On September 12, 2023, Apple unveiled its iPhone 15 series at its annual fall product launch event. The four models introduced were the iPhone 15, iPhone 15 Plus, iPhone 15 Pro, and iPhone 15 Pro Max.

TrendForce’s Perspective:

• Limited Key Features with a Focus on High-End Models

Upon examining the four new devices released by Apple, it becomes evident that, similar to the iPhone 14 series introduced in 2022, Apple has continued to adopt a “focus on high-end upgrades” strategy. The higher-tier Pro series highlights upgrades such as the inclusion of the new A17 Pro processor (manufactured using TSMC’s 3nm process), a titanium metal casing, and a charging port that supports USB 3.0 with 10Gbps transfer speed. Additionally, the flagship Pro Max model introduces a periscope camera module capable of achieving 5x optical zoom for the first time.

In contrast, the lower-tier iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Plus show relatively modest upgrades. They feature the previous generation A16 Bionic processor (manufactured using TSMC’s 4nm process), and while their charging ports adhere to USB standards, they only support USB 2.0 transfer speeds. The most notable upgrade for these models is the inclusion of dynamic islands and an upgraded 48MP main camera. This strategy clearly distinguishes Apple’s products across different price ranges, and the “focus on high-end upgrades” approach aims to drive up the average selling price (ASP) and subsequently increase revenue.

• The Chinese Market Remains a Significant Variable

Just two weeks ago, Huawei quietly released 5G smartphones, despite still facing restrictions from the U.S. in chip technology. This resulted in a significant gap between the chip manufacturing process used in Huawei’s new devices (SMIC N+2, roughly equivalent to TSMC’s 7nm process) and the most advanced process technology (TSMC’s 3nm) currently available. Nevertheless, consumer response in China has been positive, and there have been reports of Huawei continually revising its new device shipment figures.

Despite Apple’s supply chain diversifying away from China due to international geopolitical risks, China remains an extremely important market for Apple. Apple previously benefited from Huawei’s withdrawal from the high-end smartphone market in China due to sanctions, capturing a significant portion of Huawei’s market share in the country. Even as the global smartphone market faces challenges, Apple continues to experience growth in China’s high-end market. With the strong resurgence of Huawei as a formidable competitor and reports of China potentially banning government officials from using iPhones and other foreign brands, if confirmed, it is likely to impact iPhone sales. Given the various challenges within the Chinese market, Apple’s ability to maintain strong sales performance will be the biggest variable for the iPhone 15’s success.

(Photo credit: Apple)

Source to ChinaTimes, according to rumors in the mobile industry, due to increasing uncertainties in the mainland Chinese market, Apple plans to make India one of the first launch markets for its iPhone 15 series and aims to produce the iPhone 15 series simultaneously in India and China. By manufacturing and selling locally in India, Apple hopes to reduce the uncertainties in the Chinese market.

Reports from ICsmart suggest that industry rumors indicate that as mainland China continues to increase regulatory measures, Apple is also accelerating its expansion into India to mitigate uncertainties in the Chinese market. Suppliers have revealed that in the past, the production of new iPhones in India lagged behind China by about a year, but last year, the production gap had narrowed to approximately one month. Apple is now even more determined to expedite the production of the iPhone 15 in India this year, with the goal of achieving near-simultaneous production in both China and India or reducing the production gap to within 10 days.

The report points out that before the iPhone 14, Apple only assembled a small portion of its phones in India, with a shipment schedule lagging behind China by 6 to 9 months. However, this gap was significantly reduced last year. By the end of March this year, 7% of Apple’s iPhones were produced in India. Foreign estimates suggest that by around 2025, the proportion of iPhones manufactured in India could reach 25%.

TrendForce believes India will become the second-largest production site for iPhone

According to TrendForce insights, Apple is indeed aiming to produce more iPhones in India. From the iPhone 14 series, The company manufactured iPhones almost simultaneously in India and China, reducing the initial production gap between the two countries.

If we take a look at iPhone assembly capacity, there is still around 5% in India. Although Apple plans to bring not only assembly but also key component vendors from China to India, supply chain partners are showing a passive attitude toward establishing production sites there, considering India’s policies, languages, cultural factors, and vulnerable infrastructures.

Foreign vendors will face the challenges above, however, as for Indian local vendors, challenges are mainly on technical capabilities, Therefore the most effective way to enter Apple’s supply chain is to acquire companies/factories that are already on the certified list. Just like the Tata Group did.

Also, TrendForce indicates, that with Apple’s intention, PLI, and the following incentive policies, we believe India will gradually become the second-largest production site of the iPhone in the future. However foreign vendors should be willing to suffer higher costs or successfully obtain any form of compensation from Apple, otherwise the transition process will continue to be slow.

The Indian “Economic Times” notes that with the release of the iPhone 15 series this week, the Indian market has the opportunity to be among the first countries for sales. Additionally, it is expected that after December, iPhones manufactured in India will be exported to Europe and the United States, signaling Apple’s progress in diversifying its supply chain. Apple is already the largest smartphone exporter in India.

The report indicates that Apple has raised its annual growth target for sales in over 200 premium retail stores in India for the second and third quarters to nearly 100%. Apple CEO Tim Cook also mentioned in the latest earnings conference call that the company broke its revenue record in India, the world’s third-largest smartphone market, and achieved double-digit sales growth.

(Source: https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20230912005365-260409?chdtv)

In about a month’s time, the smartphone market is gearing up for Apple’s flagship iPhone 15 series of the year. This annual anticipation leads to a surge in online appearances of models for reference, typically emerging one to two months ahead of the new phone’s unveiling. TechNews, a Taiwanese tech media also acquired an accurate mock-ups mimicking upcoming iPhones, providing an advanced peek into the forthcoming changes in this year’s iPhone 15 series.

• Maintaining 4 Models, 2 Sizes

Similar to last year’s iPhone 14 series, Apple is projected to release 4 models in 2 sizes this year. These include the 6.1-inch iPhone 15 (which some suggest might grow to 6.2 inches) and the iPhone 15 Pro, along with the 6.7-inch iPhone 15 Plus and iPhone 15 Pro Max (which could potentially be renamed iPhone 15 Ultra).

• Entire Series Adopts Dynamic Island

Dynamic Island design made its debut in last year’s iPhone 14 Pro series, while the iPhone 14 and iPhone 14 Plus retained the traditional notch design. However, even the more affordable iPhone 15 variant will undergo a change, syncing with the Pro version by replacing the notch with a dynamic island design.

Notably, due to the adoption of the dynamic island design for the iPhone 15, some speculate that the screen size might marginally expand to 6.2 inches this year.

• All 4 Models Get a ‘Port’ Change

In response to EU regulations, rumors in the market suggest that Apple is set to switch all models in the iPhone 15 series from the previous Lightning port to the USB-C charging port. From the obtained muck-ups, it appears certain that the entire iPhone 15 series will indeed transition to USB-C ports.

• Larger Camera Modules, Slight ‘Slimming’ for Pro Models

Fitting iPhone 15 series muck-ups with protective cases designed for the iPhone 14 series reveals that, while all 4 models can accommodate iPhone 14 series cases, a closer examination of the camera reveals that the iPhone 14 series case slightly interferes with the lowermost lens.

Furthermore, this year’s iPhone 15 Pro series will have further narrowed screen bezels, down to 1.55mm from the previous 2.2mm. Consequently, the iPhone 15 Pro muck-up will be slightly slimmer than their iPhone 14 Pro predecessors, resulting in a slightly looser fit when encased.

Other Speculations

The information provided by the muck-ups remains limited, leaving us to wonder about potential additional changes to this year’s iPhone 15 series.

As expected, the iPhone 15 Pro series processor is likely to see an upgrade to the A17 Bionic chip (manufactured using TSMC’s 3nm process), while the more budget-friendly iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Plus will possibly adopt last year’s A16 processor from the iPhone 14 Pro series (manufactured using TSMC’s 4nm process).

Regarding memory capacity, the iPhone 15 Pro series could see an upgrade from 6GB to 8GB, while the iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Plus might retain 6GB.

Additionally, it’s rumored that the iPhone 15 series’ ultra-wideband chips will all be upgraded to U2 chips, with the manufacturing process transitioning from the previous generation U1 chip’s 16nm to a 7nm process; this is expected to enhance the energy efficiency performance through this improvement.

In terms of battery life, there’s speculation that the entire iPhone 15 series will adopt ‘stacked batteries’ to enhance endurance. The speculated battery capacities for the four models are as follows: iPhone 15 (3877mAh), iPhone 15 Plus (4912mAh), iPhone 15 Pro (3650mAh), and iPhone 15 Pro Max (4852mAh).

As the mass production of the new iPhone draws near, TrendForce, in April this year, raised concerns in the smartphone industry about several design changes made to the 2023 iPhone models almost half a year ahead of production. The industry is closely monitoring whether related components can keep up with the production schedule to ensure smooth execution of subsequent assembly plans. Recently, TrendForce provided updates on the production progress and details of these components.

According to TrendForce’s investigation, two critical components in the iPhone supply chain are causing worries about potential supply issues – the CIS (CMOS Image Sensor) and the titanium alloy frame. Currently, there are still bottlenecks in the production of these components that need to be overcome.

Regarding the CIS, the bottleneck arises from Sony’s supply of the new 48MP CIS, which is expected to be used in iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Plus. This CIS adopts a new stacked design, separating the CIS photodiodes and peripheral transistors into three layers instead of the previous double-layer structure. This poses a significant challenge to yield rates, and despite Sony’s efforts to increase production capacity to cope with the yield ramp-up difficulties, the supply situation does not meet anticipated levels, affecting the initial production schedule of the entire device.

As for the titanium frame, due to the elimination of the pressure-sensitive button structure and the slight adjustment in the opening for the mute switch, the suppliers need to re-allocate, set up, and verify the basic operating time of the production lines.

Additionally, the processing procedures for titanium are more complicated compared to stainless steel, which leads to longer production lead times. TrendForce confirmed recently that the titanium frame for the new iPhone is currently one of the components with lower yield rates and supply stability. Therefore, suppliers have expanded production capacity by 20-30% and are working diligently to ensure that even if the initial supply is tight during the early stages of production, they can respond accordingly, ensuring that the launch and supply of the entire device will not be affected.

Given the supply constraints of these two components mentioned above, TrendForce believes that Apple may increase the production proportion of the two Pro models in 3Q23 to fill the gap caused by the initial iPhone 15’s production capacity shortage. This adjustment, in an optimistic scenario, will only involve shifting production proportions between different models in two quarters, with no impact on the annual shipment performance. TrendForce assesses that this possibility is more likely under the current circumstances.

However, if the CIS yield bottleneck is difficult to overcome, it could lead to a substantial reduction in the shipment volume of the 2023 iPhone models. TrendForce will continue to monitor the situation closely.