Major optical manufacturer, Largan Precision, held its online Q3 earnings conference on October 12, 2023. During the session, Chairman Lin En-ping’s responses to inquiries from analysts conveyed that the previously sluggish smartphone market might finally witness an upturn in Q4, as the iPhone 15 Pro Max’s robust pre-order performance surpassed market expectations. This bodes well for downstream customers’ willingness to procure lenses, and high-end lens demand is expected to rise.

TrendForce’s Insight:

1. Positive Signals Emerge from Largan Precision’s Statement

Since the beginning of 2023, the global smartphone market has been experiencing a general slump, influenced by factors such as China’s post-pandemic economic recovery falling short of expectations, rampant inflation, and uncertainty about economic prospects. Looking back at the previous Q1 and Q2 earnings conferences held by Largan Precision, Chairman Lin En-ping consistently displayed a relatively pessimistic outlook when addressing questions from financial analysts. This pessimism can be attributed to the subdued end-user demand, resulting in a natural decline in procurement momentum among downstream customers, which has made it challenging for Largan Precision to foresee clear future order demand.

However, with the arrival of Q4, the traditional peak season for smartphones, Chairman Lin En-ping provided a more positive response during the latest conference. This shift in stance can be attributed to the better-than-expected pre-order status of the high-end iPhone 15 Pro Max and the subsequent improvement in procurement momentum among downstream customers. Furthermore, there has been a resurgence in overall demand for high-end lenses. It is anticipated that the end demand for smartphones may improve in the upcoming Q4.

2. Increased Willingness for Lens Upgrades

Chinese media reported on the 22nd that China’s regulatory authorities are conducting investigations into Foxconn’s factories in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Henan, and Hubei. This comes at a time when Apple’s iPhone 15 series is in full production and seeing high shipment volumes. The investigation may potentially impact the production capacity of the iPhone 15. Market rumors suggest that Apple is considering gradually shifting orders to competitors, which could benefit companies like Luxshare Precision and Pegatron.

According to Taiwan’s Commercial Times, in response to the recent tax inspection, Foxconn emphasized on the 22nd that it would actively cooperate with relevant agencies in their operations. Major suppliers for iPhone 15 lenses, Largan Precision and Genius Electronic Optical, declined to comment on the situation with individual clients but emphasized that their current shipments are not affected.

Influenced by strong competition from Chinese smartphones, including Huawei, and concerns about overheating issues, the appeal of the iPhone 15 has waned, and the highly anticipated iPhone 15 Pro Max’s popularity has declined. In the Asian market, waiting times for the sought-after titanium alloy casing iPhone have been substantially reduced. Shipping times have decreased to approximately two weeks, while in-store pickup can be as fast as three days. Signs of cooling demand are also appearing in Europe and the United States.

Tech industry insiders note that even though demand for the iPhone 15 has decreased, Apple is still considering expanding its supply chain to be prepared for unforeseen circumstances.

In addition, samples of iPhone 16 components and designs are in the sampling stage, with plans to finalize them by January of next year. The recent tax inspection controversy involving Foxconn, combined with the fact that its competitor, Luxshare, has obtained the assembly NPI (New Product Introduction) for the 2024 iPhone 16 Pro Max, further strengthens Luxshare’s presence in the iPhone business. Its share of manufacturing is expected to increase significantly next year.

Furthermore, Luxshare has already become the primary assembly factory for Apple Watch and AirPods, and in 2020, it acquired two iPhone production lines from Wistron. Luxshare is also a major producer for Vision Pro, representing Apple’s accelerated localization efforts and a move away from its dependency on Foxconn.

Read more

• [News] China’s Tax Authorities and Natural Resource Departments Conduct Inspections on Key Foxconn Enterprises
• [News] Luxshare Doubles Business with 3 iPhone 15 Orders, Breaking Foxconn’s High-End Supply Dominance
• [News] Chinese Firms Rise in iPhone Supply Chain, Enter New Optical Component Line

(Photo credit: Apple)

Source to China Times, as India continues to solidify its position in the global mobile phone manufacturing supply chain, industry analysts predict significant shifts in production dynamics. Apple, for instance, is expected to move 25% of its production to India by 2025, in addition to Chinese brands like Xiaomi, OPPO, and vivo, which have already established manufacturing operations in the country. This trend has led to a scenario where India has substantially reduced its reliance on importing mobile phones from China, posing a substantial challenge to Chinese smartphone manufacturers and potentially resulting in the loss of annual orders for up to 180 million devices.

TrendForce believes that while Apple has such plans in place, the actual execution and achievement of these goals may face challenges.

The typical process of an iPhone involves design work at Apple’s headquarters in the United States, the use of main chips from American chip manufacturers and foundry services from TSMC, key components supplied by companies in Japan and South Korea, and the provision of remaining parts by Chinese manufacturers. The final assembly takes place at Foxconn’s factory in Zhengzhou, China, before the phones are air-shipped to destinations worldwide.

Since September of the previous year, an increasing number of consumers have noticed the label “Assembled in India” on the packaging of their iPhone 14 devices. This indicates that a growing proportion of Apple’s phones are being produced in India. Apple’s plan to shift 25% of its production to India by 2025 aligns with this trend.

Meanwhile, Chinese smartphone manufacturers such as Xiaomi, OPPO, and vivo are also actively manufacturing in India, and Samsung currently produces all of its flagship phones in the country. These developments are reshaping the landscape of mobile phone trade between China and India. In 2014, China exported a staggering 180 million phones to India annually. However, as India’s mobile manufacturing ecosystem matures, its reliance on importing complete phones from China has dwindled.

Data from the Cellular Operators Association of India (COAI) reveals that, following Indian Prime Minister Modi’s “Make in India” push in 2015, India’s share of globally manufactured phones surged to 11%, surpassing Vietnam and making it the second-largest mobile phone manufacturing country after China. Additionally, statistics show that from 2014 to 2022, India’s cumulative mobile phone production exceeded 2 billion units, with a CAGR growth rate of 23%. (Image credit: Apple)

(Source: https://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20231004000745-260309?chdtv)

In 2023, driven by the demand from the repair market and the surge in the second-hand smartphone trend, the shipment volume of smartphone panels is expected to increase by 8.7% to reach an estimated 1.85 billion units. According to further estimates by TrendForce, the demand for panels from the repair market alone is projected to reach 300 million units, accounting for 16.2% of the overall shipment volume.

Playing a crucial role in the smartphone repair market is undoubtedly the iPhone.

TrendForce analysis reveals that half of the smartphone repair market size comes from the Chinese market, with approximately half of that market size originating from the repair of iPhone second-hand devices. When examining the iPhone repair market, models from 1 to 2 years prior to the current year play a pivotal role in meeting demand.

From a component perspective, the prices of TDDI for repair purposes generally tend to be slightly higher compared to those offered to brand customers, with a premium ranging from about 5-10%. However, these prices can exhibit more significant fluctuations based on market conditions, including increased pricing during shortages and more room for price adjustments in times of oversupply.

Regarding panel supply, Chinese panel manufacturers, rather than Taiwanese counterparts, dominate the repair market supply due to easier access to the South China market.

The specifications for repair panels are relatively diverse, with HD/FHD and OLED panels being used in the repair market. Notably, the A-si 900RGB specification, positioned between HD (1280×720) and Full HD (1920×1080), faces slow adoption in the new product market by smartphone brand customers. Consequently, panel manufacturers are prioritizing supply to the repair market. The primary aim of this supply strategy is to focus on iPhone repairs, providing a broader range of specifications and price combinations for iPhone repair services.

According to reports in the Indian media, India has decided to delay the implementation of import restrictions on electronic products such as laptops, tablets, and servers. This delay pushes the commencement date to November 2023. As a result, Taiwanese, American, and Chinese laptop manufacturers are now reevaluating their production strategies in India and expediting their applications for importing electronic goods.
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