and now down to 3nm, while looking ahead to the possibility of reaching 2nm and 1.4nm.

Current progress from major players:

Samsung
Samsung has already commenced mass production of its second-generation 3nm chips and aims to introduce the 2nm process by the end of 2025, with the 1.4nm process expected by the end of 2027.

TSMC
TSMC is planning to start production for N3P in the latter half of 2024, with N3X and the 2nm process set to enter mass production in 2025. TSMC will introduce Gate-all-around FETs (GAAFET) transistors for the first time at the 2nm process node, offering a 15% speed increase at the same power consumption and up to a 30% reduction in power consumption at the same speed, all while increasing chip density by more than 15%.

Intel
Intel is diligently pursuing its “Four Years, Five Nodes” plan. Presently, Intel 7 and Intel 4 are in mass production, and the Intel 3 process is expected to enter the readiness for production stage in the latter half of this year. Subsequently, Intel 20A and 18A processes are planned to enter the readiness for production stage in the first and second halves of 2024, respectively.

Moreover, industry experts believe that in the near term, Intel will focus on the Intel 3 process as its flagship offering in the advanced process semiconductor foundry sector to compete with TSMC, Samsung, and other players.

Driven by emerging technologies like AI and high-performance computing, the semiconductor foundry industry increasingly emphasizes the importance of advanced manufacturing processes. Recently, the industry has seen significant developments. Intel announced that it has commenced large-scale production of its Intel 4 process node, while TSMC and Samsung are equally committed to advancing their advanced process technologies.

Intel’s Mass Production of Intel 4 Process Node

On October 15th, Intel China’s official public account revealed that Intel has initiated large-scale production of the Intel 4 process node using Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography (EUV) technology. According to Intel, they are making significant progress with their “Four Years, Five Nodes” plan. This plan aims to produce next-generation products that meet the computational demands driven by AI’s role in the “Siliconomy.”

Being the first process node produced by Intel using EUV lithography technology, Intel 4 offers substantial improvements in performance, efficiency, and transistor density compared to its predecessors. Intel 4 was unveiled at the Intel Innovation 2023 held in September this year.

In comparison to Intel 7, Intel 4 achieves a 2x reduction in area, providing high-performance computing (HPC) logic libraries and incorporating various innovative features.

In detail, Intel 4 simplifies the EUV lithography process, optimizing it for high-performance computing applications, supporting both low voltage (<0.65V) and high voltage (>1.1V) operations. Compared to Intel 7, Intel 4 boasts more than a 20% improvement in iso-power performance, and high-density Metal-Insulator-Metal (MIM) capacitors deliver outstanding power supply performance.

Intel 7 and Intel 4 are currently in large-scale production. Intel 3 is on track to meet its planned target by the end of 2023.

Intel’s Intel 20A and Intel 18A, which use Ribbon FET all-around gate transistors and PowerVia backside power delivery technology, are also progressing well, with a target of 2024. Intel will soon introduce the Intel 18A process design kit (PDK) for Intel Foundry Services (IFS) customers.

With the adoption of Intel 4 process nodes, the Intel Core i9 Ultra processor, codenamed “Meteor Lake,” will be released on December 14th this year, ushering in the AIPC era.

On Intel 3 process nodes, the energy-efficient E-core Sierra Forest processor will be launched in the first half of 2024, and the high-performance P-core Granite Rapids processor will follow closely.

Samsung’s 2nm Process Detailed Production Plan

Samsung has already commenced production of its second-generation 3nm chips and plans to continue focusing on 2nm chips.

On June 28th, Samsung Electronics unveiled its latest foundry technology innovations and business strategies at the 7th Samsung Foundry Forum (SFF) in 2023.

In the era of artificial intelligence, Samsung’s foundry program, based on advanced GAA process technology, offers robust support for customers in AI applications. To this end, Samsung has disclosed a detailed production plan and performance levels for its 2nm process. The plan is to achieve mass production for mobile applications by 2025 and respectively expand to HPC and automotive electronics in 2026 and 2027.

Samsung reports that the 2nm process (SF2) improves performance by 12% compared to the 3nm process (SF3), increases efficiency by 25%, and reduces the area by 5%.

Furthermore, reports indicated that Samsung is ensuring the production capacity for products using the next-generation EUV lithography machine, High-NA, in September. This equipment is expected to have a prototype by the end of this year and officially enter production next year.

TSMC’s Mass Production of 2nm by 2025

This year, TSMC has unveiled its latest advanced semiconductor manufacturing roadmap in various locations, including Santa Clara, California, and Taiwan. The roadmap covers a range of processes from 3nm to 2nm.

TSMC’s current roadmap for 3nm includes N3, N3E, N3P, N3X, and N3 AE, with N3 serving as the foundational version, N3E as an enhanced version with further cost optimization, N3P focusing on improved performance with a planned start in the second half of 2024, N3X targeting high-performance computing devices with a mass production goal in 2025, and N3 AE designed specifically for the automotive sector, offering greater reliability and the potential to shorten time-to-market by 2-3 years.

In the 2nm realm, TSMC is planning to achieve mass production of the N2 process by 2025. TSMC has reported that the N2 process will offer a 15% speed improvement over N3E at the same power or a 30% reduction in power consumption, with a 15% increase in transistor density. In September, media reports revealed that TSMC has formed a task force to accelerate 2nm pilot production and mass production, aiming for risk production next year and official mass production in 2025.

To ensure the smooth development of 2nm process technology, TSMC has initiated efforts in the upstream equipment sector. On September 12th, TSMC announced the acquisition of a 10% stake in IMS Nanofabrication, a subsidiary of Intel, for a price not exceeding $432.8 million. IMS specializes in the research and production of electron beam lithography machines, which find extensive applications in semiconductor manufacturing, optical component manufacturing, MEMS manufacturing, and more. The industry sees TSMC’s IMS acquisition as vital for developing crucial equipment and meeting the demand for 2nm process commercialization.

(Image: Intel)